The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Hannibal88]

Russian Forces have advanced passed Gostomel airbase and are currently in Bucha City Kiev Oblast which is just west of Kiev city.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497834737670500354

Reports coming out of a downed Ukrainian Su-25 in Kherson Oblast

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497832940499259392

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497836376372436993

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes and no questions are illegal . Got it.



so you’re saying Russian mechanized tactics aren’t to maneuver , advance as quickly as possible.

On day 3 Russia planned on being stopped cold 26 miles from the border in Kharkiv .

Right?



^^^^^^* there it is educational snobbery. It usually comes into play when a Uber educated person realizes a novice has a good observation.

I’ve repeatedly told you my position which you’ve ignored in order to criticize me .

not to mention you won’t answer my question on logistics because you know it’s possible.

you even tried to set it up where I can’t ask.

So I’ll play

Tell me what you think the current logistical status is of the Russian federation army and why.

I see that you are a newbie on here. FYI this is a professionally run international defence forum and we do have rules so it would pay for you to make yourself familiar with them otherwise you will run afoul of Moderators like myself, and I am one of the more grumpier ones on here so be warned. Being a Kiwi I also have a tendency to tell it as it is, rather more bluntly than my Aussie cousins, so don't push it.

You aren't a defence professional and as far as we are concerned you are a civilian newbie until you prove otherwise. If you have expertise in certain areas we will take that into consideration, but we may ask for proof and we do undertake checks of credentials that are provided. If credentials are found to be fraudulent we may, at our discretion, forward the details to the appropriate authorities. We do this in order to protect the integrity of the Forum.

There is no need for you attitude with @wittmanace because it's highly disrespectful, plain bad manners, and immature. You have made eight posts on here and think that you are an expert; but on here you aren't until proven otherwise, and like everyone else you have to earn the respect of other members by the quality of your posts, not the quantity. At present you are failing in that area. We have had some new posters come on here and in their first ten posts they have made a solid reputation amongst us because of the very high quality of their posts. Some of them don't post often but when they do even the Moderators and Defence Professionals take note because of the shear quality of the posts and the learnings that we can get from them. Then you get posters like me when I first turned up and the Moderators were tearing their hair out over me. Eventually I came good after I drove two to strong drink and one to swear off sex and coffee for the rest of his life.

So I am giving you a chance and a choice. Either you sort your posting behaviour out and follow the rules, or your time on here will be short indeed. The choice is up to you, so choose wisely. Consider this as a formal warning. Awarded 6 demerit points for 6 months.

 

[Feanor]

The downing of Two II-76 has to be fake. There would be a huge debris field. I also feel like the Russians never fully lost Gostomel, just a big battle. You would think the Ukrainians would've engaged them north of the airfield. But, I saved your post, cause I have the same questions. Still yet to be seen.

It's possible combat is continuing around the area where they fell and footage isn't getting out.

Whatever happened last night, I'm seeing big gains by the Russians now. Looks like the Ukrainians have decided to negotiate,.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497832781979828225

The conditions Russia set for negotiations last time was a full surrender, de-nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine. It's anyone's guess what de-nazification means, but it's guaranteed to mean the Ukrainian government has to shut down organizations like Azov, and S-14. I'm not sold Russia is willing to step back from these demands, and I'm not sure Ukraine is willing to accept this. There's also the question of verification. If I was Russian leadership, having committed to the fight, I would not trust Ukraine to implement peace accords before suffering a major strategic defeat. Even the it's questionable. The last two peace accords (Minsk 1 and 2) were basically ignored by Ukraine, and this was met with no pressure from the west. What's to say that a new peace accord won't go the same route?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

A thread on readiness and logistics in the Russian army units in Ukraine. It's pretty damning.

Note: The language indicates to me there is some emotion attached to it, so understand it as you wish. Personally not ready to take it as facts just yet because the footage from Ukraine is limited and evidence is otherwise non-existent in his thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497498201527521281

@Feanor You definitely aren't getting nearly enough credit for aggregating so much information for us!

 

[Steinmetz]

Looks like there was a lot of losses in Kharkiv and a battle is still ongoing. Destroyed Tigr-Ms. Looting inside the vehicles.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497844198174822400

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497843456848322563

 

[ngatimozart]

A thread on readiness and logistics in the Russian army units in Ukraine. It's pretty damning.

