The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

And what make Ukraine will not break their agreement as they did on Minsk accord ? It work both ways. All has to be clear on the details. Ukraine want guarantee so does Russia.

Again is their blood in the ground now, it is both of them that has to reach compromise.

Russia also did not honor the Minsk agreement so as you say it goes both ways.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The shark of odessa has sadly done a terrible job, could not even sink one measly russian ship...

The deak snake island martytr, the dead kadyrov general, 15 aircraft destroyed in the kherson attack, its a worrying amount of false news being presented as news in mainstream media is too high. The retractions once proven false are very low key too.

Vasiliy Bykov patrol ship returns to Crimea. No sign of the damage despite Ukraine claiming they hit it with a Grad strike.

So the Project 22160 patrolboat Vasiliy Bykov is totally not destroyed and sinked by the Ukrainian armed forces. I just wonder what is hit by the Ukrainian artillery rockets, maybe one of those Panamese ships mentioned in post #1668.

 

[Ananda]

Russia also did not honor the Minsk agreement so as you say it goes both ways.

Yes, it goes both ways. Both of them have records on breaking agreement. So now come back on both of them whether they want lasting compromise or just temporary reprive.

 

[seaspear]

I saw this article on the 4 Russian amphibious ships off Japan speculated to be heading for Ukraine

Russian ships seen in Japan strait, may be carrying troops to Ukraine

Four Russian warships were spotted sailing through a strait in northeastern Japan on March 16, possibly transporting troops and combat vehicles to Ukraine, the Japanese Defense Ministry said.

english.kyodonews.net

If the Dardanelle straits are still closed how would they reach this area?

 

[Vivendi]

So the Project 22160 patrolboat Vasiliy Bykov is totally not destroyed and sinked by the Ukrainian armed forces. I just wonder what is hit by the Ukrainian artillery rockets, maybe one of those Panamese ships mentioned in post #1668.

Maybe, or maybe not. The Drive has a story on this.

There's no indication, one way or another, that the video of the burning ship offshore that is associated with the claimed attack on Vasily Bykov was fabricated. In fact, it seems more likely than not that the video, at its core, is legitimate, though it may show another vessel on fire.

On February 25, a day after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, the Moldovan-flagged chemical tanker MV Millennial Spirit was reportedly struck by a Russian missile in the western end of the Black Sea some 18 miles southeast of the Ukrainian port city of Odesa. That incident reportedly left two members of the ship's 12-person crew, all of who were Russian nationals, seriously injured. Video footage, seen below, subsequently emerged showing the ship ablaze and emitting the same kind of thick black smoke seen in the video purportedly of the damaged Vasiliy Bykov.

The Curious Case Of Russia's 'Back From The Dead' Warship That Ukraine Supposedly Struck (thedrive.com)

 

[Ananda]

saw this article on the 4 Russian amphibious ships off Japan speculated to be heading for Ukraine

From this article, seems they are from Vladivostock entering sea of Japan then through Tsugaru straits. Seems indicating they are going North. If they are going to Dardaneles, they'll move south. I suspect since this is already mid March, some Russian artic passage already passable.



Russian inland waterways actually quite extensive. It is where Russian move fleet from Black Sea and Caspian back and forth. It is also can be use moving ships from North to south.

The locks on this inland waterways seems can handle ships up to 160m+ (according to online sources). So theoritically they can send those ships from North to Black Sea (if that's what's Russian intentions).

 

[Vivendi]

The US is sending Switchblade, so far it's not clear whether it's the 300, the larger 600 or both.

Perhaps most likely the smaller 300 since it's already in stock? They have different target profiles.
Ukraine Will Get Switchblade Suicide Drones As Part Of New U.S. Aid Package Lawmaker Says (thedrive.com)


On another note, I am surprised that Ukraine has not been able to sink Russian ships. Lack of sensors, missiles or both? navalnews.com is asking similar questions:

Another surprise was that the Ukrainian army did not use their Neptune coastal anti-ship missiles, which have a range of approximately 300 kilometers. These missiles are capable of deterring BSF and preventing them from operating easily off the coast of Ukraine. There is no information available about the Neptune missiles, such as whether they were shot down by Russian ships’ air defense systems or whether the batteries were destroyed by the Russian air strike. The lack of use of these missiles raised the question of whether they are currently operational, despite the fact that the Ukrainian media reported that the Ukraine Armed Forces acquired the first batch of the missiles in March 2021.

