The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[STURM]

In reference to Russian partial mobilisation Zelensky has called on Russian troops to desert. Something which just occurred to me is why aren't the Ukrainians conduction a sustained psychological/propaganda campaign to get Russian soldiers to desert? It could be done easily via social media and via broadcasts on the battlefield.

German propaganda in WW2 was quite effective against the Soviets. We know of the thousands of Ukrainians, Uzbeks, Georgians, Tartars, Kazakhs and other non Russian groups which crossed over but it's often not realised that up until the last months of the war Soviet soldiers were still.crossing over; albeit in small numbers.

Something to consider perhaps is that just because a Russian is not supportive of the war doesn't mean he's going to desert. Many are probably staying out out of loyalty to their fellow soldiers or have adopted the right or wrong it's still my country altitude.

 

[SolarWind]

If I remember correctly, referendums were already held in areas of eastern Ukraine in 2014. They led to the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine's reaction led to Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 because it could not successfully resolve the situation by force.
Zelensky himself won his election mainly also with votes from eastern Ukraine, as he named a corresponding peaceful solution in the regions there as a goal.
This hope was disappointed.
In the meantime, many inhabitants have left these areas. But this already began 8 years ago. After the democratically elected Januskovich came under international pressure and renounced the use of state security forces to restore public order, the "insurgents" set an ultimatum.

Volodymyr Parasyuk
" He said that if Yanukovych did not resign by morning, they would go and get him."

Thereupon the then president fled.
A subsequent impeachment of Jan. by the Ukrainian parliament was not constitutional.
Technically, then, it was a coup. In any case, the "state power" was then sent east (the EU etc. had just threatened consequences) to suppress the democratic ideas of the citizens there. The readiness of the Ukrainian army and the will to act against their compatriots were, however, low. Therefore, extremists were recruited into so-called volunteer battalions (e.g. Azov) who were ready to act against their compatriots in the east on behalf of the Ministry of the Interior.

Overview of volunteer battalions:

Übersicht der ukrainischen Freiwilligenbataillone | Länder-Analysen

www.laender-analysen.de

They left a lasting impression.

It is also interesting to follow in the media how the storming of the Capitol in 2021 is classified in Washington D.C.. It sounded different with the Maidan.

What was possible in the case of Kosovo shows the ambivalence of the perception by the international representatives of the states.

Since the areas that are being referred to already wanted to, or have, seceded from Ukraine, I have little doubt about the outcome. Whether everyone really wants more than independence is a question that no longer arises. After all, the will of the population there is based on Russia's willingness to fight, not on Ukraine's tolerance.

The international pressure on Yanukovich was in response to his authorization to use excessive force on protesters. The rest is Ukrainian internal business and no one else's. Democracy has prevailed in Ukraine and produced a vibrant free society. Putin's autocratic tyranny simply has no moral standing to judge its right to exist. You give too much credence to Kremlin propaganda.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

1. I don't understand this debate about this or that media. All should be read and analyzed.
I personally think Russian media is blatantly deceptive, and conspiracy theories are their MO, but I still extract some value from it. For example, their pundits - how they form their debates and what they say, tells us a lot about the political climate of Russia and the thoughts that occur in the government.

2. Western media in contrast is mainly flawed IMO in that many reputable sources are downright incompetent in their ability to analyze information and have practically no understanding of what actually constitutes a subject matter expert. Still, they do strive to give proper information.

3. And the value I get from them is also very partial.

4. So if there is a conflict in versions between western and eastern sources, try to focus on what value you typically get from either.

5. Back to the war.

• The 300,000 conscripts/reservists are a real wildcard.
• IMO, the smart move would be to delay mobilization and focus on creating a few highly capable units out of existing ones. But since mobilization is already a done deal, they could either send them right away to the front, or spend months training and preparing them. In the meantime, the Russian army could prepare more AFVs to equip the troops. Ideally, their deployments would be spread over many months, even years, but that's not how the Russian army works.
• None here needs convincing that morale is a huge issue for Russia. But if yet another wave of reservists will be called upon, the public will see the first 300,000 as expendable by the government, reinforcing their beliefs that they will find their deaths there. Until now, Russia could deny significant losses because it would not specify its deployments.

