The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

denix56

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And a small joke from Russian commander to stay not too depressed because of the videos from Vasylkiv:


He claims that Ukrainian nationalistic batallions use Bandera-cars (the new name for technicals).
 
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denix56

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So it seems an eco-catastrophe is going to take place as the tank farm is burning after ballistic missile strike.
 

Feanor

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Actually I checked comments and the people say that this claim that the photo is fake is fake itself.

I have also checked the channel - it seems quite pro-Russian. There is nearly no footage at all of Russian tanks/BTRs / groups destroyed while there are lots videos of it even here, and mostly the videos of the Ukrainian force destroyed are published there.
Also the channel makes claims about Azov and some other groups, calling them Nazis.

The English language of the channel doesnt make it not a Russian propaganda :/
Azov are neo-nazis. This is not a claim, this is a basic fact. They were formed as a volunteer formation out of a neo-nazi gang and they continue to use symbols and ideology associated with white supremacist movements and neo-nazi groups. They've been thoroughly documented as such by even such anti-Russian sources as bellingcat. Can't speak to the channel in question, but Azov was even blocked from receiving US aid for being affiliated with white supremacists, by Congress.

 

denix56

Active Member
Azov are neo-nazis. This is not a claim, this is a basic fact. They were formed as a volunteer formation out of a neo-nazi gang and they continue to use symbols and ideology associated with white supremacist movements and neo-nazi groups. They've been thoroughly documented as such by even such anti-Russian sources as bellingcat. Can't speak to the channel in question, but Azov was even blocked from receiving US aid for being affiliated with white supremacists, by Congress.

Probably I said it out of context - the message left on that channel was posted with the video where the guy from Azov says that they will fight and kill Russians and will not surrender (you can here such kind of claims from all the regular forces who defend their country, nothing special). But the message stressed that this is the Nazi group, and obviously noone who does not speak Russian will get what he says.
I will not deny that they have such kind of relations, but it was irrelevant to this kind of post + the very biased reprsentation of the videos on the channel that claims to be objective.
 

OPSSG

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Part 3 of 3: Prep work to slow an advance & for urban war
9. Pretty clear that on day 3, the Russian battalion task groups and helicopters are taking significant losses and Russian logistical support has under performed. Looks like part of what I said came true — the Ukrainian Army has attacked not only the logistics tail, they are fighting and channelling sub-units of Russian battalion task groups into kill zones.

10. The magic trick the Ukrainian Army needs, is to keep inflicting significant losses on the Russians at day 13, day 23, day 33, day 43 and day 53. One day of success is not enough to turn the tide of war, as the Russians will now push forward their reserves in the coming days. Thus far, the Ukrainians are masters in the use of strategic communications to provide information about the Russian invasion. They have also provided inspiring stories, such as the heroic sapper, that provides the iron in the spine of soldiers & civilians. We just have to be objective and see how each side performs but I am supporting the underdog in this war.

11. If you asked me 2 days ago, I would not dare to harbour hope that the Ukrainian Army will be able to keep fighting at day 30. We need to watch for the introduction of second echelon forces, heavier artillery, and more air attacks, in support of the Russian effort to advance.

12. Their performance on day 3 has given me hope that at day 43, they will still be fighting. The worse day for the Ukrainian Army is yet to come. The Russians will attempt multiple encirclement efforts in the coming days — breakout attempts at that time will result in large losses.
 
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Steinmetz

Active Member
A comprehensive write up from Igor Strelkov whom has been critical of Putin. Seems he has a lot of critique about how the offensive is going as well.

Короткие итоги дня ( вышел из строя ноутбук,.. | Стрелков Игорь Иванович | VK

Rough Translation:

Short summary of the day (the laptop is out of order, you can’t write much from the gadget).

Northern ('Kyiv') Front - no significant changes. A regrouping is underway, rear forces and reserves are being brought up, battles are being fought for individual local points.

