According to Oryx and also some other sources Ukraine has for instance captured more Russian tanks than what they have lost... However no doubt Ukraine has also had significant losses in terms of soldiers killed and injured.Ukraine should have the advantage in numbers of light infantry so all the Manpads/atgms supplied by the west make sense but with all footage of Ukrainian artillery getting hit and smashed gbad is there anything that can be sent to replace those losses in a meaningful timeframe? I understand that something like patriot is way too complicated but just thinking for example: a M777 might be something that an ex-D20 user might be able to be rapidly trained on? (assuming they have more men than guns?) If this war keeps dragging on then there's more time for this kind of effort to bear fruit - if the training starts now. Although I for one wouldn't want to be the one manning towed artillery on the modern battlefield (which perhaps lends weight to dumping the M777s on the poor Ukrainians in the first place)
Tyler Rogoway has a new op-ed: Russia Has Already Lost | The Drive re-iterating many of the points mentioned in this thread already. No doubt Russia has already lost more than they can possibly gain from this. Even if they succeed in occupying parts of Ukraine and install puppets, the hatred towards Russia in the local population will be very strong, and Russia will have to fight a "never-ending" insurgence, supported by NATO. However one chilling possibility that Rogoway does not dig into is the possibility of Russia using WMD in Ukraine, most likely chemical and/or nuclear weapons.
Mark Schneider has a long piece on the Russian nuclear policy, and Ukraine well worth a read: Nuclear Threats and Putin’s War Against Ukraine | RealClearDefense. Central to Russian nuclear strategy is the idea of "escalate to deescalate" or "escalate to win.” This was announced officially in 2003. The idea is that Putin launches a small low yield/low-collateral damage nuclear attack, his victims do not retaliate, and as a result, Russia wins.
In other news, France now has 3 of their 4 nuclear submarines simultaneously at sea: France increases nuclear submarine presence in response to Russian threats | News | The TimesMy estimate of the number of Russian tactical nuclear weapons is over 5,000. This is based on Russian press reports like Pravda.ru which in 2014 said, “Russia, according to conservative estimates, has 5,000 pieces of different classes of TNW [tactical nuclear weapons] - from Iskander warheads to torpedo, aerial and artillery warheads!” The official Russian claim that it has reduced its tactical nuclear weapons 75% from Cold War levels equates to about the same number. Mr. Rogov has noted that assessments of Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons range between several thousand and over 10,000.
Dr. Philip Karber, President of the Potomac Foundation, has stated that roughly half of Russia's 5,000 tactical nuclear weapons have been modernized with new sub-kiloton nuclear warheads for air defense, torpedoes and cruise missiles. Dr. Karber’s source is under Chatham House rules, but the source is a very good one.