The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

QEDdeq · Mar 20, 2022

phreeky said:
I think that many of the countries enforcing sanctions will be quite aware and prepared to accept pain from this for quite some time. Russia was a big player in energy in europe plus grain, but economically more inline with a regional/middle power.

Poorer countries will sadly suffer, particularly when it comes to grain availability. A lot of wealthier countries will pay a bit more for grain and fuel but otherwise it will be mostly normal.

I expect others to be greatly impacted are those that rely on Russian military hardware. There will probably be serious concerns about delivery of orders, spare parts, support etc. Not to mention those whom relied on the Ukrainian aviation industry.

We in the West we can clearly cope with high energy and food prices. After all, we produce a lot of those ourselves. We can surely take the pain although there are poorer classes who wont be happy, even in the West. Energy bills in some places are 3-4 times higher. Pooerer households will find it difficult to cope especially if food prices are growing too. Inflation is in the area of 10%. However it is manageable in the West I would say, we can take the pain. But if you look at Africa's dependency on grain, sunflower oil, etc from both Ukraine and Russia things start to be worrying regarding stability. Besides animal feed prices will also be impacted affecting Asian markets as well. Revolts, wars, instability (in Africa in particular) combined with a new and potentially higher migration wave can have huge consequences on a Europe already struggling with high migration from Ukraine after just recovering from the previous migratory wave caused by the war in Syria.

Then there is also the Iranian issue to look at. US now trying to get them off sanctions in order to increase global oil supply. But I wonder how will this be perceived by enemies of Iran in the region such as Saudi Arabia and Israel? Will they feel OK knowing petrodollars are flowing to Tehran again helping them develop conventional military capabilities and indirectly supporting hostile parties in the region (see Syria's, Hezbollah) which are propped by Tehran. What would a conflict in the Middle East do to global oil prices if it happens at the same time with the war in Ukraine? This is why I wasn't surprised hearing Lavrov saying they wont oppose the Iranian deal even if at first sight it looks detrimental to Russia's interest. But on a longer thinking letting the deal pass might push for more instability in the Middle East by creating a rift between the US and its traditional allies in the region.

The risks are high for both sides, we will see how it ends but clearly negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not serious, Putin wants a deal with the West, not with Ukraine. While the West doesn't want to see itself as party in the conflict to avoid giving the Kremlin a rallying narrative. While at the same time pushing weapons into Ukraine hoping it will be for Russia what Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union in the 80's. It is clear at this point that both sides are still escalating.

There are four major things to follow in the coming weeks that may have significant impact:

1. China's (and to a lesser extent India's) positions - as long as Xi props Putin he can continue to escalate. Perhaps Xi sees the danger of Russia going down as a threat to its own regime and values strategic balance more than immediate economic constraints caused by eventual sanctions? Perhaps he calculates that the West, already under pain from ongoing economic situation will not escalate the economic war against China?
2. The internal control inside Russia - can Putin mobilize the (majority of) his population to support the war or it goes the other way? more importantly can he keep his internal circle close and supporting him?
3. State of the global economy - in particular food prices, inflation, energy prices
4. Geo-political developments in the ME following a revived Iran deal

Ananda · Mar 20, 2022

QEDdeq said:
China's (and to a lesser extent India's) positions - as long as Xi props Putin he can continue to escalate. Perhaps Xi sees the danger of Russia going down as a threat to its own regime and values strategic balance more than immediate economic constraints caused by eventual sanctions?

Question will be how China see this Trade War with Russia will be a prelude for them. China already talk in the media that US try to smeer China, on this China supporting arms and supply to Russia.

If they see their security actually more secure from the West if Russia still relative intact and strong. Xi will support Russia. He need friend against US (and West). Don't think French and German want to push China after pushing Russia, however I'm not quite sure on Washington and London.

India actually want strong and united Russia. India (and some in Asia) actually hoping for multi axis world order (many Indian analysts already put in media). Remember India and many in Asia basically relatively in good position during Cold War as non alligned countries. Russia so far also for India prove to be reliable 'friends' of Indian Defense.

As for trade war, I already put market assesment (one from Moody's) on two years adjustment on trade order (on other thread). Whatever the result, even west close their market to Russian resources, other market will still open to Russia. India just give multi billions deals for Russian 'discounted' hydrocarbons. Discounted in here is against commodities price in western market. It will not be as attractive as Western market, but there're still those non western market that can keep Russia producers going.

phreeky · Mar 20, 2022

Ananda said:
India just give multi billions deals for Russian 'discounted' hydrocarbons. Discounted in here is against commodities price in western market. It will not be as attractive as Western market, but there're still those non western market that can keep Russia producers going.

