Argentine navy future
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Very early for speculation, the Argentinians weren't even confirming there was anything other than communication issues.
I would be very hesitant to read much into a sound report. with MH370 the media was chasing every sound that was reported, including the chinese picking up their own sonar equipment, and phantoms and biological noises. It still is like bigfoot sightings.
I don't know about you personally, but I don't have much faith in submarine escape systems. Apart from the fact I think its doubtful I personally would fit through the tube (at least in Collins), absolutely everything needs to go perfectly right for it to work out. And its very slow to evacuate the crew, and in most circumstances would release water into the sub, so if you have a buoyancy issue its going to make it very difficult who goes first and who is last.
Assending from that depth is not with out risk of injury as well. Best case that then gets you to the surface of the southern Atlantic ocean, in 8m seas and 70km winds. The sort of seas that just broke your submarine.
It would not be my first choice, I would be doing absolutely everything else first. At least hold out until your expected arrival or next coms, maybe send up epbir etc.
It may just be they had a coms failure and other minor damage, and due to rough seas (which took out coms) they may be submerged.
I would wait for more news. They aren't even sure what the sat coms signals were. The USN is on the case and have a rescue team in place.
Just a word of caution on the use of term EPIRBs. I don't know what the San Juan is fitted with but it would not be an EPIRB as such. It would be either be a tethered submarine location buoy or a store ejected from a submerged signal ejector such as the SEEPIRB (submarine-ejected emergency positioning indicating radio beacon) used by the UK .... or both.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
It appears that several rescue teams are being sent, if they have not arrived already.
Unfortunately things do not appear to look promising. The last communication from the sub was early Wednesday and reported a problem, which I have seen reported variously as a mechanical problem and a battery problem. One of the issues is that the sub should have sufficient oxygen to remain submerged for about seven days. Assuming that is what the sub did shortly after getting ordered to the Mar del Plata base following the report of the problem, then the sub likely has less than 36 hours of air remaining, and possibly much less than that.
So far, the signals reported over the weekend have been determined to not have come from the missing sub, and the sounds reported at a depth of 200 m have been reported as 'biological' in origin.
As for the condition of the sub itself, I honestly would not be surprised about there being issues aboard it, or other Argentinian naval vessels. Given the return of nominal democracy following the end of the Junta after the defeat in the Falklands, and the recurring economic crisis, the armed forces have received limited funding. The missing sub, ARA San Juan, is itself the newest sub in the navy, but was completed in 1983, and commissioned in 1985. Of the four additional TR1700-class which were ordered for construction in Argentina, two were laid down but never completed, and the other two had some parts ordered. In the end, just the two built in Germany entered service, with the parts for the other four being cannibalized to keep the completed subs in service. A MLU was done on ARA San Juan between 2008 and 2013 (budget constraints causing it to take so long) but the vessel itself is over 34 years old. It is not hard to imagine a vessel that old, which has had limited funding for operations and maintenance, to have various issues.
In 2014 the Santa Cruz ran aground, exposing its hull, it was pretty rotted out.
Then you had the destroyer that went wrong way up when tied to the pier.
https://www.infobae.com/2014/06/17/...o-varado-el-canal-ingreso-al-puerto-dock-sud/
I really don't expect the San Juan to be in any better shape.
Then you had the destroyer that went wrong way up when tied to the pier.
https://www.infobae.com/2014/06/17/...o-varado-el-canal-ingreso-al-puerto-dock-sud/
I really don't expect the San Juan to be in any better shape.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
This Subs has just finish the refit 4 years ago..and although TR 1700 is only being used by Argentine Navy..but still it 'should' make San Juan as still in viable condition..
If the condition of their lead Subs not in reliable stage..which resulted on this situation..then Argentine Navy should ceased their Submarine operation and get out frm Submarine business..
Still bit early to blame reliability due to maintenance issue as culprit..altough seems indication shown there..
If the condition of their lead Subs not in reliable stage..which resulted on this situation..then Argentine Navy should ceased their Submarine operation and get out frm Submarine business..
Still bit early to blame reliability due to maintenance issue as culprit..altough seems indication shown there..
