The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

Also, a kinzhal/iskander could have done the job much better like in the previous iteration of Russia vs shopping mall.

Readovka

Ночные ракетные удары в Харькове — российская ракета ударила по складу с боеприпасами Мощный взрыв прогремел только что в Харькове, напугав местных жителей. Столб пламени стал результатом попадания российской ракеты в склад с боеприпасами ВСУ.

t.me

This is the strike to Kharkiv claim by Russian using Iskander, conducting in more or less similar time. Judging by explosion it is related to destruction of ammo depo, shown better precision. So they still have enough more modern missiles in their inventory.

However if the target is the rail junction or the factory adjacent to that mall, using Iskander will create damage to that mall. Perhaps less though, then using KH-22 (seems the video did shown shiloutte of KH-22.).

 

[ngatimozart]

You're not wrong. But remember from nearly day one of the war Russia's line has been that Ukraine is hiding objects of military value near civilian infrastructure on purpose. Again, remember the shopping center in Kiev that had artillery hiding underneath. It's pretty thoroughly dishonest to yell as loud as possible about Russia striking a shopping mall with civilians with rockets, when really they struck another target, and one of probable military value. This is an example of why Ukrainian state narrative is not to be trusted. This doesn't lend Russia credibility or excuse them, but it certainly paints the other side in a certain light.

But are Russian claims correct? I am highly sceptical of them at the best of times because the Russian government has a history of being very economical with the truth. We really can't give them much credence. Actions speak louder than words and the conduct of the Russian military in this war is quite disgraceful in anyone's language. Multiple allegations of the commission of war crimes and substantial evidence being found to suggest that really makes any Russian claims of innocence a mockery at best. Yes I agree the Ukrainians are playing the propaganda game too, but that doesn't under any circumstances excuse the Russian actions.

Russia is now a pariah state because of Putin's actions and the illegal barbaric actions of it's military during the war are making matters far worse for it. Yes, war is a horrible terrible business where bad and terrible things do happen, but there is never any excuse for the commission of war crimes and / or acts of barbarism that are in breach of the rules of war and common humanity. You know that, I know that, and every military veteran of most nations knows that.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strikes allegedly against Ukrainian military storage facilities in Nikolaev region.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Ещё одно видео уничтожения опорного пункта и складов ВСУ в Николаевской области, накануне чего, в них были стянуты самоходные артиллерийские установки и танки. Материалом поделился обладатель военного эксклюзива на Николаево-Херсонском направлении - «Херсонский вестник»...

t.me

Russian strikes allegedly against a Ukrainian mech platoon, Nikolaev region.

Херсонский Вестник

#эксклюзив ⚡️⚡️⚡️Срочная новость⚡️⚡️⚡️ Уничтожение взвода бронированной техники националистов в Нововоронцовском районе Херсонской области

t.me

Russian strikes against Mayaki village, Odessa region. It was apparently being used as military storage.

Рыбарь

Последствия прилета в Маяки в Одесской области. По всей видимости, удар был нанесён по складу боеприпасов, предназначавшихся для ВСУ. #Одесса #Россия #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗Одесская область, село Маяки - прилёт.

t.me

Russian oil platforms in the Black Sea were allegedly hit again.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

General Zolotov, head of the Russian National Guard visits Kherson region.

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vk.com

In Novaya Kahovka the car of Irina Makhneva, part of the military-civil administration set up by Russia, was blown up. She is apparently in charge of culture and education.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

В Новой Каховке (Херсонская область) взорвали автомобиль Ирины Махневой, которая в новой администрации занималась вопросами образования и культуры. Махнева не пострадала, поскольку сесть в машину не успела. Пора воскрешать легендарный СМЕРШ, а не этих выпускников ФСБ на "кубиках", который по...

t.me

Cherkasy.

Russian strike in Cherkasy against a bridge.

Colonelcassad

Прилет в Черкасской области. Видео с камеры наблюдения. Удар в районе какого-то моста.

t.me

Colonelcassad

По видео выше https://t.me/boris_rozhin/55183 Серьезно поврежден железнодорожный мост в Черкасской области.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Прилет по мосту в Черкассах. Другой ракурс.

t.me

The North.

