War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

Damascus suburb hit by ‘Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah leader’
https://www.rt.com/news/326564-damascus-explosion-jaramana-reports/

Do the israelis ever miss their targets? 3

Anyway, it will be interesting to learn about the technicalities of this strike. Was it just a cruise missile strike? Air-launched or not? How far away is this point from the S400 battery?

And how far was it from the Khibiny EW system? If it was an Israeli strike it raises serious questions along these lines.

Just one word of caution and that is that there is some confusion whether this was the work of the Israelis; judging by the nature of the target it certainly seems that way.

Does this send a message to the Russians that the field is still very much open?

Another source confirming Israeli involvement.

http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.692786

 

[colay1]

I'll speculate that Israel and Russia have an understanding ie. they won't target each other but aside from that it's business as usual for the Israelis.

 

[Feanor]

Damascus suburb hit by ‘Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah leader’
https://www.rt.com/news/326564-damascus-explosion-jaramana-reports/

Do the israelis ever miss their targets? 3

Anyway, it will be interesting to learn about the technicalities of this strike. Was it just a cruise missile strike? Air-launched or not? How far away is this point from the S400 battery?

It's pretty much on the other side of the country. Granted Syria is small and the S-400 has long range, so technically it's "in range". But only for the heavy long range missile, the one that's not very good against tactical aircraft.

And how far was it from the Khibiny EW system? If it was an Israeli strike it raises serious questions along these lines.

You seem to be a little confused. Khibiny are EW pods that go on the wing tips of fighter jets. They're most prominently displayed on the Su-34 wing tips. Are you thinking of Krasuha? That's the ground-based EW system that might have been relevant here.

Just one word of caution and that is that there is some confusion whether this was the work of the Israelis; judging by the nature of the target it certainly seems that way.

Does this send a message to the Russians that the field is still very much open?

Another source confirming Israeli involvement.

Hezbollah: Samir Kuntar Killed in Israeli Airstrike on Damascus - Middle East News - Haaretz - Israeli News Source Haaretz.com

This sends no message to Russia. Russia has a very special relationship with Israel. Chances are Russia let this happen, and it's even possible (though I'd be surprised) that they knew in advance. Israel has struck Syrian targets recently too, and again Russia was silent. Remember how much noise Russia made when allegedly a US airstrike hit an SAA camp by mistake? And they're dead silent on Israeli strikes.

And don't forget, Israeli UAVs (Searcher Mk2) have been used by Russia over Ukraine (two were even shot down) yet Israel continues deliveries of the type to Russia, quietly and without media hype of course. There's a lot between those two countries that we don't see.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Interesting look at Il-76 flight routes over the Caspian, flights to Syria pass through Azeri airspace, while flights to Armenia carefully skirt around it.

Ð’ Ðрмению и Сирию пути разные - Ðвиаголоволомки

A ceremony for Syrian soldiers receiving Russian medals, likely for the rescue of the downed pilot.

СирийÑкие Ñолдаты награждены выÑокими гоÑударÑтвенными наградами РоÑÑийÑкой Федерации - mikael655

A long OSINT look at Turkish presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. It appears that there is indeed some substance to the Iraqi claims that the Turks are there for more then just the anti-ISIS training mission. Their presence is certainly much larger then the ~150 instructors suggested earlier. And they did bring MBTs, namely M-60s.

https://citeam.org/turkish-bases-in-northern-iraq/

Some photos from Iraq, including Kurdistan, where there has been some really bloody fighting between ISIS and the Peshmerga lately. Meanwhile a US airstrike accidentally hit an Iraqi position, and Obama has told Turkey to withdraw from Iraq.

Будни иракÑкой войны - Colonel Cassad

More info that Russia is talking to Cyprus about using facilities there, and possibly setting up a base.

Análisis Militares: Rusia negocia el uso de bases en Chipre

Putin claims that Russia has other things up their sleeve, that they could use in Syria. What exactly he's alluding to is unclear. Meanwhile a high ranking Russian officer disclosed that their cruise missile strikes against Syrian targets revealed certain problems with the air-launched missiles. Likely it's the Kh-101 that's having issues, as it's a brand new missile. Note, the earlier Kalibr-NK launch from the Caspian, with 4 missiles falling in Iran, is a separate issue. This piece of news is clearly about air-launched missiles.

" Мы видим, как Ñффективно работают (в Сирии) наши летчики,… - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€Ñшин
ОказалоÑÑŒ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Some interesting material on environmental damage from the war in Syria.

https://www.bellingcat.com/resource...lated-environmental-damage-a-beginners-guide/

 

[gazzzwp]

It's pretty much on the other side of the country. Granted Syria is small and the S-400 has long range, so technically it's "in range". But only for the heavy long range missile, the one that's not very good against tactical aircraft.



