The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Russian airlines are facing an almost complete blockade from flying west over Europe after they were barred from the airspace of nearly 30 countries following the invasion of Ukraine.

On Sunday evening the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the whole bloc would close its airspace to Russian aircraft.

Hours earlier, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, Spain, Norway and Finland had joined the long list of states across the continent that have imposed national bans on Russian aircraft flying overhead.
Russian airlines to be banned from most European airspace | Air transport | The Guardian

Canada is closing it's airspace to Russian flights. Canada closes airspace to Russia ‘effective immediately’ | The Star

Delta suspends codesharing with Aeroflot Ukraine war: Delta suspends codesharing with Russia airline Aeroflot (usatoday.com)

Flying to and from Russia is definitely not easy these days.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
To me Russia putting his nuclear deterrent forces on full alert is pretty much an admission of failure. In fact I am still trying to work out exactly what the objectives are. Perhaps the Russians were expecting that the mere sight of tanks on the outskirts of Kyiv would be enough to quell any opposition.

History has showed us the defenders nearly always fight harder than attackers. The Russians should have learned this from their own experiences in WW2.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
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To me Russia putting his nuclear deterrent forces on full alert is pretty much an admission of failure. In fact I am still trying to work out exactly what the objectives are. Perhaps the Russians were expecting that the mere sight of tanks on the outskirts of Kyiv would be enough to quell any opposition.

History has showed us the defenders nearly always fight harder than attackers. The Russians should have learned this from their own experiences in WW2.
There's one other possibility. They know something we don't about the possibility of direct western involvement.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
There's one other possibility. They know something we don't about the possibility of direct western involvement.
I think NATO involvement would require something drastic happening, like Putin using WMDs in Ukraine. But then there won't be much left of Ukraine to save, so even if that happened I have a feeling we'd go for something more like a total trade embargo.
 

Redrighthand

New Member
To me Russia putting his nuclear deterrent forces on full alert is pretty much an admission of failure.
I don't think so. I junk it's more just a warning to the West not to get more involved than they currently are. I don't think he expected quite the international reaction that's happening, especially since everyone just shrugged about Crimea.
 

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think NATO involvement would require something drastic happening, like Putin using WMDs in Ukraine. But then there won't be much left of Ukraine to save, so even if that happened I have a feeling we'd go for something more like a total trade embargo.
Empty threat to give Russia time to negotiate their way out of this. Russia underestimated the worlds response to their little adventure, NATO nations now making pledges to increase their defense budgets along with non NATO nations wanting to possibly join, Ukraine is not worth giving NATO more power.
 

Feanor

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Update.

Kiev.

A BMP with troops rolling around, presumably Ukrainian.


Territorial defense fighters in Kiev.


As part of the continuing hunt for Russian infiltrators, an ambulance was stopped. The sources claims they killed the EMTs, but I don't see any blood and the two individuals on the ground look like they're arrested.


Civilian casualties pile up in the hunt for Russian infiltrators in Kiev.


Sporadic firing around Kiev.


A list of cars is being circulated in Kiev that belong to Russian infiltrators and should be destroyed on sight. It's not a short list...


A food processing plant (cooking oil) is burning in Kiev.


Assorted footage from the streets of Kiev.


Around Kiev.

Ukrainian troops firing an ATGM at a Russian vehicle north of Kiev. It's a Stugna-P.


Post-combat footage at Irpen', the suburb of Kiev just south-east of Bucha. The black-red flag is noteworthy.


A large explosion at Irpen'.


It appears Russia is moving in from the south-west on Irpen', having gone around the destroyed bridge Bucha-Irpen'.


A video where you can hear the firefight, in Bucha, likely old.


Russian troops in Borodyanka, a village north-west of Kiev. Some of them are artillery, perhaps the ones who carried out the strike at Ozerschina. I think I also see a Strela-10, if I'm not mistaken it's one of our first sightings (some from the VDV crossed into Ukraine from the north).


We have unconfirmed reports of Russian troops blocking Kiev from the west, as well as north-west.


There is info that the hangar where the An-225 lives was hit by Ukrainian shelling. It's located in Gostomel'. Some sources say that the plane wasn't there at the time.


Satellite imagery shows battle damage and forest fires around Gostomel'.


MLRS impacts in Ozerschina, small village western Kiev region. It's well away from Kiev itself. Possible Russian troops expanding their zone of control west of Kiev.


The North.

