The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM · Jun 30, 2022

Musashi_kenshin said:
If no country in the world was willing to risk its personnel for humanitarian efforts, that would be a black day indeed

After two World Wars; dozens of Cold War wars and dozens of post Cold War wars in Africa, Europe and the Middle East; all which have led to mass suffering; my view is that in this day age if any country comes to the point where it's convinced that only military action is the answer; it's a "black day". It's a reminder of how flawed the human race is and incapable of learning from the past.

Musashi_kenshin said:
Of course if Russia refused to let any NATO country take part and only nations with obsolete vessels without proper defensive systems or only Russian ships could participate for propaganda reasons, that might be different.

It would have to be countries politically acceptable to both Russia and the Ukraine with navies which have a decent MCM capability and are willing to take the risk. It's a war zone. Both sides might want this exercise to work but there are still risks.

What happens if a merchant ship hits a mine [do the Ukrainians have GPS coordinates of every mine they've laid and are some adrift] or if an escorting naval ship is hit by shore based arty with the Ukraine blaming Russia and vice versa? What happens if Russia claims that a merchant ship which has docked at Odessa to ostensibly be loaded with grain has also offloaded ammunition?

Ananda · Jun 30, 2022

If any naval convoy agreed upon by both Ukraine and Russia, the big potential is Turkey. Potential some Middle East like Egypt or Israel also possible (but both have to work with Turkey, which can create another issue). UK, and US will try to get in, but don't think will happen.

Russia actually now put the card back to Ukraine to clear their mine field. If Ukraine don't want to do it, then Russia can say the blame on weaponise food is in Ukraine hand, and not theirs.

Feanor · Jun 30, 2022

Musashi_kenshin said:
Ukraine pushes Russian forces from strategic Snake Island

Winning back vital Black Sea landmass could weaken any future Russia coastal land attack

www.theguardian.com

A clear win for the Ukrainians. I doubt Russia would have voluntarily given up the island unless its position there was becoming untenable.

Russia's story that they gave up the island to allow grain exports makes no sense, as they could have agreed a way for grain-carrying ships to be given protection, even an escort. The UN would have gladly stepped in to help identify and monitor such vessels. Seems to me like a thinly veiled attempt to make them look like the good guys and cover up what can only be explained as a military defeat.

If they truly captured the island in battle, we should see footage of Russian KIAs and POWs, as well as multiple destroyed Russian vehicles (we know Russia lost 1 Pantsyr in a recent strike so that wouldn't be it, it's buried in the pile of ~3 days of materials that I'm behind by). If on the other hand Russia's narrative is correct, and Russia withdrew of their own accord, we might see Ukrainian positions on the island, and possibly some traces that Russia left things behind. But not much more then that.

They interestingly specift "two speedboats". The last satellite image I saw had 5 boats and multiple vehicles on the island. If they literally evacuated personnel in two boats and called it a day, there should be quite a bit of abandoned equipment.

Ananda said:
If any naval convoy agreed upon by both Ukraine and Russia, the big potential is Turkey. Potential some Middle East like Egypt or Israel also possible (but both have to work with Turkey, which can create another issue). UK, and US will try to get in, but don't think will happen.

Russia actually now put the card back to Ukraine to clear their mine field. If Ukraine don't want to do it, then Russia can say the blame on weaponise food is in Ukraine hand, and not theirs.

Clear it with what though? It's not like Ukraine has a robust force of minetrawlers to utilize... Russia has mine trawlers in the Black Sea Fleet, but they're mostly old and not very good. Iirc they have one new project 12700, but the type is not without problems, and it's all alone.

swerve said:
The claim that the shopping centre was the intended target may well have been false, but as far as I can see, the Russian response has been a flood of sometimes contradictory claims which are even more false. For example, that the shops were not hit by a missile, but debris & exploding munitions from a weapons warehouse (which mysteriously missed everything between it & the shopping centre), that the mall wasn't hit by anything & the whole thing was staged by the Ukrainians, that it was empty at the time, that it had been closed for some time . . . .

There's a problem here. Russian claims are often so blatantly false (e.g. frequently contradicting each other) that it seems reasonable to reject every Russian claim unless supported by independent evidence, but that often leaves us with only Ukrainian sources. They tend to be less incredible, usually having at least the merit of internal consistency, so if one was forced to make a choice, it would seem logical to plump for the Ukrainian narrative, but we know they're also unreliable. Luckily, we're not forced to make that choice.