Central Front (Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkov regions) - the troops are forced to stop at the achieved lines due to supply problems and the presence of large enemy resistance centers in the rear. Moving forward (very moderately) only the left (southern) flank, which is advancing in the north of the Lugansk region. According to reports, fighting has begun to clear Chernihiv and a second attempt to clear Sumy is being prepared. There is no information on Kharkov.

Donetsk front. The enemy is completing the withdrawal of its forces from the 'Starobelsky bag' with minimal impact of artillery and aviation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which should be considered a serious success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the undefeated withdrawn units will certainly be re-introduced into battle in the Dnepropetrovsk region, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a resistance center similar to Kiev .
Apparently, the same picture is observed in the Berdyansk-Mariupol region. In the latter, perhaps, a garrison of 'suicide bombers' will be left for the fettered forces of the DPR corps and Russian troops, but most Ukrainian units and formations are already hastily retreating to the north and will also probably soon appear in the Dnepropetrovsk region (if the aircraft of the RF Armed Forces cannot actively prevent it). On the central sector of the front - from Dokuchaevsk to Debaltsevo - the enemy is still firmly holding his fortified positions, actively shooting the accumulated ammunition (since they will have to be abandoned otherwise when retreating). It goes to both the advanced positions of the 'corps' and the civilian population.

The greatest successes of the third day of the offensive fall on the Southern ('Crimean') Front, which continues to expand on its left flank a bridgehead north of Kherson (the city itself has not been cleared and is still under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) - bypassing Nikolaev. Apparently, if they come out to Nikolaev today or tomorrow, they will not take him - so far there is no one and nothing to do.
On the right flank, the advance continues (already with battles now) to the north - to Zaporozhye and to the east - to the rear of the enemy's Mariupol grouping. Which, alas, for the most part has already avoided the encirclement, but is forced to hastily retreat (which is completely impossible to do without losses).

Analysis and forecasts for the 4th day of the war.
The extremely successfully launched and successfully continued offensive of the RF Armed Forces, due to a number of objective and subjective factors, began to slow down, which is very unlikely to be somehow related to Putin’s alleged instruction to “suspend for 12 hours”. I seriously doubt that this ever happened. If there was a suspension, it was due to the backlog of the rear and the need for a minimum rest of the personnel.

However, there were also consequences of major mistakes made in the initial planning of the operation. The main one is 'exceptional benevolence' towards the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the initial missile and aviation training. The units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not “appreciate” such courtesy in any way and in the absolutely overwhelming majority organized battle (although some did not immediately, letting the shock BTGs of the RF Armed Forces pass by, attacking the defenseless rear units).

As a result, by the end of the third day of the war, the operational successes of the RF Armed Forces had not yet (I emphasize - yet!) turned into a strategic success. The Injection Army suffered heavy losses, but continues to provide organized and sometimes successful resistance, forcing the RF Armed Forces to slow down the pace of advance almost everywhere except the southern front. But the latter, advancing, faces an acute objective problem - a lack of cash and reserve forces.
As a result, not a single large unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has yet been encircled. Moreover, the enemy has a good chance though. With considerable losses, but withdraw the main forces of the Donetsk group to the Dnieper, where they try to stabilize the front, trying to hold on to 2 key points - Kyiv and Dnepropetrovsk
 

Feanor

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Update.

Kiev

The Zhulyany airfield in Kiev has it's landing strip blocked by vehicles to make sure nobody can land there.


Sporadic firefights are continuing all around Kiev. I still don't see any firm signs of Russian troops involved. Allegedly 25 000 rifles were handed out all over Kiev.


Around Kiev

Vasil'kovo fuel storage was hit by a missile strike.


More footage of weapons captured at Gostomel'.


Assorted footage out of Gostomel'. The base is that of the 4th National Guard Bde.


The North

We have unconfirmed reports of 3 Bayraktar TB2s shot down near Chernigov. I'm inclined to be skeptical. Ukraine's Bayraktars weren't based anywhere near there, and 3 all in one small area? Initially the claim was one shot down.