Russian strikes in Kiev. One of the targets was the Artem factory.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Утренние удары по Киеву.

t.me

ZERGULIO

Прилеты по Киеву. Полные видео появятся позже, сейчас их боятся выкладывать из-за СБУ. Уже понятно, что в Киеве поражены несколько разных объектов. Также взрывы в Николаеве.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия одного из прилетов в Киеве.

t.me

ZERGULIO

Киев. Еще один ракурс.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

Russian strike hit the Desna training center.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ По целям в Харькове и области нанесены удары "Искандерами", взрывы прогремели в разных районах На Украине ревёт воздушная тревога. За видео спасибо нашему читателю Михаилу. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Повёрнутые на войне

Пожар и разрушения на объекте в Харькове после встречи с ракетой Искандера

t.me

Battle damage at the Kharkov Polytechnical Institute, Russian strikes.

Милитарист

Уничтоженный в результате ракетного удара спортивный комплекс Харьковского политехнического института

t.me

The Izyum Salient.

T-90M in action, Izyum Salient.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

Ukrainian strike lands in Snezhnoe.

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vk.com

Air defenses firing over Donetsk.

Colonelcassad

ПВО активно сбивает цели над Донецком. Источник: https://t.me/nezhurka

t.me

A DNR artillery unit from Kal'mius btln using 2S7s. This is likely a relatively new formation, I don't believe LDNR forces operated super-heavy artillery pre-war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

Allegedly overrun Ukrainian positions around Lisichansk. Warning footage of corpses.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️"️тважные" захватывают один за другим опорные пункты ВСУ на Лисичанском направлении На кадрах - уничтоженная техника и ставшие привычными укрепления противника. Также бойцы группировки "️" выбили боевиков из укрепленного ДОТа, обзор которого мы покажем в следующем выпуске. #эксклюзив с...

t.me

Ukrainian position taken out near Volcheyarovka. The town has allegedly fallen to Russian/rebel forces. Warning footage of corpses.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️☠️Кольцо окружения вокруг Лисичанска сжимается: ️тважные разгромили засаду боевиков в районе н.п. Волчеяровка Спецназ группировки "️" обнаружил отряд боевиков ВСУ, готовивший засаду на наши наступающие силы. Завязался бой. Вместо того, чтобы сдаться в плен и в будущем увидеться со своей...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Ключевой пункт в полукотле взят: Волчеяровка под полным контролем ️тважных! Группировка "️" практически выжгла огнем украинских нацистов из ключевого населенного пункта, необходимого для контроля над трассой Лисичанск - Северск Раньше были Вежливые, а теперь Отважные. (Вежливые теперь...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Военкоры Шилов и Харченко в освобожденной Волчеяровке. Источники фото: https://t.me/bayraktar1070 https://t.me/voenacher

t.me

Civilians are evacuating Azot factory bomb shelters.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strike at Karachun mountain, near Slavyansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России нанесла удар по горе Карачун - господствующей высоте у Славянска, где базируются ВСУ t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Destroyed MBT (T-72B?) near Borovskoe, allegedly Ukrainian.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Captured Ukrainian vehicles, Lugansk region. I see one MBT, 3 BTRs, 5 trucks, and Mercedes.

Уголок Ситха

Z-трофеи. Трофейная украинская бронетехника и автотранспорт, захваченный на луганском направлении силами 11 БТРО. В числе трофеев 3 Бтр-80 и 1 танк Т-64БВ, который стал донором запчастей для других танков.

t.me

Battle damage at the Azot factory, Severodonetsk.

Владлен Татарский

Прогулки по заводу "Азот". (Северодонецк). Видео от подписчиков.

t.me

In Lisichansk it appears Ukrainian forces took a T-34-85 off of a monument hoping to use it somehow.

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vk.com

I count a column of at least 6 Ukrainian MBTs in allegedly Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Колонна танков ВСУ в Артемовске. Фронт сейчас в 5 км от Артемовска.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Rebel T-64BV in Severodonetsk.

Центр Рубеж

Т-64БВ Союзных сил в Северодонецке.

t.me

LNR 6th Rgt distributing humanitarian aid in Zolotoe.

Военкор l Z l Лисицын ZOV-TV

В г.Золотое казаки 6-го полка раздали местным жителям хлеб и продукты. Военкор l Z l Лисицын

t.me

The West.