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Additional news seem to indicate problems with the electrical system having been reported by the sub prior to losing contact with it.
While the "upgrades" were completed about four years ago in 2013, they had been started nine years, back in 2008. Reading an article here from five years ago, it seems that safety, parts and maintenance issues were common across the entire Argentine military. That resulted in kit either being out of service entirely, or with significantly reduced availability, which in turn led to drastic limitations for training. Depending on how one reads the article, the three subs in service either spent an average of 19 hours submerged each in 2012, or all three subs combined only spent 19 hours submerged in 2012.
The picture history has painted of the Argentine Navy's recent history is one of decaying equipment, and personnel that do not have much opportunity to build experience in using their equipment. Unfortunately, that is a good recipe for bad outcomes.
I'm getting a picture of a Navy in a greater state of decay than the Russian one just post collapse of the USSR. I hope the crew are rescued but it's a hostile place they're in.
Sub escape kit at the depths they may be at will be unusable I'd say so as has been said, if they're on the bottom, they will probably elect to stick with the boat.
Sub escape kit at the depths they may be at will be unusable I'd say so as has been said, if they're on the bottom, they will probably elect to stick with the boat.
Four years ago an Argentinean navy destroyer sank at her moorings in a naval base, where she'd been 'in reserve' for eight years, due to lack of money to do anything else with her. She stayed there for almost three years before being refloated. Maybe she'll become a museum ship, if anyone can raise the money.
Being stuck in a sunken submarine is pretty close to my worst nightmare. If they're still alive, I feel for the crew.
Being stuck in a sunken submarine is pretty close to my worst nightmare. If they're still alive, I feel for the crew.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The media report stated that the skiper of that subs reported that electrical problem already solved, and decided to submerge again while trying back to the base.
Wondering though, if the same problem reoccured while they are submerging, frm what I read so far on submarine operational, there's emergency procedures and redundancy system for emergency resurface. Can electrical problem caused total mechanical problem that hindered emergency resurfaced procedures ?
Wondering though, if the same problem reoccured while they are submerging, frm what I read so far on submarine operational, there's emergency procedures and redundancy system for emergency resurface. Can electrical problem caused total mechanical problem that hindered emergency resurfaced procedures ?
Argentinian military have been in a terrible state. They were busted trying to buy stolen jet engines from Malaysia. Ships sinking at port, general decay is at a very advanced stage. Many navies that "operate" similar aged/maintained subs often don't actually dive or if they do don't go below periscope depth or into deep waters. Lack of money and unwillingness to sell to them combined with too much pride to accept loss in capability have been a very bad mix. They would be in worse condition that museum boats.
I am hopeful, it may be that the sub experience damage during the storm, and for a variety of reasons they aren't keen to surface or deploy flares or beacons until the storm is known to have past and that people are actively looking for them.
If you had 7 days of air, and your at least in a dry stable condition, you would probably take those days to increase your chances of success. The sub escape system isn't like a plane ejection system. Its one at a time, and each time there is risk that it may fail or may make your current situation worse, and its likely using it will still leave you in a very vulnerable position. Ideally you would want to know a ship is directly above you with medical staff, decompression chamber, helicopter, divers etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_Escape_Training_Facility_(Australia)
If submariners have had training at one of the six escape training centres world wide, they would know how risky it is. There is a significant rate of fatalities at the training centers, even in perfect conditions, warm water with full medical facilities, divers, instructors, etc. And that is from a 22 metre ascent to the top of a pool.
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/622337.pdf
My old man did his, he said they would have divers at every 15 feet or so to check you were breathing out the whole way, if you weren't they would punch you in the gut.The feeling of breathing out too much to fast is extremely unnerving.
The sensation of continuously breathing out for over 180m ascent in the inky cold black of the open Atlantic in a raging storm from a sinking sub, with an 8m swell would be very strange and I would say hard to time right. You don't want to run out of air with a 100m to go, nor do you want to blow apart your lungs by not breathing out fast enough when you surface.
As one Collins class submariner was explaining to me about the escape system, this is what they tell their mothers they will use so they can sleep at night. The likely hood of using them successfully is very slim in a real emergency. Maybe if your ship sunk at port or at periscope depth or similar lucky misfortune. It doesn't mean you don't build one, and train to use it, but its not your first point in an emergency.
