Mysteries of the war so far.
I've found several things to be utterly baffling about the current conflict and would like to share my thoughts on the subject, taking a break from processing the sheer Niagara Falls volume of information.
Mystery the first. What happened at Gostomel'? It's clear Russia landed some sort of light infantry element there, likely either SpN or SOF (possibly SpN VDV from the 45th). Then Ukraine counterattacked. Reports said Ukraine's attack included artillery and armor. So... how come Ukrainian heavy mechanized formations couldn't dislodge what has been disclosed to be ~200 light infantry from unprepared positions? Was Russian airpower involved? There were reports of Mi-24s flying and even footage of one striking targets there. Were the Mi-24s doing this Russia or Ukrainian? I know the initial assault wave included Ka-52s, at least one of which went down (allegedly two went down, but we can't confirm for sure what the second helo was). Even with helo support, it should have been possible to push such a small force out. They were relieved by Russian ground forces, including a Chechen National Guard unit. That's a rather unlikely element to throw against Ukrainian armor. Did Ukraine not really have armor and artillery available, was the info wrong? It's all quite puzzling. Was there even heavy fighting, or just some half-hearted attempts by Ukrainian National Guard to dislodge a well trained Russian SOF element that ended poorly, and allowed them to hold the base, but the fighting prevented landing anything bigger there?
Mystery the second. What happened at Vasil'kovo? Allegedly it was the site of a second Russian landing, and according to Ukrainian and Western sources, two Il-76s were shot down there. Single Su-27s going down made enough wreckage to draw media attention. Here two heavy transport jets went down near a town. Where's the footage of the wreckage? Western sources are generally more reliable then Ukrainian ones, but are they independently confirming or simply repeating? And what about the landing? Did it take place at all? There were reports of fighting from there, but nothing concrete, and we have had subsequent missile strikes against an oil storage facility there. If there are Russian ground forces, why strike the facility with missiles? Was there even a landing?
Mystery the third. Where are Russian UAS/EW? Russia has proven to be adept at using both of those in the '14-'15 war, so much so that it led to a profound reaction from western military planners to begin considering how to counter it. Here we are 7 years later, Russia used UAS and EW in Syria, often with great effect. This is a major war against a peer opponent (well not really peer but as close as Russia has faced directly since WWII) and this tool, one that Russia touts, and used well in the past, is conspicuously absent. Orion-S UCAVs are in service with line units, anywhere from 20 to 50 of them. Even just 20 of them flying 1 sortie a day would have given us ~60 UCAV sorties by now, which should have yielded plenty of destroyed targets and highly creditable footage to release to the press. We have exactly one video of a BTR-4 getting hit and filmed from above that we might be able to attribute to a UAV filming if not striking. Russia has loitering munitions, and used them in combat as far back as 2019. Where are they? They should be invaluable in picking out Ukrainian armor and artillery hiding between buildings. This is their time to shine. And yet... nothing.
Mystery the fourth. Rebel forces advancing successfully against entrenched Ukrainian troops, with plenty of foritifications and land mines are gaining ground consistently, and we don't have buckets of destroyed rebel vehicles. Did Ukrainian troops simply abandon the front line? We have some reports of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering to the rebels, but not by the thousands or even the hundreds. Merely by tens or even smaller groups. The advance is not so fast that we can call it unresisted, and rebel forces are definitely taking losses. Why are the rebel forces performing so much better then expected, when line Russian Army units are underperforming? To be clear, I'm not claiming the rebel formations are outperforming Russian line units, they're just doing better then they should be.