A Russian strike lands in Rovno region.

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vk.com

In Zhitomyr region a Russian R-77-1 missile was found.

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vk.com

Russia.

Iskander launches, Belgorod region.

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

Пуски ракет по целям на Украине из Белгородской области. Это не сегодняшние пуски если что.

t.me

СИЛОВИКИ

Запуск ракет ОТРК "Искандер" по объектам ВСУ из Белгородской области. Кадры от нашего подписчика. @opersvodki

t.me

Colonelcassad

Свежие "Искандеры" из Белгородской области.

t.me

Misc.

Allegedly Russian Krasnopol' strikes, against the HQ of the 80th Bde, Ukrainian. Note how the UAV watches the vehicles hiding among the buildings pre-strike. Location unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Ka-52s lobbing rockets in Ukraine. But note the later footage where they are using ATGMs.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian M-777 firing. Location and context unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Из американских гаубиц M777 невозможно вести беглый огонь Давно задавались вопросом, почему все видео с боевой работой гаубиц М777 на Украине всегда включают не более одного выстрела, либо представляет собой склейку из одиночных выстрелов. Ответ нам дали разведчики ️тважных, которые узнали...

t.me

First Ukrainian HIMARS use, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Tors and S-300Vs operating together. Location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russain Enisey armored train, Ukraine.

Уголок Ситха

Бронепоезд *Енисей* железнодорожных войск российской армии в зоне проведения Специальной Военной Операции

t.me

Ukrainian, likely territorial defense, a Soviet pickup truck, with a Maxim gun in the back.

Очередная тачанка с максимом

Из описания: "Еще один бандеромобиль украинского националистического фольксштурма на базе "Каблука" Иж-2715 с установленным пулеметом Максима." https://t.me/ChDambiev/17888 Источник указан на видео.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian troop train with T-64s (7?), two BM-30s, MT-12s with MT-LB tows (2?), 11 Giatsint-B towed guns, 8 MT-12s by themselves.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

NATO/EU.

Italy is apparently preparing another aid package for Ukraine. It's allegedly going to include more howitzers, and machineguns.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

But are Russian claims correct? I am highly sceptical of them at the best of times because the Russian government has a history of being very economical with the truth. We really can't give them much credence. Actions speak louder than words and the conduct of the Russian military in this war is quite disgraceful in anyone's language. Multiple allegations of the commission of war crimes and substantial evidence being found to suggest that really makes any Russian claims of innocence a mockery at best. Yes I agree the Ukrainians are playing the propaganda game too, but that doesn't under any circumstances excuse the Russian actions.

Russia is now a pariah state because of Putin's actions and the illegal barbaric actions of it's military during the war are making matters far worse for it. Yes, war is a horrible terrible business where bad and terrible things do happen, but there is never any excuse for the commission of war crimes and / or acts of barbarism that are in breach of the rules of war and common humanity. You know that, I know that, and every military veteran of most nations knows that.

I'm not sure what this has to do with the current situation being discussed. Ukrainian sources reported a Russian strike as targetting a civilian shopping mall of no military value. Further evidence has emerged from footage of the strike that 1) the mall was not the target, and 2) there was a target of plausible military value involved. I.e. the initial claim was thoroughly dishonest, something I suspected all along. I agree, the type of munition used is problematic. What further point would you like to make on this specific point? We're not in disagreement on the overall assessment.

 

[koxinga]

You're not wrong. But remember from nearly day one of the war Russia's line has been that Ukraine is hiding objects of military value near civilian infrastructure on purpose. Again, remember the shopping center in Kiev that had artillery hiding underneath. It's pretty thoroughly dishonest to yell as loud as possible about Russia striking a shopping mall with civilians with rockets, when really they struck another target, and one of probable military value. This is an example of why Ukrainian state narrative is not to be trusted. This doesn't lend Russia credibility or excuse them, but it certainly paints the other side in a certain light.

We both agreed on the same points.

If Russia wanted to minimize the possibility of collateral damage using inaccurate, old missiles, why not fire them at night, where will be presumbly less or no people at the shopping mall? Is there an operational reason to fire them in the day? (time-sensitive targets?)