A huge Russian column in Chernigov, likely second echelon troops. The badly outdated T-72AV is part of it. I didn't even know that they were in combat units (well except the ones recently retired from the 201st Military Base).


Russian troops moving through the Chernobyl exclusion zone, allegedly the second echelon.


Kharkov-Sumy

Massive shelling is taking place in and around Kharkov. It's likely a general assault on the city is planned.


There are explosions reported in Kharkov along the south-east and south-western periphery.


The munition dump at Bakaleya is burning, Kharkov region.


Sumy region, Ukrainian BRDM-2 abandoned by the roadside.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk

A Ukrainian troop column moving towards Zaporozhye at night.


Russian troops at Bol'shaya Beloozerka, Zaporozhye region.


70 kms from Berdyansk, village Zamostye, Russian troops heading towards Tokamak.


Two military storage facilities in Zaporozhye are on fire.


Two allegedly Ukrainian National Guard KIA in Tokomak.


Zaporozhye, more chasing of suspected Russian infiltrators.


And more suspected Russian infiltrators.


Kherson-Nikolaev

A Ukrainian troop column out of Odessa headed towards Kherson, but was destroyed in Nikolaev region.


Ukrainian artillery column shot up near Kherson, allegedly from the 55th Artillery Bde.


Combat footage out of Nikolaev, allegedly Russian troops are entering the city.


Russian tanks rolling by Golaya Pristan' (Naked Harbour) in Kherson regino.


Melitopol'-Berdyansk-Mariupol'

Reports of Russian troops at the old Berdyansk airport.


What appears to be a Ukrainian checkpoint looking for Russian infiltrators near Mariupol'.


The West

In L'vov we have crowds boarding trains to get out.


A firefight on the western side of Vinnitsa has been reported, possibly criminal activity or friendly fire, no nearby Russian troops reported.


LDNR Front

In Roven'kah, LNR territory, a fuel dump is on fire, possibly due to enemy action.


Ukrainian soldiers surrendering to the rebels at Starobeshevo.


The rebels claim they've taken Volnovakha and Staroignatievka. Confirmantion on Volnovakha is pending.


Allegedly, Donskoe village near Volnovakha has been taken by DNR forces. They are approaching the outskirts of Mariupol'.


EU/NATO

Turkish cargo planes are flying to Turkey, presumably with supplies for Ukraine. Russian sources claim this will be more UAVs for Ukraine.


Misc.

Ukrainian PsyOps leaks show them asking Ukrainian sailors to broadcast, on a radio channel reserved for emergency messages, the message "Russian warship fuck off". Not sure what this would accomplish, but it raises questions about the alleged audio from Zmeiniy. It would be interesting to see if the Ukrainian border guards from Zmeiniy can be identified by their families, in the aftermath.


Another allegedly Chechen National Guard column entering Ukraine.


A video with an alleged Ukrainian prisoner saying "what is there to fight for? for shitty treatment, for being abandoned? I want my wife to see me home again". Unclear how real this is.


Another map of the action, please take with a grain of salt.


Locals looting an abandoned/damaged Russian BTR-82A, location unclear.


Russian official sources are claiming 16 Ukrainian small boats attempted to attack Russian ships near Zmeiniy. Allegedly US UAVs were nearby, and may have coordinate the attack, but the attack failed.


Updated info on lostarmour and Oryx blog.

 

Feanor

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9. Pretty clear that on day 3, the Russian battalion task groups and helicopters are taking significant losses and Russian logistical support has under performed. Looks like part of what I said came true — the Ukrainian Army has attacked not only the logistics tail, they are fighting and channelling sub-units of Russian battalion task groups into kill zones.

