The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

jeffb

Member
No one is going to fall for your claims of a Dutch authoritarian regime, you may not like the current elected government but that does not mean the Netherlands doesn't have a functioning democracy. You're delusional if you think you can draw parallels with Russia here...

And yes, a lot of western countries are woefully unprepared for a peer level conflict. Since the cold war ended they have been cashing in on the peace dividend with no realistic conceivable threat at home until now.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Situation seems to becoming more and more critical by the minute now. You can now hear gunfire from all directions in the city, including the city's center.

Maidan Square Live Stream.

Kiev Zoo battle

Troieshchyna district in northeastern Kyiv

Also seeing reports that advanced Russian elements have penetrated way farther than what has been reported. Which would make sense, the Russian soldiers haven't been livestreaming their operations live.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 4: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine

6. What is endgame for Putin? Regime change and then puppet government? I pity the Russian soldiers sent into Ukraine. There are positive signs that in the areas where Ukraine has decided to resist they are having at least some success in doing so.
(a) If the Ukrainian army can keep their fighting spirit, the invading Russian Forces could become bogged down in a war that goes on and on, for months. If Russia can't take Kyiv quickly or if Zelenskyy refuses and resistance continues across Ukraine, Russia's costs and problems multiply.​
(b) Russia needs to win in 8 to 16 weeks, Ukraine needs to have the will to keep fighting in Kyiv for 21 to 42 days to be seen as credible. There's no denying it will be bloody, and full of suffering if the fight last 16 weeks, but it just might be doable.​

7. Losing Kyiv after 21 to 42 days of fighting would hurt, but Russia does not have the troops to occupy and pacify the whole country or pacify the city it intended to occupy within the first two months. Ukraine is able to trade land as long as the Russian armed forces keep bleeding. As long Ukraine keeps fighting, this war is not over.
 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
1. Nobody elected our prime minister at the time to sign away our sovereignty and 10% of our economy in the treaty of Maastricht, and the "people" that elected him where neither asked (through referendum) nor informed about the repercussions. It was negotiated over and decided on by the "ruling elite" in backrooms, just like everything is decided in the EU.

2. The Netherlands has a functioning, "democratic" government in the sense that the country is ruled by bureaucrats (the deep state if you will) and we get to choose between different people who'll do as they're told.

3. And you can form political parties and say what you want as long as it doesn't go against the ruling elite, otherwise you'll find out very quickly that these supposed "freedoms" are limited, very much like the are in Russia. (We can discuss this somewhere else, but I have more than enough examples to illustrate this argument).

In short, I believe that you like many others fully buy into the Western propaganda many of us where raised on.

To bring this back on topic, I'm not saying Putin is the "good guy" or that fighting a war is a positive thing. But it irks me that there is an assumption that the West is any less vicious or warmongering than anybody else. I think that people are thoroughly propagandized, but I think that people who think that the West is better are equally misled. That is not to say that I'm against the "West" or that I don't think that we should be better or more peaceful.

I am a denizen of the West and as such my survival and prosperity is linked to its position in the world. Therefore I want my side to do everything to be in the best position it can be, because I know that life can be a whole lot worse. But I also know that the situation we're faced with at the moment, is something that my side has also had a hand in creating by making bad moves, being greedy and overestimating our own position.


In other news... This is the position a lot of Western militaries are in: German Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said:

"In my 41th year of peace-time service, I would not have thought that I would have to experience a war," Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said on LinkedIn on Thursday.

"And the Bundeswehr, the army which I have the honour to command, is standing there more or less empty-handed. The options we can offer the government in support of the alliance are extremely limited."


What is the readiness like around Europe? In this article the Dutch defense minister is quoted as saying: ,,Dat betekent dat verloven kunnen worden ingetrokken. Dit is heel impactvol.’’ . Meaning that there is a possibility that leave may be cancelled, which worries me because I assumed that leave would have been cancelled days ago. I know the Poles are mobilizing so shouldn't the whole of Europe be on high alert and getting ready to move out at a moments notice?