 

[Kutschera]

But are Russian claims correct? I am highly sceptical of them at the best of times because the Russian government has a history of being very economical with the truth. We really can't give them much credence. Actions speak louder than words and the conduct of the Russian military in this war is quite disgraceful in anyone's language. Multiple allegations of the commission of war crimes and substantial evidence being found to suggest that really makes any Russian claims of innocence a mockery at best. Yes I agree the Ukrainians are playing the propaganda game too, but that doesn't under any circumstances excuse the Russian actions.

Russia is now a pariah state because of Putin's actions and the illegal barbaric actions of it's military during the war are making matters far worse for it. Yes, war is a horrible terrible business where bad and terrible things do happen, but there is never any excuse for the commission of war crimes and / or acts of barbarism that are in breach of the rules of war and common humanity. You know that, I know that, and every military veteran of most nations knows that.

Philosophizing about the credibility of assertions is not expedient. Probability and stochaism are no substitute for facts.
Responsible action depends on an undistorted perception of reality. Unfortunately, not all people are equally capable of this, for whatever reasons.
"I'd rather be carried by six than judged by twelve." This saying testifies to the experience of people in dealing with the truth.
My recommendation to avoid becoming a propaganda victim - The Three Sieves of Socrates!

Russia is a pariah state only for its opponents, and not only since the conflict in Ukraine. It is the same the other way around.
The world public sees this even more differentiated. The terms "Vietnam", "Korea", "Yugoslavia", "Iraq", "Syria" etc. speak for themselves.

In my view, the orientation of Russia's foreign policy and that of its opponents differs greatly. Russia, with its 145 ethnic groups, tends to follow the concept of peaceful coexistence, while its opponents tend to follow the principle of competition based on the law of the strongest.
For me, it has been foreseeable for about 30 years that Russia would have to fight for its sovereignty. The first step was the replacement of Boris Yeltsin by Vladimir Putin.
In my view, Russia could have waited until the threat situation had shifted even further to its disadvantage, or it could have acted preemptively.
The Cuban Missile Crisis arose because the U.S. felt threatened by the planned deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles on the island on its doorstep. Since Ukraine wrote NATO membership into its constitution as a goal in 2014, the countdown was on.

To bring this non-military consideration to a conclusion: I cannot agree with you, my factual situation seems to differ from yours.

I suggest to bring the discussion back to the real issue in a fact-based way.
What is the military course of the conflict?
What could the Ukrainian forces or the Russian forces improve? Which weapons have proven effective, which have not?
What are the characteristics of specific weapons used?
etc.

 

[T.C.P]

In my view, the orientation of Russia's foreign policy and that of its opponents differs greatly. Russia, with its 145 ethnic groups, tends to follow the concept of peaceful coexistence, while its opponents tend to follow the principle of competition based on the law of the strongest.
For me, it has been foreseeable for about 30 years that Russia would have to fight for its sovereignty. The first step was the replacement of Boris Yeltsin by Vladimir Putin.

What? please elaborate. Russia has had plenty of problem with its ethnic minorities, granted, I like their style of granting relative autonomity to larger ethic enclaves, but that is something they learned the hard way. Thier 'opponents' as you put it, seem better to me at handling their ethnic groups. The UK does a better job at treating and dealing with their racial and religious minorities than Russia does.

 

[Rob c]

MSN

www.msn.com

The above is an article from MSN news with a photo of the alleged missile that struck the shopping mall. I am not an expert on these, so could some one identify it please. It also shows that if this is the missile that hit the shopping mall, that it is still intact and was not shot down, which was an earlier RU claim of why it hit a shopping mall

 

[Feanor]

We have reports that the Lisichansk oil refinery has fallen. This is a continuation of the push out of Ray Aleksandrovka. Volcheyarovka was reported fallen sooner. This threatens the road Lisichansk-Seversk directly. Now the only "good" way out of Lisichansk is through Belogorvka.

Освобожден Лисичанский НПЗ

Наши войска освободили Лисичанский НПЗ. Военкоры Харченко и Шилов сегодня уже зашли на территорию предприятия. До замыкания Лисичанского котла осталось несколько километров. В самом Лисичанске также продолжаются бои.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

plWe both agreed on the same points.

