Royal New Zealand Air Force

[recce.k1]

One point about ISR/EW capability: can NZ afford to be a player in this field? I doubt we could keep up with the rapid advances in technology. Look at how our P-3's ASW kit failed to keep up. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that the upgrades that have just been approved are some 2nd hand / surplus equipment from retired USN P-3Cs. $36m for 6 aircraft seems awfully low.

Peter Greener's often quoted Timing is Everything (The Politics and Processes of New Zealand Defence Acquisition Decision Making) analysis of the P-3 and it's upgrade history states that for the planned upgrades in the 2000's by Raytheon the cost difference (at the time) to have the sub-surface capability option was only US$7million (US$236m with v US$229m without).*

I guess from that we can deduce it's obviously the main mission systems upgrades that incurs the most (as in hundreds of millions - eg data management systems, radar, electronic surveillance measures, electro-optics, communications, navigation and mission support etc as per the recent P-3 Systems Upgrade which commenced 2005/06, with the first aircraft completed in 2011 and the last in 2014). The sub-surface option then is a (smaller) component there of, which integrates into the already upgraded systems.

So the current $36 million underwater ISR upgrade cost seems about right and is current technology as per The Diplomat article (and yes, as you then allude to in your next post, the technology is transferable between the P-3 and P-8 platform, which should be the case of course). What a good thing we are on to eh!

*[From re-reading Greener's analysis of the P-3's RNZAF upgrade history, I've just realised that then Labour's (and critics like Hager's) arguments against upgrading the P-3's at the time by framing the argument in ASW terms and therefore the upgrade cost was too expensive for what they viewed as being an unnecessary capability is simply deceitful spin, for as Greener notes the ASW upgrade was only a measly, non-contentious US$7 million. The bulk of the cost was actually for other necessary mission systems that ironically Labour then agreed to undertake some 3-4 years later]!

 

[ngatimozart]

Just as a general remark about ISR EW and other things. About 20 - 25 years ago I read a scientific paper by some physicists who had managed to successfully teleport matter from one location to another. Just like the teleport in Star Trek - "Scotty beam me up" In that paper they had teleported a photon from one side of their lab to the other. What the important point for me from that paper was that they said the most valuable commodity in the universe is information because with information the sky is basically the limit. So when I assess the merits of a platform or similar one of the things I will look at is, what information can that platform provide NZDF or the armed force involved.

The P8 is not just about hunting and killing subs and surface ships; it's about far more than that. ASW & ASuW are only part of its capability set. It now includes ISR, EW, COMMS, ELINT, ECM, overland ISR, etc., basically a C4ISR / C5ISR platform. The USN are planning to give it the ability to conduct air surveillance as well. All of these new capabilities are information gathering and dissemination via data fusion processes which requires a lot of computing power. Hence it's all about the gathering of, manipulating, analysing and disseminating of information in an accurate and timely manner in order for it to be acted upon favourably. This is a really good article on it.

So how do you integrate and use all of this newly acquired information? How sensor information has been historically processed on the P3s or other MPA / AWACS type platforms has to change because of the share volume of data and complexity of it. The RAAF are taking a new approach with their E7A Wedgetail AEW&C. This article looks at how they have approached this and where they are heading. it is not being driven by air staff in Canberra but by the aircrew on the Sqn and Wing themselves and it is this methodology that has been the catalyst for the solving of the problems that the RAAF had getting the Wedgetail to IOC. They intend to have a similar operator methodology in the cabin of the P8. Another point from the Wedgetail articles, is that all the software will be continually upgraded so the belief is that the Wedgetail will not achieve FOC in it's lifetime because of that.

I've mentioned the Wedgetail before on this thread with regard to the P8 and people have said that we are not getting the Wedgetail and that is very true, however I was / am using the Wedgetail to illustrate the sensor, data management, data manipulation etc., capabilities that will be very similar to the P8 systems and capabilities. Also these aircraft (E7A and P8A) are nodes that can transfer targeting data digitally to other platforms or between platforms if necessary, acting as a link. That is something that legacy AWACS and MPAs cannot do except by vox.

 

[40 deg south]

Some great new info and links there. Thanks everyone.

Halogen
Welcome to the circus, and thanks for The Diplomat link. I'm a fan of the publication, but that particular story passed me by. New acoustic processors, at $6 million a plane, eh. Seems like a bargain!

Swerve
Thanks for more info around the Boeing/Embraer tie-up. I read that piece when it first came out, but had forgotten the details and couldn't find it when I looked. Looks like a smart move by Boeing to elbow their way into turf currently occupied by Lockheed Martin. In much the same way as LockMart are trying to grab a slice of Boeings surveillance market with the Sea Hercules.

Rob c/Ngati
I guess we will just have to wait and see what 'second airfield' is being referred to in the RFI. I think the possibiilty of a runway extension at Ohakea isn't out of the question. The 'Base Regeneration' plan released a couple of weeks ago suggested the former plan to concentrate more forces around the Linton/Ohakea hubs might be getting a new lease of life, although there was no specific mention of runway extension.

