This as I have said before does not rule out the P8 it simply means that it will face stiffer competition.
If I've correctly interpreted many recent (and previous) posts and comments (on this thread and elsewhere at DT) by those with industry and inside experience, and although it is early days in the FASC scheme of things, one other but huge advantage of a Boeing solution is that all the hard work (integration, training, SOP's, support etc) has been done and the NZDF, another 5E partner, leverages off this investment which has already been made by other customers.
For Embraer and the Japanese, if NZ is their first export customer, presumably NZ will be expected to share some of these major integration type costs, even things like manual language translation costs (for aircrew and maintainers at home and presumably Kiwi personnel would be based in these countries for a time learning etc), developing SOP's (for integration with other 5E/NATO type capabilities), making certain unique "ANZUS" technologies "work" etc, which no doubt will add to project acquisition costs and timeframes. Then what about the logistics support train? Not quite the same as the mighty US system in which NZ buys as and when needed etc.
I also thought due to lessons learnt, that this Govt was less risk adverse and wouldn't want to be a lead customer?
It is very early days in the FASC project, no doubt the experts in Defence are very aware themselves of all these issues being raised here by various people, best we let them work through it and in time more will be revealed?
Granted, the main spanner in the works which you've identified, is that the GOTD could jolly well do what they think is best in terms of project funding/directives. I think the saving grace this time is the fact that the world in the 2020's will be just as more uncertain as it is now, let alone as it was in the past 10-20-30 years (when Govt's tinkered with defence project funding to suit their "benign strategic environment" worldview) and more likely to heed advice from Defence officials!