The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

It raises the question of whether Ukraine has more of a neo-Nazi problem than other countries, Russia included - every country has an element, so some cherry picking of footage etc is hardly classed as evidence IMO.

I've be very interested to hear why you think a Jewish president is running a pro-Nazi country.

Straight to the point, I think Putin has fooled yourself and a large segment of the Russian population into believing this his justification of invasion. After all plenty in this thread have hopped between "Nazi problems" and "NATO expansion" as justifications for the invasion.

edit: I should add - you're talking about a level of Nazification to the level of justifying a full blown invasion of another country. Are Russia not also guilty of using groups with similar ideologies, such as the Wagner Group? Will groups like Azov now also not be MORE popular in Ukraine due to the invasion? This whole thing sounds like a cover for the real reason for invasion.

It depends on what you mean by "more of a problem". I don't know that Ukraine has more neo-Nazi, but in Ukraine they're well armed, trained, and well organized. They've also been allowed to promote their ideology openly and even run indoctrination camps for children. I would say it's more of a problem. It's gotten so bad that Ukraine is attracting right wing extremists from abroad due to how good they have it there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/14/neo-nazi-ukraine-war/

 

[GermanHerman]

I think one of the main problems is that the right wing extremists not only took part in the euromaidan but played a key role.

They were organized and willing to use force, something large parts of the euromaidan movement lacked.

This means the right wing extremists in Ukraine have experience in overthrowing a government. And that was before they formed armed and combat hardened militias.

So I would say yes, Ukraine does have a massive nazi problem. It will become more dangerous once the fighting stops because then the attention of the right wing will shift back to the internal situation.

 

[Feanor]

It raises the question of whether Ukraine has more of a neo-Nazi problem than other countries, Russia included - every country has an element, so some cherry picking of footage etc is hardly classed as evidence IMO.

I've be very interested to hear why you think a Jewish president is running a pro-Nazi country.

Straight to the point, I think Putin has fooled yourself and a large segment of the Russian population into believing this his justification of invasion. After all plenty in this thread have hopped between "Nazi problems" and "NATO expansion" as justifications for the invasion.

edit: I should add - you're talking about a level of Nazification to the level of justifying a full blown invasion of another country. Are Russia not also guilty of using groups with similar ideologies, such as the Wagner Group? Will groups like Azov now also not be MORE popular in Ukraine due to the invasion? This whole thing sounds like a cover for the real reason for invasion.

I thought about this some more and here's a few things I want to clarify.

Putin claiming Ukraine is run by Nazis is untrue. But it doesn't mean there aren't Nazi in Ukraine or that they aren't a problem. In fact they make for a convenient pretext. I don't believe Ukraine as a country is pro-Nazi, nor are the majority of the population, or even a large chunk. They are a tiny minority and can't win elections. At least so far. With this in mind, I want to be clear, I'm certainly not saying that Ukraine's problem with right wing extremism justifies Russian invasion. That having been said, it doesn't stop being a problem and factoring this problem in, as well as Russian demands of de-nazification is significant. So if we're discussing the scope of possible diplomatic solutions to the conflict between Zelensky and Putin directly, then the influence these groups have within Ukraine by virtue of being armed and organized, and the demands Russia has made regarding de-nazification, both definitely factor into this situation.

On the subject of Wagner group, I'm not aware of them having any kind of ideology as an organization. More importantly, I don't think Wagner group exists in the manner in which it is sometimes discussed. I think there are a number of shady semi-legal paramilitary companies in Russia that contract out with the Russian government, or other states (Mozambique, CAR, Mali all come to mind) to provide military and para-military services, sometimes in the form of training or security, but other times in the form of pretty much waging war. I don't believe it is in any way accurate to compare those PMCs to Azov. Azov is explicitly a neo-Nazi group with political aspirations, and is officially part of the Ukrainian military. Russian PMCs are as non-public as they can reasonably be, don't flaunt any particular ideology, and are not officially part of the Russian state apparatus. I do think there are problems with the Russian state using agencies of that sort to conduct military operations abroad, I just don't see how this is relevant to this discussion. It sounds a lot like the very whataboutism that Putin's diplomats employed in justifying Russian moves in Ukraine.

EDIT: Given that concern over the proliferation of right wing extremism in Ukraine and their relationship with the Ukrainian state has drawn the attention of multiple western outlets looking at the situation (bellingcat for example was discussing it years ago), I think at this point pretending that Ukraine doesn't have a problem with right wing extremists is willful ignorance.