Note: The language indicates to me there is some emotion attached to it, so understand it as you wish. Personally not ready to take it as facts just yet because the footage from Ukraine is limited and evidence is otherwise non-existent in his thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497498201527521281

@Feanor You definitely aren't getting nearly enough credit for aggregating so much information for us!

Even if he's half right, it could make a big difference to the Ukrainian defenders because they would know where and how to hurt the Russians.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kiev.

There are unsubstantiated reports of a Russian air-assault operation at Borispol'.

Рыбарь

Украинский волонтер Мирослав Гай пишет о российском десанте в северной части Борисполя под Киевом. Не исключено, что за «десант» в очередной раз приняли разрывы зенитных снарядов или граждан, занимающихся поиском «российских ДРГ». #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

An explosion in Troeschina neighborhood. It's unclear what exactly is on fire.

Colonelcassad

Киев. На Троещине что-то взорвалось, идёт дым.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Кадры взрыва в Троещине на северо-востоке Киева. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

There are reports that police have abandoned the left shore, and Troeschina, suggesting that the explosion may have been them detonating a bridge.

Colonelcassad

Киевляне говорят, что городская милиция оставила левый берег и Троещину. // Крымский канал

t.me

Sporadic fighting and attempts to find Russian infiltrators continue in Kiev.

bmpd

Сообщают, что в Киеве украинская полиция расстреляла очередной автомобиль, заподозренный в принадлежности к "ДРГ". Эдак в Киеве все друг друга перестреляют еще до прихода Z-войск...

t.me

The hunt for Russian infiltrators continues.

Colonelcassad

В Киеве продолжается охота на ведьм. #Украина @rybar

t.me

Around Kiev.

Fighting in Bucha.

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vk.com

Russian helos over Bucha.

Colonelcassad

Российский Ми-24 работает в районе Бучи, Киевская область.

t.me

A column of Russian light armor is moving slowly in Bucha, gunfire can be heard in the distance. Bucha isn't quite Kiev itself, but it's basically a suburb of it.

Colonelcassad

Наша колонна в Буче, Киевская область.

t.me

Рыбарь

Наша колонна в Буче, Киевская область.

t.me

The column is VDV. Allegedly fighting in Bucha has ended.

Colonelcassad

Колонна ВС РФ в Буче, Киевская область. @warjournaltg

t.me

Colonelcassad

Колонны российских войск входят в Бучу. До центра Киева отсюда меньше часа езды Российские военные продолжают продвижение в город Буча, в пригороде Киева. В данный момент стрелковые бои уже закончились, в населенный пункт входят колонны нашей бронетехники.

t.me

The bridge between Bucha and Irpen' has been blown up by retreating Ukrainian forces. It seems reasonable to guess that the fight in Bucha was a delaying action for this purpose. This will slow down the advance on Kiev, though in my opinion the forces there are simply not enough to take Kiev.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ взорвали мост между Бучей и Ирпенем.

t.me

A missile, allegedly Ukrainian, landed in Bucha striking a local institute.

Colonelcassad

Буча. Ракета попала в здание института. Прилёт со стороны Киева - пытаются задержать продвижение российских войск.

t.me

Russian MBTs are reportedly breaking out of Gostomel', direction is unclear, likely of course if Kiev but they could also be headed south to Vasil'kovo.

Colonelcassad

Гостомель. Местные жители сообщают о прорыве российской техники из Гостомеля.

t.me

Russian helos near Gostomel.

Colonelcassad

Гостомель.В небе работают российские вертушки. слышатся звуки боя. 27/02/2022

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Kharkov has been enveloped and the assault has begun.

ANNA NEWS

Харьков. Процесс демилитаризации в самом разгаре. Город окружен и переходит под контроль российских войск. Ждем поднятие флага России @anna_news @akimapache

t.me

Fighting around the area where 4 Tigr-Ms were destroyed.

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vk.com

Allegedly Azov btln fighting in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Члены нацбата «Азов» ведут бой с российскими военнослужащими на улице Саперной на северо-востоке Харькова. #Россия #Украины @rybar

t.me

A burning Russian Tigr-M in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Харьков. подбитый российский Тигр

t.me

Colonelcassad

Харьков. Блин.

t.me

Some Russian Tigrs in Kharkov were destroyed. Ukrainian police (it's labeled that way but they're probably National Guard) next to the Tigr column.

