Guys I don't disagree with any of your criticism of helo acquisition numbers ... to me it's short term thinking when we are facing an uncertain future.
However let's try and unpack things. Firstly NZDF is obtaining a premium ASW platform and that comes with considerable cost (including for the sensors - some of which RNZN helos haven't had before i.e. dipping sonar, processing, secure datalinks etc, which I understand isn't cheap). Also from the DefMin's comments (ok unofficial until we see the FMS details etc) it looks like the Govt will also be investing in a useful weapon loadout and if that is the intention, again that will come at a considerable cost.
Mention has been made that tranche 2 includes infrastructure (hopefully that's a new state-of-the-art hanger, with maintenance support workshops, mission operations centre, flight simulator space etc), if so again that's considerable cost (roughly the cost of an MH-60+ in itself). If so, presumably the costs are included in the $2B+" budget and that means the development project can get underway relatively quickly.
Secondly, on numbers itself, it's more-or-less the rule of 3 (albeit the "6-1" rule compromise) to allow two concurrent deployments (potentially surging to three if there is a pressing need eg emergency deployment). The RNZN operates a relatively small fleet and can anyone say when has RNZN has deployed more than two vessels with full helicopter operational compliments concurrently? I'm not sure that's ever happened but happy to hear otherwise.
I think the 8 (or 10 including the 2 fully built up spares) SH-2G(I) procurement last decade was an aberration - it was one of those rare opportunities that presented itself and at a bargain price for the GOTD to ignore, funding wise (kind of like how we acquired 10 ex-RAN A-4G's "from nowhere" or the two ex-RN Type 12 Leander's without any delays in the 1980's).
If we look back at the RNZN operating the Westland Wasp HAS.1 or SH-2G(NZ) at any one time only a few were operational. Then when operating the SH-2G(I) over the last decade the RNZN has said (previously, unsure if the current situation has seen improvements) they only had two qualified Seasprite ship deck crews (plus a third composite flight crew for HMNZS Canterbury to support both Seapsrite and NH90 operations when required).
Thirdly, the NZ-US dollar exchange rate hasn't been great of late. The best time to acquire US systems in the last few years would have been February 2021 when the US dollar was $NZ0.75! Currently it is $NZ0.59.
Look I don't say these things to excuse the Govt, I'm simply pointing out these are the cards the NZG/NZDF have been dealt and in my mind they are playing things rather well (particularly if we use many past acquisitions as a comparison).
NZDF is obtaining a high-end product allowing full interoperability with the ADF and US in the Pacific. LM/Sikorsky has opened a state-of-the-art Maintenance and Logistics Support facility at RAN Nowra, meaning the higher-level maintenance for the NZDF's MH-60R's (like the NZDF P-8A's) can be carried out across the Tasman (rather than traveling all the way to the US) meaning greater efficiencies, and less downtime and improved flying availability (compared to the SH-2G(I)'s) due to access to secure supply chains etc.
However I do agree things ought be a bit better in terms of the proposed acquisition. What I'd like to see is if there is an improvement in the US-NZ exchange rate as the deal is being finalised over the next few months, then acquire at least a 6th airframe (fully kitted out). It gives NZ another deployable option should tensions increase in the Pacific (eg increasingly "hostile" naval presence within our immediate region - that's a given as it is already happening).
I also wonder about the tranche 3 uncrewed option/acquisition. Whilst I think this is a great opportunity for the RNZN to acquire a complimentary capability relatively fast (as it will be a project underway), I'm happy to corrected here, but I don't think any Navy has settled on a MUM-T capability which is operational yet? If that's the case I wonder if the better approach would be to treat tranche 3 as a development project then align or buy into an existing ADF or USN project with a view to starting a new formal acquisition project to acquire the capability when platforms have been settled on? I'm happy to be corrected if I'm wrong on this.
So instead, divert some of the remaining funding for tranche 3 (less the project/development costs that needs to be spent) into acquiring, say three, additional MH-60R with or without the sonar/sensor/console/systems and use them for the RNZN's OPV/Auxiliary fleet for lift/replenishment and overwatch functions when conducting EEZ/UN enforcement, or for troop insertion from HMNZS Canterbury. This somewhat aligns with the ADF acquiring additional MH-60R's (potentially minus the sensor/console if required to be removed for non-ASW operations) as replacements for the six MRH90 tactical helos. Seeing that the MH-60S is no longer available (or alternatively cheaper S-60/70's). After all the OPV/Auxiliaries don't necessarily need fully ASW capable helos as they lack the means to utilise their strengths. It then means the five ASW MH-60R's being sought now are fully available for FFH tasking, which is the priority.
By having an additional navalised "utility" MH-60R (or S-60/70) option for the OPV/Auxiliaries, this frees up the (non-navalised) NH90 to be fully available for domestic and overseas land-support deployments (perhaps even future Ukraine "coalition of the willing" "peacekeeping" support contribution? After all the NH90's have just received a NATO interoperable secure comms upgrade) and instead of being operated on HMNZS Canterbury as they are now at times. This would also better inform the NH90's future replacement options, perhaps a mix of Blackhawk for land use and additional "Seahawk" or S70 for LPD use?
It also means the RNZN's MCM/dive support team, operating from HMNZS Otago (currently in dry dock being prepared to return to active service) can also operate from a naval air platform optimised with a decent sensor/secure comm fit out and enough cabin space to aid their operations with their kit and autonomous underwater systems. Thus allowing the enough ASW MH-60R's to be available for concurrent FFH operations, particularly with HMNZS Te Mana coming out of her extended maintenance period alongside and is now working up for deployment again.
Sure, probably a bit pie-in-the sky, but lets present the powers that be some solutions and reasons to spend "just a little bit more", after all there are now to be biennial defence reviews so come on guys let 'em know!