The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Capt. Ironpants

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not sure if this has been covered - Can any confirm if this is Russian or Ukrainian
Driver found alive after car flattened by Russian armored vehicle in Kyiv
I leave it to others here to identify whether Russian or Ukrainian (although I would guess Ukrainian) but it does not appear to me the car was targeted. It looks to me like it moving too fast on pavement and went into a skid and accidentally ran over the car.

I am curious why the lady was not burned at all. There was this old fellow who was run over by a tank in former Yugoslavia (lying flat on the road) and he was burned red all over, his hair, eyebrows, etc, singed off. He stayed red and looked like he had been boiled in oil for weeks and weeks. The explanation my military officer friends gave me was the exhaust from the tank burned him. How was this lady totally unscathed after the thing sat on her all that time? I'm not saying it's fake. Perhaps those vehicles don't have hot exhaust or something. I leave it to the military experts here. I am quite puzzled.

Edited to add: This video has been all over the place today here in the States.
 

Feanor

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IMO, the opening attacks were restrained and perhaps to minimize casualties.

The question is when will the Russians turn up a notch; if and when they decide to take the gloves off, it would be bloody and they probably won't care about civilian casualties
This same claim was made by colonelcassad, claiming that Russia intentionally didn't hit Ukraine's army units as hard as they could expecting that they might be willing to surrender. Some of Russia's troops around Kharkov in early videos looked like traffic cops directing traffic and setting up checkpoints. It's entirely plausible that Russian planners expected less resistance and less willingness to fight. Then again, it's also not clear how much willingness there actually is. So far the fighting has been sporadic. Russian units around Sumy and Kharkov encountered hard resistance, but from the north and the south far less. And Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south seem to have gone badly.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
just realized this might sound snarky, but I do not mean it that way. It is an honest question.
Understand, as I've put in my previous information, the Russian specialise financial market people that I have talk before speculating on Putin carving Ukraine to build barrier.

It can be small states like in Georgia, or one new Republic of Eastern Ukraine. That's why I believe one of reasons the global financial market after bit jittery on first day of invasion, then stabilize next day. Aside despite all the talks of EU and US sweeping financial embargo, market still see this is will still be relative limited incursion (then worst case prediction before).

Seeing the movement of incursion so far, seems still in line with market prediction.
 
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OPSSG

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Post 3 of 4: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine

8. Russia assembled a 169,000-190,000 strong force just in case its best case scenario did not occur. This number includes the Rosgvardia/Ministry of Internal Affairs troops and Russian-backed LNR/DNR rebel forces.

The question is when will the Russians turn up a notch; if and when they decide to take the gloves off, it would be bloody and they probably won't care about civilian casualties
9. Half of the Russian ready forces in the BTGs hasn't even been committed into Ukraine — IMO, the Russians will escalate and it will get uglier if they fail to achieve their political goals, in the next week. This far, the Russian Army have exercised a degree of restraint in the use of force. But given that the initial light-weight invasion approach has not gone as well, this may change and we will see greater use of artillery.

Reports of two Il-76s downed near Kiev. One quotes Ukrainian intelligence services via The Kyiv Independent:
10. I think this is real. AP confirms via US DoD sources that not one but TWO Il-76s were shot down roughly 50 miles south of Kyiv during a major airborne assault operation.
 
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Toptob

Active Member
I saw this report on marineschepen.nl and it seems CNN and this website are also reporting that the Russian navy has performed amphibious assaults in the Sea of Azov to the West of Mariupol. They say that according to the Pentagon the Russians landed "thousands of troops". I can't find anything about this on this livemap and I don't remember seeing it here, so is this nonsense or have I missed something? Has it been debunked already?

I do remember seeing a report somewhere that they where loading troops onto transports, and I've been wondering what happened with those and where they would be landing. Personally I expected them to land somewhere West of Mariupol, so it makes sense to me. But if they landed in the afternoon I would've expected to see reports about it from sources beside the Pentagon. And I haven't seen anything about any fighting near the west of Mariupol. There's plenty about contacts in and around Melitopol but that's a bit far to the West to be an Amphibious pincer movement on Mariupol.

I have also seen a report about a failed amphibious assault near Odessa, but the map shows it just to the West of Ochakiv and it indicates a bunch of military installations near that place what looks to be some sort of naval facility. And to the West (some 20 miles) of the indicated landing zone there are some more military installations. In fact, all along that stretch of coastline I can see on google maps what look to be dispersal sites for something like shore launched ASM launchers or air defense.