Ukrainian fighters were allegedly gathered in a movie theater in Chernigov, and got hit by a Russian airstrike.


Russian troops rolling into Ukraine through the Chernobyl exclusion zone.


Russian troops in Chernigov region.


Chechen National Guard near Pripyat.

 

Feanor

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Kharkov-Sumy.

A map of Russian troops in Kharkov, please take with a grain of salt, also it's old.


Continued fighting in Kharkov.


Russian troops moving around in Kharkov, footage is 10+ hours old.


a Ukrainian troop column headed north-east in Kharkov, footage is 10+ hours old.


Footage of the outskirts of Kharkov, you can see where the Grads landed.


The Kharkov tank factory got hit.


Ukrainian BTR-3 destroyed near Kharkov.


A Ukrainian BTR-4 burns near the destroyed Russian Tigr-M column.


Something burning on the western outskirts of Kharkov.


Ukrainian munition dump at Balakleya was hit by a Russian strike.


T-90A and 2S3 stuck and abandoned near Sumy.


An abandoned MT-LB of the 200th Motor-Rifles, near Lozovaya, Kharkov region.


Russian troops in Kupryansk. There were earlier reports that the town's administration is cooperating with Russian military authorities.


Elements of the 4th Tank Division apparnetly didn't go for Kharkov and Sumy, and are headed through Poltava region, one of their tanks is abandoned.


30 Ukrainian border guard soldiers surrendered in Bryansk region.


Footage from allegedly a Ukrainian store, where the clerk refuses to take money from Russian soldiers. It's being presented as the locals being happy to see Russian troops, but she doesn't sound too happy. Probably needs more context.


Russian forces moving around in Belgorod region.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Unconfirmed info that Russian troops are bypassing Zaporozhye from the east.


Yesterday's fight in Tokamak, the filming person says it's Russian troops, but we can't be sure.


The 37th mechanized btln's base has been captured in Zaporozhye.


Russian troops in Orekhov, Zaporozhye region.


Russian troops in Melitopol'.


Weapons being handed out to anyone who wants them in Zaporozhye.


Kherson-Nikolaev.

4 Russian Mi-28Ns flying around near Novaya Kahovka and firing.


A jet plane shot down over Kherson, not clear whose.


A destroyed Russian MT-LB near Novaya Kahovka, beingd looted by locals.


Abandoned BMP-1, Ukrainian, Kherson region, being looted by locals.


Russian troops continue to pour in across the Armyansk border checkpoint. It's possible Russia pivoted their operation to insert more forces through the south. We finally see T-90As, together with MT-LBs. This combination suggests we're looking at the 136th Motor-Rifles.


The 19 blue Su-25 dive-bomber was apparently not a UB, so the two dead pilots suggests there was a second aircraft.


Footage of what appear to be two Ukrainian Su-25 getting hit over Kherson region. This lines up with the above info, but now leaves us with a separate question. The other video of a single Su-25 getting... whose was it? Since it's not one of these two. There should be another crash site.


A Pantsyr-1 in Molodezhnoe, Kherson region.


Russian troops north-west of Novaya Kahovka at Velikaya Lepetiha.


Russian troops in Chernobaevka west of Kherson.


The port at Ochakov got hit.

 

Feanor

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LDNR Front.

Two destroyed T-64BVs, a Varta armored car, and a Ural truck, all Ukrainian, destroyed near Severo-Donetsk by allegedly Russian (as opposed to rebel) forces.


A Ukrainian position overrun near Volnovakha. Warning footage of corpses.


Battle damage in the streets of Volnovakha.


Rebel forces have taken Bogdanovka.


There are reports of rebel forces taking the Donetsk-Mariupol' road.


Ukrainian BRDM-2s trying to break out, and destroyed, near Volnovakha.


Abandoned positions of the 53rd Mech Bde, Novoignatievka.


Multiple NLAWs captured by DNR forces.


Rebel forces overran Ukrainian positions near Nikolaevka and are continuing the advance.


Rebel MLRS strikes near Nikolaevka.


Rebel forces enter the town of Bugas.


Captured Ukrainian and equipment.


Rebel forces enter Trehizbenka, crossing the Severskiy Donets river.


A destroyed BRDM SP ATGM variant, unclear whose.


Rebel forces inside Stanitsa Luganskaya.


A civilian car hit a land mine at Severo-Donetsk, two occupants died, one survived.


