The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[wittmanace]

Ok. regarding "no one is suggesting it’s an isolated dash . Lol ", does this mean you believe the russian plan to be to make numerous armoured dashes? I didnt mean to suggest you were saying it was a singular armoured dash. Im pointing out that these arent actual things.

"Putin like everyone else believed it would be over by now."
I am certain Putin did not think it would take three or four days and be over. I dont know of anyone else who thinks so, either. Has anyone suggested it would have been over by now? or just that the rate of advance has been slower than they believe they would have expected?

"do you think the Russia’s strategy was to advance as quickly as possible and over run the country?

Yes or No ?"

Aside from the idea of a one word answer running contrary to the rules, spirit, and raison d'etre oft he forum, I do not think that was the russian paln and I do not think anybody here has suggested the russian plan was as simple as that either. Certainly nobody with any formal education, training, or experience of russian military theory or history would suggest the russian plan was as simple or one dimensional as that.

I think russia has a more complex plan, and it does involve further escalation, as well as several encirclements of Ukrainian forces in the field. I also think that when these events occur, they will expect mass casualties on the Ukrainian side, and/or mass surrenders. I dont think they expected them yet. I am also not convinced regarding the last part you ask, in terms of overrunning the country. I dont know that they seek to take all of Ukraine. In fact, if they do end up inflicting catastrophic loses on Ukraine, or a few other permutations, would they need to take all of Ukraine?

Id also ask, in that scenario, what do you think the russians are expecting? They overrun all of Ukraine, and then what? they would have bypassed cities etc...and alot of armed Ukrainian groups would be carrying out all sorts of mayhem. Since when do the Russian armed forces think a war is won because they reach the border?

 

[denix56]

Captured Russian major

 

[FD 3.14]

Ok. regarding "no one is suggesting it’s an isolated dash . Lol ", does this mean you believe the russian plan to be to make numerous armoured dashes? I didnt mean to suggest you were saying it was a singular armoured dash. Im pointing out that these arent actual things.

"Putin like everyone else believed it would be over by now."
I am certain Putin did not think it would take three or four days and be over. I dont know of anyone else who thinks so, either. Has anyone suggested it would have been over by now? or just that the rate of advance has been slower than they believe they would have expected?

"do you think the Russia’s strategy was to advance as quickly as possible and over run the country?

Yes or No ?"

Aside from the idea of a one word answer running contrary to the rules, spirit, and raison d'etre oft he forum, I do not think that was the russian paln and I do not think anybody here has suggested the russian plan was as simple as that either. Certainly nobody with any formal education, training, or experience of russian military theory or history would suggest the russian plan was as simple or one dimensional as that.

I think russia has a more complex plan, and it does involve further escalation, as well as several encirclements of Ukrainian forces in the field. I also think that when these events occur, they will expect mass casualties on the Ukrainian side, and/or mass surrenders. I dont think they expected them yet. I am also not convinced regarding the last part you ask, in terms of overrunning the country. I dont know that they seek to take all of Ukraine. In fact, if they do end up inflicting catastrophic loses on Ukraine, or a few other permutations, would they need to take all of Ukraine?

Id also ask, in that scenario, what do you think the russians are expecting? They overrun all of Ukraine, and then what? they would have bypassed cities etc...and alot of armed Ukrainian groups would be carrying out all sorts of mayhem. Since when do the Russian armed forces think a war is won because they reach the border?

what’s wrong with one word answers?

YES of course Putin wanted to roll over Ukrain defenses as quickly as possible .

if you can’t answer yes you’re either way over your head or disingenuous in your conversation.

The essence of every post I made is that I think Putin could be having supply problems. I base that opinion on what I’ve read since the Russian logistics issue first came up in Syria. And Russia’s limited progress .

Are you saying he isn’t?

 

[wittmanace]

what’s wrong with one word answers?

YES of course Putin wanted to roll over Ukrain defenses as quickly as possible .

if you can’t answer yes you’re either way over your head or disingenuous in your conversation.

The essence of every post I made is that I think Putin could be having supply problems. I base that opinion on what I’ve read since the Russian logistics issue first came up in Syria. And Russia’s limited progress .

Are you saying he isn’t?

One liners are against the rules of the forum, like I said.

Are you under the impression military strategy is as simple as you are pointing to?

As to whether or not I am in way over my head, I would suggest we can discuss professional and academic backgrounds regarding the russian military in private messaging as I dont think anyone else here is hugely interested in this, nor do I think the rough answers are going to be a surprise.


it does sound like you think the Russians had planned an armoured sprint across Ukraine, whilst being unable to supply fuel to units well within Eastern Ukraine.....is this really what you are saying?

 

[cdxbow]

I doubt that Ukrainian sources are in a position to provide reliable information. This might be just a propaganda tactic. However, it does seem that Russian plans haven't exactly gone as planned. They might have been expecting the Ukrainian Army to surrender within 24hr-48hrs. That hasn't happened. And from what it seems there have been losses on the Russian side, which may be unacceptable. I think Russians underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated themselves. Nevertheless, Russian victory is likely inevitable.

