The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[wittmanace]

If you understand it, do you mind translating? My German is extremely limited.

We further increase/heighten our engagement on the East flank: in order to support the integrated #NATO air defense, we are relocating/deploying PATRIOT systems to Slovakia, thereby strengthening the alliance's ability/capability to respond/react and deter.

 

[HelBattery]

If you understand it, do you mind translating? My German is extremely limited.

"We further increase our commitment to the eastern flank: in support of integrated #NATO air defense, we are deploying PATRIOT systems to the Slovakia - thereby strengthening the alliance's response and deterrence capabilities."

Edit: @wittmanace translated it before and did it better. Post to be deleted.

 

[MarcH]

Lends some credibility to the reports of Slovakian S-300's given to Ukraine.

 

[Rob c]

Maybe, or maybe not. The Drive has a story on this.



The Curious Case Of Russia's 'Back From The Dead' Warship That Ukraine Supposedly Struck (thedrive.com)

Again I would caution anyone on believing all that comes out of this war. In this case, the question needs to be asked, "Is it in fact even the same ship ,or just an other of the same class made up to seem like the ship in question., or are the Ukrainian's wrong?

 

[Feanor]

Again I would caution anyone on believing all that comes out of this war. In this case, the question needs to be asked, "Is it in fact even the same ship ,or just an other of the same class made up to seem like the ship in question., or are the Ukrainian's wrong?

They have hull numbers. It's in principle possible that Russia carefull repainted it while at sea, but it's not very likely. I don't think anyone seriously suggests that the ship sank, and only a small handful of these patrol ships exist. So over the next few weeks it will become obvious if one of the ships is mysteriously missing or shows up damaged.

 

[Twain]

They have hull numbers. It's in principle possible that Russia carefull repainted it while at sea, but it's not very likely. I don't think anyone seriously suggests that the ship sank, and only a small handful of these patrol ships exist. So over the next few weeks it will become obvious if one of the ships is mysteriously missing or shows up damaged.

Maybe not that easy

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504537204370329603

 

[Twain]

Just an update on losses

Russia - 1480, of which: destroyed: 675, damaged: 24, abandoned: 217, captured: 563
Ukraine - 373, of which: destroyed: 143, damaged: 5, abandoned: 48, captured: 177

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

I think it's safe to sat the russian losses are underrepresented and the ukranian losses are VERY underrepresented

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504534372195651592

The question is which army falls apart first? These kind of losses in just 3 weeks are catastrophic.

 

[John Fedup]

Just an update on losses

Russia - 1480, of which: destroyed: 675, damaged: 24, abandoned: 217, captured: 563
Ukraine - 373, of which: destroyed: 143, damaged: 5, abandoned: 48, captured: 177

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

I think it's safe to sat the russian losses are underrepresented and the ukranian losses are VERY underrepresented

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504534372195651592

The question is which army falls apart first? These kind of losses in just 3 weeks are catastrophic.

Possibly the KIA numbers will be the biggest problem for Russia. It won’t be easy explaining why thousands of young Russian men are dying in the Ukraine fighting phantom Nazi hordes and people at home are suffering brutal sanctions despite the righteous intervention (according to Putin).

 

[phreeky]

Not every death. Distributing weapons to civilians in an uncontrolled manner is not a forseeable consequence of the invasion, and the deaths that have resulted from thousands (tens of thousands?) of civilians being handed weapos in Kiev and Zaporozhye are straight on the account of whoever made that decision.

Any country with their sovereignty threatened to this extent would take such measures.

Dare I suggest that if Russia were invaded to a relatively similar extent that they'd be taking far more extreme actions such as launching nuclear weapons?

TBH I think it is amazing that this somehow hasn't resulted in Ukraine getting a hold of something that could be launched into Russian territory. Retaliatory attacks are typically what I would've expected. I'm assuming those supporting Russia have laid down some very strict rules on the weapons being supplied and their reach.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Just an update on losses

Russia - 1480, of which: destroyed: 675, damaged: 24, abandoned: 217, captured: 563
Ukraine - 373, of which: destroyed: 143, damaged: 5, abandoned: 48, captured: 177

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

I think it's safe to sat the russian losses are underrepresented and the ukranian losses are VERY underrepresented

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504534372195651592

The question is which army falls apart first? These kind of losses in just 3 weeks are catastrophic.