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vk.com

Russian equipment captured inside of them.

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vk.com

Destroyed Ukrainian armored car and BTR-4 in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Разбитая бронетехника ВСУ в районе Харькова

t.me

Russian troops sweeping Kharkov. This isn't recoinnaissance or a drive-through. They come under fire and return fire.

Colonelcassad

Начало первых боёв на территории Харькова. Техника ВС РФ под обстрелом.

t.me

More Russian infantry sweeping Kharkov. I have to say, they don't look very good. The infantry is bunched up double file behind a light armor Tigr... they should be spread out more, and away from the center of the street. They also don't appear to be checking their sides very well.

Рыбарь

Пехота в Харькове. Удачи, мужики.

t.me

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vk.com

Russian troops, maybe SpN, in Kharkov. The vehicle looks like a Kamaz Tayfun MRAP.

Colonelcassad

Харьков. российский спн 27/02/2022 уже в городе

t.me

More Russian troops in Kharkov, these are at least properly dispersed and looking around.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian vehicles in Kharkov. Something strange about all of this. I can imagine a group of Tigr-M carrying some infantry being a rapid recon element, but in some of these columns we see Kamaz trucks following the Tigrs, moving rapidly through Kharkov. If you look carefully it seems like they're carrying an armored box under the tent (Russia has used tenting to hide armored troop compartments before). There's no weapons on these trucks, they're just armored troop transports. What are they doing moving rapidly through the city center? Are they moving on an objective? In one of the videos gunfire breaks out as soon as the vehicles pass the person filming, but not in the direction that they were moving towards. Were they rushing to reinforce a friendly element that got hit (perhaps that column of 4 Tigr-Ms that got destroyed)? There's a story here about what happened but it's hard to piece together.

Colonelcassad

Харьков. 7 утра. наши в пригородах.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Харьков, Алексеевка

t.me

Colonelcassad

И еще Харьков

t.me

Colonelcassad

Харьков сегодня утром. @sashakots

t.me

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Battle damage in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Местный житель из Харькова записал, что происходит по адресу ул. Науки 24. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

Ukrainian forces setting up defensive positions in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Позиция подразделений территориальной обороны на северо-востоке Харькова по адресу ул. Натальи Ужвий, 80. Танк на Дружбы Народов 60. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

There are reports of MLRS firing on Kharkov out of Lyubotino, a western suburb.

Colonelcassad

По центру Харькова работают украинские РСЗО из Люботина. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian troops surrendering in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

⚡️ Военнослужащие ВСУ в Харькове сложили оружие и сдаются в плен российским вооружённым силам, зачищающим город.

t.me

More footage out of Kharkov, allegedly taken after the fight above.

Colonelcassad

Новое видео из Харькова. Операция по освобождению города продолжается. @sashakots

t.me

Kharkov region, locals and Ukrainian police interacting with Russian tankers. The locals are less the thrilled, the column is halted, unclear why.

Colonelcassad

Харьковская область. наши танки и местные жители. украинская полиция не вмешивается. видимо мирно решают вопрос.

t.me

A Russian column on the Kiev-Sumy road. It notably includes a TOS-1A.

Colonelcassad

Авторский канал Бориса Рожина - эксперта Центра военно-политической журналистики. Никнейм - Colonelcassad. Мой блог: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ Голосовать за канал: t.me/boost/boris_rozhin Разбаны: https://t.me/razban_colonelcassad_bot

t.me

The mayor of Kupyansk says that he's in contact with Russian military authorities and they've taken the town, no Ukrainian presence. It appears there's a Russian maneuver element headed for Izyum. This is north-west of Slavyansk. If they take it, they will severely limit retreat paths for Ukrainian forces exiting the LDNR front.

Colonelcassad

❗️Мэр Купянска заявил, что "провел переговоры с военными Российской Федерации, зашедшими в город". "Сейчас они перемещаются по городу в сопровождении работников отдела полиции. Вооруженных Сил Украины на территории нашей общины нет", — говорится в сообщении городского совета 27 февраля...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Kherson-Nikolaev.

