One of the cabinet papers released in the C-17 document dump stated flatly that NZ would not consider a Eastern European airlifter because of parts/support issues. I think it was one of the final two papers, if anyone has the patience to look it up.
The difficulty is ensuring you are comparing like with like.
One thing to be aware of is that most of the mechanical spares for the C130J are common to the C130H the exceptions being the engines and props, The electronics are all new. The USAF ordered 43 C130j's at the end of 2015 for US$5.3b, This puts the price at US$123m each,(Inflation?) but this was for a mixture of role types. There was said to be a 10% saving due to the size of the order.
It is not hard to fit Infrared or active air to air missiles to just about any aircraft with pylons, Just fit the necessary launching wiring and aim in the general direction and the missile does the rest, as the pom did with the Nimrod in the 1980's. However to use semi-active missiles or gain more accuracy from your active or infrared missiles you do need the correct radar. Even our K2 orions have an air capable radar (but i don't think any missile wiring) so I don't think it would be a big step for any competitors to achieve a modest air to air capability
The P3K2 wing pylons were not wired during the last rewinging.
If it is true that the P-8 will carry the AIM-120 then I assume it must be linked to the aircraft radar as the max range of the missile is 160km which is well outside the range of its internal guidance. I have struggled to find much online information regarding the ability of the P-8's radar to detect and target aircraft, except that the ground search radar can detect low flying cruse missiles.
Norway and Canada are potential P-8 customers. Canada certainly won't be ordering before 2020 so a deadline at the end 2017 seems unlikely unless Boeing has written Canada off. Turkey has also expressed (before the coup attempt).
Why the short lifespan? P8 has not even proven itself yet and they are already "closing" the line. 5 minute wonder?
Yeah not sure... can't vouch for the validity of the information / source but here's hoping it isn't another C17 fiasco for us! The P8 is (AIUI) a non-standard combo of wing type & fuselage type - maybe it's something to do with that & what plant produces each!?!
AT-6B Light Attack Aircraft / Trainer - Airforce Technology
They'll close the line if nobody's buying it. What else should they do? Lay out good money to keep an idle line sitting around on the off-chance that someone will place a big enough order to make it worthwhile starting it up again?
With increasing cost of new aircraft and thus smaller orders, lines will be shut down much earlier than in past. No company will keep line open in case of future orders. Thay may possibly make a few extra at end of line for future orders, but don't count on it as that is expensive if they are not sold quickly.
That is a very good point. The price of the P-8 is something that I had not taken into consideration when I wrote my last post.
The point about radar is very good as when the ACF was disbanded the primary radar that was used by them was shut down and has since been dismantled. the only radar in NZ now is secondary radar, (Apart from weather radar) which relies on the aircraft's transponder to know were the aircraft is, If an aircraft has no transponder or it is turned off then air traffic control have no idea were it is of if an aircraft is even about at all.
It is highly unlikely that there will be an early order for a P3 replacement as the government has only just signed a contract to upgrade the ASW capability on the P3's It is unlikely they would have done this should they be considering an early order. I would assume that there would have been significant behind the scenes communication already in regard to availability with all possible manufacturers of replacements even before the formal RFI was issued.
You make a great point about using Wolverines in the Pacific. There is also the advantage of having a less 'threatening' aircraft that an RAAF F-35.
I would really want to avoid any opposed landing anywhere in Fiji if it ever came to that. Casualties for the invading force would be very high to say the least. The situation would have to be pretty rotten for NZ to consider the possibility of undertaking an opposed armed incursion into Fijian territory.