The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Mar 12, 2022

Vivendi said:
Russia has now attacked 3 new cities: Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipro.

You're mistaken. Ivano-Frankovsk was hit pretty early on. There's a unit of MiG-29s based there that got destroyed. Dnepropetrovsk isn't west at all, it's dead center. I believe Lutsk was also hit at least once before. All in all Russia is continuing to target military infrastructure across Ukraine to degrade overall capabilities.

Big_Zucchini · Mar 12, 2022

Ananda said:
It seems it is going to be grinding war of attrition. Just like Russian did with Grozny. I suspect Russia then will try to get some local group supporters, which in the end will administrate the area. They're doing it in Chechya and in Georgia. Seems they're going to do it again in Ukraine.

This is just my personal opinion, when I saw Russian send old Soviet era equipment to the front, I don't see it like Western media talk of Russian already lost many equipment, thus resolt to using old ones.

There's more probable that they are preparing their kind War of Attrition, where they are keeping their main assets, and send those older Soviet era equipment to try exhausted Ukraine resources. It's a very costly strategy, but that's can be where Russia going to conduct their war of attrition work.

Sending in old equipment is not as straightforward as it seems. It is still no less than a strategic asset.

Many armed forces rely on mothballed equipment to act as their wartime reserves, which they can either send in as-is or upgrade and send in.
Since old equipment is less effective, obviously, the rate at which it's lost is much greater.

For Russia it's a double problem - those old pieces of equipment are not replaced by new ones every year. They are drawn out and upgraded. Good chunk of Russia's modern AFVs are actually upgraded old ones.

So it's questionable whether there is any more value to losing old equipment in masses than losing small quantities of new equipment.

Feanor · Mar 12, 2022

Big_Zucchini said:
Sending in old equipment is not as straightforward as it seems. It is still no less than a strategic asset.

Many armed forces rely on mothballed equipment to act as their wartime reserves, which they can either send in as-is or upgrade and send in.
Since old equipment is less effective, obviously, the rate at which it's lost is much greater.

For Russia it's a double problem - those old pieces of equipment are not replaced by new ones every year. They are drawn out and upgraded. Good chunk of Russia's modern AFVs are actually upgraded old ones.

So it's questionable whether there is any more value to losing old equipment in masses than losing small quantities of new equipment.

Yes and no. Russia purchases several hundred armored vehicles each year. Between Tigrs and Tayfuns, new-built BTR-82As (technically they're an upgraded BTR-80 design but the physical BTR-82A is new, unlike the upgraded BTR-82AM), BMP-3s (they've been purchasing 2-4 btlns a year) and BMD-4Ms (2 btlns a year for a while) they're doing quite a bit of shopping. It's just that Russian ground forces have ballooned since 2014, from ~40 brigades, to a much larger force. In my opinion that decision was a mistake, inertial thinking. Of course nobody asked me...

I would estimate ~400-500 new light-armor vehicles each year. And that's conservative. We're not counting things like armored ambulances (OKR Linza anyone?) or SP ATGM carriers (Khrizantema and Kornet-D1), or new armored support vehicles (BMR-3Ms have gotten inducted, BREM-1Ms are still purchased).

The flip side is... would there be any fewer BMP-3s lost then BMP-2s under similar conditions? I mean... the current BMP-3 variant does come with thermals, definitely has better optics, and there's some benefit to being able to throw 100mm HE FRAG. But neither will survive a direct RPG hit, nevermind an NLAW. There's a number of up-armored BMP-3s that can carry slat and ERA armor, but I've only seen them occasionally, and none in this conflict so far. The BTR-82A has a nearly identical protection level to the BTR-80 (anti-spall liner to reduce occupant casualties helps). There's the BTR-82AT which has extra armor panels, and slat-armor but again it's very rare and none have been sighted in this conflict. Otherwise the main advantage of the BTR-82A over the BTR-80 is the similar to the advantage the BMP-3 offers over the BMP-2; better sensors, more fire-power, better comms and navigation. Are any of these things conducive to reducing losses in the types of engagements they're facing? In other words... in the scenario above would a T-72A fare any worse then a T-90M? A BMP-3 mech column any better then a BMP-2?

GermanHerman · Mar 12, 2022

Intel Slava Z

The Russian Ministry of Defense has published footage of the landing of tactical assault units of the Airborne Forces and taking control of one of the airfields on the territory of Ukraine.

t.me

Some footage of the initial landing at Hostomel, I thought it might be interesting as we get very little footage from the conventional russian troops so far.

OPSSG · Mar 12, 2022

STURM said:
Infantry operated ATGWs are a battalion asset but RPGs and LAW are section issues; obviously mostly effective at close ranges or restricted terrain.

Yes, like Malaysian infantry, Singapore’s ATGM platoon (armed with Spike LRs), is an infantry battalion asset — they will reach out and destroy tanks from a few km away.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372865495779704834

The Spike SR is a company support anti-tank weapon (replacing the 84mm RR) and the Matador is a section level anti-armour weapon.

STURM · Mar 12, 2022

The Carl Gustav [despite its weight and 2 men crew] is still operated at Company level. It's valued because it tends to be more accurate than shoulder fired disposable types and can fire a variety of ammo including smoke [something also performed by the Milkors at section level and 60mm mortars; which also have AP [ball bearing] rounds.

Anyway apologies; that's me getting off topic; I'll stick to Russian/Ukrainian stuff.

STURM · Mar 12, 2022

danonz said:
informative vid of Nlaw ambush on Russian armored column

Thank you for the video. Some points/questions come to mind.

- The MBT LAW was fired only about 200 metres, more or less, away. Why did the Ukrainians pick an ambush position so close to the road? Even with MBT LAW's limited range they could,have positions themselves a bit further away. The open terrain certainly permitted a longer range engagement.