Russian troops have taken the Chernobaevka airfield and the Kherson airport. The city is now blockaded.

Colonelcassad

Аэродром Чернобаевка в Херсоне, который занят ВС РФ. Город блокирован.

t.me

There are reports of fighting on the north-west outskirts of Kherson. It's likely an assault of the city will follow.

Рыбарь

Жители Херсона сообщают о звуках боев на западной окраине города в районе Чернобаевки, Камышан и аэропорта. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

There are reports of fighting on the outskirts of Nikolaev.

Рыбарь

Звуки взрывов в окрестностях Николаева, а также села Новая Збурьевка Херсонской области. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

A Ukrainian 2S1 howitzer destroyed in Nikolaev.

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vk.com

Another 2S1 in Nikolaev either damaged or abandoned. It looks like a Ukrainian artillery unit may have gotten hit by surprise.

Colonelcassad

Николаев 27.02.22 после ночного боя.

t.me

A Russian BMP-3 abandoned outside Nikolaev.

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vk.com

The Su-25 shot down over Kherson is Ukrainian. This source is claiming two were downed, I'm unsure. There do appear to be two dead pilots, but it could have been an Su-25UB.

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vk.com

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Российские ПВО отработали на "отлично" в Херсонской области

t.me

Tanks in Kherson region, unclear whose.

Colonelcassad

Херсонская область

t.me

There are reports of Ukraine shelling the hydro-electric dam at Novaya Kahovka. All of it seems to land harmlessly in the water.

Colonelcassad

Как сообщают жители Новой Каховки украинскими ВСУиз тяжёлого вооружения постоянно обстреливается Каховская ГЭС, держа жителей в постоянном напряжении.

t.me

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vk.com

A BMP-2 near Nikolaev almost takes out a civilian vehicle. The video claims it's Ukrainian. It does lack the distinct white markings of Russian vehicles.

Colonelcassad

Реакции украинской БМП-2 на машину мирных жителей в Николаевской области Военнослужащие украинской армии на боевой машине пехоты БМП-2 чуть не раздавили машину мирных жителей в Николаевской области. @anna_news

t.me

Ukrainian vehicles in Odessa hiding inside buildings.

ANNA NEWS

Оперный театр В Одессе формирования Вооружённых сил Украины прячут военную технику в окрестностях легендарного Оперного театра, рассчитывая, что таким образом защитят её от действий российской авиации. @anna_news

t.me

Kalibr strikes landing in Odessa.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

The 23rd Public Order National Guard Bde was hit by strikes in Zaporozhye.

Dambiev

Ракетный удар нанесен по расположению 23-й отдельной бригады охраны общественного порядка (в/ч 3033) Национальной гвардии Украины.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Ukrainian troops in the yard of School No. 52 in Mariupol'.

Colonelcassad

Отважные украинские военные прячутся во дворе 52-й школы в Мариуполе.

t.me

Rebel forces from Sparta btln, DNR, posing with an abandoned Ukrainian armored car.

GREY ZONE

Судя по фото ОРБ Спарта ДНР вышла на оперативный простор !

t.me

GREY ZONE

Судя по фото ОРБ Спарта ДНР вышла на оперативный простор !

t.me

The rebels have taken Pischevik village.

Colonelcassad

Время Украины в Пищевике остановилось.

t.me

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vk.com

Rebel forces have arrived at the Maripol'-Volnovakha road.

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vk.com

Info is coming out that the initial rebel attack on Schastye failed miserably due to top-attack ATGMs used by the defenders. Footage of destroyed vehicles is lacking, so it's not clear at this time how accurate this claim is.

Применение ВСУ ПТРК Javelin на Донбассе повлияло на возможности ЛНР и ДНР к наступательным действиям

То, чего жители Донбасса, и многие жители юго-востока Украины, которые активно участвовали в Русской весне 2014 года, наконец произошло - российская армия начала военную спецоперацию по принуждению ВСУ к миру. Народной милиции ЛНР и ДНР сейчас отводится немаловажная роль: удерживать группировки

topwar.ru

Rebel forces, LNR. It's interesting to note that while Russian troops are mostly met with fear or hostility, rebel forces have show multiple interactions with locals who are happy to see them. It's important to note that they are moving through Lugansk and Donetsk regions, they have made no major inroads, and many of these areas were originally under rebel control in '14. Nonetheless the difference is striking.

