I don't think he's been over optimistic. It depends upon how much they are willing to take advantage of opportunities, for example say acquiring 6 surplus Air NZ ATR72 aircraft and fitting the sensors, coms gear etc., off the P3K2 to them. The aircraft will be relatively inexpensive and we've already got the gear, so it's a cost effective option and the work could potentially be done here, maybe at Woodbourne which IIRC, did the P3K2.
The UAV could be the MQ-9B SeaGuardian which is significantly cheaper than the MQ-4C Triton. Satellites are different story and traditional surveillance satellites are expensive and sitting targets. They could lease / buy sensor bandwidth off commercial birds but that's expensive and doesn't supply all the data that they require. They could look at new technologies such as cubesats and work with those. The sensors are certainly being miniaturized enough to possibly fit a satellite that could be launched from Mahia, but would they be willing to take such a risk? I think at some stage they will have to seriously consider cubesats because NZDF will require replacement satellites to be launched quickly as existing satellites are neutralized. It would be something that our allies would also be very interested in because (from memory) we and the US have the only operational satellite launch facilities on sovereign territory within FVEY. Outside of FVEY, the only other partner nation within the region would be Japan.
Yes I guess ATR-72 could be re-purposed fairly comfortably but would US approval be forthcoming to swap P3 systems over?...and what about support of those systems? Possibly surmountable... but we do always tend to say we shouldn't go leading-edge on a orphan hybrid capability. Maybe just do an COTS fit out of a supported, new sensor system rather than re-using P3 systems... . AirNZ will be largely a domestic airline going forward so will they want to release any of the domestic fleet.... dunno, many variables! Still adamant it won't involve ASW or ASuw capability though.
With respect to the EMAC this PDF is quite interesting... https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/publication/file/e4ddc7952d/NEA-Tranche-2.pdf
Whilst seemingly unconnected there is a table on the last page that states in relation to EMAC that the current business case stage is:
Enhanced Maritime Awareness Capability: Single Stage (Approval of a preferred option)
That suggests some aspects of the EMAC project are a lot further down the path than the AVM alludes to in the article!