Of course, there is always NZ's third longest runway at Invercargill! Great for Antarctic ops, not so good for recruitment/retention.

Chis73
Thanks for correcting my wildly inaccurate recollections of orders for the P-8 and P-1. The gap in orders between the two types is a little narrower than I had thought. But the P-8 is more likely to pick up extra orders - see this from Janes about Korea contemplating a four-aircraft order. If they go for it, the price may be a very good indicator of what NZ will end up paying.
South Korea mulls purchase of four Boeing P-8 Poseidon aircraft, says report | IHS Jane's 360

Various
In the Surveillance RFI, the document asks about the ability of any proposed platforms to carry out overland surveillance and electronic intelligence-gathering/electronic warfare tasks. From the document structure, it looks like these would be handy add-ons rather than core capability. In a similar manner, they ask whether the proposed platform would be able to assist with mobility tasks like medivac, cargo transport etc.

Thanks for helping make this one of the most interesting military discussion threads on the interwebs.

 

[40 deg south]

....

The annoying criterion for me is the decison to make VIP ability Essential for the Strategic transport. Really? Should have been Desirable in my opinion. Predictable though. Can't see John Key (or any future PM) wanting to arrive in a cargo plane, especially an A400M (your plane has propellers. How frightfully quaint!).

I understand many people feel the same, but I disagree. Key and other PMs/Ministers have been perfectly willing to be transported by Herc around the Pacific when that has been the only available option. But is is much slower and less user-friendly than the Boeings.

The main effect of the Boeings (in VIP role) is the ability to move groups of people quickly, and the most precious resource of Ministers is time. Having the Boeings available means Ministers are willing/able to undertake overseas trips they couldn't otherwise fit in, mainly because the down time incurred while traveling is reduced. (Mainly this is through not having to hang about waiting for commercial connections, but traveling at C-130 speed eats into that).

This ability/willingness to travel internationally is a good thing for NZ, and the ability to cart the leadership of friendly Pacific governments around with us is another element in NZ's soft power.

I agree it isn't strictly a military task, but there isn't any other organisation in NZ well set up to deliver it. And it does give government/senior officials exposure to the NZDF that they otherwise wouldn't get. I strongly suspect it will end up being delivered by a different aircraft type to the strategic airlifter, potentially a leased/chartered commercial aircraft.

 

[Waylander]

Wouldn't a dedicated Dassault Falcon 7x or similar aircraft fit that role much better?

 

[Sam W]

Wouldn't a dedicated Dassault Falcon 7x or similar aircraft fit that role much better?

I hate to think of the negative publicity that would be generated with "Key using public money to buy a private jet!". The only downside I see is the capacity: max 19, it this enough? I'm imagining the press might have to fly commercial!

There is something impressive about the 757's size though.

 

[halogen]

Halogen
Welcome to the circus, and thanks for The Diplomat link. I'm a fan of the publication, but that particular story passed me by. New acoustic processors, at $6 million a plane, eh. Seems like a bargain!

The K2 really is in an interesting space between the traditional ASW P3s which had clearly defined roles and the P8 which has the benefit of being on a next-generation platform. Another link (which I can't post yet) is the top google result for "kiwiflyer p3" which is an article covering the return of the first aircraft to NZ five years ago and the change in capabilities the upgrade represented.

http://www.kiwiflyer.co.nz/KiwiFlyer-Issue-17-Orion-P3K2-Upgrade-for-RNZAF.pdf

 

[Waylander]

I hate to think of the negative publicity that would be generated with "Key using public money to buy a private jet!". The only downside I see is the capacity: max 19, it this enough? I'm imagining the press might have to fly commercial!

There is something impressive about the 757's size though.

It's not as if nearly every other country on earth operates dedicated government planes...

Make it a mixed VIP/MEDEVAC plane. Usefull and sellable to the public.

 

[John Fedup]

I hate to think of the negative publicity that would be generated with "Key using public money to buy a private jet!". The only downside I see is the capacity: max 19, it this enough? I'm imagining the press might have to fly commercial!

There is something impressive about the 757's size though.

There might be a nice 757 available in early 2017 if a certain person is able to upgrade up to Air Force One.nfloorl:

 

[ngatimozart]

There might be a nice 757 available in early 2017 if a certain person is able to upgrade up to Air Force One.nfloorl:

Wouldn't touch it with a 50ft barge pole - might be a security risk

 

[ngatimozart]

I hate to think of the negative publicity that would be generated with "Key using public money to buy a private jet!". The only downside I see is the capacity: max 19, it this enough? I'm imagining the press might have to fly commercial!

There is something impressive about the 757's size though.

The idea of a G5000 or G6000 or similar is not silly however justifying it along with a larger aircraft for a similar mission would be difficult. However if the PC24 were to be acquired, ministers and / or senior govt officials could still jet across the ditch and to the Pacific Islands with relative ease and that would only be one of the types many roles. Yes it's small; 8 pax but if the newsies want to tag along then they fly commercial like everybody else.