Colonelcassad

На передовой в ЛНР. Дождь и морозит. Техника идет только вперед . Еды и воды хватает,вот только копоть лица покрывает-некогда мыться

t.me

The West.

Destroyed MiG-29s at Ivano-Frankovsk airfield.

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vk.com

Crowds at the Polish border.

Рыбарь

Ситуация на польской границе. В толпе есть как женщины и дети, так и мужчины призывного возраста. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

NATO/EU.

The EU is freezing Russian Central Bank activities and funds.

bmpd

Евросоюз вместе с США, Великобританией и Канадой объявил о заморозке активов Центробанка России. Глава Еврокомиссии Урсула фон дер Ляйен: Мы парализуем активы Центрального банка России. Это приведет к замораживанию его транзакций, это сделает невозможным для него ликвидацию своих активов. И...

t.me

Misc.

The Ukrainian dam at the North Crimean Canal was blown up, sending water south to Crimea.

bmpd

На Северо-Крымском канале взорвали дамбу. Сооружение несколько лет мешало воде из Днепра попасть к жителям Крыма. Военные инженеры Черноморского флота точечно подорвали дамбу, не причинив вреда самому каналу.

t.me

Russian T-72B mod.89, MT-LBs, trucks, and towed howitzers inside Ukraine, location unknown.

Colonelcassad

Минобороны показало кадры передвижения российской военной техники в ходе спецоперации на Украине. С начала наступления глубина продвижения на территорию Украины составила 52 км. ВС России за последние сутки блокировали Херсон и Бердянск. @rt_russian

t.me

 

[GermanHerman]

Even if he's half right, it could make a big difference to the Ukrainian defenders because they would know where and how to hurt the Russians.

If it would be even half true we would see insane amounts of russian casulties.

Just go back to 2014/15 and see how many photo evidence of casulties there were, we havent seen anything close to that at this point and given the effort ukraine is putting into the Propaganda war there is no reason to hold back.

So I highly doubt that there has been BTG splinter groups destroyed en masse by the UA although russia surely has suffered losses.

In general I'm somewhat perplexed by the sentiment of a lot of people that russia should have made more progress in just a few days. As soon as day two of operation people were talking about russia beeing unable to secure major cities in mere hours as if that's Something other armies casualy achived.

The same goes for the reporting on rear Units getting hit and russia beeing accused of poor planing. I vividly rememver US engineering units ambushed in 03 because they also bypassed Iraqi unites in the rush to Baghdad. No one Back then was accusing the US of beeing horrible prepared for the Invasion neither did anyone say they were failing operational objectives when they didnt capture Bagdad in one day.

Another frequently stated "fact" is that putin and the russian army expected ukriane to surrender immediatly or at least severly underestimated their willingness to put up a defence. Yet there is zero proof of this, it would be ludacrise to plan for such a major war with the attitude that there is no need for contengencie plans. In any scenario russia would plan for the worst case of strong ukrainien resistance, they entered this war by choice on their own terms...

I'm somewhat sceptical of any analyzis that is based on "Putin is dumb and russian Military planers are incompetent."

 

[Steinmetz]

Russian vehicles in Kharkov. Something strange about all of this. I can imagine a group of Tigr-M carrying some infantry being a rapid recon element, but in some of these columns we see Kamaz trucks following the Tigrs, moving rapidly through Kharkov. If you look carefully it seems like they're carrying an armored box under the tent (Russia has used tenting to hide armored troop compartments before). There's no weapons on these trucks, they're just armored troop transports. What are they doing moving rapidly through the city center? Are they moving on an objective? In one of the videos gunfire breaks out as soon as the vehicles pass the person filming, but not in the direction that they were moving towards. Were they rushing to reinforce a friendly element that got hit (perhaps that column of 4 Tigr-Ms that got destroyed)? There's a story here about what happened but it's hard to piece together.

So... Many.... Questions.. Where is the heavy armor or tanks? TIGR-M seems like a very easy target, tires blown and easy pickings. Are there any friendly soldiers occupying the surrounding buildings? I can't imagine just walking down the street like that without elements occupying the surrounding buildings. I would expect such light trucks to be emptied in the back of the line, and infantry on foot going house to house.