 

[surpreme]

Been study western media it seems to be heavy anti-Russian towards its military. There is different between what U.S. Forces had to fight during the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and what Russian Forces had go thought the invasion of Ukraine. Here couple of different things I've notice

1. ENVIRONMENT
2. MILITARY EQUIPMENT.

Yes, there are problem with the Russian Military. But let remember U.S. has supply problem during the 2003 Iraq invasion not to the degrees of Russian Forces. The U.S. forces did not go against Army that had same equipment also they didn't fight a fully equipment military that getting supplied from other countries. Now let take this on an operational level Russian hasn't had a big operation in years let said since 1979.

The U.S. has an operational level operation in 1991 and in 2003 they are well prepared for this type of war, but U.S. would have difficult fighting a force with the same equipment and fully equip force such as Ukraine if Ukraine has U.S. equipment. The overall conclusion is there a different what U.S. had to fight in a war. Another thing is Ukraine bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan

 

[seaspear]

Often the first victim of war can be truth and the art of propaganda to shape public perceptions and understandings Goebbels was a master at it and state organisations appreciate this even the British under Cherchhill used this,

Russia's “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model

Russia's propaganda model is high-volume and multichannel, and it disseminates messages without regard for the truth. It is rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it does not commit to consistency.

www.rand.org

Here's how propaganda is clouding Russians' understanding of the war in Ukraine

The truth about the war is hard to find in Russia and is mostly discovered only by people who already distrust the Kremlin and its state-sponsored media, says Russian-born journalist Julia Ioffe.

www.npr.org

Russian TikTok Influencers Are Being Paid To Spread Kremlin Propaganda - Slashdot

An investigation has uncovered a coordinated campaign to pay Russian TikTok influencers to post videos pushing pro-Kremlin narratives about the war in Ukraine. Vice News: Numerous campaigns have been coordinated in a secret Telegram channel that directs these influencers on what to say, where to...

tech.slashdot.org

This article supplies some history of state-run propaganda by Russia in its justifications to its public for it actions

Inside Russia’s Secret Propaganda Unit

Exclusive: Newly discovered documents reveal the role of a secret Russian intelligence section called Unit 54777 in propaganda and espionage operations.

newlinesmag.com

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pillars-of-Russia%E2%80%99s-Disinformation-and-Propaganda-Ecosystem_08-04-20.pdf

There have been people who post online with real beliefs about this war and it is as such though undeclared, I cant though always be certain of motives and if money was the motivation for such posts

 

[phreeky]

Given that concern over the proliferation of right wing extremism in Ukraine and their relationship with the Ukrainian state has drawn the attention of multiple western outlets looking at the situation (bellingcat for example was discussing it years ago), I think at this point pretending that Ukraine doesn't have a problem with right wing extremists is willful ignorance.

Totally a fair point.

I think that Russia has a good chance this will make any such problem worse though. If Russia wanted to truly address this, it would have diplomatically built international awareness and condemnation.

Extremist groups almost always gain when there is instability. Any fear or hatred is just the fuel they are looking for to build.

 

[danonz]

Can any one confirm if this is true and if attached descriptions is correct

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505047194050699265

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505220353320235010

The French seems aknowledge Russian gain more compared to UK and US official put publicly. Seems they think Dnipro getting more importance then Zaporizhye.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The apparent footage of the Kinzhal in action. Looks to be going very fast, considering the delayed sonic boom effect.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505146993701699587

In this article they are talking about the use of the Kh-47 Kinzhal. American sources confirm the use of it. One expert from the Netherlands says its indeed likely the Russians have use it, another one has his doubts.

Bronnen VS bevestigen Russische inzet hypersonische raketten

Het zou een test van het nieuwe wapen zijn geweest en tegelijkertijd een waarschuwing aan het Westen.

nos.nl

Russia says it used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine for first time

Aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition, Moscow says.

www.aljazeera.com

Can any one confirm if this is true and if attached descriptions is correct

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505047194050699265

Its just remarkable that this all happen on very low level in such a small area in a couple of seconds, just in a way it can be all recorded with a phonecamera. And how does he knows its 6G?

These aircrafts are all capable to use BVR-missiles, yet they fight in such a instagrammable/tiktokable way.