I think such lists are totally unreliable. How does Oryxspioenkop get all those numbers? Do the Russian and Ukrainian department of defences report them directly to Oryxspioenkop? Or does Oryxspioenkop have thousands of intelligence agents on the battlefield?

Maybe Oryxspioenkop is more reliable than GFP, but still....

 

[Twain]

I think such lists are totally unreliable. How does Oryxspioenkop get all those numbers? Do the Russian and Ukrainian department of defences report them directly to Oryxspioenkop? Or does Oryxspioenkop have thousands of intelligence agents on the battlefield?

Maybe Oryxspioenkop is more reliable than GFP, but still....

He's talked many times about how he does it on his twitter account. His list is pretty darn accurate. it is missing quite a few losses because every loss doesn't get reported.

He uses pictures or video that are sent to him, via telegram, twitter etc. of each individual loss. he individually identifies each loss by visual verification, any identifying features, location data if available etc. He compares each picture to all previous pictures of that type of equipment. I also know from talking to him if anyone finds any duplicates, he removes the duplicate. (which is why from time to time his count goes down by one or two. If you are going to call him unreliable at least provide some evidence.

 

[Twain]

Possibly the KIA numbers will be the biggest problem for Russia. It won’t be easy explaining why thousands of young Russian men are dying in the Ukraine fighting phantom Nazi hordes and people at home are suffering brutal sanctions despite the righteous intervention (according to Putin).

In the near term, you are absolutely right and IMHO the roughly 7000 KIA estimates are low when you consider these kind of known equipment losses. The question is will it be enough to change Putin's intentions? I expect lot of nuclear saber rattling in the next few weeks if things don't turn around dramatically in the near future.

Long term, Russia is going to be a decade or more reforming/repairing the damage to their military.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

He's talked many times about how he does it on his twitter account. His list is pretty darn accurate. it is missing quite a few losses because every loss doesn't get reported.

He uses pictures or video that are sent to him, via telegram, twitter etc. of each individual loss. he individually identifies each loss by visual verification, any identifying features, location data if available etc. He compares each picture to all previous pictures of that type of equipment. I also know from talking to him if anyone finds any duplicates, he removes the duplicate. (which is why from time to time his count goes down by one or two. If you are going to call him unreliable at least provide some evidence.

Then he does an amazing job, specially if he does it all alone. This is just a full-time job.

 

[Pentaprism]

"the west" has made some mistakes, but I strongly disagree that it shares "guilt and blame in equal proportion as Putin." There are no excuses to justify invading a sovereign country unprovoked. It is a clear breach of international humanitarian law. The IJC agrees: UN international court of justice orders Russia to halt invasion of Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian

NATO, and in particular the US was willing to find a "middle ground" however Russia refused to accept the proposals of the US and NATO. Putin demanded too much and was not willing to enter serious negotiations. A combination of harsh economic sanctions and a war that is not going very well for Russia, has made them interested in sanctions.

Russia insist on her "red lines", but so does NATO. I have not seen any "red lines" from NATO that I strongly disagree with. I cannot say the same for Russia's "red lines".

I agree Putin has made a terrible mistake invading Ukraine, it's a disaster for both Countries. But to suggest it was "unprovoked" shows a degree of Geopolitical naivety in my opinion.

The US was very active in the Maidan Revolution and the ousting of President Yanukovych;

https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

They then pumped a lot of weapons into Ukraine and encouraged them to take a firm stance against Russia;

U.S. Security Cooperation With Ukraine - United States Department of State

Ukraine is a key regional strategic partner that has undertaken significant efforts to reform its military and increase its interoperability with NATO. Our policy is centered on supporting Ukraine as it advances reforms to strengthen democratic institutions, fight corruption, and promote...

www.state.gov

.

Continuity and change in America’s military partnership with Ukraine - Middle East Institute

www.mei.edu

The current mess was predicted, quite accurately IMO, by this Guy;

To me this is tragic example of a bunch of megalomaniac Politicians over playing their hands. Citizens around the World are paying a huge price for their egos, especially in Ukraine and Russia obviously, and may yet pay a greater price if things get Nuclear.

Putin overestimated how effective his Military was and underestimated the effect of sanctions. Ukraine thought being Pals with the west would save them from Russian attack, they should have learnt from the Georgian War that it wouldn't. And the US thought they could get away with meddling in Politics anywhere in the World when they should have known it wasn't going to go down well somewhere that close and that important to Russia.