Putin is going to make an address soon, will be interested to see what he has to say.

 

[Feanor]

A thread on readiness and logistics in the Russian army units in Ukraine. It's pretty damning.

Note: The language indicates to me there is some emotion attached to it, so understand it as you wish. Personally not ready to take it as facts just yet because the footage from Ukraine is limited and evidence is otherwise non-existent in his thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497498201527521281

It strikes me as somewhat plausible. There's a few things in there I'm not sure are correct. For example, he's very right about the limited volume of Kalibr missiles from ships and their lengthy reload times. On the other hand there are plenty of Tu-160s and Tu-95s available to fire Kh-555s and Kh-101/102. There are also plenty of Iskander Bdes. All in all there's no reason Russia couldn't have fired off a day one volley of 300+ missiles, especially when you factor in their use of Bastions against shore targets in Syria, and in training. However what he says about the targets being large stationary ones, for missile strikes, is mostly true. I actually question the value of some of the strikes.

I also wonder about what says on BTGrs lacking support. If anything they're overloaded on support and lack in infantry. That's the conclusion of US analysis. Does he mean logistical support? Typical Russian BTGrs have a composite arty btln for one infantry or tank btln, also an air defense battery, recon elements, EW elements, etc. What we've seen of these formations in '14-'15 tells a story of overwhelming support, and quite bit a of care in committing troops to direct-fire engagements. Integration with air was problematic in the 5 day war, and nonexistent in '14-'15. Syria gave quite a bit of practice to air power, but probably not enough integration with ground forces, so that criticism is plausible enough.

He mentions that full units hadn't been called up before, and this is true. But brigades didn't send companies. This is blatantly false. Standard practice is for each brigade to send one btln, with supports, i.e. that very BTGr that he's mentioning above. Which brings me to the crux of this issue. If he's correct and they called up full units with conscripts, they should be able to field significantly more troops then they have. If they pulled BTGrs like they have in the past, and like all indications have been they did here, then it should still be... not handpicked, but contract soldiers trained to deploy as part of their BTGr.

The part about splinter formations, moving on parallel roads, and taking time to concentrate sounds true enough. It matches up well with what we've seen. He claims that BTGrs aren't suited to artillery support which is of course BS. They're better suite to artillery support then they are to frontline combat. The part however where, when they're split up, they can't call on arty in a timely manner has the ring of truth to it. Overall it does feel like many Russian units are acting with poor coordination. In my opinion he is wrong to discount the idea that Russian troops were holding back. I think they went in with this thought that many Ukrainian units would surrender and not fight, and could be sent back home after signing wavers where they agree not to resist. They were concerned with not causing extremely high casualties since this would have a ripple effect in terms of public image inside Ukraine. They also were clearly hopeful that locals would be reasonably friendly or at least neutral, which does not appear to be the case. And I think there is a fundamental planning failure here. Exercises are one thing, but a real operation, on this scale, and against a prepared opponent, is another altogether.

He's also right to point out that Russian SSO as he calls them (SOF in english) had a lot to do with the effectiveness of Russian airpower in Syria, and are likely not able to replicate this here. It remains to be seen how this actually plays out, since another thing practiced in Syria was Russian jets and helos doing free hunting missions over areas, picking their own targets. This doesn't require direction, and if done with enough aircraft (sortie rates in Syria got as high as 3 per aircraft per day at peak times) could have a crippling effect on the ability of Ukrainian forces to move.

@Feanor You definitely aren't getting nearly enough credit for aggregating so much information for us!

I'll take payment in internet likes and scotch.

 

[Feanor]

If it would be even half true we would see insane amounts of russian casulties.

Just go back to 2014/15 and see how many photo evidence of casulties there were, we havent seen anything close to that at this point and given the effort ukraine is putting into the Propaganda war there is no reason to hold back.

But we are seeing mass Russian casualties. Oryx blog has 195 lost Russian vehicles and equipment. Granted for ATGMs he counts single tubes inside a destroyed BMP, but aside from that it's still a very high number. And his info is out of date as of my last update post.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[Vivendi]

Not sure about that. There is definitely an egregore running around that seems to be present in a large chunk of the Ukrainian populace and at least some of their leadership that NATO or the EU will ride to their rescue; it seems to form some basis of their plan (otherwise the delay in mobilizing and not having some kind of D&D plan in place seems far less excusable.