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If the weather was very bad I can understand why the Captain decided to submerge as this will reduce the motion of the vessel. Quite a sensible option in normal circumstances.
My experience is limited to Oberons' which were VERY manual. I would expect the 1700 would be able to blow tanks manually even in the event of electrical issues, however, if the boat was heavy (i.e it had lost some reserve buoyancy for some reason) propulsion would be important in driving the boat to the surface.
However, this is all speculation. I hope the poor buggers are found safe and sound but suspect the prognosis may be grim.
Mine too and yep, I too feel for the crew, their families and friends.
Me too and I think it's tomorrow that their O2 is supposed to be exhausted. All we can do is hope and pray for a successful conclusion.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
The last known contact from the sub was was shortly after 07:30 Wednesday on Nov. 15th and it is now ~04:10 Buenos Aires time (GMT-3) Nov. 22nd. I have seen reports that stated 7 days of air while submerged, and others stating 10 days.
It is hard to say since the stated sub crew complement is 37, but 44 crew were aboard. If the 7 day figure was correct, then it is likely the crew only has a few hours remaining if they have not exhausted their oxygen.
Hopefully, the sub is just having comms problems and has been able to get to at least periscope/snorkeling depth somewhere just outside of the search box, or has some other thing happen which enables the crew to be safely rescued.
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Depending on the systems in use the access to stores will have an impact. Looking back at the Oberon class .... these used sofa canisters to remove CO2 and a hyper oxide candle to generate oxygen. For these systems to work you had to be able to access the recant compartments and in the case of the canisters, have access to power if you were to cover more than one compartment.
If the boat is partially flooded then it could be worse. Not only may they not have access to store but there may be increased pressure in the boat mean escape could only be by rescue submersible if decompression sickness is to be avoided. Not being a portrayer of doom but reflecting on the difficult situation the poor buggers may be in.
The loss of the Kursk is a very relevant case study.
Some talk going round that an acoustic "anomaly" has been detected nearish the sub's last known position...
So, turns out the acoustic anomaly was something like an explosion...
Looks like the possible explosion was detected by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization's hydrophone stations on Ascension and Crozet islands.
walter
Active Member
Well from what i heared it's a sad day for the silent service,Rest in the depth.
It's confirmed by the Argetinian Navy.
Well Argentina just confirmed the death of the 44 sailors on board.
Heartbreaking news. RIP .
The Argentine navy confirms the death of the 44 crew members of the ARA San Juan
The worst of the scenarios was confirmed early in the morning by the Argentine navy, when it brought together the family members of the crew to tell them that the sad message of the death of the 44 crewmembers of the submarine ARA San Juan had disappeared last week.
The Argentinian navy reported yesterday that it was analyzing a 'hydroacoustic anomaly' that was detected a week ago in the Atlantic where the last known position of the submarine ARA San Juan was remedied, a sound almost three hours after the last communication with the ship .
Captain Enrique Balbi told the media at the headquarters of the navy in Buenos Aires that a warning was received responding to a 'hydroacoustic anomaly' observed at the last known position of the submarine last Wednesday in the Gulf Gulf San Jorge, 432 kilometers off the coast of Argentine Patagonia.
"The United States - one of the 13 countries that work together to search for submersible pumps - asked for (data) different bodies that focus on collecting different hydroacoustic events around the world," he added.
After collecting all information and conducting a thorough centralized analysis in the United States, that official indication was received corresponding to Wednesday, November 15 in the morning, coinciding with the area of the last known position of the submarine.
"This would be about 30 miles north of that position, on the way to Mar del Plata," the Buenos Aires city to which the ship left from the southern port of Ushuaia and where it would have arrived between Sunday and Monday.
The hydroacoustic anomaly and the US Navy report were reviewed in Argentina and sent to other international organizations that confirmed that it was an underwater explosion in the area where the submarine would be located.
The Navy gathered the family members and handed over the terrible news. The impact on the family members of the crew was terrible. Many of them have left the meeting and complain about the management of the situation by the government and the Argentine navy.