If there was ever a time to recall the troops to their barracks and get them ready for operations... wouldn't now be that time? Or is it all just theater and is this threat that Russia supposedly poses to Eastern Europe just theater to rile up the populace?
While Poland and Hungary (and, I presume) other countries bordering Ukraine have rightly beefed up troop presence at their borders, I don't see how Russia poses any imminent threat to Eastern European countries other than Ukraine. Countries bordering on other countries in conflict naturally need to worry about various spillover scenarios (refugees, retreating combat troops, combatants and spies sneaking in and out, stray ordnance, etc.) and prepare.

Yes, there is a lot of hype in the media about Putin "posing a danger" and even "Poland and the Baltics are next!" It appears to me Russia is quite busy enough in Ukraine and Putin attacking other countries is simply not a real concern. We live in the age of clickbait, and these stories get clicks. There are all sorts of hysterical headlines screaming things like "Russia prepared to use thermobaric weapons against Ukrainian civilians" and "Russian forces will try to kill Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his ministers".

[Edited for typo]
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
Post 2 of 2: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine

6. What is endgame for Putin? Regime change and then puppet government? I pity the Russian soldiers sent into Ukraine. There are positive signs that in the areas where Ukraine has decided to resist they are having at least some success in doing so.
(a) If the Ukrainian army can keep their fighting spirit, the invading Russian Forces could become bogged down in a war that goes on and on, for months. If Russia can't take Kyiv quickly or if Zelenskyy refuses and resistance continues across Ukraine, Russia's costs and problems multiply.​
(b) Russia needs to win in 8 to 16 weeks, Ukraine needs to have the will to keep fighting in Kyiv for 21 to 42 days to be seen as credible. There's no denying it will be bloody, and full of suffering if the fight last 16 weeks, but it just might be doable.​

7. Losing Kyiv after 21 to 42 days of fighting would hurt, but Russia does not have the troops to occupy and pacify the whole country or pacify the city it intended to occupy within the first two months. Ukraine is able to trade land as long as the Russian armed forces keep bleeding. As long Ukraine keeps fighting, this war is not over.
Nothing like fighting for your family and fellow countryman to motivate you. The Russians will not have that motivation. I wonder how the Russians are going to cope with a long drawn out military conflict which may end up with tens of thousands of them coming home in body bags and not a whole lot to show for it.

Ukrainian militia backed by weapons, food, medical supplies and military intelligence from the west could make life hell for the Russians in the coming months.
 
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Steinmetz

Active Member
While Poland and Hungary (and, I presume) other countries bordering Ukraine have rightly beefed up troop presence at their borders, I don't see how Russia poses any imminent threat to Eastern Eastern countries other than Ukraine. Countries bordering on other countries in conflict naturally need to worry about various spillover scenarios (refugees, retreating combat troops, combatants and spies sneaking in and out, stray ordnance, etc.) and prepare.

Yes, there is a lot of hype in the media about Putin "posing a danger" and even "Poland and the Baltics are next!" It appears to me Russia is quite busy enough in Ukraine and Putin attacking other countries is simply not a real concern. We live in the age of clickbait, and these stories get clicks. There are all sorts of hysterical headlines screaming things like "Russia prepared to use thermobaric weapons against Ukrainian civilians" and "Russian forces will try to kill Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his ministers".
Exactly right, we live in an age of rampant misinformation. It's a part of warfare now. It's important for all of us to not give into sensationalism. I took glimpses at some mainstream media broadcasting here in the states. They were showing videos that have proven to be false information throughout the day. The information was coming from Ukrainian authorities. I understand why the Ukrainians are propagating a lot, but it's important for us to not consume without verification. In this situation we should verify then trust, not trust but verify.
 

Arji

Active Member
The internet service in Kiev seems to suffering disruption. There might be less update about the fighting there in the future.

I seen similar footage from 2014.
Actually, after verifying it again, it does seems to be footage from 2014. I'll delete my previous post.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #630
Back to the Wars Can Be Strange Department, either all the Russians' cell phones weren't confiscated, or this British tabloid is running a very phoney (pun not originally intended) story, or there is a really weird PsyOps thing going on:

I don't see why this can't simply be true. Tinder is a popular service these days, and a large number of young soldiers undoubtedly use it.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I don't see why this can't simply be true. Tinder is a popular service these days, and a large number of young soldiers undoubtedly use it.
Oh, I think it's true (meaning those guys' cellphones were not properly confiscated if that is the policy). I explained in my #619 that I was joking about the PsyOps thing. I guess I have a weird sense of humor, or it does not come across well in writing, people can't tell I'm not being serious, etc.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
This Russian Movement that @denix56 put before, in my opinion bit confirm with info that I got from finance market people specialise in Russian and Near Russian market.