Without getting too political, one thing about Trump, is he would have made very, very clear to UKR leadership that the West wouldn't shed blood for them, and they should plan accordingly. I'm not sure the current US administration would be so direct.

Actually Biden has been very clear that the US will not commit troops. He made that clear already before Christmas. All Options Are Not on the Table as Biden Moves Troops Closer to Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
He has repeated this message many times:

As he announced new sanctions on Russia on Thursday, Biden said, "Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict." He added, "Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO allies and reassure those allies in the east."
When he announced the first tranche of sanctions against Russia for beginning its invasion on Tuesday, Biden similarly took great care to make clear the US was not being aggressive toward Russia.
"Let me be clear: These are totally defensive moves on our part. We have no intention of fighting Russia," Biden said.
Earlier in February, Biden told NBC News he would not consider any scenario that included sending US troops to evacuate Americans in Ukraine.

Here's what Biden has said about sending US troops to Ukraine - CNNPolitics

I am not going to bother with finding similar statements from European leaders. Anybody with a basic understanding of European politics would realize that the probability of a European country volunteering to put their head on a nuclear armed Russian chopping block is approximately 0.00%, given that the US had already made it very clear they will not commit US troops to Ukraine.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Not sure about that. There is definitely an egregore running around that seems to be present in a large chunk of the Ukrainian populace and at least some of their leadership that NATO or the EU will ride to their rescue

There's only so many times that NATO countries can say they're not going to send troops in.

The point is, we've done nothing to make the Ukrainians think we're going to intervene, so what they do is their own business. Hence the fact that whilst their resistance is good for not just them but also us does not mean we're exploiting them.

No, Russia has air superiority. I've heard more and more sorties last night. I haven't heard of any reports of Ukrainian Aviation flying since they lost that Su-27 over Kiev.

When people are talking about air superiority I think they mean that parts of the Ukrainian air defence network may still be operational, i.e. Russia cannot just fly whatever they want, wherever they want, whenever they want.

 

[alexsa]

There's only so many times that NATO countries can say they're not going to send troops in.

The point is, we've done nothing to make the Ukrainians think we're going to intervene, so what they do is their own business. Hence the fact that whilst their resistance is good for not just them but also us does not mean we're exploiting them.

Just and observation ... it appears that Russia have been prevaricating (offering talks) while building up material and troops for what should have been a well structured attack. Ukraine have done well fighting alone if the 'truth is somewhere in the middle' assessment is applied. This build up took months (years for the stockpiling of hard currency a precious metals is truer). If a trip wire (NATO troops) and a balanced mobilisation of NATO forces had been inserted into the the situation --- would this have given Putin cause for a second thought. Risks would have been higher but the impression the west is not serious (sanctions being the only option mooted) may have been more effective. Lots of 'red lines' have been drawn by the West (the US significantly) since the Crimea and Syria with little real deterrence.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Apologies if someone has already posted this, but some non-military developments.

West to cut some Russian banks off from Swift

The EU, US and allies will block a number of Russian banks from the main global payment system, Swift.

www.bbc.co.uk

There will be a partial suspension of Russia from SWIFT. In addition, curbs are being placed on Central Bank of Russia, which will stop it using its currency to limit the effect of sanctions. This is reported as being to make it much harder to use Russia's foreign currency reserves to protect the banking system. The CBR has already had to issue a statement to try to calm fears and avoid a run on the banks.

This is going to put real pressure on the Russian economy. It also appears to be very sneaky, as reportedly it won't stop European countries taking payment from Russian companies for debts owed. So the worst of both worlds for Russia.

Ukraine invasion: EU shuts airspace to Russian planes

Russian planes will now be unable to land in, take off from or fly over any EU nation.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian planes now face a near total ban on flights to the West, and the EU is discussing a total ban.

Also, and I can't find an article about this right now, but the UN Security Council is to hold a vote today on whether to have an emergency General Assembly session to discuss the invasion. This is a procedural vote so Russia's veto is useless. 9 votes are required, and given 11 countries voted to condemn the invasion I think it's virtually certain the session will be organised.