It doesn't look like a very inviting place for an amphibious landing, and it's too far away to support the assault on Kherson and I don't get why they would assault Odessa. None of their other assaults are moving in that direction so the assault would be largely on its own for a while, or would they be thinking about a pincer attack from transnistria and what repercussions would that bring with it involving another country in this mess even closer to a NATO border?

I do wonder what happened with those landing ships though, because they went to a lot of hassle to preposition amphibious assets from the Northern and Baltic fleets. There should be at least 9 Ropucha's an Ivan Gren and some old Alligators in the Black Sea area. Last I heard the Ivan Gren class ship was in the Sea of Azov with at least two Ropucha's but I've seen nothing after that.
 

Capt. Ironpants

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10. I think this is real. AP confirms via US DoD sources that not one but TWO Il-76s were shot down roughly 50 miles south of Kyiv during a major airborne assault operation.
Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.

Edited to fix messed-up quote box.
 
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Feanor

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I saw this report on marineschepen.nl and it seems CNN and this website are also reporting that the Russian navy has performed amphibious assaults in the Sea of Azov to the West of Mariupol. They say that according to the Pentagon the Russians landed "thousands of troops". I can't find anything about this on this livemap and I don't remember seeing it here, so is this nonsense or have I missed something? Has it been debunked already?
It has not, this would line up with reports above of a troop landing near Melitopol'. That's what's west of Mariupol' (well that and Berdyansk).

I do remember seeing a report somewhere that they where loading troops onto transports, and I've been wondering what happened with those and where they would be landing. Personally I expected them to land somewhere West of Mariupol, so it makes sense to me. But if they landed in the afternoon I would've expected to see reports about it from sources beside the Pentagon. And I haven't seen anything about any fighting near the west of Mariupol. There's plenty about contacts in and around Melitopol but that's a bit far to the West to be an Amphibious pincer movement on Mariupol.
There are also regular ground troops heading out of Crimea that way.

I have also seen a report about a failed amphibious assault near Odessa, but the map shows it just to the West of Ochakiv and it indicates a bunch of military installations near that place what looks to be some sort of naval facility. And to the West (some 20 miles) of the indicated landing zone there are some more military installations. In fact, all along that stretch of coastline I can see on google maps what look to be dispersal sites for something like shore launched ASM launchers or air defense.

It doesn't look like a very inviting place for an amphibious landing, and it's too far away to support the assault on Kherson and I don't get why they would assault Odessa. None of their other assaults are moving in that direction so the assault would be largely on its own for a while, or would they be thinking about a pincer attack from transnistria and what repercussions would that bring with it involving another country in this mess even closer to a NATO border?
There are Russian ships off the Odessa coast, so presumably a landing is a matter of time, it might be synchronized with the fall of Nikolaev and advance of troops from the south. It's pretty crazy that a push out of Crimea is getting much better results that the move on Kharkov.
 

Feanor

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Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.

Edited to fix messed-up quote box.
Russia seems to have launched some very ambitious air-assault operations at Gostomel' and now Vasilkov airfields to cut off Kiev from the west. The first failed to secure a landing for larger troop formations, the second apparently looked secure enough, and then didn't work out quite as planned.
 

OPSSG

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Zelenskyy said, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.” Whatever happens the next few weeks, in Ukraine's collective memory, President Zelenskyy will live forever.

Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.
There is nothing wrong with Russian plans, it’s normal execution risk in any airborne or heliborne operations — part of the planning process is to provide for contingencies — like aircraft malfunction or being shot down. IMO, the Ukrainian Army intelligence assessment was spot on and they predicted the jump and had SAM assets in place.

All professional armies are to some extent predictable — due to common staff planning process. The Russian Army wants to use its airborne troops to speed their advance and need to take some risks to get the pay off. In this case, it did not work out as planned.
 
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Steinmetz

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Looks like a Mi-24 did a bit of damage to some Ukrainian units along a highway.


Ukrainian tanks in wooded ambush positions facing the approaches to Kiev.


Looks like it was only light VDV and SoF engaging inside Kiev itself. Relatively sporadic. It's dawn now, still no photographic or video evidence of downed Il-76. With a plane that big, debris field would be big.

Still seeing several conflicting reports of Zelensky - Putin agreements to negotiations.


It's clear Ukraine has had some good success for now. I am also surprised that Russian had less opposition in the south and more around Kharkiv.
 

