The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM

Well-Known Member
One of the concerns I have about this war is that there is no exit strategy for anyone.
The Russians have an exit strategy or an end game; whether or not they achieve it is the question.

Could NATO allow the Russians to win or will they continue to boost the amount of support they give Ukraine until there is an inevitable clash with Russian forces?
If Russia wins there's not much NATO can do and NATO can't do much more than it's already doing to prevent Russia from winning. I doubt that there's any stomach or political will within NATO for a clash with Russia? The risks are too great.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Russian VDV on the streets of Irpen'.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Artillery exchanges continue in Kharkov.


Civilians lining up for stores in Kharkov.


Cherkasy-Krivoy Rog.

Checkpoints are being set up all over Cherkasy.


Nikolaev-Kherson-Odessa.

A Russian warship remains parked next to Zmeiniy island near Odessa. You know... as opposed to going where it was told to.


A line for humanitarian aid in Kherson.


Mariupol'.

More fighting in Mariupol'. It's possible this is one of Russia's engineer urban assault btlns, with Tayfun-K MRAPs and BTR-82As.


Satellite imagery of fighting in Mariupol'. The city is clearly taking significant damage in the assault.


Civilians remain trapped in the basements of buildings in Mariupol' without water, food, or medication. In the video they are asking for a green corridor to exit the city.


Another destroyed T-64, presumably Ukrainian, buried in the rubble at Volnovakha.


Past footage of Volnovakha.


LDNR Front.

Two Ukrainian T-72AVs and a Uragan transporter-loader destroyed near Varvarovka, Lugansk region. This is near Rubezhnoe where fighting was reported recently.


Battle damage in Kramatorsk. The Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area has gotten hit hard with strikes recently. It seems likely an offensive there is planned.


The West.

More footage from Yavorov training grounds that recently got hit. I can't help but wonder if the point of striking them was to scare away and deter foreign volunteers.


The authorities in Zhitomyr have called on civilians to leave the city of Russian troops approach, and not to resist.


Misc.

A Russian BTR-82A with improvised cage armor and screens. Location unknown.


Italian air force activity in flying to Poland. Presumably supplies for Ukraine.


Chechen fighter making Ukrainian POWs chant "Akhmаt silа" in praise of Akhmat Kadyrov, father of the current Ramzan Kadyrov.


According to official sources 1400 Russian service members have completed medical treatment and are heading to rehabilitation. Presumably this means 1400 heavily wounded personnel that have recovered.

 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Even if operating with infantry, how do you prevent concealed 2 or 3 man teams from targetting your tanks/IFVs when they can be located 4 to 5.5 km away.
By having a forward screening element whose job is to detect such threats and by having a UAS on overwatch.

The firing team can also operate the ATGM Launcher remotely so even if the launcher is hit the soldiers operating it are safe.
ATGWs are almost never operated remotely.

Also one team of 2 or 3 soldiers can have multiple launchers set up
You are looking at things mainly from the perspective of the ambush teams. It's a two street in that the other side can also do various things to counter the ambush team. What happens if the other side has arty which can respond fast; has a recce screen; has a UAS overheard and is trained to react fast?

Have you seen the video of the MBT NLAW ambush posted recently? The Russians reacted very fast.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
That's a fair argument but untill we get this evidence its only guess work.

We also have videos of russian troops handing out considerable amounts of humanitarian aid so the narative that the russian soldiers are starving because of the bad logistics and a lack of food is not completly solid.

As to the expired food I wouldnt hang it too high, it might not be a good look but at the same time also dosnt mean it's actualy bad/rotten. Those meals are made to last for a long time. Still: bad optics.
It's not bad optics. If the food is passed it's use by date by seven years it's basically inedible, especially health wise. Having served in a military, if the troops are being served bad or really out of date food, morale goes out the window because it means that the government and senior leadership doesn't care about them. There's absolutely no excuse for it, especially at the start of a war that you started and had heaps of time to prepare for. Food is absolutely important and yes troops bitch and moan but that's normal. When you see abandoned vehicles and what not in the first two weeks of a war by the attacking invading force that speaks a lot about the morale and capabilities of the troops. The use of civilian issue cellphones for military communications between units is also somewhat startling. The VOX - voice communication is in the clear with little or no attempt to encrypt the communications. Even our bikie gangs have better comms security.
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
It's not bad optics. If the food is passed it's use by date by seven years it's basically inedible, especially health wise. Having served in a military, if the troops are being served bad or really out of date food, morale goes out the window because it means that the government and senior leadership doesn't care about them. There's absolutely no excuse for it, especially at the start of a war that you started and had heaps of time to prepare for. Food is absolutely important and yes troops bitch and moan but that's normal. When you see abandoned vehicles and what not in the first two weeks of a war by the attacking invading force that speaks a lot about the morale and capabilities of the troops. The use of civilian issue cellphones for military communications between units is also somewhat startling. The VOX - voice communication is in the clear with little or no attempt to encrypt the communications. Even our bikie gangs have better comms security.
I was a chef of a certain south pacific university
and i can tell you that 24 hr ration packs are expensive
I had a good look at them for cyclone emergencies for my borders
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
A very interesting poll was done in the Ukraine between 1 - 3 March 2022 by telephone. Ukrainians want to stay and fight, but don't see Russian people as the enemy. A remarkable poll from Kyiv - Lord Ashcroft Polls.