Sure it isn't a direct result, however if a country (esp one as large as India) gets access to a cheap commodity directly from a source (such as Russia), that likewise reduces their demand of that resource on the world market and eases pricing in itself.

It greatly reduces the effect of sanctions, but also reduces the impact they have on other countries imposing them.

Ananda · Mar 20, 2022

phreeky said:
greatly reduces the effect of sanctions, but also reduces the impact they have on other countries imposing them.

Yes, in the end market will stabilise it self from the effect of this sanctions/trade war. Euro Zone as Russian biggest market will take time to find alternatives from Russia, while Russia will also need find new market. Potentially Russia will need to find market mostly from developing countries, which will take lower prices (as Russia out from Western market, they will try to cut market first, just like what Iran and Venezualla done now).

That's why masket assesment (like the one from Moody's that I put on other Russian-West thread) predict there will be one-two years adjustment period (depends on the war prolong time).

ngatimozart · Mar 20, 2022

60 Minutes Australia recently aired this program "The Tyrant: Will Vladimir Putin spark another world war? | Under Investigation" which discusses Putin and where the war will go. It is worth taking the time to watch and three of the panel equate Putin to Hitler, or as Malcolm Davis said a Hitler with nuclear weapons.

82 years ago Dorothy Thompson wrote an essay "The Problem Child of Europe" about Hitler and the Nazi party. Thompson was a Germanophile and she'd first interviewed Hitler in 1931 whilst in 1934 he banned her from Germany. whilst she talks much about the German culture and what so entranced her about it, she also discusses Hitler, the Nazis, and why she thinks that the German nation accepted him and his actions.

80 odd years later we are seeing something similar with Putin and many have drawn parallels between Putin and Hitler. Russia is not Germany of the 1930s but today we see the similar erosion or basic rights, call for the protection and integration with the motherland of ethnic peoples: Putin = Russians, Hitler = Deutsch volk, in adjacent foreign lands; expansionism Putin = recovery of "lost" USSR and Imperial Russian territory and lands, Hitler = lebensraum. Hence, I think that Dorothy Thompson's essay is worth a read and is pertinent and informative to the ongoing discourse.

Is Putin another Hitler? I think it's starting to look that way. He's not necessarily running a true national socialist political policy, but he does appear to be exhibiting some Hitlerian attributes. What would really work in Ukraine's favour is if, like Hitler, he decides that he's the worlds greatest strategist and general; Napoleon, Gregoriy Zhukov, Potemkin, and Alexander the Great rolled into one. Hitler deciding such really worked out well for the Wehrmacht and the Third Reich.

There's been some discussion about the removal of Yanukovych as President by the Ukrainian Parliament by 328 votes out of 447. It appears that some posters have taken a biased view in favour of the rebels and Russians WRT this. Tell the whole story not part of it, such as Yanukovych going against a large Parliamentary vote of 315 out of 349 MPs present for the vote, passing the Statement of the Aspirations for the Implementation of Ukraine joining the EU and Yanukovych refusing to sign the deal. Secondly, by his changing of the Constitution in 2010 Yanukovych's legitimacy as President could have been on shaky ground. As it was the changes were quite controversial, possibly more controversial than the 2004 changes. The opposition to Yanukovych's dismissal sounds like sour grapes and Russian propaganda attempting to excuse Russian interference in Ukrainian affairs.

OPSSG · Mar 20, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504727515394367491

FT’s visual anatomy of the first phase of Putin's war, mapping the OSINT evidence that tells the story leading up to the indiscriminate shelling now.

Well worth the effort to learn more from these graphics that accompany the story.

John Fedup · Mar 20, 2022

Just wondering if the invasion had started before the Olympics would Russia’s logistics problem have been less severe. Would several additional weeks of frozen ground made any difference?

KiwiRob · Mar 20, 2022

phreeky said:
I think that many of the countries enforcing sanctions will be quite aware and prepared to accept pain from this for quite some time. Russia was a big player in energy in europe plus grain, but economically more inline with a regional/middle power.

Poorer countries will sadly suffer, particularly when it comes to grain availability. A lot of wealthier countries will pay a bit more for grain and fuel but otherwise it will be mostly normal.

I expect others to be greatly impacted are those that rely on Russian military hardware. There will probably be serious concerns about delivery of orders, spare parts, support etc. Not to mention those whom relied on the Ukrainian aviation industry.