You seem to be a little confused. Khibiny are EW pods that go on the wing tips of fighter jets. They're most prominently displayed on the Su-34 wing tips. Are you thinking of Krasuha? That's the ground-based EW system that might have been relevant here.



This sends no message to Russia. Russia has a very special relationship with Israel. Chances are Russia let this happen, and it's even possible (though I'd be surprised) that they knew in advance. Israel has struck Syrian targets recently too, and again Russia was silent. Remember how much noise Russia made when allegedly a US airstrike hit an SAA camp by mistake? And they're dead silent on Israeli strikes.

And don't forget, Israeli UAVs (Searcher Mk2) have been used by Russia over Ukraine (two were even shot down) yet Israel continues deliveries of the type to Russia, quietly and without media hype of course. There's a lot between those two countries that we don't see.

Some good points there Feanor. I did mean the Krasuha system. Interesting though how Russia seem to have an understanding with the Israelis. Much less media hype is made of this whereas the US connection is much more well known. Not withstanding recent tensions over the peace process, Obama still seems to be advocating total support for their middle east partners.

Would the EW system have been temporarily disabled during the strike or were the Israeli jets operating outside of it's perimeter do you think?

Israel seem to have feet in both camps it seems. I wonder how the US feel about the Israelis selling drone technology to the Russians? It all goes to show how international relations are becoming more complex these days.

 

[gazzzwp]

Putin claims that Russia has other things up their sleeve, that they could use in Syria. What exactly he's alluding to is unclear. Meanwhile a high ranking Russian officer disclosed that their cruise missile strikes against Syrian targets revealed certain problems with the air-launched missiles. Likely it's the Kh-101 that's having issues, as it's a brand new missile. Note, the earlier Kalibr-NK launch from the Caspian, with 4 missiles falling in Iran, is a separate issue. This piece of news is clearly about air-launched missiles.

My first thoughts were nuclear weapons. Putin has already mooted this in the way of dismissal, however the very fact that he even mentioned it could be a clue.

I can only see down sides to such a move, and of course I sincerely hope that this option is off the table.

 

[Toblerone]

The western media would go absolutely crazy at any use of nuclear weapons and would permanently paint Russia as the bad guy for decades to come. I think Putin knows this and would never do this. But I do think he's willing for *discussions* like these to take place though, fears and whispers of nuclear attacks... another boost for him in the coming talks.

 

[SolarWind]

Israel seem to have feet in both camps it seems. I wonder how the US feel about the Israelis selling drone technology to the Russians? It all goes to show how international relations are becoming more complex these days.

Israel doesn't make any defense technology sales that the US objects to.

 

[SolarWind]

My first thoughts were nuclear weapons. Putin has already mooted this in the way of dismissal, however the very fact that he even mentioned it could be a clue.

I can only see down sides to such a move, and of course I sincerely hope that this option is off the table.

There is no need for nuclear weapons in dealing with terrorists, ISIS included. Given political will, terrorists can be dealt with conventional forces. Other weapon systems Russia has not yet used in Syria but might want to show off could be the Kuznetsov Aircraft Carrier with Su-33/Mig-29K or the Severodvinsk Nuclear Attack Sub with the new cruise missiles.

When Putin mentioned nukes, he didn't mean terrorists in general or ISIS in particular. That was more of a message to state actors. At least that's the way I understood his russian.

 

[PO2GRV]

Russian Warplanes Allegedly Kill Scores In Syrian City

Idlib hit in Russian airstrike, "scores" dead and more wounded with rumors that rebel ceasefire is over

Details pending

 

[ngatimozart]

Israel doesn't make any defense technology sales that the US objects to.

If that was the case, Israel wouldn't be selling UAVs to the Russians would they? Or other hi tech systems to nations that may be less than friendly to the USA. The USA certainly do not set Israeli policy.

 

[Feanor]

Israel doesn't make any defense technology sales that the US objects to.

If that was the case, Israel wouldn't be selling UAVs to the Russians would they? Or other hi tech systems to nations that may be less than friendly to the USA. The USA certainly do not set Israeli policy.

For Israel, policy is often a question of survival. So they have to play ball even if they'd rather not. Let's not forget that Syria was denied both the Iskander and S-300 missile system, by Israeli request. I'd say they're getting their money's worth from Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Syrian T-90s enter combat south-west of Aleppo. A reminder, the south-western offensive near Aleppo has been the focus of much foreign aid, with the deployment of Iranian troops, advisers, Hezbollah fighters, and now some of the newest equipment.