 

[V1nce]

Can any one confirm if this is true and if attached descriptions is correct

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505047194050699265

No, this is an obvious fake, done with DCS, and not the first. Signs are, for example, the puff of smoke lingering in the air after missile impact, the fire effects, clouds, the choppy camera movement etc. The dev of this sim btw urged ppl to not use it to produce fake war footage.

 

[Aerojoe]

On the issue of a neo-Nazi Ukraine it strikes me that there is an issue that the people of Ukraine need to address. They need to look deep and ask is it acceptable to have a group like Asov officially endorsed by virtue of its incorporation into the border force. Of course the answer should be no but that’s for the people of Ukraine to force their government to address. But the presence of Asov and like is not, and no where near, an indication of a “nazification” of a sovereign country. It is no justification for the invasion - there can be no debate it does not/not justify invasion.

That being the case I’d like to ask those here that believe the invasion is justified as to what they see as the justification that would be consistent with international law? I see none but others here obviously do.

 

[cdxbow]

All this talk of the problem of neo-Nazis in the Ukraine is hypocritical. Mr Putin's Russia is now a Fascist Regime, in nature and in action. His recent invasion of the Ukraine mimic those of Hitler almost exactly. Please read up on what constitutes Fascism. Mr Putin's Russia ticks all the boxes.

 

[msilenus]

Two things need to be said about Azov that have not been said.

First, the idea that Russia is in Ukraine because Azov is significant there gets things exactly backwards. In 2014, in response to the undeclared Russian invasions of Ukraine, there was an order to create paramilitary forces. White nationalists took advantage of that opportunity to create Azov Battalion. Ukraine never since stopped being under threat from Russia, a country that has a demonstrated willingness to betray their own written assurances of Ukrainian security. Ukraine has thus never since 2014 been in a position to take any move that would even marginally decrease its ability to resist a future Russian invasion.

Second, Azov's significance militarily is much greater than their significance politically. They have a political party, National Corps, which won 2.15% of the vote in the last election, and netted zero seats.

There's a parallel to be made to Finland after the Winter War. Finland correctly surmised that Stalin intended to take the rest of their country. This lead them to join the Axis when Hitler frustrated the Stalin's attempt to live in peace with Germany along a shared border they collaboratively drew through Poland. Compared to Finland's decision to join the Axis in the face of naked aggression from the USSR, Ukraine has both morally compromised less, and has had their desperate path to national survival validated much sooner. (All doubt of Stalin's intentions was removed with the opening of the Soviet Archives.)

Ukraine is, famously, run by a Jewish president. If all Russia wanted was "de-nazification," it is implausible to imagine that withdrawing from Ukraine entirely and letting them join NATO and the EU would not accomplish this goal by removing the necessity of Azov's existence. Those conditions would reflect nothing more than Russia living up to their obligations under the U.N. Charter and the Budapest Memorandum. Accordingly, Russia has no one to blame for Azov but themselves.

 

[Ananda]

Put this as example why you have to see the two sides analyst (or argumentation) then take your own conclusions from there. One of thing I like from this Greek guy channel, is that he doesn't make much his own judgement. He just shown the two sides of stories, and let anyone who watch his channel make their own.

Especially on International politics, there's no Black and White, there's only Gray with side of black and white depends on each side. I know when I said before in my post that I want to see two sides of stories, some members in here accuse me on taking Russian side even Russian logic/thinking. Well the fact is US also twisting International law when Bush Jr invade Iraq 'clouding' true sole purpose on Regime changes. (I would not arguing on original Desert Storm, cause Bush Sr do have legit reasoning).

Personally I don't care what some people say on the two sides assessment thinking like I (and some other members in here) do on this conflict. However saying that whoever not in Western set of thinking is with Russia, is only following what kind of thinking that prevailed in Washington right now. "Either with us or against us".

As for Russia using their hypersonic missile on underground Ukraine ammo bunker, I agree on his last assessment (which basically his own). Russia want to test their new hypersonic missile. Afterall US also use many of their new weapons in Iraq, why can not Russian do the similar thing.

 

[phreeky]

One of thing I like from this Greek guy channel, is that he doesn't make much his own judgement.

He doesn't sound Greek to me, but I can't be sure he hasn't just picked up an American accent when learning English. Is it just that he has a Greek surname?