Now the US is fighting this War down to the very last Ukrainian and I believe there are plenty in Washington who are not upset this is happening. To the contrary they probably see it as a brilliant chance to weaken their adversary and proof their Ukraine strategy is working just fine. And there is no sign of any regret with the course they have chosen, to the contrary Biden is accelerating the Militarisation of Ukraine to record levels;

US aid to Ukraine: $13.6 billion approved following Russian bombardment marks sharp increase

The money is evenly split between military support and funds for economic, humanitarian and other needs.

theconversation.com

What we are seeing is the bitter embers from the Cold War being reignited by a bunch of incompetent Dinosaurs who cannot escape their Cold War mentality and find positive ways to move the World forward.

 

[cdxbow]

....To me this is tragic example of megalomaniac Mr Putin over playing his hand. Citizens around the World are paying a huge price for his egos, especially in Ukraine and Russia obviously, and may yet pay a greater price if things get Nuclear.

I've fixed your comments to more accurately reflect current realty.
John Mersheimer has controversial views about how international relations work. If you follow his logic to international relations, small European countries should have accommodated the Nazi's last century. Do you really believe that?

 

[Twain]

Then he does an amazing job, specially if he does it all alone. This is just a full-time job.

He's not doing it alone, he has some help but he is apparently limiting his team too 40-75 new entries on an avg day and just letting them pile up until he can get to them. I see some losses not show up on his list for 3-4 days. It wouldn't surprise me is the actual total for russia is over 2000. I have no idea what ukranian losses are sine they have much better security about this. Ukranians in general don't take pictures of Ukrainian losses and apparently they took all the cell phones away from russian troops.

 

[koxinga]

At this rate of losses (even if it is under reported), I can't see how Russia can continue for another month.

If I was Putin, I will concentrate on securing targets like Mariupol and Kharkiv as they have symbolic and strategic value and drop big fancy goals like taking Kyiv.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

At this rate of losses (even if it is under reported), I can't see how Russia can continue for another month.

If I was Putin, I will concentrate on securing targets like Mariupol and Kharkiv as they have symbolic and strategic value and drop big fancy goals like taking Kyiv.

Maybe he is also planning to do this. Even without all those boycots and embargoes, war is expensive.

 

[Ananda]

will concentrate on securing targets like Mariupol and Kharkiv as they have symbolic and strategic value and drop big fancy goals like taking Kyiv.

Russian strategy so far seems circling and cut off one City and working out grinding toward destroying the defense. In some way it's like USSR strategy when they are begin to move into German held territories. That's why the Eastern Europe theater is much bloodier then Western theater.

Mariupol is I believe on the final stage of that strategy. While Kharkiv in the next one. They're doing it systematic one by one. This's part of war of attrition, and it will cost both of them heavy, but will be heavier in Russian part.

Add:
One problem on this kind of strategy asside heavy losses on attacking army, also give the defensive army chances to blurred which target is civilian and military. This's work well for Ukraine propaganda. In short this kind of war will not only costing Russia more on resources, but also on propaganda war domestically and Internationally.

 

[Feanor]

At this rate of losses (even if it is under reported), I can't see how Russia can continue for another month.

If I was Putin, I will concentrate on securing targets like Mariupol and Kharkiv as they have symbolic and strategic value and drop big fancy goals like taking Kyiv.

Major Russian activity outside LDNR areas has stopped. Russia is engaging in positional warfare exchanges around Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, and Kiev. No offensive are being undertaken there. There are only three major areas of offensive action; the city of Mariupol', the north-eastward thrust out of Zaporozhye area, and the south-westward thrust through Izyum, though that one has encountered stiff resistance. Rebel forces, namely LNR, are continuing the push on Lisichansk-Severodonetsk. It's obvious to me that the intent is to close the pocket around the Donetsk-Gorlovka force grouping, and either force a mass surrender (leading into a Minsk 3.0) or destroy those forces completely and leave the rest of Ukraine vulnerable. It seems likely rebel formations will see increased usage for rear security work, and Russia will instead be able to direct masses of freed up troops towards Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk, or northward to assist in the assaults on Kharkov-Sumy-Chernigov. Whether those later moves actually materialize or merely serve as implied threats to force Ukraine to negotiate is unclear.