The relatives wonder how it is possible that they were kept in suspense for a week by mobilizing the operation if the data to locate the San Juan were available from the same day the disaster took place.
On the other hand, the family members continue to emphasize that the crew was condemned from the moment the submarine went to sea because of the poor state of maintenance it was in.
Argentina is one of the countries in Latin America that has invested least in defense since the time of 'Kirschnerism' that led the armed forces to a state of neglect that is now being paid.
However, little has been revealed about how the Argentine Navy confirmed the death of the sailors. It is known that the ship Cabo de Hornos of the Chilean navy and the Skandi Patagonia, a ship of the French oil company Total with an underwater rescue squadron of the US Navy, were in the vicinity of the accident.
The latest information indicates that the destruction of the submarine may be due to the explosion of one of its batteries due to a possible short circuit.
Rest in peace the brave companions of the sea.
[translated via google translate]
Source: Diariodenautica.com I El digital marítimo de referencia @ Article [Spanish]
It's confirmed by the Argetinian Navy.
Well Argentina just confirmed the death of the 44 sailors on board.
Heartbreaking news. RIP .
The Argentine navy confirms the death of the 44 crew members of the ARA San Juan
The worst of the scenarios was confirmed early in the morning by the Argentine navy, when it brought together the family members of the crew to tell them that the sad message of the death of the 44 crewmembers of the submarine ARA San Juan had disappeared last week.
The Argentinian navy reported yesterday that it was analyzing a 'hydroacoustic anomaly' that was detected a week ago in the Atlantic where the last known position of the submarine ARA San Juan was remedied, a sound almost three hours after the last communication with the ship .
Captain Enrique Balbi told the media at the headquarters of the navy in Buenos Aires that a warning was received responding to a 'hydroacoustic anomaly' observed at the last known position of the submarine last Wednesday in the Gulf Gulf San Jorge, 432 kilometers off the coast of Argentine Patagonia.
"The United States - one of the 13 countries that work together to search for submersible pumps - asked for (data) different bodies that focus on collecting different hydroacoustic events around the world," he added.
After collecting all information and conducting a thorough centralized analysis in the United States, that official indication was received corresponding to Wednesday, November 15 in the morning, coinciding with the area of the last known position of the submarine.
"This would be about 30 miles north of that position, on the way to Mar del Plata," the Buenos Aires city to which the ship left from the southern port of Ushuaia and where it would have arrived between Sunday and Monday.
The hydroacoustic anomaly and the US Navy report were reviewed in Argentina and sent to other international organizations that confirmed that it was an underwater explosion in the area where the submarine would be located.
The Navy gathered the family members and handed over the terrible news. The impact on the family members of the crew was terrible. Many of them have left the meeting and complain about the management of the situation by the government and the Argentine navy.
The relatives wonder how it is possible that they were kept in suspense for a week by mobilizing the operation if the data to locate the San Juan were available from the same day the disaster took place.
On the other hand, the family members continue to emphasize that the crew was condemned from the moment the submarine went to sea because of the poor state of maintenance it was in.
Argentina is one of the countries in Latin America that has invested least in defense since the time of 'Kirschnerism' that led the armed forces to a state of neglect that is now being paid.
However, little has been revealed about how the Argentine Navy confirmed the death of the sailors. It is known that the ship Cabo de Hornos of the Chilean navy and the Skandi Patagonia, a ship of the French oil company Total with an underwater rescue squadron of the US Navy, were in the vicinity of the accident.
The latest information indicates that the destruction of the submarine may be due to the explosion of one of its batteries due to a possible short circuit.
Rest in peace the brave companions of the sea.
[translated via google translate]
Source: Diariodenautica.com I El digital marítimo de referencia @ Article [Spanish]
It's bad news, bad news indeed. The only crumb of comfort would be that presumably the end would have been mercifully quick for the crew.
I'm hoping they'll scrap the sister ship and face up to the responsibilities of providing their armed forces with equipment that's in better repair.
I'm hoping they'll scrap the sister ship and face up to the responsibilities of providing their armed forces with equipment that's in better repair.