Either way, it seems like quite typical of independent reporting - nothing particularly special. There are plenty of others with similar reporting. Also, FYI, there is no lack of mainstream media reporting similar to what he has either (perhaps less due to an unwillingness to put journalists in harms way), I don't understand the perception that this isn't the case. Perhaps you're focusing on some particular US or UK media channels is my best guess.

Interestingly I've been following a Russian youtuber whom is asking questions from the general public, note the topic change at approx 5:30 and the awkward avoidance of many of the "special military operation" question:

Also the general trend towards disagreement or avoidance from the more youthful that are taking part. Overall across his videos, the general trend since it all kicked off is that support has declined and there is a sense that Russian's know what is really going on.

Apologies if the provided translations are incorrect, I'm trusting that they're truthful.

 

[GermanHerman]

On the issue of a neo-Nazi Ukraine it strikes me that there is an issue that the people of Ukraine need to address. They need to look deep and ask is it acceptable to have a group like Asov officially endorsed by virtue of its incorporation into the border force. Of course the answer should be no but that’s for the people of Ukraine to force their government to address. But the presence of Asov and like is not, and no where near, an indication of a “nazification” of a sovereign country. It is no justification for the invasion - there can be no debate it does not/not justify invasion.

That being the case I’d like to ask those here that believe the invasion is justified as to what they see as the justification that would be consistent with international law? I see none but others here obviously do.

If ASOV was a german militia all hell would break lose and people would protest by the hundreds of thousands to remove it.

As a matter of fact the defense ministry spend much of its time in the Last years hunting right wingers among it's troops and rooting out any problematic people.

Germany has, for obvious reasons, a very own stance on domestic right wing extremism. Silence is considered participation, If you dont stand up to fascism you are enableing it.

All this talk of the problem of neo-Nazis in the Ukraine is hypocritical. Mr Putin's Russia is now a Fascist Regime, in nature and in action. His recent invasion of the Ukraine mimic those of Hitler almost exactly. Please read up on what constitutes Fascism. Mr Putin's Russia ticks all the boxes.

It's not hypocritical at all. Stalin didnt become a genuine god loving democrate and philantropist just because Hitler attacked the soviet union.

One Side dosnt automaticly becomes pure and good because the other is more authoritarien or evil.

The issue of right wing extremism in Ukraine is not connected to the question of the legitimacy of the war. This is an illegal war of aggression, without a doubt Russia has no right, neither legaly nor moraly, to try to subjugate its neighbor by force like this.

The topic shouldnt become trainted because Putin raised it, nothing Putin Said should be taken seriously and therefore hos speeches should just be dismissed.

Russia has been supporting right wing groups around the Western world for decades now, sowing dissent among it's enemies is Part of the KGB / FSB playbook and if ukraine wouldnt have been fighting russian proxies for the last years russia would have propably supported the people it now condems.

 

[Ananda]

I don't understand the perception that this isn't the case. Perhaps you're focusing on some particular US or UK media channels is my best guess.

Perhaps I'm focusing more on US and Western mainstream media. Still the independent media or channel from US and West that I found also more in line with mainstream media. So only few Independent from West that provides more or less balance view. I also found couple or more independent media from West that even more pro Russia (mostly I suspect because they are conspiracy theoriest).

Also the general trend towards disagreement or avoidance from the more youthful that are taking part.

Millennials and Gen Z every where (not just Russia) are more inclined to shown apathy toward any of their government action. Especially if they see it as only benefits some old dudes that according to many of them should have been retired (or even gone to grave).

Many Russian digital millennials leave Russia and end up in Turkey. Many because they want to get open internet access, or not want to be shown support Putin. Personally I don't have to look far, there are many Digital Millennials from both Russia and Ukraine in Bali. Interestingly even before this invasion but after Crimea, most of them stay and build communities together. Talk to some of them couple months ago in Cangu Bali (where many of those Digital Millennials/ Digital Nomads stay), and from both those Ukrainian and Russian digital nomads, they are saying both Zelensky and Putin are only works for Oligarchs behind them.

Shown how many those digitals generation basically already fell disconnected from old dudes that run the country.