- Several of the crew were seen escaping. It's extraordinary that any one could have survived given the tank received a direct hit in the turret which penetrated.

- Why was the tank still moving after it had been abandoned? Was the driver dead and his foot still on the pedal? Unlikely he was killed given the round impacted the turret and the turret crew made it out.

- Will experience in the Ukraine lead to any changes with regards to Russian tank.development and even perhaps changes to Arnata?

- Are top attack missiles designed to specifically hit the turret area or do they also tend to hit the engine compartment?

- Given that almost every Russian tank is fitted with ERA and that it's ineffective [Im assuming it was Kontakt-5] against top attack missiles; there is an urgent need for a new generation ERA and for every tank to be fitted with a APS.

- I can't tell if the tanks were T-72s or
T-90s and I'm assuming the UAS was Ukrainian?

- Were the vehicles the lead elements or were they proceeded by a screening element which the ambush team allowed to past? Does Russian doctrine even call for armoured spearheads to always be screened by recce/scout units?

- Interesting to speculate as to what rounds were already loaded in the breech: KE rounds in expectation of meeting Ukrainian armour or HE rounds which would have been useful against an ambush team?

wild_Willie2 · Mar 12, 2022

Ukrainians used some inventive tactics in order to attack and allegedly sink the Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov a few days ago by means of an shore based ambush with a Smerch like multiple rocket launcher. They apparently used some small boats to lure the ship into visual range from shore and then hit it with an unguided missile volley. The ship then apparently caught fire, burned down and sank the following morning.

Patrol ship Vasily Bykov attack

Big_Zucchini · Mar 12, 2022

Feanor said:
Yes and no. Russia purchases several hundred armored vehicles each year. Between Tigrs and Tayfuns, new-built BTR-82As (technically they're an upgraded BTR-80 design but the physical BTR-82A is new, unlike the upgraded BTR-82AM), BMP-3s (they've been purchasing 2-4 btlns a year) and BMD-4Ms (2 btlns a year for a while) they're doing quite a bit of shopping. It's just that Russian ground forces have ballooned since 2014, from ~40 brigades, to a much larger force. In my opinion that decision was a mistake, inertial thinking. Of course nobody asked me...

I would estimate ~400-500 new light-armor vehicles each year. And that's conservative. We're not counting things like armored ambulances (OKR Linza anyone?) or SP ATGM carriers (Khrizantema and Kornet-D1), or new armored support vehicles (BMR-3Ms have gotten inducted, BREM-1Ms are still purchased).

The flip side is... would there be any fewer BMP-3s lost then BMP-2s under similar conditions? I mean... the current BMP-3 variant does come with thermals, definitely has better optics, and there's some benefit to being able to throw 100mm HE FRAG. But neither will survive a direct RPG hit, nevermind an NLAW. There's a number of up-armored BMP-3s that can carry slat and ERA armor, but I've only seen them occasionally, and none in this conflict so far. The BTR-82A has a nearly identical protection level to the BTR-80 (anti-spall liner to reduce occupant casualties helps). There's the BTR-82AT which has extra armor panels, and slat-armor but again it's very rare and none have been sighted in this conflict. Otherwise the main advantage of the BTR-82A over the BTR-80 is the similar to the advantage the BMP-3 offers over the BMP-2; better sensors, more fire-power, better comms and navigation. Are any of these things conducive to reducing losses in the types of engagements they're facing? In other words... in the scenario above would a T-72A fare any worse then a T-90M? A BMP-3 mech column any better then a BMP-2?

I think with some better equipment, their motivation and confidence would go up somewhat. Certainly doesn't help when troops entering think they're on equal grounds with someone, and that someone is well prepared in defensive posture.
But those new AFVs are hardly a step forward from the old ones. They are incremental upgrades. Take it one step forward in tech, e.g an American, German, or French unit, and I think they'd do much better as these better tools would give them more confidence in superiority and in their capabilities.

danonz · Mar 12, 2022

Iv noticed Russians wearing what appears to reflective tape along there arms, I'm assuming its to avoid friendly fire and the reflective part possibly so attack helicopters can Identify friend or foe ?

bmpd

Видео Министерства обороны России захвата вертолетным десантом аэродрома Гостомель под Киевом в первый день специальной операции 24 февраля

t.me

capturing the Gostomel airfield near Kiev by helicopter assault forces on the first day of the special operation

Feanor · Mar 12, 2022

Update.

A summary of missile launches by Russia against targets in Ukraine.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4497610.html

Around Kiev.

Russian UAV footage of Ukrainian forces moving supplies into a residential house, followed by a strike.

Оперативные сводки

❗️Укронацисты складируют боеприпасы в домах частного сектора пригорода Киева, но Veжливый беспилотник видит всё. Кара с небес не заставила себя долго ждать. @opersvodki

t.me

Fighting on the western edge of Kiev, near the Zhitomyr road.

Рыбарь

❗️ Австралийские журналисты показали последствия столкновений на западе Киева. Нам удалось определить место сьемки. Исходя из кадров с квадрокоптера, ВС РФ вплотную подошли к Житомирскому шоссе (Е40) в районе села Стоянка. #Киев #Россия #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Russian KUB loitering munition fell in Kiev. Presumably malfunctioning.

Милитарист

В Киеве упал российский ударный БЛА Zala «КУБ-БЛА»

t.me

Satellite imagery of combat near Kiev.

Милитарист

Новые снимки Махаr подтверждают факт боев в окрестностях Киева и подтягивание к столице новых подразделений Российской армии

t.me

Strikes against targets near Kiev seen from UAV, possibly Krasnopol' usage.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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