Better, of course, to approach both with skepticism.

In this case, as far as I can see, the Russians attacked Kremenchug with two missiles, at least one of which looked very much like a Kh-22 (AS-4). That one struck by a factory, doing some (how much?) damage. The other landed about 500 metres away, hitting a shopping centre outside the perimeter of the industrial area containing the factory, on the other side of a railway.

From what was hit, we can't reliably deduce intentions. Maybe they were both aimed at the factory. Maybe they both hit their targets, but the shopping centre was mistaken for a factory or weapons store.

Overall the Ukrainian version seems to fit the verifiable facts except the attribution of intent by the Russians to hit the shopping centre, & the Russian versions are a mess which are impossible to believe. Perhaps they're intended to confuse.

With one important caveat. Ukraine intentionally omitted information. Meaning it's not an innocent disagreement about Russian intent. It's an intentional attempt to misrepresent the situation.

On the subject of differences between versions, you are very correct. Russia has been absolutely awful at the information war. You know, it's almost like one side has a gaggle of PR companies working on portraying the war in a positive light, while the other side is left to the devices of it's incompetent and corrupt state propaganda machine...

From where I sit both sides are lying consistently, repeatedly, and unashamedly. Neither one is to be trusted without independent evidence.

Ranger25 · Jun 30, 2022

Feanor said:
If they truly captured the island in battle, we should see footage of Russian KIAs and POWs, as well as multiple destroyed Russian vehicles (we know Russia lost 1 Pantsyr in a recent strike so that wouldn't be it, it's buried in the pile of ~3 days of materials that I'm behind by). If on the other hand Russia's narrative is correct, and Russia withdrew of their own accord, we might see Ukrainian positions on the island, and possibly some traces that Russia left things behind. But not much more then that.

They interestingly specift "two speedboats". The last satellite image I saw had 5 boats and multiple vehicles on the island. If they literally evacuated personnel in two boats and called it a day, there should be quite a bit of abandoned equipment.

Clear it with what though? It's not like Ukraine has a robust force of minetrawlers to utilize... Russia has mine trawlers in the Black Sea Fleet, but they're mostly old and not very good. Iirc they have one new project 12700, but the type is not without problems, and it's all alone.

With one important caveat. Ukraine intentionally omitted information. Meaning it's not an innocent disagreement about Russian intent. It's an intentional attempt to misrepresent the situation.

On the subject of differences between versions, you are very correct. Russia has been absolutely awful at the information war. You know, it's almost like one side has a gaggle of PR companies working on portraying the war in a positive light, while the other side is left to the devices of it's incompetent and corrupt state propaganda machine...

From where I sit both sides are lying consistently, repeatedly, and unashamedly. Neither one is to be trusted without independent evidence.

Makes quite a statement that the much hyped Black Sea fleet cannot secure a small island 170 miles from its home port. UKR has basically no operational Navy and very limited fixed wing assets but still managed to destroy RU forces on the island multiple times. shows significant weakness in point defense of the Pantsir and area via Buk. The Fleet also showed zero ability to interdict coastal based tubed artillery and any land based ASHM like the Neptune/harpoon. Even island based rotary attack assets could have attempted to interdict coastal tubes and sanitize zones within their range fans but apparently nothing was attempted.

Russia Withdraws From Snake Island

Following heavy Ukrainian bombardment, Russian forces have now performed a “tactical withdrawal” from the strategic outpost in the Black Sea.

www.thedrive.com

The Russian MOD stated in their ongoing propoganda efforts

“In order to organize humanitarian grain corridors as part of the implementation of joint agreements reached with the participation of the UN, the Russian Federation decided to leave its positions on Zmiinyi Island,”

Feanor · Jun 30, 2022

Ranger25 said:
Makes quite a statement that the much hyped Black Sea fleet cannot secure a small island 170 miles from its home port. UKR has basically no operational Navy and very limited fixed wing assets but still managed to destroy RU forces on the island multiple times. shows significant weakness in point defense of the Pantsir and area via Buk. The Fleet also showed zero ability to interdict coastal based tubed artillery and any land based ASHM like the Neptune/harpoon.