Still even Kremlin supporters are beginning to be quite critical:

Игорь Стрелков: Сложно судить о том, насколько Москва понимала, что спецоперация будет долгой и тяжёлой

По всей видимости, в Кремле полагали, что наше наступление станет развиваться очень быстро

svpressa.ru

This interview with one of ex Donbas official, which basically in the interview saying quite critically that Kremlin military and Intelligence base their assumption wrongly. He say if Russian move toward all South and East Ukraine (not just Crimea) in 2014 at that time most of population will welcome them with flowers. That 2014 window according to him, should be the right moment for separate Republic for Ethnic Russian in Ukraine.

That assumption still being think of many Kremlin planners, when the perception on the East and South Ukraine to Russia already changes. This where he believes Russian got it wrong in the beginning of campaign, and give chances for Ukrainian Army to fortified them selves in the cities.

I put the link to shown even some Russian Nationalist are already see Russia don't have Years to handle Ukraine, but only Months. Off course the interview also shown his goal for Russia to still after Regime changes, and no compromise with Zelensky can be make, as he and people behind him can't be trusted.

I look to both sides argument not finding justification on each side, but more on the thinking process and potential changes. As it can shown how far the potential time table and support coming from each internal sides for the end game.

Add:
My device has build in Automatic Google translate to English. Still the sites compatible with Google translate.

 

[QEDdeq]

This conflict, in my humble opinion, is going much deeper than just the Ukrainian issue. This is about changing the status quo of the world order. Russia as a former empire can not accept that through globalization it can be punished for behaving how it wants. All these globalization related things like SWIFT enabled transactions, assets blocking in foreign banks, social media, etc can be weaponized and effectively used to punish whoever doesn't conform.

Now we could speak what ''conform'' means, we could have a discussion what is national sovereignty and so on. But its pointless, the reality is that in the globalized world there is a hierarchy and nation states (except one) are not at the top of it. This is what Russia is trying to change. They have said it repeatedly that they want to reverse the world from the current unipolar model to a bi (or multi) polar model.

Now, I'm not sure who fell into who's trap. We in the West took a big gamble with the unprecedented level of sanctions. The bet is probably that Russia will quickly fall back from Ukraine, trying to get a face saving deal (e.g. Ukraine says they wont join Nato, decision which a future president and parliament could then later reverse). Then heavy sanctions will create internal conditions for regime change inside Russia. But the risk is that by prolonging the crisis - which Putin seems intend on doing - he will shake the global economy (see energy and food prices skyrocketing) and thus create social unrest in many parts of the globe (Africa) with potential for revolts, new leaders coming to power and looking for friends, mass migration and the internal instability it can potentially bring to Europe if the migratory waves are too large. The real battlefield in this game is: can Putin keep internal control inside Russia while doing this? If yes, then he might succeed when the West calculus will say that the growing instability is to damaging to the global order and that accommodating some of Russia's demands would be an acceptable compromise. If Putin can't keep internal stability than the West will succeed. But at the moment it doesn't look like Putin's internal circle is ready to abandon him. So his game plan - create chaos in the global economy until the West is pushed to come to the negotiation table where Russia can demand sort of a new world order - may as well succeed. We are spectators to this titanic struggle perhaps a similar moment in history to the fall of the Berlin's wall.

 

[phreeky]

The bet is probably that Russia will quickly fall back from Ukraine, trying to get a face saving deal (e.g. Ukraine says they wont join Nato, decision which a future president and parliament could then later reverse). Then heavy sanctions will create internal conditions for regime change inside Russia. But the risk is that by prolonging the crisis - which Putin seems intend on doing - he will shake the global economy

I think that many of the countries enforcing sanctions will be quite aware and prepared to accept pain from this for quite some time. Russia was a big player in energy in europe plus grain, but economically more inline with a regional/middle power.

Poorer countries will sadly suffer, particularly when it comes to grain availability. A lot of wealthier countries will pay a bit more for grain and fuel but otherwise it will be mostly normal.

I expect others to be greatly impacted are those that rely on Russian military hardware. There will probably be serious concerns about delivery of orders, spare parts, support etc. Not to mention those whom relied on the Ukrainian aviation industry.

 

[phreeky]

Perhaps I'm focusing more on US and Western mainstream media. Still the independent media or channel from US and West that I found also more in line with mainstream media.

This is an example of a report from DW news (German public broadcaster in English) that is generally fairly well regarded:

Here is an recent ABC News (Australia) report (Australian public broadcaster):

Sure if I watch some commercial stations they'll hype things up one way or the other. That's typical. They'll make whatever "sells". Most with a genuine interest in international affairs wouldn't rely on those commercial stations though.