Russia-Ukraine conflict: What happened in the Black Sea so far? - Naval News

It seems nobody has delivered anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. Atlantic Council suggest the NSM missile currently operated by Poland could be useful. To my knowledge Norway does not operate land-based NSM missiles yet, only ship-based. Not sure how far the US have progressed with land based NMS. Are there no other land based missiles available from countries that support Ukraine?
Russia Crisis Military Assessment: The weapons Ukraine needs most to win the war - Atlantic Council

 

[Atunga]

"the west" has made some mistakes, but I strongly disagree that it shares "guilt and blame in equal proportion as Putin." There are no excuses to justify invading a sovereign country unprovoked. It is a clear breach of international humanitarian law. The IJC agrees: UN international court of justice orders Russia to halt invasion of Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian

NATO, and in particular the US was willing to find a "middle ground" however Russia refused to accept the proposals of the US and NATO. Putin demanded too much and was not willing to enter serious negotiations. A combination of harsh economic sanctions and a war that is not going very well for Russia, has made them interested in sanctions.

Russia insist on her "red lines", but so does NATO. I have not seen any "red lines" from NATO that I strongly disagree with. I cannot say the same for Russia's "red lines".

The clash of Red lines has turned into a hot war which could have been avoided if diplomats on both sides did their jobs effectively. Russia pissed off with Ukraine for a long time because of NATO aspirations and the treatment of the donbass people, held Ukraine at gun point demanding security guarantees from Ukrainian sponsors in the west. In my opinion the West betrayed Ukraine , the west knew Ukraine will be run over but encouraged Ukraine to fight then supplied them weapons to kill the Russians, all the while threatening Russia that soldiers will return home in body bags.. something that pissed the Russians off even more.. there are other countries in the region that have neutral status and are not NATO members, why not tick that box for Moscow and this war would have been avoided.. you push Ukraine into a war with Russia and you leave them to fight on their own.. why?

 

[Atunga]

No.
This is Mr Putin choice, it's his responsibility alone, just as it was Hitler's when he began his rampage last century.
No one else shares any responsibility, every death goes on Mr Putins account.
This is an unnecessary. unjustified and immoral war.

The problem with this is that the Russians think the exact opposite, that’s why Russians are dying now, fighting for what they believe is their national security, Putin may be mad, but are all Russians mad? There seems to be strong support in Russia for this war

 

[Feanor]

No.
This is Mr Putin choice, it's his responsibility alone, just as it was Hitler's when he began his rampage last century.
No one else shares any responsibility, every death goes on Mr Putins account.
This is an unnecessary. unjustified and immoral war.

Not every death. Distributing weapons to civilians in an uncontrolled manner is not a forseeable consequence of the invasion, and the deaths that have resulted from thousands (tens of thousands?) of civilians being handed weapos in Kiev and Zaporozhye are straight on the account of whoever made that decision. If reports that Ukrainian forces are preventing civilians from leaving turn out to be true, then those deaths are also not on Putin.

On another note, I am surprised that Ukraine has not been able to sink Russian ships. Lack of sensors, missiles or both? navalnews.com is asking similar questions:

Russia-Ukraine conflict: What happened in the Black Sea so far? - Naval News

It seems nobody has delivered anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. Atlantic Council suggest the NSM missile currently operated by Poland could be useful. To my knowledge Norway does not operate land-based NSM missiles yet, only ship-based. Not sure how far the US have progressed with land based NMS. Are there no other land based missiles available from countries that support Ukraine?
Russia Crisis Military Assessment: The weapons Ukraine needs most to win the war - Atlantic Council

Ukraine has domestic Neptune AShMs.

Maybe, or maybe not. The Drive has a story on this.



The Curious Case Of Russia's 'Back From The Dead' Warship That Ukraine Supposedly Struck (thedrive.com)

This was actually the conclusion of some Russian social media discussions as well, that the footage is of a civilian ship on fire and being passed off as a Russian warship by Ukrainian sources. If the sources are in earnest, it could indicate that Ukraine hit a civilian ship with a Grad strike.

 

[Vivendi]

Slovakia has "in principle" agreed to send S-300 to Ukraine, provided that they get a suitable replacement Slovakia preliminarily agrees to send key air defense system to Ukraine - CNN

S-300 systems can potentially be as useful as the MiG-29 that US and some other NATO members did not want to transfer.

Unless the parties manage to find an agreement, it will take quite some time before this war is over. Another analysis of how difficult it will be for Russia to occupy Easter Ukraine: Vladimir Putin Has Almost No Chance of Successfully Occupying Ukraine | RealClearDefense

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for sharing.
This UAV is probably a Forpost-R, maybe someone can confirm this.


According to nos.nl the mayor of Melitopol is abducted by Russian troops a couple of days ago. And now he is rescued in a special operation by Ukrainian soldiers.
Are the Ukrainian commandos that good or the Russians so bad that they can't even guard a single man?

|"13 UUR GELEDEN
'Ontvoerde burgemeester Melitopol bevrijd'

De opgepakte burgemeester van de Zuid-Oekraïense stad Melitopol is vrij. Dat meldt een woordvoerder van de Oekraïense president Zelensky op Telegram. Ivan Fedorov zou tijdens een speciale operatie van Oekraïense militairen zijn bevrijd."|

It appears he was less rescued and more exchanged for 9 Russian conscripts taken POW by Ukraine.

