Ukranian Crisis

Feanor · May 24, 2014

nkvd said:
The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics have merged in one state.The Donetsk People’s Republic’s twitter reports that the two republics have signed their merger in one state, Novorossiya.

One report claims rebels control as much as 1/3 of the 2 regions but i personally think the rebels only control where they stand for the time being anyway

The meaning of control gets interesting when you watch the video of flags being swapped in the various towns and villages. Sometimes a piece of cloth is the extent of the control.

dprijadi · May 24, 2014

BDRebel said:
Personally, I see the crisis unfolding in the Ukraine very similarly to that in Syria with the single difference that the Ukrainian government didn't actually butcher any citizens like Assad did.

One thing I noticed was that the Crimean militia and rebels were almost immediately organised (uniforms, command structure, weapons, communication systems) which only raises questions regarding how long was this planned for and whether any training was given to these militant prior to the annexation.
.

i personally think the ukrainian army have no will to fight and slaughter innocent unarmed civilians, maybe they got the order from kiev to push in the rebel regions no matter what the civilian casualties but they seem very reluctant to do that , indicated by the kiev's move in recruting rightsectors as their muscle..

as for russia involving themselves with the rebel, i assume they already did but in very covert and very low key way. The whole situation feels like very great restraint is on the rebel side to avoid armed conflict with Ukrainian military.. The ones that successfully disarm the army are the unarmed civilians..

i think every profesional army all around the world would loath shooting unarmed civilians , and that seems the strategy here at work.. the more unarmed the civilians, the more their value in deterring real military attacks on them..

Goknub · May 25, 2014

I'm calling BS on your whole "shooting unarmed civilians" thing.

These unarmed civilians seem to be doing a good job of killing soldiers and burning IFVs.

The Ukrainian military chose not to act when the "little green men" turned up in Crimea and they lost that province. If they do the same here the Peoples Republic or whatever they are calling themselves now will likely split away and end up as Russian protectorates if not fully part of Russia. Ala Georgia's South Ossetia.

Given the quantity of BM21s and SPGs that have been seen I'd say they are doing a good job keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.

Most Western soldiers would have no problem fighting to keep their country from being torn in half.

nkvd · May 25, 2014

Goknub said:
I'm calling BS on your whole "shooting unarmed civilians" thing.
Most Western soldiers would have no problem fighting to keep their country from being torn in half.

those exalted "western soldiers" have not been grossly mismanaged ,corrupted and neglected and no one is immune when exposed to these things.If you want the Ukraine soldiers to shoot through the civilians to get to the rebels as you seem to be suggesting that`s the easiest way to recruit for the rebels ie another Syria and Russia would help

Feanor · May 25, 2014

Goknub said:
I'm calling BS on your whole "shooting unarmed civilians" thing.

These unarmed civilians seem to be doing a good job of killing soldiers and burning IFVs.

Let's not get the two situations mixed up. There have been some fairly obvious shootings of civilians, that I documented here. There has also been fighting against well armed insurgents.

The Ukrainian military chose not to act when the "little green men" turned up in Crimea and they lost that province. If they do the same here the Peoples Republic or whatever they are calling themselves now will likely split away and end up as Russian protectorates if not fully part of Russia. Ala Georgia's South Ossetia.

This is probably a close analogy. Keep in mind however, the level of control Russia has over the process is questionable.

Given the quantity of BM21s and SPGs that have been seen I'd say they are doing a good job keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.

So far yes. They've distinctly tried to limit civilian casualties by not using heavy weapons. Note that they haven't used actual tanks, or fixed-wing aviation. There's a lot of reasons for this, not just that they're such kind people, but they have definitely been careful.

Feanor · May 25, 2014

umair · May 25, 2014

From what I've read over the last few weeks, the east is not dominantly pro independence or pro union with Russia. What they do want is more autonomy but how can the central authorities in Kiev give the people that when they can't safely elect their representatives to negotiate for such authority in the legislature? Also how do you put the genie back in the bottle now?

Feanor · May 26, 2014

umair said:
From what I've read over the last few weeks, the east is not dominantly pro independence or pro union with Russia. What they do want is more autonomy but how can the central authorities in Kiev give the people that when they can't safely elect their representatives to negotiate for such authority in the legislature? Also how do you put the genie back in the bottle now?