 

[vonnoobie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573551647170494465

Appears some steady gains and advances are being made by UAF. Advancing towards or into Lyman, and into/towards towns/villages to the South and North/South of Lyman and allegedly towards the East of Lyman.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573550069617344512

Reports that in the South a UAF recon/sabotage group was able to break through Russian lines at Poholy which is stated to be a strong hold. Makes me wonder either A. How good the group was to get past there or B. If that strong hold is more fiction then fact nad perhaps undermanned at present. All conjecture at present on my part but with assaults towards Bakhmut and trying to rebuild the line along the Oskil river makes me wonder if they have shifted personnel from the South to the North...

 

[Ananda]

So if there is a conflict in versions between western and eastern sources, try to focus on what value you typically get from either

This's the point that I also try to point out. Seems you have more flares to point out the obvious. Both sides have flaws, and off course their own bias. However from both sources if taking on more throughly you may hope get more pictures on what's really going on. As for me I just add don't discount one sides, and expect the other one shown more truth then the others.

But if yet another wave of reservists will be called upon, the public will see the first 300,000 as expendable by the government, reinforcing their beliefs that they will find their deaths there.

Both sides still discount what's the real number of their deaths, and both in the end come out with numbers that doesn't make sense. Even though Zelensky do blaber out his casualties when his sides under pressure. Now as he seems think he has the upper hand, he then talk different pictures.

Nothing new tough, both sides are expert liars, but in sense both sides due hinting some kind of real pictures when they are under pressure.

 

[vonnoobie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573719159007072256

Allegedly Russian commanders are requestingto retreat from Kherson and Putin has denied it.

1. If they have requested such then the supplies must be on their last legs and dont see them selves being able to hold out longer then UAF can sustain the assault.

2. Putin taking more and more active role in how the war is operated is a direct example of Hitler and WWII dictating how the war was operated. This is just going to make it easier and easier for UAF to achieve greater victories.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

Back to the war.
The 300,000 conscripts/reservists are a real wildcard.
IMO, the smart move would be to delay mobilization and focus on creating a few highly capable units out of existing ones. But since mobilization is already a done deal, they could either send them right away to the front, or spend months training and preparing them. In the meantime, the Russian army could prepare more AFVs to equip the troops. Ideally, their deployments would be spread over many months, even years, but that's not how the Russian army works.
None here needs convincing that morale is a huge issue for Russia. But if yet another wave of reservists will be called upon, the public will see the first 300,000 as expendable by the government, reinforcing their beliefs that they will find their deaths there. Until now, Russia could deny significant losses because it would not specify its deployments.

They could send the reservists with more military experience to the front line after a short training (2 weeks) and take more time to train the rest. I guess we will see.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

@Ananda Is there any value in knowing the casualties as of right now?

I think losses of AFVs are sufficiently indicative of the combat tempo.

 

[Rob c]

This is true on one sense of more 'brute' political control. However even in west the political control can still happen, it is just the method is done more subtle. Look on how many in Western media potrait Ukranian goverment before Russian invasion, as corrupt and undemocratics (simple googling can shown that). How the treatment of Ukranian opposition being shown by heavy critics even in EU.

My last word on the subject. In the west the politicians do not control the media in what they say, how ever a measure of control is achieved by what information the politicians release to the media. The media and it's reporters are free to question this information at will and do do so. The fact that the media is biased, emotive, changes sides and at times is in my opinion stupid at times is not disputed. but they are free to be so inclined if the wish.