Civilians in Severo-Donetsk telling Ukrainian troops to get out, as they try to park armored vehicles next to civilian buildings. A reminder, Severo-Donetsk was originally in DNR hands and was retaken early in the '14 campaign by Ukrainian forces. It's likely civilians here are significantly less "patriotic".


Ukrainian Tochka fragments in Donetsk.


The public transit depot was hit in Gorlovka by presumably Ukrainian shelling.


The LNR has set up a hotline for relatives of Ukrainian prisoners to be able to reach out and confirm if their family member is a POW.


Another M141 captured by DNR forces.


Unconfirmed info that Ukraine laid down explosives in Donskoe at a chemical plant, near Volnovakha.


A civilian car got shot up in Artemovsk, allegedly by Ukrainian forces, possibly as part of the continuing hunt for Russian infiltrators.


Population in locations recently taken by the rebels, continue to hide in basements, in case of Ukrainian shellings.


People mobilized in Lugansk.


Mariupol'.

Gunfire can be heard in Mariupol'.


Sporadic fire and artillery exchanges in Mariupol'.


There are reports of Ukrainian helos over Mariupol'.


Ukrainian positions near a school were hit by a MLRS strike.


Explosions in Mariupol'.


DNR forces near Mariupol'.


Russian troops near Berdyansk, headed towards Mariupol'.


Russian infantry sweeping Berdyansk. They look a lot better then the ones in Kharkov, they're dispersed and appear to have some situational awareness. Also BTR-82As are way better then Tigrs.


Russian troops in Berdyansk, and they're SAMs.


Russian troops patrolling the streets of Berdyansk.


Russian troops passed Lunacharskoe and are pushing on Mariupol'.


Two BMP-3s abandoned somewhere around Mariupol'.


A Ukrainian civilian removes land mines from a bridge near Berdyansk.


Stores are being looted in Mariupol'. Remember, we have had reports of local police leaving.


The West.

A 35km long traffic jam on the Polish border.


The Polish-Ukrainian border.


An explosion in Zhitomyr, possibly a missile strike.


Misc.

The random Russian column shown yesterday under misc. is apparently from the 59th Tank Regiment, 144th Motor-Rifle division.


An M141 captured, unclear where.


A Ukrainian POW, location unknown.


An allegedly fake Russian POW.


Apparently 9 Ukrainian border guards that surrendered to Russian FSB. A reminder, the FSB runs the Russian border guard service, so Ukrainian border guards surrendering to their Russian counterparts would end up in FSB hands, not MoD.


Dmitriy Lubinets, and Ukrainian People's Deputy, uploaded a video on his social media calling Ukraine's soldiers to put down their weapons and come home.


A soldier allegedly from the 43th Ukrainian Bde. Presumably the artillery one. He has some unkind words for Zelenskiy.


Interview with an alleged Ukrainian soldier from Zmeiniy.


A couple of destroyed Ukrainian BTR-70s, location unknown.


The BBC is apparently passing off footage of a house hit by shelling in Donetsk by Ukraine as the results of Russian shelling of Kharkov.


A video of allegedly rebel forces advancing, except they have BMP-3 based Khrizantema ATGMs. So definitely not rebel forces. Which raises the question of location. These could be Russian troops working with the rebels, or the video might be mis-attributed and come from a different front alltogether.


A video of a stalled Russian air defense vehicle getting towed by a local tractor. It says Nikolaev, but


A Russian military correspondents car got hit by Grad fragments. Note that he survived and is apparently uninjured despite the damage to the car.


Chechen National Guard, somewhere in Ukraine. Likely the north, but not confirmed. It looks an awful lot like Pripyat area where they were spotted before.


A wrecked Buk-M2 missile, location unknown.

 

Toptob

Active Member
Empty threat to give Russia time to negotiate their way out of this. Russia underestimated the worlds response to their little adventure, NATO nations now making pledges to increase their defense budgets along with non NATO nations wanting to possibly join, Ukraine is not worth giving NATO more power.
I agree with this version. Outside parties are intervening more than was expected, and this is saying stay out of this. They don't need to make public statements of their strategic forces readiness, and dropping strategic weapons on Ukraine is a non option. The Ukrainians know this so it's not to threaten them towards the negotiation table.

One thing I think people are overestimating is the effectiveness of sanctions. The Russians have spent the time after 2014 making a turn towards China and mitigating the effect that sanctions will have in any way possible. I also many people, especially in the media underestimate the damage these sanctions will do against the ones imposing them.

