The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
On internet there are now appearing reports/posts about Russian amphibious ships approaching Berdyansk. I don't understand, wasn't this area already under control of Russian troops? I thought this area was already conquered in the first days of the war, being so south-east in Ukraine and close to Donetsk Oblast and the Russian border.








It is quite remarkable that the US is angry that Russian bombers attacked a military base in northern Ukraine with cruise missiles. I mean, this is war.

|"The Daily Mirror has learned Ukrainian and western intelligence agencies believe Russian GRU and SVR spy agencies had “turned” foreign fighters on the base."|

Also funny is the word choice in this article.
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
I don't think this has been posted, drone footage from Mariupol shows extensive damage to the city.
I expects it's not been shown on TASS, RT etc
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
quite remarkable that the US is angry that Russian bombers attacked a military base in northern Ukraine with cruise missiles. I mean, this is war.
Some in the west, clearly still have delusional thinking that Russia will not going to come after any Western backed logistical line inside Ukraine. Putin already put that any logistical line in Ukraine coming from West will be legitimate target.

Sending fighters to Ukraine will be part of that logistical line. Both side intelligence services will try to conceal and find information from each other movement. That's how intelligence work.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Very informative indeed.

The only thing I know about Russian logistics is that they use the ''push system'' rather than the ''pull system'' used by various other armies. Under the ''push system'' ammo, supplies and spares are brought forward ready for distribution based on calculated usage. Of course this depends on the stuff being available, sufficient transports and enemy interference.
 

danonz

Member
Russian MOD footage of Ka 52's
Attack helicopters Ka-52 destroy the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including 122-mm self-propelled guns 2S1 "Gvozdika"
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kiev.

Battle damage from Russian strikes in Kiev.


Ukrainian forces in Irpen', Kiev. The town appears divided between Russian and Ukrainian forces.


Antonov Serial Production Plant, the former Aviant, got hit by strikes in Kiev.


Around Kiev.

Two Ukrainian Recon colonels were killed near Kiev, attempting to sneak past Russian lines.


Russian fighters near Kiev. Note the ribbons on their arms.


The North.

A hotel near Chernigov was allegedly being used as a camp for Ukrainian forces and was hit by a strike.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Explosions, fires, and battle damage in Kharkov. Apparently some major strikes took place.


Russian forces, Sumy region.


Russian forces near Kharkov.


Kherson-Nikolaev.

A Russian strike hit a Ukrainian checkpoint in Snegirevka, Nikolaev region, collateral damage to many nearby houses. Allegedly 1 KIA, 5 WIA, unclear if military, civilian, or both.


Pervomayskoe near Nikolaev got hit.


A Russian National Guard checkpoint near Kherson.


A S-300 TEL, Ukrainian, abandoned in Nikolaev region.


Russia has initiated a weapons buy-back program in Melitopol'.


Mariupol'.

Alleged map of the situation in Mariupol'. The area in yellow is where the fighting is supposedly taking place, with the rebels attempting to advance into the town.


Drone footage of fighting in Mariupol'. Heavy damage to residential buildings can be seen.


Combat footage out of Mariupol', mainly the 9th DNR regiment. An abandoned BTR-4 can be seen.


Old combat footage from Volnovakha.


Trophy tanks getting towed out of Volnovakha.


Russian warships enter Berdyansk.


Russian troops enter Berdyansk and take control of the military base there. They got quite a bit in the way of patrol boats, Ukrainian Navy and Coast Guard. At present it appears National Guard are in control of the base. There are a couple of Ukrainian Navy artillery boats, a tugboat, and several border guard boats.


Chechen fighters near Mariupol'.


More footage of the artillery btln in Berdyansk, from the 406th Arty Bde, recently captured by Russia.


Rebel forces in Volnovakha.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

A nasty Tochka missile strike using a cluster munition took place in Donetsk killing 20 civilians and wounding at least 33. No obvious military targets are in the area. Warning footage of corpses.


There are some indications of social media accounts calling civilians to come out and protest in the area hit by the strike above, on the same date and approximately same time as the strike. The protest was supposed to be against the DNR mobilization effort.


Fighting continues in Popasnaya, west of Lugansk. Rebel forces are slowly pushing towards Lisichansk.


Rebel artillery firing at Popasnaya.


Berezovoe, north of Volnovakha, has been taken by DNR forces. Two Ukrainian tanks were destroyed. To further confuse matters in the video you can see a T-64BV rolling around, in clearly Ukrainian camo, but with the Z and clearly in rebel hands. Moving forward identifying which T-64s are Ukrainian and which are rebel will get harder, at least in the LDNR area.


Ukrainian forces near Izyum.


Russian Su-25 over Donetsk.