 

[John Fedup]

The idea of a G5000 or G6000 or similar is not silly however justifying it along with a larger aircraft for a similar mission would be difficult. However if the PC24 were to be acquired, ministers and / or senior govt officials could still jet across the ditch and to the Pacific Islands with relative ease and that would only be one of the types many roles. Yes it's small; 8 pax but if the newsies want to tag along then they fly commercial like everybody else.

Given the current market for business jets, I would imagine a pretty good deal could be negotiated for a G5000/G6000.
Bombardier to pause production of global luxury jets in 2017 - Article - BNN

 

[chis73]

And we're off and racing! Airbus is out of the blocks sharply...:

The NZ Branch of the Royal Aeronautical Society is holding a one-day seminar on "French Aerospace for New Zealand" in Wellington on 16th September. Includes a session on defence, where the A400M & C295 will be pitched (the NH90 is also covered). Several speakers from the NZ MOD as well.

http://www.raes.org.nz/files/docs/nz%20ipm%20raes_symposium%202016_a3_military.pdf

 

[Novascotiaboy]

So Airbus sees an opportunity to showcase the C295W. Interesting that they see a possible place for the twin within the context of the RFI.

At the prices that are available for aircraft only; A400 at NZ$230 million, C295W at NZ $50 million, I could see a mix of four A400 and four C295W for a base cost of NZ$1.12 billion plus training, spares and support. Throw in an A320 NEO for a total of nine aircraft at an approximate total of NZ $1.2 billion. Have the A320 supported by Air NZ to reduce cost of ownership that way it's not really an orphan.

This isn't my personal choice but since they are the first out of the gate I think it has some appeal overall. The ability to deliver the C295W first would allow time to hopefully sort out problems and delivery slots for the A400. With SAFEAIR as an Airbus subsidiary it definitely has the in country support to look after the fleet into the future.

I think that would be their only option as availability of the A400 on the production line will be too late for tactical delivery timelines. If the government is willing and the Hercules has the legs to soldier on until 2025 then this may work out.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Airbus need to be racing, if they want to meet our deadline, i can only see it happening if we order them straight away, regardless of issues they are having, and our govt gives our Hercs a few more yrs flight time while we wait. A bit of a gamble either way. Mind you, as pointed out here, KC390 , might not be able to meet the deadline either.

 

[Rob c]

Airbus need to be racing, if they want to meet our deadline, i can only see it happening if we order them straight away, regardless of issues they are having, and our govt gives our Hercs a few more yrs flight time while we wait. A bit of a gamble either way. Mind you, as pointed out here, KC390 , might not be able to meet the deadline either.

I think you will find that a lot of unofficial behind the scenes would already gone ahead and that any favoured possible aircraft types types delivery dates would already be known before the RFI was released. The public documents such as the RFI are the formal official start of the program. Mind you the cabinet, would have been sounded out nothing is fixed in concrete yet. The formal process has to run its course.

 

[Rob c]

A timely reminder of the level the NZ P3s where upgraded too. This would indicate to me that the RNZAF would not be interested in some of the simpler ASW platforms on the international market. However it also shows that given internal room and enough electrical power that some of the offerings could easily be upgraded to meet our requirements. As I have only seen the basic RFI I would imagine that what is in the fine print would be telling, as this should tell us to what level the various functions capabilities would be considered desirable

 

[40 deg south]

And we're off and racing! Airbus is out of the blocks sharply...:

The NZ Branch of the Royal Aeronautical Society is holding a one-day seminar on "French Aerospace for New Zealand" in Wellington on 16th September. Includes a session on defence, where the A400M & C295 will be pitched (the NH90 is also covered). Several speakers from the NZ MOD as well.

http://www.raes.org.nz/files/docs/nz%20ipm%20raes_symposium%202016_a3_military.pdf

Interesting that the 'Frenchness' of the product is being played up, when both the C295 and A400 are assembled in Spain. My guess is that the French High Commission will underwrite the event from trade promotion funds, and wouldn't be nearly as generous for pan-European aircraft promotion.

 

[40 deg south]

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...tarts-airlift-maritime-patrol-renewal-429077/

FlightGlobal has an article on NZ's aircraft replacement projects. Good summary, but no new information.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I see Airbus was doing an aggressive ad campaign in our newspapers since last yr and we had representitive ministers and airforce giving them the once over then, no word if they have done so with the C2, or KC390 yet?

Given that C130J option was turned down when Australia offered a joint purchase, years ago,and its too similar for lift requirements now, i cant see the logic in renewed interest in it .

Does C295W model have the range improvement to be a successor to Hercules though? even with a mix of A400m thrown in. I would be concerned about a further cut in numbers, like they have with NH90/Huey replacement,replacing quantity with quality, time will tell i suppose, must be patient eh?