Feanor

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Update.

The Fighting.
In Kiev.


There is sporadic firing all over Kiev. It appears that handing out a ton of automatic weapons to random civilians was not a good idea. Who would have thought. Also the 101st Brigade, which is the guard unit for Ukraine's General HQ, is getting hit by strikes.


Gunfire and flames at Victory Prospect in Kiev and near Beresteyskaya subway station. The latter location is near the 101st brigade so it's possible someone is attacking Ukrainian troops there.


Sporadic firing around Kiev.


A family of 5 was killed in car that was shot up by territorial defense fighters who thought it was a Russian vehicle... somehow.


There are reports of bandits in Kiev posing a territorial defense soldiers robbing people.


An old Kamaz truck was shot up, allegedly carrying Russian diversants.


Footage of armed civilians around Kiev. It's unclear if they are territorial defense or random people.


Ukraine is reporting 60 "diversants" killed in Kiev. Given the friendly fire incidents, and the dead civilians, I suspect none of them are actual Russian troops.


Tank traps and actual military checkpoints are setting up around Kiev.


Territorial defense units digging improvised fighting positions.


Alleged map of Ukrainian checkpoints and positions in Kiev.


A Ukrainian troop column in Kiev.


A downed Ukrainain Su-27 in Kiev.


Around Kiev.

Ukrainian tanks have been spotted on the road west out of Kiev, near the village of Stoyanka.


Russian troops have landed and allegedly seized Vasil'kov airbase, but there are still reports of combat from the area. This is the location where some sources are claiming Ukraine shot down an Il-76 with Russian paratroopers. Evidence on that is lacking.


There are reports of fighting at Shulyavka, outskirts of Kiev.


Civilians hiding in a bomb shelter in Kiev.


An alleged friendly fire incident took place between Ukrainian troops in Zhitomyr.


There are reports of Russian troops at Vorzel, West-North-West of Kiev.


The North.

Footage from Ukraine's 169th Training Center at Desna where something very large landed but missed.


Footage of shelling damage in Ravnopol'ye, a small town north of Chernigov.


The Kharkov-Sumy Area.

Footage of Russian troops in Belgorod region. It's likely they're bringing up additional units for the push around Kharkov and Sumy.


A destroyed Russian Tunguska near Kharkov.


A fire at a Ukrainian fuel dump in Kharkov, possible hit by a missile strike.


Firing near Saltovka, Kharkov outskirts.


Shelling of North-West Kharkov outskirts.


We have unconfirmed reports that the commander of Ukraine's 92nd Mech Bde was killed in action.


A Russian troop column in Sumy.


A Russian Buk-M2 column in Sumy.


Another destroyed bridge in Kharkov region.


LDNR Front.

Reports of Ukrainian troops parking combat vehicles next to schools in Mariupol'. Earlier there was footage of them hiding under an apartment building, so let's see if any documentation surfaces this time.


There are reports that the 36th Marine Bde was pushed back from the Pavlopol'sk water reservoir by rebel forces, with 5 prisoners. They allegedly surrendered after their NLAWs misfired. Presumably they were up against rebel armor.


Some images of rebel forces.


A Ukrainian column existing Severo-Donetsk.


Rebel forces crossing Severniy Donets river using a pontoon bridge.


More footage of Ukrainian POWs, surrendered to the rebels.


There are reports of 17 more surrendered Ukrainian soldiers from the 57th Mech Bde.

 

Feanor

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The South.

Head of Nikolaev says VSU still controls the town, there has been no Russian amphibious landing, just missile strikes. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine's flagship, on repairs in Nikolaev, was sunk.


A giant explosion in or near Nikolaev. It may have been a fuel dump.


Ukrainian helos allegedly brought reinforcements to Nikolaev.


A firefight near Nikolaev.


Reports of Ukrainian troops set up in ambush next to a door north-east of Nikolaev.


Gunfire is heard around Novaya Kahvoka.


Airstrikes near Novaya Kahovka, at village Kozatskoye.


An abandoned T-64BV near Kherson.


More footage of the same borderguard soldiers that surrendered in the south.


A column of Russian ambulance buses near the Armyansk border checkpoint out of Crimea.


Russian Mi-35s operating out of Crimea.


Air defenses firing in Odessa.


Russian army wounded have been delivered to the hospital at Novaya Kahovka.


Russian troops entering Ukraine from Crimea across the Armyansk border checkpoint.