Govts might be prepared to accept the pain but I don't think the voting public will. The increase in the cost of fuel has been hard on many people, combined with a spike in the EU energy market which has seen power prices soar, yesterday when we did our weekly grocery shop it was about 20% more expensive than the week before. Inflation is going up, we will see intreat rates rise soon. My investments and pension savings have also taken a huge hit.

hauritz · Mar 20, 2022

ngatimozart said:
60 Minutes Australia recently aired this program "The Tyrant: Will Vladimir Putin spark another world war? | Under Investigation" which discusses Putin and where the war will go. It is worth taking the time to watch and three of the panel equate Putin to Hitler, or as Malcolm Davis said a Hitler with nuclear weapons.

82 years ago Dorothy Thompson wrote an essay "The Problem Child of Europe" about Hitler and the Nazi party. Thompson was a Germanophile and she'd first interviewed Hitler in 1931 whilst in 1934 he banned her from Germany. whilst she talks much about the German culture and what so entranced her about it, she also discusses Hitler, the Nazis, and why she thinks that the German nation accepted him and his actions.

80 odd years later we are seeing something similar with Putin and many have drawn parallels between Putin and Hitler. Russia is not Germany of the 1930s but today we see the similar erosion or basic rights, call for the protection and integration with the motherland of ethnic peoples: Putin = Russians, Hitler = Deutsch volk, in adjacent foreign lands; expansionism Putin = recovery of "lost" USSR and Imperial Russian territory and lands, Hitler = lebensraum. Hence, I think that Dorothy Thompson's essay is worth a read and is pertinent and informative to the ongoing discourse.

Is Putin another Hitler? I think it's starting to look that way. He's not necessarily running a true national socialist political policy, but he does appear to be exhibiting some Hitlerian attributes. What would really work in Ukraine's favour is if, like Hitler, he decides that he's the worlds greatest strategist and general; Napoleon, Gregoriy Zhukov, Potemkin, and Alexander the Great rolled into one. Hitler deciding such really worked out well for the Wehrmacht and the Third Reich.

There's been some discussion about the removal of Yanukovych as President by the Ukrainian Parliament by 328 votes out of 447. It appears that some posters have taken a biased view in favour of the rebels and Russians WRT this. Tell the whole story not part of it, such as Yanukovych going against a large Parliamentary vote of 315 out of 349 MPs present for the vote, passing the Statement of the Aspirations for the Implementation of Ukraine joining the EU and Yanukovych refusing to sign the deal. Secondly, by his changing of the Constitution in 2010 Yanukovych's legitimacy as President could have been on shaky ground. As it was the changes were quite controversial, possibly more controversial than the 2004 changes. The opposition to Yanukovych's dismissal sounds like sour grapes and Russian propaganda attempting to excuse Russian interference in Ukrainian affairs.

I am starting to have my doubts that there can be a peaceful resolution to this war. I wonder where the line in the sand has been drawn. I am not sure the West could just stand back if Putin started using chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

STURM · Mar 20, 2022

I'm not convinced Putin will resort to nukes but I'm convinced if he does use chemicals the West will not do more beyond the usual condemnations; rhetoric at the UN; more declarations of support for the Ukraine; more sancrions and increased deliveries of arms. What else can the West do? Russia may be economically challenged and isolated but it's a nuclear power and the West has no desire or stomach for a direct confrontation. Can't blame it.

The Russia-Ukraine war put Europe’s far right on the back foot

But ‘mainstream’ politicians should also be pressured to explain why they supported Putin’s regime for so long.

www.aljazeera.com

"Today, Europe is experiencing its darkest hour since the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine put the continent’s future in serious jeopardy. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s exclusionary nationalism and imperial designs are now posing an immediate threat to the safety and wellbeing of not only those living in ex-Soviet nations in Russia’s vicinity but all Europeans"

"French far-right leader and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s party has reportedly destroyed more than a million campaign leaflets featuring a photograph of her with Putin. While Le Pen did not go as far as to publicly call Putin a dictator, she had to admit that his invasion of Ukraine was “a clear violation of international law and absolutely indefensible”.

Ananda · Mar 20, 2022

Is this real ? After the way US treat Turkey on S400, kick them from F-35 program, distrurb some of Turkey defense export drive, and even still hold approval for F-16B. Now Biden team even ask Turkey on sending the S400 to Ukraine?