 

[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573551647170494465

Appears some steady gains and advances are being made by UAF. Advancing towards or into Lyman, and into/towards towns/villages to the South and North/South of Lyman and allegedly towards the East of Lyman.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573550069617344512

Reports that in the South a UAF recon/sabotage group was able to break through Russian lines at Poholy which is stated to be a strong hold. Makes me wonder either A. How good the group was to get past there or B. If that strong hold is more fiction then fact nad perhaps undermanned at present. All conjecture at present on my part but with assaults towards Bakhmut and trying to rebuild the line along the Oskil river makes me wonder if they have shifted personnel from the South to the North...

Russian sources seem to disagree about the situation in Drobyshevo and BARS-13. It will become clear in the next 24-48 hours what's going on with the unit, and whether the village is in Russian or Ukrainian hands.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Наступление врага на ДНР: враг пытается окружить Красный Лиман ▪️ВСУ создали переправы и плацдармы на нашем берегу Северского Донца, продолжая переправлять технику. ▪️Враг атакует с нескольких направлений, угрожая взять в кольцо нашу лиманскую группировку. ▪️Враг штурмует Дробышево: Поселок...

t.me

https://i.ibb.co/n6KJ2dp/24-09-RU.png

 

[John Fedup]

I don't understand this debate about this or that media. All should be read and analyzed.
I personally think Russian media is blatantly deceptive, and conspiracy theories are their MO, but I still extract some value from it. For example, their pundits - how they form their debates and what they say, tells us a lot about the political climate of Russia and the thoughts that occur in the government.

Western media in contrast is mainly flawed IMO in that many reputable sources are downright incompetent in their ability to analyze information and have practically no understanding of what actually constitutes a subject matter expert. Still, they do strive to give proper information.
And the value I get from them is also very partial.

So if there is a conflict in versions between western and eastern sources, try to focus on what value you typically get from either.


Back to the war.
The 300,000 conscripts/reservists are a real wildcard.
IMO, the smart move would be to delay mobilization and focus on creating a few highly capable units out of existing ones. But since mobilization is already a done deal, they could either send them right away to the front, or spend months training and preparing them. In the meantime, the Russian army could prepare more AFVs to equip the troops. Ideally, their deployments would be spread over many months, even years, but that's not how the Russian army works.
None here needs convincing that morale is a huge issue for Russia. But if yet another wave of reservists will be called upon, the public will see the first 300,000 as expendable by the government, reinforcing their beliefs that they will find their deaths there. Until now, Russia could deny significant losses because it would not specify its deployments.

With winter approaching and an assumed lull in military action, surely the best option for Russia is solid training and awaiting kit (either domestic or gifts from Xi). Purim’s domestic situation may require something kind of dramatic success which may be difficult now.

 

[vonnoobie]

With winter approaching and an assumed lull in military action, surely the best option for Russia is solid training and awaiting kit (either domestic or gifts from Xi). Purim’s domestic situation may require something kind of dramatic success which may be difficult now.

I wouldn't wait on Xi just yet. Before bed last night seen on twitter an 80km military convoy heading to Beijing and allegations of military coup. Not saying accurate but with amount of flights cancelled in the last day or two (60%+) seems crap going down. With out going into the CCP thing here directly what ever happens if the rumours have even slightest hint of accuracy may have no effect on Russia or could have a major effect be it positively or negatively.

 

[vikingatespam]

With winter approaching and an assumed lull in military action, surely the best option for Russia is solid training and awaiting kit (either domestic or gifts from Xi). Purim’s domestic situation may require something kind of dramatic success which may be difficult now.

According to the internet the Dnepr typically freezes near Kherson between Jan and March. I hope the UKR can clean out the pocket before then, or it might not happen.

 

[Ananda]

there any value in knowing the casualties as of right now?
I think losses of AFVs

In sense of direction of the war, you are right the losses of units and movements in the ground is already enough to shown the condition of the war progress.

The body counts however still important for home ground public and external donations effort on building confidences. This's why in my opinion both sides are master liars on covering the real body counts losses.