UKRAINE SURVEY – SUMMARY OF RESULTS MARCH 2022
1,040 adults in Ukraine were interviewed by telephone on 1 and 3 March 2022.
Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in Ukraine. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com

1. Do you think each of the following are doing enough to help Ukraine?
NATO​
Yes, enough 23%​
No, not enough 65%​
Refuse/Don’t know 12%​
The EU​
Yes, enough 46%​
No, not enough 45%​
Refuse/Don’t know 9%​
The US​
Yes, enough 44%​
No, not enough 49%​
Refuse/Don’t know 7%​
The UK​
Yes, enough 53%​
No, not enough 35%​
Refuse/Don’t know 12%​
China​
Yes, enough 8%​
No, not enough 74%​
Refuse/Don’t know 18%​
2. Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following?
President Zalensky​
Favourable 92%​
Unfavourable 6%​
Refuse/Don’t know 2%​
The Russian people​
Favourable 14%​
Unfavourable 81% Refuse/Don’t know 5%​
President Putin​
Favourable 2%​
Unfavourable 97%​
Refuse/Don’t know 1%​
The Russian military​
Favourable 2%​
Unfavourable 94%​
Refuse/Don’t know 4%​
President Lukashenko​
Favourable 2%​
Unfavourable 95%​
Refuse/Don’t know 3%​
3. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
I would feel safer if I knew Ukraine had nuclear weapons​
Agree 60%​
Disagree 33%​
Don’t know/Refuse 7%​
If I could leave Ukraine safely tomorrow for another country, I would​
Agree 11%​
Disagree 87%​
Don’t know/Refuse 2%​
I want Ukraine to become a member of NATO​
Agree 86%​
Disagree 9%​
Don’t know/Refuse 5%​
The package of economic sanctions will be effective in bringing an end to the war​
Agree 68%​
Disagree 27%​
Don’t know/Refuse 4%​
Despite our differences, there is more that unites ethnic Russians living in Ukraine and Ukrainians than divides us​
Agree 65%​
Disagree 24%​
Don’t know/Refuse 10%​
4. How safe and secure do you currently feel?
During the day​
Safe 59%​
Unsafe 40%​
Refuse/Don’t know 1%​
During the night​
Safe 41%​
Unsafe 57%​
Refuse/Don’t know 2%​
5. Are you willing to do the following things?
Take up arms to defend your country against Russian troops​
I do it already 7%​
Yes 67%​
No 24%​
Refuse/Don’t know 2%​
Help Ukrainian troops in other ways – shelter, food, clothing etc.​
I do it already​
45%​
Yes 48%​
No 6%​
Refuse/Don’t know 1%​
6. How long do you expect the war that started on 24 February 2022 to continue?
I think it will... end within two weeks 29%​
end by the end of March 27%​
continue for 1 – 3 months 14%​
continue for 4 – 6 months 3%​
continue for 6 – 12 months 3%​
continue for more than a year 6%​
Refuse/Don’t know 18%​
7. If it guaranteed an immediate end to the war, which of President Putin’s scenarios, if any, would you be willing to accept, even if reluctantly?
Officially recognizing Crimea as part of Russia​
Yes, I would be willing to accept 18%​
No, I would not be willing to accept 78%​
Refuse/Don’t know 4%​
A ban on Ukraine entering NATO​
Yes, I would be willing to accept 23%​
No, I would not be willing to accept 69%​
Refuse/Don’t know 8%​
NATO scaling back their troops and weapons in countries bordering Russia​
Yes, I would be willing to accept 26%​
No, I would not be willing to accept 61%​
Refuse/Don’t know 13%​
8. Do you feel that any part of Ukraine is rightfully part of Russia?
Yes 1%​
No 98%​
Refuse/Don’t know 2%​
9. Do you consider your country’s future to be closer to Russia or closer to Europe?
Closer to Russia 3%​
Closer to Europe 93%​
Refuse/Don’t know 4%​
The poll is a small sample size and a snapshot over a three day period, so that has its limitations. It doesn't cover the whole country so it could be argued that this lack of spatial diversity could skew the results. However given the external factors occurring within the subject area I would suggest that this is an unavoidable limitation.