10. The magic trick the Ukrainian Army needs, is to keep inflicting significant losses on the Russians at day 13, day 23, day 33, day 43 and day 53. One day of success is not enough to turn the tide of war, as the Russians will now push forward their reserves in the coming days. Thus far, the Ukrainians are masters in the use of strategic communications to provide information about the Russian invasion. They have also provided inspiring stories, such as the heroic sapper, that provides the iron in the spine of soldiers & civilians. We just have to be objective and see how each side performs but I am supporting the underdog in this war.

11. If you asked me 2 days ago, I would not dare to harbour hope that the Ukrainian Army will be able to keep fighting at day 30. We need to watch for the introduction of second echelon forces, heavier artillery, and more air attacks, in support of the Russian effort to advance.

12. Their performance on day 3 has given me hope that at day 43, they will still be fighting. The worse day for the Ukrainian Army a yet to come. The Russians will attempt multiple encirclement efforts in the coming days — breakout attempts at that time will result in large losses.
So far encirclement attempts of large Ukrainian formations haven't even been properly made, much less succeeded. It looks like Ukraine will have time to withdraw from the front line in the east. The biggest losses, I suspect, will come from Russian airpower hitting Ukrainian troop columns as they move, or Ukrainian positions where they are poorly set up or vulnerable to air strikes. The assault on Kharkov and Sumy will tell us much about what's to come. If Russia can clear those cities relatively quickly, it's possible that Kiev and others won't hold long either. But so far Kharkov isn't even fully encircled.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
9. Pretty clear that on day 3, the Russian battalion task groups and helicopters are taking significant losses and Russian logistical support has under performed. Looks like part of what I said came true — the Ukrainian Army has attacked not only the logistics tail, they are fighting and channelling sub-units of Russian battalion task groups into kill zones.

10. The magic trick the Ukrainian Army needs, is to keep inflicting significant losses on the Russians at day 13, day 23, day 33, day 43 and day 53. One day of success is not enough to turn the tide of war, as the Russians will now push forward their reserves in the coming days. Thus far, the Ukrainians are masters in the use of strategic communications to provide information about the Russian invasion. They have also provided inspiring stories, such as the heroic sapper, that provides the iron in the spine of soldiers & civilians. We just have to be objective and see how each side performs but I am supporting the underdog in this war.

11. If you asked me 2 days ago, I would not dare to harbour hope that the Ukrainian Army will be able to keep fighting at day 30. We need to watch for the introduction of second echelon forces, heavier artillery, and more air attacks, in support of the Russian effort to advance.

12. Their performance on day 3 has given me hope that at day 43, they will still be fighting. The worse day for the Ukrainian Army a yet to come. The Russians will attempt multiple encirclement efforts in the coming days — breakout attempts at that time will result in large losses.
Really what other options for the Ukrainian army and militia exist other than to fight or surrender?

With the Russian soldier the main concern would be to just survive the tour of duty and get back home. Which fighters are going to be the most motivated?

I can see the average Russian soldier just keeping their head down and avoiding getting shot. On the other side you will have guys like this Ukraine Marine Vitaly Skakun Becomes Symbol of Resistance After Blowing Up Bridge While on It to Stop Russians.

Also signs that the Russians perhaps didn't think things through with tanks and other equipment apparently running out of fuel.


Fortunately for the Russians the locals seem willing to share some of their own gasoline with them.


This isn't going to be a walk over for the Russians.
 
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MARKMILES77

Active Member
Western powers are providing Arms.
Mainly anti-Tank Weapons and shoulder fired SAMs.
What are the prospects for supplying more advanced weapon systems?
In particular I am thinking of MIG 29s and SU 27s.
They are the fighters operated by the Ukraine Air Force, so they are familiar with them and their Pilots and maintenance personnel would have
no trouble operating them.
I know Poland still has MIG 29s and I think the US has some. Moldova as well.
 

OPSSG

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For those interested in a narrative to understand the war, please read the above 24 post thread on Twitter and the link provided by ISW below.