I don't know. Maybe it's hindsight but it seems to me that the Kiev government threw away chance after chance to deal with this situation. They didn't. Now it's a bad situation getting worse.

If the rebels do better, as far as organizing and winning battles goes, there may be an actual rebel government and leadership with which to negotiate. But right now there isn't even anyone to deal with.

dprijadi · May 26, 2014

Feanor said:
I don't know. Maybe it's hindsight but it seems to me that the Kiev government threw away chance after chance to deal with this situation. They didn't. Now it's a bad situation getting worse.

If the rebels do better, as far as organizing and winning battles goes, there may be an actual rebel government and leadership with which to negotiate. But right now there isn't even anyone to deal with.

Feanor, again , appreciate your updates... it seems there's lack of news in these last few days i hope nothing bad happened in east ukraine..

The Chechen leader , i read that he give not-so-subtle ultimatium to kiev regarding the treatement of 2 reporters and no matter how kiev try to downplay it , i think the chechen leader's contribution is way more than just flying there with his personal jet and picking up 2 reporters. There seem to be more than seen here..

the crowd that met with the soldiers suprised me a bit, they are so many.. the picture of that old lady hugging the soldier is priceless.. i still cant believe how we can get endless maidan photo back then, but hardly any photo on the eastern ukraine events in the mass media (western)..

the involvement of some ex US govt employee in the polling (like madeline albright), i find that abhorrent.. did US state dept have to be so crass to show that they got horse in this polling ?

nkvd · May 26, 2014

Feanor said:
Update.
Rebel btln Vostok returns do Donetsk, and is greeted as heroes, despite the presence of foreigners in the unit, and the shooting into the air.
]

A truck full of Chechens armed to the teeth (confirmed by RT). A few weeks back I asked how long before we see these guys show up in the conflict zone now we have the answer.Russian nationalists,war vets,adrenaline junkies and North Caucasians might just turn this conflict into a bloody rebellion by foreigners.Things could get ugly slowly but surely gents

Feanor · May 26, 2014

nkvd said:
A truck full of Chechens armed to the teeth (confirmed by RT). A few weeks back I asked how long before we see these guys show up in the conflict zone now we have the answer.Russian nationalists,war vets,adrenaline junkies and North Caucasians might just turn this conflict into a bloody rebellion by foreigners.Things could get ugly slowly but surely gents

Given the steady stream of fighters crossing into Ukraine lately it really isn't the surprising. I wouldn't take RT's word for it, and I'm not certain they're all necessarily Chechens, but there have been rumors of fighters from the North Caucus here for a while. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if they're Chechens, Dags, Ossetians, or Ingushes.

Feanor · May 26, 2014

Update.

Rebels had seized the Donetsk airport. Government troops have landed assault elements using helicopters in the Donetsk airport, and are storming the airport. Note the rebel running with a MANPADS at the very end of the first video in the second link.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àêòèâíàÿ ôàçà îïåðàöèè íà Óêðàèíå: âîåííûå "çà÷èùàþò" çäàíèå äîíåöêîãî àýðîïîðòà, îòâîåâàííîå ó ñåïàðàòèñòîâ ñ ïîìîùüþ âåðòîëåòîâ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð‘Ð¾Ð¸ Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ

Muslim fighters in rebel btln Vostok.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐœÑƒÑÑƒÐ»ÑŒÐ¼Ð°Ð½ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑÐ»ÐµÐ´

More photos of btln Vostok.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1600277.html

According to local claims from Kramatorsk the rebels there have 3 IMRs (engineer vehicles on T-72 chassis). At least one of them can move.

jerry24_it:

A confrontation between unarmed locals and a military unit near Artemovsk.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZYOwUFVf4c#t=367"]ÐÑ€Ñ‚ÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð²ÑÐº. Ð›ÑŽÐ´Ð¸ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð½ÑÑŽÑ‚ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½ÑÐºÐ¸Ñ… Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ‹Ñ… - YouTube[/nomedia]

A rebel rally in Artemovsk. The subject was rapid response units to deal with crime, and restoring the functioning of city organs which were basically not working. Not a very large rally, even for the small town that Artemovsk is.

jerry24_it:

Rebels near Lisichansk have captured two Kamaz trucks, one UAZ, and a field kitchen from a Ukrainian MChS unit. They had earlier seized BRDMs from the MChS as well. In the video I saw 3 Kamaz trucks, one GAZ-66, one UAZ jeep, and two BRDM-2s.

ÐžÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ñ‹ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Ð›Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ‡Ð°Ð½ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¼ Ð·Ð°Ñ…Ð²Ð°Ñ‚Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÑƒ ÐœÐ§Ð¡ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹
Ð‘Ð»Ð¾Ð³ ÐÐ»ÐµÐºÑÐ°Ð½Ð´Ñ€Ð° Ð¨Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ½Ð° - 23.05 Ð›Ð¸ÑÐ¸Ñ‡Ð°Ð½ÑÐº

Battle damage in Semenovka. It's been under a steady stream of heavy weapons fire from government troops.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/105272.html
Ð¡Ð’ÐžÐ‘ÐžÐ”Ð Ð˜ Ð—ÐÐÐÐ˜Ð• - ÐÑ‚Ð°ÐºÐ° Ð½Ð° Ð¡ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð¾Ð²ÐºÑƒ-2

Outright incompetence of the Ukrainian government has been a steady theme in this conflict. Here's some more.

Apparently the rebels have been attacking government troops using the AK-100. According to Ukrainian government claims (stated by vice-prime minister Yarema). Those rebels make Superman look like wimp by comparison... I mean carrying 100mm naval cannons into battle? Wow.

And of course continuing claims about uniquely Russian weapons in the conflict zone. They claim the AK-105 and SVD-S have been sighted in the hands of btln Vostok. Mokrushin does a good job of looking at the details of the weapons seen, and clearly and easily identifying them as Tigr hunting rifles (based on the SVD, probably from the looted arms store in Donetsk) and AK-74 rifles of 1980s vintage.

Personal comment: now please keep in mind there is no doubt, no question, that weapons are crossing from Ukraine into Russia in significant numbers. I can't begin to estimate those numbers. The point of posting this is to illustrate the stupidity and unprofessionalism of the people making these claims.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð°Ð±ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð¿ÑƒÑÑÐ½Ð¾Ð²Ð° Ð² Ð±Ð¾ÑŽ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐŸÑ€Ð¾ ÑÑ‚Ñ€Ð°ÑˆÐ½Ð¾Ðµ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑÐ¸Ð¹ÑÐºÐ¾Ðµ Ð¾Ñ€ÑƒÐ¶Ð¸Ðµ

Poroshenko is the new president of Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÖÈÊ Óêðàèíû íàçâàë íîâûì ïðåçèäåíòîì ñòðàíû Ïåòðà Ïîðîøåíêî

The Donetsk and Lugansk republics have formally united into an entity called Novorossiya.

Colonel Cassad -

Feanor · May 27, 2014

Update.

Fighting over the airport in Donetsk seems to be continuing. At this point it appears the rebels have retaken the airport, but government troops are still nearby. There are persistent claims of another downed government helo, but no photo or video to substantiate. Government airstrikes did quite some damage to the rebels, in some cases claims of up to 150 dead. But verification will be difficult. A rebel truck was destroyed, how is unclear.

There are sightings of fixed wing aircraft flying around, including MiG-29s.

Ð§Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð½Ñ‹Ð¹ Ñ€ÑƒÑÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð¶ÑƒÑ€Ð½Ð°Ð» - Ð‘Ð¾Ð¸ Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ
u_96:
Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½ÑÐºÐ¸Ðµ ÑÐ¸Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð¸ÐºÐ¸ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÑÑŽÑ‚ ÑƒÐ´Ð°Ñ€Ð½ÑƒÑŽ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ñ†Ð¸ÑŽ Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ
Ð‘Ð°Ñ‚Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ¾Ð½ Ð’Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ðº Ð·Ð°Ñ…Ð²Ð°Ñ‚Ð¸Ð» Ð°ÑÑ€Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ñ€Ñ‚ Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ðž Ð¿Ð¾Ñ‚ÐµÑ€ÑÑ… Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå ñèëîâèêè îáíàðîäîâàëè íåïîäòâåðæäåííûå äàííûå î ñîòíå óáèòûõ ìÿòåæíèêîâ âî âðåìÿ ñïåöîïåðàöèè â àýðîïîðòó Äîíåöêà
Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½ÑÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ð´ÐµÑÐ°Ð½Ñ‚ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð¸Ð·Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð¸Ñ‚ Â«Ð·Ð°Ñ‡Ð¸ÑÑ‚ÐºÑƒÂ» Ð´Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ Ð°ÑÑ€Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ñ€Ñ‚Ð°