It's interesting that they don't believe that both NATO and the PRC aren't doing enough to help Ukraine and by significant margins. With the EU and the US it could go either because the Refuse/ Don't know cohorts are enough to affect either the yes or no answers. And they believe that the UK is helping them. President Zelenskiy has achieved a 92% approval rating, only 81% of them don't like the Russian people and Putin Lukashenko and the Russian military are all in the 90% quartiles for being disliked. Yet a large majority (65%) believe that more unites ethnic Russians living within Ukraine with Ukrainians than there are differences. A large majority said that they wouldn't leave the country either. There is very strong support for joining NATO they absolutely see themselves as being closer to Europe rather than Russia. Most feel unsafe, especially at night, many have taken up arms and many have also supported the Ukrainian military in one way or another.

Overall it appears that the average Ukrainian wants to be close to Europe, join NATO, thinks very highly of President Zelenskiy, has a very strong dislike of Presidents, Putin and Lukashenko, the Russian military and people, definitely doesn't think that NATO and the PRC have done enough to help them, thinks that the US & EU have done possibly enough but there's plenty of room for improvement.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I was a chef of a certain south pacific university
and i can tell you that 24 hr ration packs are expensive
I had a good look at them for cyclone emergencies for my borders
Yep they are at that, but it's still no excuse at all. You feed your troops good tucker because it's in your best interest to. How many mutinies and desertions have been over and food and conditions down the centuries? I have lived off 24 ratpacks and you can make some good feeds with them if you use you head. They mightn't be mum's home cooking but they still were good when you was a hungry, tired, and wet teenager in the middle of a NZ South Island winter.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
...Overall it appears that the average Ukrainian wants to be close to Europe, join NATO, thinks very highly of President Zelenskiy, has a very strong dislike of Presidents, Putin and Lukashenko, the Russian military and people, definitely doesn't think that NATO and the PRC have done enough to help them, thinks that the US & EU have done possibly enough but there's plenty of room for improvement...
Assuming that we are heading towards a stalemate or at least very limited sucess for Russia, something will have to give on Ukraine's side.

The most obvious one is NATO membership, which is one of the root causes for this. Inasmuch as "sovereign nations have a right to decide what they want", practically, there are always external considerations. The status of Crimea and Donbass would be the other item for discussion but that would be dicey.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
something will have to give on Ukraine's side.
Yes but what? It's fighting to keep Russia out of its territory and at the same time trying to get NATO more involved. Neither are likely. The Russians might withdraw but only if certain conditions are met. Conditions that would be politically unacceptable for the Ukrainians after so much blood has been spilt.

he most obvious one is NATO membership,
Officially NATO will maintain that it's up to countries to make their own decisions but depending on how this turns out; NATO membership might remain elusive for the Ukraine. Perhaps eventual EU membership would have to suffice.

The status of Crimea and Donbass would be the other item for discussion but that would be dicey.
That is something the Ukraine might be willing to concede as part of a larger deal; if it gets its way on other issues.

One of the speaker's in this video mentions that giving up the Donbass might not be a bad thing for the Ukraine.

 

phreeky

Active Member
I have lived off 24 ratpacks and you can make some good feeds with them if you use you head. They mightn't be mum's home cooking but they still were good when you was a hungry, tired, and wet teenager in the middle of a NZ South Island winter.
I've also had my fair share of time with 24hr one-man ratpacks (Aussie ones in the late 90s), and often having to share them. At least it was my experience that camping out in warm weather waiting for nothing to happen you can get by with some quite extreme rationing, but pushing yourself hard both physically and mentally for a day in cold and miserable weather you'll burn through calories like crazy.

Some people can get by some a mix of muesli bars, cordial and chocolate for quite some time and yet others will lose the plot quickly without a warm meal at the end of a big days work - and you can bet that amongst all of those Russian troops there are plenty that fall into each category.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Are we allowed to post reddit links here? r/combatfootage is extremely pro Ukranian, but there are some great videos and shots there. Just watched a video of a damaged Su-25 landing baack home safely. It ate a manpad and took it like champ.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Total false equivalence to suggest equality between Western press and Russian press for many, many reasons. If you can't list at least half a dozen you ain't trying. No one needs to demonise Russia, they managing to do perfectly all by themselves.
Actually I provided a link that demonstrates that Ukraine too legislates (decree in this case) against some journalists. The last opposition press, no less. How would you like me to list half a dozen times they have legislated against the last free press? That is precisely the point...as previously stated it is about not allowing free press, and using legislation to do this. When you say Western, are you using western and Ukrainian interchangeably?