EDIT:

Feanor posted just before I posted this, so I'll put my reaction here. I wonder what people think about those NLAW's getting captured... All these missiles and launchers are being sent to Ukraine, hope they don't send anything too advanced or classified/ secret.

And @Feanor I don't know how you do it! I wouldn't in a million years could have identified that BRDM with such specificity, it was a burned out hulk and half of it was blown away. Massive respect!
 
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denix56

Active Member
1. I think, that all the footages of captured soldiers (from any side) telling something makes not much sense here, as they can be fakes.
The captured / destroyed vehicles on the other hand make more sense for analysis of the situation.

2. I noticed, that all our discussion in the last few pages can be summarized to 1) whether the Russians underperform or this performance was expected / how the Ukrainians perform, 2) whether everything (inside Ukraine and outside) goes +- according to plan. And unfortunately neither of these questions can be answered until the very end of the conflict.
 

wittmanace

Active Member

Unconfirmed video of a large explosion in Cherkasy. Assuming it's not fake, does it look like a thermobaric bomb? Or perhaps a conventional strike on a weapons dump.
The notes I am seeing for it say its an Iskander strike in Cherkasy.

Big thanks for the epic roundups again, @Feanor


Some more of the videos are graphic, inclduing the Irpen footage. Also, the footage of the BRDMs hit actually shows the deceased personnel inside, though one might not notice thats what it is at first
 

MARKMILES77

Active Member
It would be difficult and would likely not help at all. They would be almost immediately destroyed. It's also quite a costly gift. As for Su-27s, there are barely any available to hand over. The aid that's being provided is pretty well tailored to Ukraine's needs.
Looks like they may be getting MIGs from the EU/NATO. We will have to wait and see!
 

Attachments

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
A friend sent me this interview of an American man who has recently arrived in Kiev from Kharkov. He says most of the Russian troops so far have been green and ill-equipped, "stiffened" with more professional troops, and uses the word "cannonfodder". Their equipment is old, including ancient tanks. He has no military experience and cannot give specifics, but shares his take on how locals around Kharkov see how the conflict is going. They seem to believe the Russians are holding back their shiny new equipment and more professional and disciplined troops to deploy as an occupation force or in case NATO gets more involved.

At the time he was speaking (10 hours ago), things seem fairly quiet in Kiev. He expects Kharkov to be fully in Russian hands within four days at the outside. He also mentions other towns, cities, movements, roads, airfields, refugees at border etc. He thinks the Russians are doing much better than appears on social media/our media.

It is mostly useful as a look at how locals around Kharkov view the situation:


I know nothing about this YouTube channel, never seen it before, so FWIW. The man did seem to be the real deal and actually in Kiev.

Big thank you to @Feanor for excellent meticulous updates!

EDIT: Oops. I just noticed this same video was posted by @webmaster on the "Russia and the West" thread (sanctions discussion). I'll go ahead and leave this up, as I've set it begin with the discussion of the military situation, convenient for those more interested in that aspect.
 
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

As I predicted the UN Security Council has voted for the General Assembly to have an emergency session regarding the invasion of Ukraine. Russia voted against but could not use its veto due to procedural rules. There were 11 votes in favour, with China, India and the UAE abstaining again.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Sad news from a Ukrainian source (if true), but the one and only An-225 seems to be destroyed. Of course this is now used for propaganda.

AFP claims that
|"EU countries will provide 'fighter jets' to Ukraine under Brussels funding: Borrell"|
Also that
|"EU to support delivery of 450 million euros' worth of weapons to Ukraine: Borrell"|
So even during this Covid-era where the economy is under pressure, after years of budget cuts on defence in most EU-countries, and after NLAWs are lost to pro-Russian rebels/Russian armed forces, the EU is still willing to spend the tax-money on these gifts.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Sad news from a Ukrainian source (if true), but the one and only An-225 seems to be destroyed. Of course this is now used for propaganda.

AFP claims that
|"EU countries will provide 'fighter jets' to Ukraine under Brussels funding: Borrell"|
Also that
|"EU to support delivery of 450 million euros' worth of weapons to Ukraine: Borrell"|
So even during this Covid-era where the economy is under pressure, after years of budget cuts on defence in most EU-countries, and after NLAWs are lost to pro-Russian rebels/Russian armed forces, the EU is still willing to spend the tax-money on these gifts.
Just posted a CNN link in the general aviation thread about the An-225 as I missed your post. Sad story indeed amongst all the other sad news happening from Ukraine.
 
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