AF239B94-7E5C-4ED1-8B3D-07F6FAA6A5CA.jpeg

Russia not interested to occupy the whole Ukraine. They want to carve East, South and seems now part of North. They want to make barrier that they can control between them and (now) Belarus with Ukraine.

Seems they're on the way on reaching their objective. So if most Ukrainian fighters still want to fight, but mostly on in Western part, there's probable Russian will let them. However Russian will try to destroy as much as possible Ukrainian offensive capabilities, to launch significant counter attack.

After that Putin can go back to the table and demand more concession from what's left of Ukraine. Just like he did in Georgia.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The level of fighting will escalate in the next week. In the latest update, a Western official said: "we've seen about 60 of the battalion tactical groups committed... about half of the battalion tactical groups that are available." This new estimate is up from 1/3 that US officials estimated earlier.
 

Arji

Active Member
The level of fighting will escalate in the next week. In the latest update, a Western official said: "we've seen about 60 of the battalion tactical groups committed... about half of the battalion tactical groups that are available." This new estimate is up from 1/3 that US officials estimated earlier.
Is this the one currently fighting or including the reserves?
 

danonz

Member
not sure if this has been covered - Can any confirm if this is Russian or Ukrainian
Driver found alive after car flattened by Russian armored vehicle in Kyiv
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
This Russian Movement that @denix56 put before, in my opinion bit confirm with info that I got from finance market people specialise in Russian and Near Russian market.

View attachment 48953

Russia not interested to occupy the whole Ukraine. They want to carve East, South and seems now part of North. They want to make barrier that they can control between them and (now) Belarus with Ukraine.

Seems they're on the way on reaching their objective. So if most Ukrainian fighters still want to fight, but mostly on in Western part, there's probable Russian will let them. However Russian will try to destroy as much as possible Ukrainian offensive capabilities, to launch significant counter attack.

After that Putin can go back to the table and demand more concession from what's left of Ukraine. Just like he did in Georgia.
Are you saying you think these areas will be cute little statelets that will be recognized by Russia as independent, too?

Edit: I just realized this might sound snarky, but I do not mean it that way. It is an honest question.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #637
not sure if this has been covered - Can any confirm if this is Russian or Ukrainian
Driver found alive after car flattened by Russian armored vehicle in Kyiv
The Strela-10 is almost certainly Ukrainian. Russian troops haven't entered Kiev yet, and a Strela-10 rolling around by itself is strange. To be honest, I haven't seen any Russian Strela-10 this conflict yet. For air defense I've seen Pantsyrs, Tors, and Tunguskas. To top it off the video is somewhat old now, and I think it's the same Strela-10 as in my post above.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is this the one currently fighting or including the reserves?
These 60 BTGs have crossed the border into Ukraine to enter the fight. The others are reserves, prepositioned to enter the fight based on Russian deep battle doctrine.
 

danonz

Member
The Strela-10 is almost certainly Ukrainian. Russian troops haven't entered Kiev yet, and a Strela-10 rolling around by itself is strange. To be honest, I haven't seen any Russian Strela-10 this conflict yet. For air defense I've seen Pantsyrs, Tors, and Tunguskas. To top it off the video is somewhat old now, and I think it's the same Strela-10 as in my post above.
the quality of journalism over hear is appalling and they have a habit of make dodgy article's uncommentable
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
These 60 BTGs have crossed the border into Ukraine to enter the fight. The others are reserves, prepositioned to enter the fight based on Russian deep battle doctrine.
IMO, the opening attacks were restrained and perhaps to minimize casualties.

The question is when will the Russians turn up a notch; if and when they decide to take the gloves off, it would be bloody and they probably won't care about civilian casualties
 
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