If Russia wanted to minimize the possibility of collateral damage using inaccurate, old missiles, why not fire them at night, where will be presumbly less or no people at the shopping mall? Is there an operational reason to fire them in the day? (time-sensitive targets?)

All good questions. Perhaps there was cargo sitting there that they were worried would be moved? Perhaps civilian casualties simply weren't a major concern? I don't know.

MSN

www.msn.com

The above is an article from MSN news with a photo of the alleged missile that struck the shopping mall. I am not an expert on these, so could some one identify it please. It also shows that if this is the missile that hit the shopping mall, that it is still intact and was not shot down, which was an earlier RU claim of why it hit a shopping mall

Please read the thread. This has been discuss in detail, including the missile type.

 

[Aerojoe]

Philosophizing about the credibility of assertions is not expedient. Probability and stochaism are no substitute for facts.
Responsible action depends on an undistorted perception of reality. Unfortunately, not all people are equally capable of this, for whatever reasons.
"I'd rather be carried by six than judged by twelve." This saying testifies to the experience of people in dealing with the truth.
My recommendation to avoid becoming a propaganda victim - The Three Sieves of Socrates!

Russia is a pariah state only for its opponents, and not only since the conflict in Ukraine. It is the same the other way around.
The world public sees this even more differentiated. The terms "Vietnam", "Korea", "Yugoslavia", "Iraq", "Syria" etc. speak for themselves.

In my view, the orientation of Russia's foreign policy and that of its opponents differs greatly. Russia, with its 145 ethnic groups, tends to follow the concept of peaceful coexistence, while its opponents tend to follow the principle of competition based on the law of the strongest.
For me, it has been foreseeable for about 30 years that Russia would have to fight for its sovereignty. The first step was the replacement of Boris Yeltsin by Vladimir Putin.
In my view, Russia could have waited until the threat situation had shifted even further to its disadvantage, or it could have acted preemptively.
The Cuban Missile Crisis arose because the U.S. felt threatened by the planned deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles on the island on its doorstep. Since Ukraine wrote NATO membership into its constitution as a goal in 2014, the countdown was on.

To bring this non-military consideration to a conclusion: I cannot agree with you, my factual situation seems to differ from yours.

I suggest to bring the discussion back to the real issue in a fact-based way.
What is the military course of the conflict?
What could the Ukrainian forces or the Russian forces improve? Which weapons have proven effective, which have not?
What are the characteristics of specific weapons used?
etc.

I’m sorry, “peaceful coexistence”! Clearly you have a different definition of the meaning to me. I would be interested in the examples of Russian state actions that promote and support peaceful coexistence of differing religious, ethnic and political belief. I’m sure the LGBGTQ community in Rusdia would have a different experience.

 

[seaspear]

I’m sorry, “peaceful coexistence”! Clearly you have a different definition of the meaning to me. I would be interested in the examples of Russian state actions that promote and support peaceful coexistence of differing religious, ethnic and political belief. I’m sure the LGBGTQ community in Rusdia would have a different experience.

not just minorities have their rights reduced
Inside the fight over Russia’s domestic violence law | openDemocracy
apologies to everyone for going off thread

 

[Feanor]

Let's move discussion regarding Russian relations with the west and the implications of Russian policy for geostrategic security to the Russia and the West thread please. This thread is for the specific war in Ukraine. If you believe Russia's stance on LGBT rights or ethnic minorities has direct relevance to the course of this war, be prepared to show how.

 

[Feanor]

The largest POW exchange yet, 144 for 144 took place in Zaporozhye region. Among the exchanged were some wounded Azov fighters, and some DNR fighters. Pushilin claims they were all DNR but I'm skeptical. Overall this section of front remains the quietest, since the Ukrainian counter-offensive at Gulyaypole failed, and it remains the spot where the most POW exchanges take place.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Кадры с переданными ВСУшниками и нациками из "Азова".

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фото обмена военнопленными в Запорожье. Опять с нашей стороны уже привычное информационное запаздывание с освещением (опять военкоров к Путину засылать?). Можно отметить, что действительно, среди обмениваемых много раненых.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Philosophizing about the credibility of assertions is not expedient. Probability and stochaism are no substitute for facts.
Responsible action depends on an undistorted perception of reality. Unfortunately, not all people are equally capable of this, for whatever reasons.
"I'd rather be carried by six than judged by twelve." This saying testifies to the experience of people in dealing with the truth.
My recommendation to avoid becoming a propaganda victim - The Three Sieves of Socrates!