I know the (banned by decree) opposition were pro-russian (er...kind of obvious given the history of all this being discussed here, from before even Yanukovich), but how is that different from press being allowed to follow their own narrative? This is exactly what Russia is (rightly) taken to task for. Are we saying press in the west isnt providing propaganda channels? Are they legitimate targets for legislation banning them as a result, without it denting any free press claims? Press is free or it isnt. If you legislate against the press you dont like, you dont have a free press. Thats the case whether youre russian, ukrainian, english, or martian.

As for demonising, if they are doing it themselves and there is no need to do it, why do it? Isnt it then easy to agree simply lets not enage in it?
 

phreeky

Active Member
Regarding the "Z", this appears to be a Russian push for more than simply a tactical symbol:
I can't see any good links from that tweet to original sources sorry, but there are lots of concerning images there assuming that they're not doctored.

Some other references (a lot of the same images):

Actually I provided a link that demonstrates that Ukraine too legislates (decree in this case) against some journalists.
You seem to have ignored the response I provided with further information (post 1534). Were they actually free, or were they controlled by an external government?

Like it or not, LOTS of "western" media condemn what their governments are doing. They got absolutely taken to task regarding wars (sorry, "special operations") like Iraq and Afghanistan - they could call it a war, an invasion, make all sorts of crazy (or in fact correct sometimes as it turns out) claims and didn't get shut down. Some of them are bonkers and come up with weird conspiracies, and some tow a very left-wing or right-wing line consistently. That's why yes, you can find some terrible examples of journalism from them.

Here are some Russian opinions on it:

This is a very concerning step that Putin has taken. It has gone a step beyond a propaganda machine.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Regarding the "Z", this appears to be a Russian push for more than simply a tactical symbol:
I can't see any good links from that tweet to original sources sorry, but there are lots of concerning images there assuming that they're not doctored.

Some other references (a lot of the same images):



You seem to have ignored the response I provided with further information (post 1534). Were they actually free, or were they controlled by an external government?

Like it or not, LOTS of "western" media condemn what their governments are doing. They got absolutely taken to task regarding wars (sorry, "special operations") like Iraq and Afghanistan - they could call it a war, an invasion, make all sorts of crazy (or in fact correct sometimes as it turns out) claims and didn't get shut down. Some of them are bonkers and come up with weird conspiracies, and some tow a very left-wing or right-wing line consistently. That's why yes, you can find some terrible examples of journalism from them.

Here are some Russian opinions on it:

This is a very concerning step that Putin has taken. It has gone a step beyond a propaganda machine.
I didnt ignore it. Foreign funded news, or funded by other governments, is exactly what Russia's pretext was in fact. I said, in my post you quote, that they were pro-Russian. That is rather the crux of the issue.....

Im also concerned that we have a war between these parties and yet we are seriously implying we will take the word of one of the belligerents, even where contrarian voices have been silenced.
 
Like it or not, LOTS of "western" media condemn what their governments are doing. They got absolutely taken to task regarding wars (sorry, "special operations") like Iraq and Afghanistan - they could call it a war, an invasion, make all sorts of crazy (or in fact correct sometimes as it turns out) claims and didn't get shut down. Some of them are bonkers and come up with weird conspiracies, and some tow a very left-wing or right-wing line consistently. That's why yes, you can find some terrible examples of journalism from them.
Bringing the Serbs to heel, a massive bombing attack opens the door to peace - cover of Time magazine (March 24 1999)




Is this a form of condemnation? Or this?


 

the concerned

Active Member
One of the concerns I have about this conflict is the control of the weapons that the west is providing to Ukraine. We have seen Chechens and now possibly middle Eastern volunteers joining the Russian effort . I Don't like the idea of these people getting their hands on stuff like javelins and stingers
 

phreeky

Active Member
I said, in my post you quote, that they were pro-Russian. That is rather the crux of the issue.....
They weren't opinion pieces though, they were factually incorrect - many outright lies. That's not just "pro-Russian".

Is this a form of condemnation? Or this?
Could I request you read my post again? I quite clearly states you can find publications of all views, extreme in all ways. You cherry picked.
 

the concerned

Active Member
One of the concerns I have about this conflict is the control of the weapons that the west is providing to Ukraine. We have seen Chechens and now possibly middle Eastern volunteers joining the Russian effort . I Don't like the idea of these people getting their hands on stuff like javelins and stingers especially if they have ideas about taking these weapons and using them around the world.
 

phreeky

Active Member
One of the concerns I have about this conflict is the control of the weapons that the west is providing to Ukraine. We have seen Chechens and now possibly middle Eastern volunteers joining the Russian effort . I Don't like the idea of these people getting their hands on stuff like javelins and stingers
I also find this concerning. Anti-tank weapons are obviously quite a potent weapon, but even more concerning are the anti-aircraft weapons. The idea of that finding its way to somebody sitting at the end of a civilian runway and being easily hidden.

I really don't know what to make of it. I suspect there were quite vigorous discussions on the risks when they came to this decision.
 
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