Yes, I agree it hasn't gone completely as the Russian wanted. it's a decapitation strike and I expect they wanted to roll the government within 24 hours or so, but they have thus far failed. I suspect they had to change arrangements a bit when the 'coup' part of the plan was discovered by Western intelligence well before the kick off. I must take the opportunity to salute the brave Mr Zelenskyy.
If the Ukraine can hang on for a couple of weeks and maintain a semblance of government with control over military forces (and making sure all the civvies read OPSSG posts about urban warfare!) then the problem for Russia becomes one of an expensive and bloody occupation. Not what Mr P wants.

 

[denix56]

Could it be now that West expects Kyiv to be captured soon and 2 governments situation? And the promised weapons will be used to defend the rest of Ukraine that is not going to be captured by Russians, create some kind of shield with lots of Western weapons.

 

[FD 3.14]

One liners are against the rules of the forum, like I said.

Are you under the impression military strategy is as simple as you are pointing to?

As to whether or not I am in way over my head, I would suggest we can discuss professional and academic backgrounds regarding the russian military in private messaging as I dont think anyone else here is hugely interested in this, nor do I think the rough answers are going to be a surprise.


it does sound like you think the Russians had planned an armoured sprint across Ukraine, whilst being unable to supply fuel to units well within Eastern Ukraine.....is this really what you are saying?

Yes and no questions are illegal . Got it.

Are you under the impression military strategy is as simple as you are pointing to?

so you’re saying Russian mechanized tactics aren’t to maneuver , advance as quickly as possible.

On day 3 Russia planned on being stopped cold 26 miles from the border in Kharkiv .

Right?

As to whether or not I am in way over my head, I would suggest we can discuss professional and academic backgrounds regarding the russian military in private messaging as I dont think anyone else here is hugely interested in this, nor do I think the rough answers are going to be a surprise.

^^^^^^* there it is educational snobbery. It usually comes into play when a Uber educated person realizes a novice has a good observation.

I’ve repeatedly told you my position which you’ve ignored in order to criticize me .

not to mention you won’t answer my question on logistics because you know it’s possible.

you even tried to set it up where I can’t ask.

So I’ll play

Tell me what you think the current logistical status is of the Russian federation army and why.

 

[wittmanace]

Yes and no questions are illegal . Got it.



so you’re saying Russian mechanized tactics aren’t to maneuver , advance as quickly as possible.

On day 3 Russia planned on being stopped cold 26 miles from the border in Kharkiv .

Right?



^^^^^^* there it is educational snobbery. It usually comes into play when a Uber educated person realizes a novice has a good observation.

I’ve repeatedly told you my position which you’ve ignored in order to criticize me .

not to mention you won’t answer my question on logistics because you know it’s possible.

you even tried to set it up where I can’t ask.

So I’ll play

Tell me what you think the current logistical status is of the Russian federation army and why.

At this stage I no longer believe you can be serious about this conversation.

For the record, I wasn't educated by Uber.

I didnt call you a novice, either. I actually didnt call you anything. I didnt say or think that you had a good observation. I didnt imply it either.

I think we can leave it there, as it clearly isnt going anywhere. Feel free to insert a russian tank running out of fuel joke.

 

[Hannibal88]

As of now it seems the complete encirclement of Kiev is nearly complete. It's 11pm in Ukraine and a night campaign is expected to become quite intense tonight as well. Thus far the most fortified positions of the Russian encirclement appear to be in the West (Gostomel, Kiev Oblast) and in the northern Kiev districts as well.

A few hours ago there was video of the Russian Forces (Chechnian unit) going through large stockpiles of weapons that were left by Ukrainian forces at the Gostomel airbase.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497681831356948480

There was an attempted Ukrainian Propaganda/PsyOp attempt at declaring one of the Chechnian commanders at Gostomel was dead, an hour or so later the Chechnian President released a video of him speaking with that commander on the phone who went on to explain that the air base has been completely secured for nearly 2 days now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497677376880263180

Russian Grad Missile Barrages are continuously being seen in Kharkov tonight and VDV Russian assault squads are now officially entering Kiev from the skies.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497687220957982720

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It's the logic of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. Except... if it won't change the outcome for Ukraine, merely lead to widespread destruction and misery, one might take issue with that approach. Bloody urban combat means large scale civilian casualties.

We haven't made any false promises to Ukraine, nor did we poke them into doing something to cause the war. We've given full diplomatic support and military aid but quite clearly ruled out direct intervention. If Ukraine wants to fight that is its choice. We should not dissuade them just because they have little chance of overall victory. Even a settlement that gave Russia a land corridor on the south coast would be better than agreeing to a Russian puppet controlling all of Ukraine, especially if it turned out to be someone like Ramzan Kadyrov.