Russia is a pariah state only for its opponents, and not only since the conflict in Ukraine. It is the same the other way around.
The world public sees this even more differentiated. The terms "Vietnam", "Korea", "Yugoslavia", "Iraq", "Syria" etc. speak for themselves.

In my view, the orientation of Russia's foreign policy and that of its opponents differs greatly. Russia, with its 145 ethnic groups, tends to follow the concept of peaceful coexistence, while its opponents tend to follow the principle of competition based on the law of the strongest.
For me, it has been foreseeable for about 30 years that Russia would have to fight for its sovereignty. The first step was the replacement of Boris Yeltsin by Vladimir Putin.
In my view, Russia could have waited until the threat situation had shifted even further to its disadvantage, or it could have acted preemptively.
The Cuban Missile Crisis arose because the U.S. felt threatened by the planned deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles on the island on its doorstep. Since Ukraine wrote NATO membership into its constitution as a goal in 2014, the countdown was on.

To bring this non-military consideration to a conclusion: I cannot agree with you, my factual situation seems to differ from yours.

I suggest to bring the discussion back to the real issue in a fact-based way.
What is the military course of the conflict?
What could the Ukrainian forces or the Russian forces improve? Which weapons have proven effective, which have not?
What are the characteristics of specific weapons used?
etc.

Keeping in mind my fellow Moderator's post here I will reply and then it is finished.

Credibility of assertions, as you put is very important and it is one of the reasons why we insist on sources here. Sources enable members to assess the validity of the material. Philosophy is very important because it asks questions. You cite Socrates, and he was well known for answering a question with a question. In fact he was always asking questions. That's what annoyed people. It was one of the reasons why he was executed.

You want to speak about facts then we have to define what a fact is, followed by a definition of what truth is. That creates a conundrum because it depends what philosophical belief you adhere to. I am a scientist and in science there are no truths, few laws and facts are specific and verifiable. We deal in ideas, postulations, theories, proofs, and probabilities. I sometimes use the term "the probability exists" which is a way of saying something is possible but we're unsure how possible. I am also a military veteran, served during and after the Cold War, and I have been researching the defence and security field for years. So I understand the propaganda aspect very well. What you want is not what you may not get either because the universe and life get in the way.

This discussion is now closed.

 

[swerve]

I'm not sure what this has to do with the current situation being discussed. Ukrainian sources reported a Russian strike as targetting a civilian shopping mall of no military value. Further evidence has emerged from footage of the strike that 1) the mall was not the target, and 2) there was a target of plausible military value involved. I.e. the initial claim was thoroughly dishonest, something I suspected all along. I agree, the type of munition used is problematic. What further point would you like to make on this specific point? We're not in disagreement on the overall assessment.

The claim that the shopping centre was the intended target may well have been false, but as far as I can see, the Russian response has been a flood of sometimes contradictory claims which are even more false. For example, that the shops were not hit by a missile, but debris & exploding munitions from a weapons warehouse (which mysteriously missed everything between it & the shopping centre), that the mall wasn't hit by anything & the whole thing was staged by the Ukrainians, that it was empty at the time, that it had been closed for some time . . . .

There's a problem here. Russian claims are often so blatantly false (e.g. frequently contradicting each other) that it seems reasonable to reject every Russian claim unless supported by independent evidence, but that often leaves us with only Ukrainian sources. They tend to be less incredible, usually having at least the merit of internal consistency, so if one was forced to make a choice, it would seem logical to plump for the Ukrainian narrative, but we know they're also unreliable. Luckily, we're not forced to make that choice.

Better, of course, to approach both with skepticism.

In this case, as far as I can see, the Russians attacked Kremenchug with two missiles, at least one of which looked very much like a Kh-22 (AS-4). That one struck by a factory, doing some (how much?) damage. The other landed about 500 metres away, hitting a shopping centre outside the perimeter of the industrial area containing the factory, on the other side of a railway.

From what was hit, we can't reliably deduce intentions. Maybe they were both aimed at the factory. Maybe they both hit their targets, but the shopping centre was mistaken for a factory or weapons store.