Captured Ukrainian equipment is being handed over to the rebels. We can see at least 3 T-64BV tanks, a Varta armored car, a BTR-80, and a Msta-B (maybe?) artillery piece. At the end they get a SMAW-D? It doesn't look like an NLAW...


Russian humanitarian aid has been helicoptered in near Izyum.


DNR BMP-2 up-armored with tracks.


An improvised RPG launch rack on DNR MT-LBs.


The West.

More footage of damage to Yavorov training grounds.


Rovno TV tower got hit by a strike.


The town of Antopil', near Rovno, got hit by a strike, allegedly there were Ukrainian forces there.


Misc.

Ka-52 destroys a Ukrainian 2S1 howitzer.


Another allegedly Ukrainian 2S1 howitzer taken out.


A alleged Ukrainian MLRS staging area taken out by a Russian strike.


Russian Orion dropping munitions over Ukraine, locations unknown. Note the unguided munition and the apparent accuracy.


Russian Su-25 hitting a Ukrainian munitions dump, location unknown.


A T-72B3mod'16 presumably captured by Ukraine. Location unknown.


A Russian Su-25SM3 managed to land after taking a MANPADS to the engine. Note, this is far from unique. The Su-25 is known for being able to take a hit and still land.


Assorted photos of Russian and rebel forces in Ukraine.


NATO/EU.

A Russian Orlan-10 UAV has fallen in Romania. Presumably it was operating out of the Black Sea.

 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Questions around the Russian ability to sustain the assault.

I dont know how I feel about these kinds of Analysis.

It is clear that russia struggles with the intensity of ukrainian resistance and it's own logistics.

On the other side there are so many, sometimes ill informed, assumptions about russias objectives, capabilities and so on.

Western "experts" have claimed russia and its armed forces are due to collapse any minute now for the entire time this war is going on, it's becoming a meme. A lot of it is just guess work, most of it is biased.

Mariopol ist close to fall, this will free up considerable troops and we will get some clearity if russia is still able to regain momentum or not.

For conclusive analytics we will have to wait and see how things play out.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Guardian examines Russian claims: Is there any justification for Putin’s war? | Ukraine | The Guardian

I found this one in particular interesting:
Was Russia justified in worrying that Ukraine might join Nato? Not really, said Kristin Bakke, a professor in political science at UCL. “For a long time, support for Nato membership in Ukraine was about 30 to 40%,” she notes, adding that far more people wanted simply to remain neutral.

It wasn’t until last year that surveys showed more than half of Ukrainians wanting Nato membership. And by the time 100,000 Russian troops had amassed on the border, that number had risen to close to 60%.
Had Russia not been aggressive in 2014, and then again in 2022, Ukraine would have not expressed such a strong interest for joining NATO.

Interesting read!
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I dont know how I feel about these kinds of Analysis.

It is clear that russia struggles with the intensity of ukrainian resistance and it's own logistics.
Aren't we doing the same here by 1) trying the separate the facts from the noise of propaganda 2) forming some judgement or opinion on where things are, really?

Other than military competency, this conflict leans heavily on logistics due to the sheer size of the theatre. I'm always keen to hear more from the logisticians along with the odd ball experts (i.e., Trent Telenko on tires)
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
This is why West and Russia not going to see eye to eye. West/NATO say they never shown agreesion to Russia however continue expansion to east, While Russia see NATO/West slowly surrounding and chooking them.

What happened in Ukraine now is something that building in years, and blew out now. Whoever lead Russia and whoever lead West will not change much. Both West and Russia actually never left their Cold War mentality, and this Cold War 2.0 is just consequences of that thinking. Deep down each of them pretty sure the aggression from other side just waiting only to happen.

Whether this Cold War 2.0 going to be hot or stay in boundaries of Cold and Hot as previous Cold War, is everyone guess now.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
This is why West and Russia not going to see eye to eye. West/NATO say they never shown agreesion to Russia however continue expansion to east, While Russia see NATO/West slowly surrounding and chooking them.

What happened in Ukraine now is something that building in years, and blew out now. Whoever lead Russia and whoever lead West will not change much. Both West and Russia actually never left their Cold War mentality, and this Cold War 2.0 is just consequences of that thinking. Deep down each of them pretty sure the aggression from other side just waiting only to happen.
So allowing a country to apply for membership in NATO is "aggression" against Russia? Why? As I have explained NATO is purely a defense organization, tasked with protecting NATO members. It is also based on consensus. This means that NATO cannot launch an attack on Russia unless countries like Germany, Belgium, Italy, Bulgaria and Luxembourg all agree to launching such an attack. If you know anything about European countries and how much they value peace you would have realized how bizarre such a claim actually is. That Russia is claiming otherwise does not change this fact.
 
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