Т-90 пошли в бой под Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин

Meanwhile the situation on the front is mostly stable. Qarassi has fallen, as the threat of closing the pocket has forced the an-Nusra fighters defending it to withdraw. After Qarassi, they took a couple of other villages, and are not approaching the Damascus-Aleppo highway, but still don't seem to be able to take it. They haven't tried again from the al-Eis side.

ISIS reinforcements have stopped the offensive east-ward out of Kuweiris. And some minor gains have been made in Latakia province where quite a few of the troops have received Russian body armor, and tactical gear, as well as overwhelming air support (payback for the downed bomber). They're far from closing the border but they're definitely making progress. Elsewhere, the situation has basically been static. Even the 3-way fight around the Azaz corridor has halted so far, leaving the Turkish lifeline open.

On a separate note, the Kurds in Hasake province have gained more ground, but their offensive also shows signs of slowing.

Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии к 21.12.2015 - Colonel Cassad

The Turks have begun a heavy-handed crackdown on the RPK in Silopi and Cizre. The numbers of refugees from this fighting is growing.

ОжеÑточенные боевые дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ñƒ курдами и турецкой армией - bmpd

The WSJ published information on the death of 9 Russian contract soldiers, allegedly from a secret group that took part in the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin unsurprisingly denies this.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êðåìëå íåò èíôîðìàöèè î ãèáåëè äåâÿòè ðîññèéñêèõ êîíòðàêòíèêîâ â Ñèðèè, çàÿâèë Ïåñêîâ

Russia is continuing to beef up military presence in Armenia. An entire squadron of Hind gunships has been relocated there.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà àâèàáàçó ÐÔ â Àðìåíèè ïðèáûëà âòîðàÿ ïàðòèÿ óäàðíûõ âåðòîëåòîâ

A series of flights from Kaliningrad to Syria, military transport and passenger planes. They do a stopover in Moscow region.

КалининградÑкий регион подключ»ÑÑ Ðº Сирии - Ðвиаголоволомки

EDIT: Results from the Su-24 black box. 13/16 of the microchips are destroyed, the other 3 damaged. One might be recoverable, but getting the data off of it will require some work. So no answers, at least not yet.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1868297.html

 

[Toblerone]

I don't understand how pockets of rebels can survive for so long. How are they getting supplies and ammo?

Like Homs, for example.

 

[GermanHerman]

Well for one it is nearly impossible to seal up an urban area of that size without an ridiculous amount of personell and effort. I can't see the Syrian Gov. beeing able to provide the needed strength.

Think of the US / Mexican border and the amount of drugs and weapons that get smuggled through despite all the controls and the effort from the most powerfull country in the world to seal off its border to the south.

Total control is something a government can only excercise in a very limited space and which takes a lot of effort and in the end the collaboration of the people. Remember the uprising in the Ghetto of Warsaw during ww2, that was a basicly hermetically sealed area in a city under total control of the german forces and still people were able to smuggle in small arms and form a resistance.

Assad would have to control every street in and out of these pockets and to not stop there would have to control every car that goes in and out, every person going in and out and that gets more and more difficult the bigger the area.

 

[rjtjrt]

I don't understand how pockets of rebels can survive for so long. How are they getting supplies and ammo?

Like Homs, for example.

Also, given the amount of ammunition being expended, where is it all being supplied from, and by whom?

 

[Feanor]

Also, given the amount of ammunition being expended, where is it all being supplied from, and by whom?

It's been discussed at length in this thread. The major supplies include Turkey, the gulf states, and even some western countries.

 

[John Fedup]

It's been discussed at length in this thread. The major supplies include Turkey, the gulf states, and even some western countries.

The amount of material abandoned by the fleeing Iraqi army should be included as Western supplied arms to ISIL.

 

[Ranger25]

The amount of material abandoned by the fleeing Iraqi army should be included as Western supplied arms to ISIL.

While I'll agree the material is generally US, I would certainly not agree with the implication that the West has/is supplying Deash.

FEANOR is correct, Turkey and several GCC nations are the prime suppliers. For the GCC it provides them a front against Iranian Influence in the region.

 

[Feanor]

The amount of material abandoned by the fleeing Iraqi army should be included as Western supplied arms to ISIL.

I'm afraid either you or I misunderstand. He's talking about the rebel pockets in eastern Syria. He's wondering how they're supplied. They certainly aren't supplied from Iraqi army stockpiles, or Syrian for that matter since they're not gaining ground of capturing bases.