Overall the Ukrainian version seems to fit the verifiable facts except the attribution of intent by the Russians to hit the shopping centre, & the Russian versions are a mess which are impossible to believe. Perhaps they're intended to confuse.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Ukraine pushes Russian forces from strategic Snake Island

Winning back vital Black Sea landmass could weaken any future Russia coastal land attack

www.theguardian.com

Ukrainian forces say they have pushed Russian forces from Snake Island, a strategic Black Sea landmass off the southern coast near the city of Odesa. Ukraine’s reported recapture of the island weakens any potential plans Russia may have for a future land attack on that stretch of coastline.

Russia’s ministry of defence stated that it had completed its assigned tasks and was tactically withdrawing to allow for grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

A clear win for the Ukrainians. I doubt Russia would have voluntarily given up the island unless its position there was becoming untenable.

Russia's story that they gave up the island to allow grain exports makes no sense, as they could have agreed a way for grain-carrying ships to be given protection, even an escort. The UN would have gladly stepped in to help identify and monitor such vessels. Seems to me like a thinly veiled attempt to make them look like the good guys and cover up what can only be explained as a military defeat.

 

[STURM]

I doubt Russia would have voluntarily given up the island unless its position there was becoming untenable.

Or possibly because they finally got around to realising that holding on to it leads to to no tangible benefits and is a drain on resources. Whatever the reason it's rightly seen as a defeat.

as they could have agreed a way for grain-carrying ships to be given protection, even an escort. The UN would have gladly stepped in to help identify and monitor such vessels.

The UN would still need the participation of various navies which would have to be acceptable to both Russia and the Ukraine. Not only that but the area would have to be swept of mines. Which countries would be willing to commit their navies to such a high risk endeavour is the question.

 

[STURM]

the Russian response has been a flood of sometimes contradictory claims which are even more false.

Like with the case of Bucha. Instead of an outright denial what Russia should have done was to announce that it condemns such actions; that it doubts it troops committed the atrocities and that an investigation would be done.

As it stands the Ukrainians have won the information war and it has the support and sympathy of the world [or most of the world]; the widely held assumption is that they are to be trusted; unlike the Russians; that they're not as economical with the truth.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Which countries would be willing to commit their navies to such a high risk endeavour is the question.

I don't think even Russia would say it was going to let a UN-organised convoy through and attack it. Similarly the Ukrainians would be falling over themselves to suspend maritime attacks to get grain shipments out, and all the cash that they'd get in return. There isn't a lot of trust between the two countries, but it would at least be worth exploring such a plan.

A risk yes, but we're talking about the real risk of mass starvation happening in many countries due to the interdiction of food supplies. If no country in the world was willing to risk its personnel for humanitarian efforts, that would be a black day indeed.

(Of course if Russia refused to let any NATO country take part and only nations with obsolete vessels without proper defensive systems or only Russian ships could participate for propaganda reasons, that might be different. But we're not there yet.)

 

[koxinga]

The UN would still need the participation of various navies which would have to be acceptable to both Russia and the Ukraine. Not only that but the area would have to be swept of mines. Which countries would be willing to commit their navies to such a high risk endeavour is the question.

I don't think even Russia would say it was going to let a UN-organised convoy through and attack it. Similarly the Ukrainians would be falling over themselves to suspend maritime attacks to get grain shipments out, and all the cash that they'd get in return.

A risk yes, but we're talking about the real risk of mass starvation happening in many countries due to the interdiction of food supplies. If no country in the world was willing to risk its personnel for humanitarian efforts, that would be a black day indeed.

(Of course if Russia refused to let any NATO country take part and only nations with obsolete vessels without proper defensive systems or only Russian ships could participate for propaganda reasons, that might be different. But we're not there yet.)

Don't think the Turks would have allowed the transit of NATO military vessels at this stage through the Bosphorus to the Black Sea.

The Montreux Convention Article 19, technically only bars belligent states (which means Ukraine and Russia) which would exclude NATO but they seem want to keep everyone (military) out just to maintain the neutral stance.

https://cil.nus.edu.sg/to-close-or-not-to-close-the-turkish-straits-under-article-19-of-the-1936-montreux-convention-regarding-the-regime-of-the-straits/