Melitopol Mayor exchanged for nine Russian POWs

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov has been released from captivity in exchange for nine captured Russian servicemen. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Russia also did not honor the Minsk agreement so as you say it goes both ways.

This is substantively untrue. If you get into the nitty gritty of it, yes both sides violated the agreement. However the fundamental issue was Ukraine's unwillingness to implement the agreement as it was written. It would have been rather strange for rebel forces to observe a ceasefire that wasn't being observed by Ukraine, or to hand over control of the border, when Ukraine hadn't executed on the pre-requisites for that to take place. Had Ukraine been willing to implement the Minsk accords, Russia would not have been the holdup. The entire reason for this conflict being in a diplomatic stalemate was that a peace agreement signed after a crippling military defeat by Ukraine essentially cemented a Russian military victory with a political agreement Russia was happy with. Ukraine then simply refused to carry out the agreement, counting on western diplomatic and economic pressure to deter Russia from resuming the fighting. Russia wanted western countries to force Ukraine to honor their part, and they chose not to. Hence there was no way forward. Ukraine regularly suggested amending the Minsk accords but their proposed amendments amounted to "give us the stuff we want out of it, and then we can talk about doing our part".

 

[Vivendi]

Ukraine has domestic Neptune AShMs.

That's what some sources say, but are they actually operational? The same question was raised in the article I linked to.

This was actually the conclusion of some Russian social media discussions as well, that the footage is of a civilian ship on fire and being passed off as a Russian warship by Ukrainian sources. If the sources are in earnest, it could indicate that Ukraine hit a civilian ship with a Grad strike.

...or it could be the ship that was hit by Russia, as suggested in the article I linked to.

 

[swerve]

Why there can't be a logic he will stop after Ukraine ? What's wrong with the logic that he will not move to NATO eastern members, unless he's being push too. He already says his red line is Ukraine. He wants and wish NATO to pull back from East, but he doesn't say it's his Red line.

The problem is that his red line moves. Every time he gains ground, his red line moves forward. It's always somewhere he hasn't reached yet. And it's vague.

I'm talking about the his red line, has he ever saying Finland and Sweden also his red line ? Off course he's going to say Russia will not like Sweden and Finland to joining NATO. However did Putin position put them as Red Line too ?

He's threatened them with terrible consequences. Of course, the logical response to that is for them to join NATO, to get protection.

That's what I'm saying different perspective and different logic from beginning. West can't accept that for Russia the other ex USSR is their Red Line. Putin already see Russia being trick on letting ex Baltic joining NATO, he will not let that happen again with Ukraine for one thing.

See above. He keeps moving the goalposts. The only consistent thing is expansion. He's seized parts of Georgia, annexed Crimea, taken effective contol of parts of eastern Ukraine, moved troops into Belarus . . .

He's demanded that the Baltic states should be effectively demilitarised. They're currently defended by rather lightly equipped local forces & a token NATO tripwire of a handful (usually a number in single figures: sometimes just four) fighter aircraft for air policing, since they don't have any combat aircraft of their own. Putin pretends this is a threat.

Poland has had other NATO troops only for training & on exercises. Hungary has a base for transport aircraft. Slovakia, Romania & Bulgaria - nothing IIRC. Putin pretends these are daggers threatening the heart of Russia. But all those countries joined NATO for one reason only: they were frightened of Russia.

You're twisting my word, I'm talking on NATO vs Russia. Russia and Ukraine is just part of the consequences. Whatever Ukraine and Russia going to do in their own compromise is their own problem. It is their blood that spilled right now, not Western blood.

That's next, after victory in Ukraine. As I said, Putin's been consistent. Grab & hold. Interpret western unwillingness to risk western lives, & economic engagement with Russia, as weakness to be exploited.

He's been given the benefit of the doubt by a lot of westerners. Many of those people are now outraged. They feel betrayed. Look at Germany. Spending even 1.5% of GDP on defence, or selling weapons to anyone who might actually use them, was unpopular with Germans. They're now backing a massive increase in military spending & giving lots of weapons to Ukraine.

Germany & many other westerners have been trying to be friendly to Russia. Putin's spat in their faces. What do you expect them to do?

 

[Feanor]

That's what some sources say, but are they actually operational? The same question was raised in the article I linked to.

Yes, this we don't really know. It was tested pre-war, but whether it's really working or not is anyones guess.

...or it could be the ship that was hit by Russia, as suggested in the article I linked to.

It sure could be. We will have to wait and see what comes of this. Maybe it will be possible to determine what hit it based on survivor reports and the damage. Presumably an MLRS strike would look different from an AShM strike.