Russia Withdraws From Snake Island

Following heavy Ukrainian bombardment, Russian forces have now performed a “tactical withdrawal” from the strategic outpost in the Black Sea.

www.thedrive.com

The Russian MOD stated in their ongoing propoganda efforts

“In order to organize humanitarian grain corridors as part of the implementation of joint agreements reached with the participation of the UN, the Russian Federation decided to leave its positions on Zmiinyi Island,”

A few points. I'm not aware of any Buks being on Zmeiniy. Buk-M1 and even 2s are fairly old systems. Their value here would be limited, especially against more modern threats like Bayraktars or Brimstones. The ability to secure the island depends on a number of factors including who you're securing it against. I'm confident without heavy C4ISR support from NATO, as well as weapons and munitions provided, Ukraine would not have been able to do what they did. Now, Russia failing to secure an island against NATO? Sounds about right to me. Obviously it's not quite that simple, but I think you see my point. Let's remember, the entire BSF had 4 surface warships worth mentioning (3 newish frigates and one badly outdated cruiser). They've had to stick Tor modules on patrol boats and tugboats to provide air defense. Last but not least, what does secure mean in this context. Was the island an important Russian point for projecting force into Ukraine? Not really... so what should Russia have done all along? Left the island alone. Of course if the BSF doesn't have enough warships with air defense capabilities to control the airspace south of Odessa, then you have to resort to silly things like trying to jam-pack a small island with GBAD to substitute the corvettes and frigates that you never built (spending the money instead on small missile ships and patrol ships). An island that's within MLRS range of the coast...

Overall this is definitely a Russian failure. But the failure didn't start with their inability to protect hard to hide assets on a tiny piece of rock close to the coast. The failure started with the necessity of using it in this manner to begin with. Continue with the inability of the Russian airforce to consistently destroy Ukrainian air defenses in their entirety (Russia has essentially abandoned attempts at SEAD/DEAD on the strategic level at this point). And end with the need to try and use inadequate means to provide capabilities in an area where what was obviously needed was a set of modern frigates or corvettes to cover the area.

Ranger25 · Jun 30, 2022

Agreed, One has to question the island’s actually strategic value.

Since the RU whithdrawl the constant USN Triton flights have ceased but the RC 135 persisits

heres the Rivot Joint

And the triton

Ananda · Jun 30, 2022

Feanor said:
It's not like Ukraine has a robust force of minetrawlers to utilize..

If the context the Naval convoy will be handle by Turkey as the only Black Sea power that both Russia and Ukraine can agree with. Then Turkish MCM can also do the job. However they have to get permission from Ukraine.

Thus this is the Ukraine clearance that I'm mention on previous post. Russia seems now push back the card on this food weaponise accusations back towards Ukraine. Ukraine have to agree on demining their port.

I believe I already put article from Turkish media on this thread sometime ago, on Erdo Sultan offering his fleet to do both providing naval convoy and demining the port. In sense Turkey that will provide guarantee to Russia that all cargo vessel will only taking out grain and not bringing anything else, while same time guarantee Ukraine they are the only Naval vessel that will enter Odessa.

I believe Ukraine will only going to be able use Odessa, as Nikolayev too close to Russian line (and potentially will be Russia next target if they manage to clear out Donetsk). So one port corridor perhaps that's what Russia offering by also abandon snake island.

STURM · Jul 1, 2022

Ranger25 said:
Agreed, One has to question the island’s actually strategic value.

I question whether the Russians abandoned it because keeping it supplied was a drain on resources and holding onto to it didn't provide any tangible gains or because it was simply untenable. It's a major propaganda coup for the Ukrainians but ultimately it has zero effect on the overall calculus.

Vivendi · Jul 1, 2022

Norway to increase support to Ukraine by 10 billion NOK (1 billion Euros) during the rest of 2022, and 2023. The funding will be used for humanitarian assistance and reconstruction efforts in the country, and to provide weapons and budget support to the Ukrainian government administration. https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktue...pport-to-ukraine-by-nok-10-billion/id2921856/

Norway is donating 3 MLRS to the UK, to free up 3 additional UK MLRS that will be transferred to Ukraine: https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktue...kkende-rakettartilleri-til-ukraina/id2921395/

Sweden announced recently a 500 million SEK (49 million USD) military package to to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, demining equipment, and support weapons such as machine guns. This is the fifth package from Sweden. Sweden announces new $49 million in military aid for Ukraine

The Pentagon announced today a new 820 million USD package that includes 2 NASAMS systems, four more counter-artillery radars and up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition. The new aid also included $50 million worth of ammunition drawn from U.S. stockpiles for American-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems that arrived in Ukraine last week. US to send Ukraine advanced NASAMS air defense weapons in $820 million package

Feanor · Jul 2, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strike lands, Nikolaev region.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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