Photo and video of the fighting.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1603521.html

Battle damage in Slavyansk. Also two rebel officers were executed by Strelkov's orders, for marauding and kidnapping.

u_96: Oops...

Ukrainian media claims rebels shot up civilians at random, other sources claim it was the National Guard.

Vici! -

In an interview Strelkov claims that the Italian journalist died from government artillery fire, because the government troops fire indiscriminately at everything that moved in that particular location. This is not the first claim that government troops have done something along those lines.

u_96:

The Russian military is forming a Coastal Defense Brigade (Motor-Rifle Bde under Naval command) in Crimea. It will be the 128th.

Ð”Ð¾Ð±Ñ€Ð¾ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¶Ð°Ð»Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ‚ÑŒ Ð² Ð¶ÑƒÑ€Ð½Ð°Ð» Ð*Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ð²ÑÐºÐ¾Ð³Ð¾ ÐžÑ€Ð»Ð° - Ð˜Ñ‚Ð°Ðº Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¸Ð³Ð°Ð´Ð° Ð±ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ Ð¾Ð±Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð½Ñ‹ Ð§Ñ„ Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ¸Ñ‚ Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑ€ 128

Feanor · May 27, 2014

Updates.

Donetsk militia took 35-100 casualties, including two incidents with the destruction of Kamaz trucks carrying wounded.

Warning the photos and video are not for the weak nerves or weak stomach.

bmpd -
http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_05/thumb_files/620_400_1401177337-8172.jpeg
http://cs616524.vk.me/v616524802/db9e/t6TzgarcIKc.jpg
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð£Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡Ð½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ Ð¿Ð¾ ÐšÐÐœÐÐ—Ñƒ Ð² Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐµ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð”Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¸Ðµ ÐšÐÐœÐÐ—Ñ‹

A nice discussion of the honesty of personal video and social media, vs official press. The angle is anti-Ukrainian but the points are valid. The video at the end is interesting, of an old man and his shotgun, on the rebel side.

Ð‘Ð»Ð¾Ð³ ÐÐ»ÐµÐºÑÐ°Ð½Ð´Ñ€Ð° Ð¨Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ½Ð° - Ð¡Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÑ€ Ð¡Ð°ÑˆÐºÐ°

Rebels have control over the suburbs of Donetsk, but not entirely. The city is more or less surrounded by government troops.

bobik_57 -

Su-27 over Donetsk.

u_96:

It's not clear who controls the airport. There was information of the rebels retaking the airport, however when a journalist team attempted to approach the airport they were fired on. A group of rebel militia then returned fire towards the airport, covering the journalists escape.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêå îáúÿâëåíî øàòêîå ïåðåìèðèå: â ðàéîíå àýðîïîðòà ðàáîòàþò ñíàéïåðû, âñå âûåçäû èç ãîðîäà êîíòðîëèðóþòñÿ âîåííûìè

More video of airstrikes in Donetsk, and rebel movements. Date and time is unclear. My guess is, yesterdays' fighting.

u_96:

Photos from the fighting.

tutuskania:

Government artillery positions on Karachun heights, overlooking Slavyansk.

u_96:

Artillery fire towards Slavyansk is continuing.

u_96:
jerry24_it:

Top video rebels shooting up government checkpoint, bottom video is artillery damage, all in and near Slavyansk.

jerry24_it:

Ukrainian government claims they have destroyed a rebel camp in Lugansk with an airstrike.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êèåâ çàÿâèë î íîâîì àâèàóäàðå ïî ïîâñòàíöàì è óíè÷òîæåíèè èõ "ëàãåðÿ" íà Ëóãàíùèíå

Confirmation that Chechens are in the conflict zone.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1308606.html

Feanor · May 27, 2014

Military analysis.