 

[Feanor]

The problem is that his red line moves. Every time he gains ground, his red line moves forward. It's always somewhere he hasn't reached yet. And it's vague.


He's threatened them with terrible consequences. Of course, the logical response to that is for them to join NATO, to get protection.


See above. He keeps moving the goalposts. The only consistent thing is expansion. He's seized parts of Georgia, annexed Crimea, taken effective contol of parts of eastern Ukraine, moved troops into Belarus . . .

He's demanded that the Baltic states should be effectively demilitarised. They're currently defended by rather lightly equipped local forces & a token NATO tripwire of a handful (usually a number in single figures: sometimes just four) fighter aircraft for air policing, since they don't have any combat aircraft of their own. Putin pretends this is a threat.

Poland has had other NATO troops only for training & on exercises. Hungary has a base for transport aircraft. Slovakia, Romania & Bulgaria - nothing IIRC. Putin pretends these are daggers threatening the heart of Russia. But all those countries joined NATO for one reason only: they were frightened of Russia.


That's next, after victory in Ukraine. As I said, Putin's been consistent. Grab & hold. Interpret western unwillingness to risk western lives, & economic engagement with Russia, as weakness to be exploited.

He's been given the benefit of the doubt by a lot of westerners. Many of those people are now outraged. They feel betrayed. Look at Germany. Spending even 1.5% of GDP on defence, or selling weapons to anyone who might actually use them, was unpopular with Germans. They're now backing a massive increase in military spending & giving lots of weapons to Ukraine.

Germany & many other westerners have been trying to be friendly to Russia. Putin's spat in their faces. What do you expect them to do?

I expect them to do exactly what they're doing now. Unite in the face of Russian aggression, increase their defense spending, and look out for their interests. I think you've correctly highlited an issue that many people are missing in this situation. It's not Russia vs The West. Russia mainly had issues with the US, and mainly had a productive partnership with various EU member states. NATO is mostly in Europe. For quite some time Russia did a decent job of separating headbutting with the US from their relationship with Europe. But it seems like over the past ~6-9 months this has gone to hell in a handbasket. Russia has lumped all of them together, and proceeded to treat all as a single hostile entity. This is of course fundamentally false. I'm really curious as to what caused this change. Russian foreign policy towards the west went from carefully nuanced attempts to balance in difficult situations and continue to build bridges where possible, straight to Cold War 2.0. Something must have prompted this, but that something might very well be internal to Russia, not external.

 

[HelBattery]

An interesting, prophetic analysis by Ted Carpenter of the libertarian Cato Institute, published in November 2021:

NATO Arms Sales to Ukraine: the Spark That Starts a War with Russia?

 

[Ananda]

He keeps moving the goalposts. The only consistent thing is expansion. He's seized parts of Georgia, annexed Crimea, taken effective contol of parts of eastern Ukraine, moved troops into Belarus . . .

Still it is not showing that he will move toward Eastern European Nato Members. His logic so far is puting the red line on Nato expansion toward ex USSR Republic. He's already talking several times that Nato especialy US trick Russia on eastern expansion, however his biggest 'anger' on Nato eastward expansion were the Baltics.

Thus his red line logic so far is to make sure no other ex USSR Republic that going to enter NATO. All his movement so far to that, and not shown he will cross the line and invade Nato members, even the Baltics trio.

My post mostly to repply the Western thinking that after Ukraine he will invade Eastern Nato members. I'm just repply so far his action is consistent in to ensuring no other ex USSR Republic that ever going to think joining Nato. Not crossing the line invading Nato members.

Germany & many other westerners have been trying to be friendly to Russia. Putin's spat in their faces. What do you expect them to do?

What they should do from begining, increase NATO especialy the Euro Zone members defense by their own. Perhaps on this one Trump is right, European is already taking their defense too granted. You always buy your security by enhancing your own defense.

Afterall even liberal media in US like CNN say chances 'he' will come back in 2024 still quite big.

Are there no other land based missiles available from countries that support Ukraine?

Marte: Mobile Coastal Defence System | Maritime Superiority, MARITIME STRIKE | MBDA

The MARTE mobile coastal defence system has the capability to launch both MARTE MK2/N and / or MARTE ER missile.

www.mbda-systems.com

This one already operational, not sure on Exocet MM40 shore based. Both of them MBDA try to sell in the Asia Pacific market. Still it is MBDA, and that's mean it is expensive, more expensive then anything US and West so far supply. Not sure whose willing to bankroll that.

 

[Twain]

Slovakia has "in principle" agreed to send S-300 to Ukraine, provided that they get a suitable replacement Slovakia preliminarily agrees to send key air defense system to Ukraine - CNN

S-300 systems can potentially be as useful as the MiG-29 that US and some other NATO members did not want to transfer.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504461845893156867

 

[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504461845893156867

If you understand it, do you mind translating? My German is extremely limited.