 

[vikingatespam]

Equipment losses: other than Oryx, what third-party sources are available for tallying Tank and other losses. Lostarmour doesnt seem to have a SMO page anymore (at least in Chrome).

 

[seaspear]

With regards to recent prisoner swap there was some controversy in Russia of the release of the leaders of captured Azov brigade did Ukraine have any senior officers to swap to explain this going ahead

 

[swerve]

In sense of direction of the war, you are right the losses of units and movements in the ground is already enough to shown the condition of the war progress.

The body counts however still important for home ground public and external donations effort on building confidences. This's why in my opinion both sides are master liars on covering the real body counts losses.

The Russians aren't "master liars". They tell crude, easily disprovable lies. For example, their latest published figure is significantly less than the tally of individually verified deaths from funeral notices & the like, i.e. less than a number we know is both out of date & even if up to date would be incomplete.

The Ukrainians either keep quiet, or give numbers which might possibly be true. You can't point to Ukrainian numbers & confidently say "That's a lie!". You can dispute it, but you have to do so on the basis of probabilities, not proven facts. It's pretty much certain that it's closer to reality than the Russian numbers.

Treating these as equivalent is either a serious error (maybe due to not looking beyond the headline numbers), or possible evidence of (perhaps unconscious) bias.

 

[pussertas]

Why not confront Putin with a referendum carried out in the areas he does not control?

Same questions.

The results of such a referendum would tend to negate Putin's claims

 

[ngatimozart]

With winter approaching and an assumed lull in military action, surely the best option for Russia is solid training and awaiting kit (either domestic or gifts from Xi). Purim’s domestic situation may require something kind of dramatic success which may be difficult now.

Don't think that will happen. Putin appears to have Hitler's disease - thinking that he's a far better strategist than his Generals and General Staff. Rumour has it that Putin refused permission for the Russian forces on the north side of the Dnieper River at Kherson to withdraw across the river before they were / are trapped. Hitler did the same many times refusing requests to withdraw with the most famous being Stalingrad which cost him a Field Marshall and the 6th Army, some 600 thousand troops. If this is indeed the case, then Putin's definitely doing a Hitler in that aspect.

I wouldn't wait on Xi just yet. Before bed last night seen on twitter an 80km military convoy heading to Beijing and allegations of military coup. Not saying accurate but with amount of flights cancelled in the last day or two (60%+) seems crap going down. With out going into the CCP thing here directly what ever happens if the rumours have even slightest hint of accuracy may have no effect on Russia or could have a major effect be it positively or negatively.

I watched a video today on that and the analysis was that it was the CCP ramping up security prior to the upcoming 20th Party Congress which starts this month. The cancelled flights are just part of a pattern that has been ongoing for the last three years. The video is about an hour long. Lei is one of my sources on what's happening in the PRC.

 

[Ananda]

You can dispute it, but you have to do so on the basis of probabilities, not proven facts. It's pretty much certain that it's closer to reality than the Russian numbers.

"Pretty much certain their number is closer to realities then Russian", seems perhaps you do also have 'unconscious' bias. Considering how we debate long before on Zelensky coming from same cloth with Putin, seems we all have this perception of what you claim as unconsius bias.

You say Russian number are crude lies, well the Ukranian also come out and claim numbers that are 'crude' questionable. However if you base the 'truth' only to what Western sources also claim (which we see mostly tilted to what Ukraine numbers), then off course you came to that conclusions.

If you already think whatever the Russian and Pro Russian telegram is simple 'propaganda' lies, then fell free to come to conclusions Ukraine numbers are close to the truth. However looking to what Ukraine claim (especially when they are under pressure on June and July), it is similar exageration and evasion of truth with Russian done in last Ukraine counter offensive in Kharkiv-Izium.

For me, I look to both of them, I got impression it is similar level of lies. Thus has to be seen on how the results in the ground. As Russian evading their true losses after being wiped in Kharkiv-Izium fronts, same thing the Ukranian evading their losses when they are bogged down in Kherson fronts.