As for civilian casualties, that was something we faced during World War II. The Blitz was the price paid for defying Hitler. Indeed, one reason the Russians were able to hold off the Germans was because they accepted huge civilian casualties in urban areas they fortified, like Stalingrad.

 

[Steinmetz]

Russian Grad Missile Barrages are continuously being seen in Kharkov tonight and VDV Russian assault squads are now officially entering Kiev from the skies.

That's still unconfirmed. The footage I seen claiming to be a paradrop looked like automatic AA fire. Though, it looks like Gostomel airport is again confirmed to be firmly under Russian control.

 

[FD 3.14]

At this stage I no longer believe you can be serious about this conversation.

For the record, I wasn't educated by Uber.

I didnt call you a novice, either. I actually didnt call you anything. I didnt say or think that you had a good observation. I didnt imply it either.

I think we can leave it there, as it clearly isnt going anywhere. Feel free to insert a russian tank running out of fuel joke.

Dude the entire time we’ve talked Whether you know it or not you’ve been trolling me with a ad hom fallacy.

Ad Hominem
(Attacking the person): This fallacy occurs when, instead of addressing someone's argument or position, you irrelevantly attack the person or some aspect of the person who is making the argument. The fallacious attack can also be direct to membership in a group or institution.

i’ve made my position clear about logistics.

But you won’t discuss the issue.

 

[Steinmetz]

@wittmanace, let him be. He is a troll, I'm sure he'll be dealt with soon. Let's all try to focus on updates of the conflict.

 

[FD 3.14]

At this stage I no longer believe you can be serious about this conversation.

For the record, I wasn't educated by Uber.

I didnt call you a novice, either. I actually didnt call you anything. I didnt say or think that you had a good observation. I didnt imply it either.

I think we can leave it there, as it clearly isnt going anywhere. Feel free to insert a russian tank running out of fuel joke.

Dude the entire time we’ve talked you’ve been trolling me with a ad hom fallacy.



i’ve made my position clear about logistics. But you won’t discuss the issue you would rather attack the source.

@wittmanace, let him be. He is a troll, I'm sure he'll be dealt with soon. Let's all try to focus on updates of the conflict.

you guys seriously don’t think logistics could become an issue for Russia?

 

[denix56]

A bit emotional, but I think a quite close to real state of things video. The captured Russian soldier calls his friend or father (I didnt get it). He tells that there are heavy losses on both sides and asks to call to his commander.
@Feanor what do you think on the truthfulness of this video?

 

[denix56]

That's still unconfirmed. The footage I seen claiming to be a paradrop looked like automatic AA fire. Though, it looks like Gostomel airport is again confirmed to be firmly under Russian control.

There was report from Ukrainian forces that on the photo published is just the antiair working. There is only one photo in awful quality, where you can see anything from just light to the alien ships coming.


There is a video of Charkiv under the artillery strike. It seems TOS-1A is working there

 

[Hannibal88]

Continuous GRAD MLRS barrages can be seen throughout Kharkov and have been ongoing sporadically for the last hour or so

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497707414833049600

Artillery Shelling in Kharkov

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497709949631221762

Ballistic Missile strike on oil depot in Vasylik Kiev Oblast

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497709487104397318

МИГ России

Уничтожена нефтебаза в Василькове, окрестности Киева. Скорее всего, в нее попала ракета. В 2015 она уже горела и взрывалась по причине халатности персонала.

t.me

 

[Steinmetz]

A bit emotional, but I think a quite close to real state of things video. The captured Russian soldier calls his friend or father (I didnt get it). He tells that there are heavy losses on both sides and asks to call to his commander.
@Feanor what do you think on the truthfulness of this video?

Video has been proven fake.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497329771541372928

A lot more action going on than previous nights. Kharkiv is getting pounded from all sides.

 

[denix56]

Video has been proven fake.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497329771541372928

A lot more action going on than previous nights. Kharkiv is getting pounded from all sides.

Actually I checked comments and the people say that this claim that the photo is fake is fake itself.

I have also checked the channel - it seems quite pro-Russian. There is nearly no footage at all of Russian tanks/BTRs / groups destroyed while there are lots videos of it even here, and mostly the videos of the Ukrainian force destroyed are published there.
Also the channel makes claims about Azov and some other groups, calling them Nazis.

The English language of the channel doesnt make it not a Russian propaganda :/

 

[Steinmetz]

Actually I checked comments and the people say that this claim that the photo is fake is fake itself.

I have also checked the channel - it seems quite pro-Russian. There is nearly no footage at all of Russian tanks/BTRs / groups destroyed while there is lots videos of it and mostly the videos of the Ukrainian force destroyed.
Also the channel makes claims about some Azov and some other groups, calling them Nazis.

You're right about the page, took a further look, will put an X on that.

We're seeing a lot more airstrikes tonight, looks to be surgical against various types of supply depots. We keep hearing about logistics for the Russians, we also need to take into account what the logistic situation will be looking like for the Ukrainians soon.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497721750473302018