Don't talk yet on Sultan Erdo wiling to completely cut Turkey relationship to Russia (as Turkey keep saying they want to keep relationship with both Ukraine and Russia). Is US even consider how Turkey feeling on US various treatment to them lately ? Now they ask this?

I don't know if this is Biden administration desperation, or they simply don't read how Biden administration image in some of their 'allies' in middle east. Biden already ask Saudi for increase in Oil production, which Saudi Crown Prince basically turn him down. Now asking Sultan Erdo on this ? Is either simply arrogance and clueless, or desperation from Biden's team in reading middle east.

T.C.P · Mar 20, 2022

Ananda said:
Is this real ? After the way US treat Turkey on S400, kick them from F-35 program, distrurb some of Turkey defense export drive, and even still hold approval for F-16B. Now Biden team even ask Turkey on sending the S400 to Ukraine?

Don't talk yet on Sultan Erdo wiling to completely cut Turkey relationship to Russia (as Turkey keep saying they want to keep relationship with both Ukraine and Russia). Is US even consider how Turkey feeling on US various treatment to them lately ? Now they ask this?

I don't know if this is Biden administration desperation, or they simply don't read how Biden administration image in some of their 'allies' in middle east. Biden already ask Saudi for increase in Oil production, which Saudi Crown Prince basically turn him down. Now asking Sultan Erdo on this ? Is either simply arrogance and clueless, or desperation from Biden's team in reading middle east.

The only way erdo is ever giving up the S-400s is if the US given them guaranteed F-35s, THAADS and whatever else erdo boy wants. Putin's actions have made Turkey very popular. All of Europe saw how much Turkey supported Ukraine, a lot of Europeans were forgetting why Turkey is a member of NATO and why Europe needs them on their side so much. This one conflict was a timely reminder.

T.C.P · Mar 20, 2022

STURM said:
I'm not convinced Putin will resort to nukes but I'm convinced if he does use chemicals the West will not do more beyond the usual condemnations; rhetoric at the UN; more declarations of support for the Ukraine; more sancrions and increased deliveries of arms. What else can the West do? Russia may be economically challenged and isolated but it's a nuclear power and the West has no desire or stomach for a direct confrontation. Can't blame it.

The Russia-Ukraine war put Europe’s far right on the back foot

But ‘mainstream’ politicians should also be pressured to explain why they supported Putin’s regime for so long.

www.aljazeera.com

"Today, Europe is experiencing its darkest hour since the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine put the continent’s future in serious jeopardy. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s exclusionary nationalism and imperial designs are now posing an immediate threat to the safety and wellbeing of not only those living in ex-Soviet nations in Russia’s vicinity but all Europeans"

"French far-right leader and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s party has reportedly destroyed more than a million campaign leaflets featuring a photograph of her with Putin. While Le Pen did not go as far as to publicly call Putin a dictator, she had to admit that his invasion of Ukraine was “a clear violation of international law and absolutely indefensible”.

Far right might get a boost in another way though. Instead of being geared towards the russians, they might get inspired by the Ukraniain far right. People are seeing how effective far right militias can be when the nation is threatened by war. With Europe feeling more threatened than ever, nationalism trends should get a boost.

May be the moderate right will be benefited the most, sides nationalistic enough to take advanatge of the current moodset, but enough removed from Russia ties.

Ananda · Mar 20, 2022

Video from Patrick Lancaster. He claim to be the only independent English speaking journalist behind Russian lines. This is video from Russian and Rebel control Mariupol.

There're long lines of civilian cars try leaving Mariupol. Russia media on other channels claim that the mass refugees from Mariupol, as proof that the ones that hold them in the cities in not Russian, but Ukrainian. The moment Russian control part of the City, people can leave immediately if they want.

phreeky · Mar 20, 2022

Ananda said:
Video from Patrick Lancaster. He claim to be the only independent English speaking journalist behind Russian lines. This is video from Russian and Rebel control Mariupol.

I've seen various social media references of Patrick Lancaster, including from right when the invasion first kicked off, of his pro-Russian bias. He most definitely is NOT an independent journalist, however that's the impression he likes to give.

phreeky · Mar 20, 2022

It's beginning to become clear how many Russian's are starting to associate the "Z" symbol with a swastika-like meaning. The ones avoiding the question with some clear facial expressions also indicate the concern they have with speaking their mind.

Feanor · Mar 21, 2022

Update.

Another map, grain of salt, etc.

Милитарист

Оперативная обстановка по состоянию на 20:00 субботы

t.me

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The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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