Russian troops moving through Primorsk from Melitopol' towards Mariupol'.


Another Russian troop column (or the same?) heading towards Berdyansk and Mariupol' from the west.


The Losses.

A Ukrainian Buk-M1 destroyed by a Russian Mi-24, on a trailer. Location unknown. Some sources are trying to claim it's a Russian Buk hit by a Javelin.


Belarus.

Satellite images of Russian troops and helos staging.


Misc.

A Russian Kamaz-based guntruck.


Russian Khrizantema ATGM carriers spotted, location unknown.


A Russian National Guard unit, location unknown, but definitely part of this operation.


A Russian Lynx captured by Ukranian troops. Location unknown, it might be in the south.


Another map of the action. Like all others, please treat with a grain of salt. Accuracy is questionable.


Assorted destroyed bridges across eastern Ukraine.

 

danonz

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There is nothing wrong with Russian plans, it’s normal execution risk in any airborne or heliborne operations — part of the planning process is to provide for contingencies — like aircraft malfunction or being shot down. IMO, the Ukrainian Army intelligence assessment was spot on and they predicted the jump and had SAM assets in place.

All professional armies are to some extent predictable — due to common staff planning process. The Russian Army wants to use its airborne troops to speed their advance and need to take some risks to get the pay off. In this case, it did not work out as planned.
Not sure if the Russians have anything similar to the Boeing EA Growler - if they did would something like that escorting the transport plans provide enough interface to disable the Sam missiles and /or to fire anti radiation missiles when the Sam became active
 

OPSSG

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Not sure if the Russians have anything similar to the Boeing EA Growler - if they did would something like that escorting the transport plans provide enough interface to disable the Sam missiles and /or to fire anti radiation missiles when the Sam became active
War planners don’t think like civilians — factoring in a SEAD mission is not the be all of de-risking an airborne mission. Ops planning is a disciplined process to consider METT-TC. METT-TC stands for mission, enemy, terrain, troops available, time, and civilian considerations.
 

ngatimozart

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Russia is forced to do this. Russia does not shoot at the cities of Ukraine. What would the United States do if fascists got into Canada and Americans were killed for eight years?
Russians know well what war is....And they don't want to kill anyone, but if they ran into our people, we snapped...
and finally listen to this: Do the Russians want a war . (If an advertisement appears, click the "Пропустить" button)
This is an international defence forum and we deal with verifiable facts. With regard to the reasons for Putin's attack and declaration of war on the Ukraine there are no verifiable facts in Putin's claims. He has committed an act of unprovoked wanton aggressive war in contravention of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, which by the way Russia is a signatory too. We don't discuss politics and we don't allow propaganda.
 

koxinga

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Mate I'm having a beer in the pub right now and restrained is the last word on my mind when I see this
In my opinion every Ukrainian refugee is welcome in my country I want them on my team
In a military sense, we speak of numbers and assigned categories of violence to assess the situation. On a human level, however, every life lost is one life too many.

My sense right now fear for the worst. The harder the Ukrainian resistance, the more likely that Putin will unleash hell and be indescriminate to achieve his goals.

Time is not on his side. I can't see Russia continuing beyond 3, 4 weeks as the cost both militarily and financially would be unsustainable. I understand the goal of the Ukrainian defenders is to make the Russian forces bleed for every inch of ground they take and rightly so. But the toil would be extremely high, especially on the civilians and infrastructure.

Strategically, does it make sense to keep Kiev or to declare it an open city after a period of resistance? It is symbolic, yes. But as long as the Armed Forces/political structure remain, they remain a viable player (supported by the west) in any post war situation.
 

ngatimozart

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@Musashi_kenshin & @STURM I know that you two love a good debate with each other, but stay on topic please. Iraqi and Middle East insurgent politics are not pertinent to this discussion. The topic is confusing enough at the moment without unrelated subjects being bought into it.
 
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Feanor

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War planners don’t think like civilians — factoring in a SEAD mission is not the be all of de-risking an airborne mission. Ops planning is a disciplined process to consider METT-TC. METT-TC stands for mission, enemy, terrain, troops available, time, and civilian considerations.
And Il-76s landing could be brought down by AAA or MANPADS, not susceptible to EW. There's too little info at this time to say for sure. Not to mention Russian SEAD efforts haven't exactly eradicated all Ukrainian air defense. Secreting away a few Buks or Osas isn't that hard.
 
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