Realistically would the A400 be a tactical lifter in NZ use or is it more a strategic lifter given its voluminous internal cargo hold and its range? If so, would it not be the replacement for the B757 and not the venerable C130H?
Even the RAF, French and German AF's realize the benefits of aircraft of the C130 size in addition to their larger A400 and C17.
B200 to A400 is IMHO too much of a capability gap. Some mid size type is required in order to give options that are more financially responsible.
Three A400 and five KC390 would cover most taskings. Like RegR I too believe there is a role for the C295 in RNZAF colours. If there was an opportunity for this to happen I would prefer three of each type theoretically allowing one of each type at all times. This option has a secondary benefit if the KC390 and the C295W were fitted with EO turrets to give them an enhanced search function to allow them to be the primary SAR eyes in place of the likely P8.
Nine ramp equipped aircraft all capable of rough field operation offering a combined maximum lift of 480 tons, double the current capability with two additional airframes. From a commanders perspective having access to 1 ton, 10 ton, 23 ton and 40 ton maximum lift aircraft is a huge plus when determining the most appropriate response. No single aircraft can do everything well. Yes I agree there is an added cost of adding a third type but I think the overall savings provided in the utility of having options is value in itself especially when each platform can multi task. And of corse there is value in overall numbers of airframes.
Let's hope that 2017 sees movement in these programs.
The fact A400 has strategic qualities as well as tactical ability is more of a bonus and not a designation and is more the way of the future ie multi-role/purpose platforms. I actually think we need to look more at the type and function rather than focus on the title of the "role" as as you say a B200 is as different to A400 as C130 is different to B757. If a single particular type can cover/crossover both Tac and strat then do we really need to shoehorn them in as replacement for a particular type in our legacy fleet based on current numbers as TBH for me personally A400 is nothing remotely like our current B757s in terms of operation, use or requirement other than they both have wings and fly. Range, speed and volume are attributes, type, role and employment are abilities but do we really need to get stuck on old type casts especially if we can blend the 2 more readily these days in terms of performance.
The big boys (with matching budgets) can afford multiple tiers to cover multiple roles but sadly we have to be more selective and choose the type(s) that cover the most roles/tasks we conduct. I think A400 and C130J are too similar in fact A400 was/is originally touted as the replacement for current C130/transall types in user fleets. Those countries that are aqquiring more C130 types are for more specialized roles such as tankers and SF support currently not covered, signed off, suited or lacking in A400, all of which are not currently big NZDF factors or likely to warrant a seperate type at added cost for such small numbers. For us A400 ticks the boxes our current hercs are lacking in ie outsize/weight that new build hercs would not solve and along with a C295 type would cover a wider range of the overall transport spectrum ie light to heavy (and everything in between) rather than say a C130/A400 mix of medium/heavy to heavy (too close). I cannot see us getting 3 types in our air transport fleet due to duplication, support, training, logistics, numbers, costs etc especially since even 2 types (to replace C130 direct) still seems like a pipedream at the moment. I do agree we need some kind of tier though as A400 is still a larger more complex beast, I just feel 2 rather than 3 is more realistic and achievable for us. The fact A400 and C295 are from the same stable is also advantageous as would a C130 and C27, mix and matching manufacturers loses synergy benefits somewhat in terms of support, logistics and even training.
Agreed on adding the EO turrets to add to and support the P8s (especially if we are only getting 4) or better yet allocated maritime versions alongside transport with a degree of task sharing. Strength in numbers, coverage of lesser tasks, graduated training and cost savings are all added benefits of a common "medium" fleet. B200 is what I would consider light transport (if you consider 5 seats transport that is) and alittle light on the proposed maritime side as well (essentially a flasher Mark1 eyeball with no growth potential) and without and increase in numbers too few to make a viable contribution in any added task on top of their already current roles. I can see the cost savings in such an arrangement but also the limitations.
As you say hopefully 2017 brings more clarity and direction at least, in both transport and maritime projects, as we seem to just be treading water now.