There has been some online discussion about Russian logistical problems — this discussion is not simple. As Major General Mick Ryan said:
“The reality is that in any large-scale advance by land forces, logistics is ALWAYS an issue. We train our combat forces to be aggressive in the advance and to exploit opportunities where they find them. Sometimes this means they outrun the logistic support of even the best military organisations.”​
 
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Feanor

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Western powers are providing Arms.
Mainly anti-Tank Weapons and shoulder fired SAMs.
What are the prospects for supplying more advanced weapon systems?
In particular I am thinking of MIG 29s and SU 27s.
They are the fighters operated by the Ukraine Air Force, so they are familiar with them and their Pilots and maintenance personnel would have
no trouble operating them.
I know Poland still has MIG 29s and I think the US has some. Moldova as well.
It would be difficult and would likely not help at all. They would be almost immediately destroyed. It's also quite a costly gift. As for Su-27s, there are barely any available to hand over. The aid that's being provided is pretty well tailored to Ukraine's needs.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Fortunately for the Russians the locals seem willing to share some of their own gasoline with them.

That last video is from 2014. I've only seen one instance of molotov cocktails being used so far.


Eerily quiet on updates from both sides besides propaganda for the most part. Dawn is soon, we shall see what progress has been made.
Russian comms been active all night, especially at 5125.00 KhZ Filter 2.43 KhZ. The people in the chat whom can translate, it's essentially chatter between Russian parties who are patrolling behind enemy lines. Bear Net has gone active several times and EAM Skykings have been issued from the NATO side a few times.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/?frequency=8131&volume=0#
 

Bob53

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A shame the US hasn’t got a land based tomahawk capability just yet. This shows how important it could be in the event of AirPower being degraded. Imagine if the Ukrainians could lob a few dozen tomahawks into Russian supply or amno depots and Marshall yards 200-500 km inside Russia and Belarus.
 

Blackshoe

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We haven't made any false promises to Ukraine, nor did we poke them into doing something to cause the war. We've given full diplomatic support and military aid but quite clearly ruled out direct intervention.
Not sure about that. There is definitely an egregore running around that seems to be present in a large chunk of the Ukrainian populace and at least some of their leadership that NATO or the EU will ride to their rescue; it seems to form some basis of their plan (otherwise the delay in mobilizing and not having some kind of D&D plan in place seems far less excusable.

Without getting too political, one thing about Trump, is he would have made very, very clear to UKR leadership that the West wouldn't shed blood for them, and they should plan accordingly. I'm not sure the current US administration would be so direct.
 

Blackshoe

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A shame the US hasn’t got a land based tomahawk capability just yet. This shows how important it could be in the event of AirPower being degraded. Imagine if the Ukrainians could lob a few dozen tomahawks into Russian supply or amno depots and Marshall yards 200-500 km inside Russia and Belarus.
Don't need TLAMs to go that far; the Ukrainians have already hit at least one Russian airbase (Millerovo) in Russia proper on D+2, IIRC. Used SRBMs to make it happen.

I do kinda wonder if announcing to Russia that "Welp, we're going to restart a warhead for our new INF-bad missile we're designing."
 

Feanor

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A shame the US hasn’t got a land based tomahawk capability just yet. This shows how important it could be in the event of AirPower being degraded. Imagine if the Ukrainians could lob a few dozen tomahawks into Russian supply or amno depots and Marshall yards 200-500 km inside Russia and Belarus.
They would be some of the first targets for Russian day 1 strikes. In the case of Ukraine land-based missile capability is the only plausible kind, but the US/NATO there are plenty of sea-based ones. It might help to hand land-based options, but I don't think it's as significant as you seem to think.
 

Blackshoe

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A huge Russian column in Chernigov, likely second echelon troops. The badly outdated T-72AV is part of it. I didn't even know that they were in combat units (well except the ones recently retired from the 201st Military Base).
Initial speculation I saw was that these were guys from MD-E. That would make sense with the obsolence of the equipment.
 
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