It's not possible to predict with certainty what the debate will be like, but I doubt NATO states would have called for the meeting if they thought Russia would get a lot of support. Apart from a handful of states like Syria, Iran and Venezuela I'm not really envisaging a lot of support for Russia. Even non-binding censure from the UN would be embarrassing to Putin.

 

[Vivendi]

A Norwegian lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Armed Forces College believes Putin has made three misjudgements:

• He has underestimated the Ukrainian opposition.
• He has underestimated how united the rest of the West is around Ukraine and how much support they will provide.
• He has underestimated how unpopular this is going to be in Russia.

Oberstløytnant: – Det blir en lang og blodig kamp – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

I believe the Lt. colonel is correct. I actually believe this war is going to end quite soon, and it will not end well for Putin.

Some surprises:

• Germany made a U-turn and will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles, this is actually a very big deal, since it breaks with a promise Germany made after WW2 to never send weapons to a conflict zone.
• The speed with which the EU managed to agree on major sanctions against Russia
• An increasing number of EU countries are banning Russian airplanes from entering their air spaces (including the UK, Finland, Denmark, Austria, the Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) Ukraine invasion: Russian planes face near-total airspace ban to west
• The world of sports has taken a surprisingly clear stand, halting soccer matches, winter sports events, Formula 1, etc.
• Japan has implemented more wide-ranging sanction than what I expected. Japan is among top-10 trading partners of Russia.
• South Korea implemented sanctions (not the same level as Japan, but still...)

I think Russia is going to end this invasion sooner than what many suspect. Not mainly because of Ukrainian resistance, but a combination of different factors, the main ones related to internal resistance within Russia, and people in high places doing their own cost-benefit analysis of the situation.

If Putin does not stop the invasion and start negotiations, I think he will be replaced. It's already clear that Russia simply cannot "win" the war in Ukraine. They will be able to win battles but they cannot win the war. The Ukrainian will to fight is simply too strong. And the Western will to support with weapons and other supplies is also too strong. The Russian economy is too small. Even if they push forward with a full occupation, Russia will have to live with a well equipped, well funded, highly motived guerilla that will never give up. The sooner Russia accepts this and pulls troops back, the better for everyone, including Russia.

 

[Ananda]

going to put real pressure on the Russian economy. It also appears to be very sneaky, as reportedly it won't stop European countries taking payment from Russian companies for debts owed. So the worst of both worlds for Russia.

I already put this on other thread, including market assessment on whose going to get real benefits on this. It won't be Russia, but also not West and US.

It's already clear that Russia simply cannot "win" the war in Ukraine. They will be able to win battles but they cannot win the war. The Ukrainian will to fight is simply too strong. And the Western will to support with weapons and other supplies is also too strong. The Russian economy is too small. Even if they push forward with a full occupation, Russia will have to live with a well equipped, well funded, highly motived guerilla that will never give up. The sooner Russia accepts this and pulls troops back, the better for everyone, including Russia.

This's too early in the War, don't underestimate and also don't overestimated anyone yet. Russia clearly not in the business of occupied whole Ukraine. It's clear on how they're doing operation, they want to carve Ukraine. On that aim, they're still in schedule.

 

[the concerned]

Surely at some point Russia is going to have to try and prevent further military supplies coming across the Polish border but how far are they willing to push this.

 

[Vivendi]

This's too early in the War, don't underestimate and also don't overestimated anyone yet. Russia clearly not in the business of occupied whole Ukraine. It's clear on how they're doing operation, they want to carve Ukraine. On that aim, they're still in schedule.

I admit the timelines are difficult to predict, however, just as one could have predicted 20 years ago that US/NATO could not win the war in Afghanistan, I would make the case for a similar prediction about Ukraine. And Russia is much, much weaker than US/NATO, and Ukraine receives much more support than Taliban ever did. Add to this, the strong internal resistance in Russia against the Ukranian war, and it does not look very good for Putin. Just wait and see.

Also you are wrong about "carving Ukraine". They want to take Kiev to insert a pro-Russian goverment, there are attacks all over, and they have also said they are going to "de-militarize Ukraine". Not just the Eastern parts.