This is my input, not facts, and it's a look at the military situation in the east.

From the government side. They initially sought to try their teeth on Slavyansk as a major city in rebel hands. However they've been beating their head against a wall in Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk for close to 2 months now. The results are a quantity of civilian deaths, some rebel deaths (but outweighed by the reinforcements they've been getting) and an escalation of the violence.

Government troops have not managed to set up even a blockade of the city, with rebel groups and in some cases even rebel vehicle convoys leaving and entering the city with little interference. Government troops have been hit in nasty ways, in columns and on checkpoints. Despite this they have not learned their lessons. Security is still lax, soldiers are still not wearing kevlars or body armor. Even the checkpoints are set up in the most lackadaisical manner possible.

Finally by concentrating ~15 000 troops around Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, government troops have sacrificed control over the rest of Donbass and Lugansk region. They've lost control of the border, and other major population points. Convoys of trucks and cars with armed volunteers are coming in from Russia, and the only thing Kiev can do is write angry letters to Moscow. This is a direct result of them concentrating all available assets in such a small area.

From the rebel side. They've performed extremely well in and around Slavyansk. The rebel leadership there seems to be the most organized and professional. If we were to look for Russian advisers or agents that would be the place to look. Strelkov himself has plenty of combat experience. That having been said, volunteers are not coming in the numbers they need, and their overall supplies of weapons are quite limited. They seem to have more or less enough small arms in Slavyansk but not heavy weapons. In Kramatorsk even small arms are in short supply.

Elsewhere in Donbass and Lugansk the rebels have not made good use of the breathing space they got by the governments misguided efforts. The Donetsk and Lugansk republics exist mostly on paper, and their merger into Novorossiya looks entirely like a fable. They have not organized any real fighting forces, aside from btln Vostok, which seems to be heavily staffed with foreigners.

Militia men crop up here and there during confrontation with government troops, and crowds of locals are quite often willing to confront government troops. But this doesn't amount to much when government troops are in some cases willing to shoot at civilians, or disperse crowds with use of deadly force. The rebels need to organize a real fighting force, not just local militias, or imported foreign formations.

Rimasta · May 27, 2014

BBC News - #BBCtrending: Ukraine's 'babushkas' in stand-off with separatists

Saw this on the BBC. It doesn't seem they are Pro or Anti-Kiev, they just don't want men in ski mask wielding assault weapons near their homes and children. Makes you consider how many in the east are quiet not because of a lack of motivation, but from fear of reprisals against themselves and their families.

Astute · May 27, 2014

Totally agree , people will do what ever as to be done to keep themselves and there families safe and if it means smiling and waving flags they will do it no question , specially as pointed out when groups of balaclava clad gun men come into town armed to the teeth firing rounds off ,

gf0012-aust · May 27, 2014

i can't see putin or lavrov supporting donetsk - more to the point, i think they've opened up a different can of worms wrt chechyans

i suspect that the chechyans have a longer game - and thats about crimean tartars.

putin will have his hands full in 5 years time

Feanor · May 28, 2014

gf0012-aust said:
i can't see putin or lavrov supporting donetsk - more to the point, i think they've opened up a different can of worms wrt chechyans

I think this is the worst of it to be honest. I think that this conflict is rapidly heading down a path from which there is no return, and things will get a whole lot worse. Not only because of the Caucasians but because the total numbers of dead will rise, and people get angry and jaded.

Interestingly Mokrushin posted a similar thought, where he mentioned that the heroic looking part of the struggle between the pro-Russian and the Kiev government is over, and the part coming up will be bloody and dirty.

gf0012-aust · May 28, 2014

Feanor said:
Interestingly Mokrushin posted a similar thought, where he mentioned that the heroic looking part of the struggle between the pro-Russian and the Kiev government is over, and the part coming up will be bloody and dirty.

link? haven't seen it.

IMO the phony war is over. I don't believe that putin or lavrov are interested in donetsk - its a liability to be traded off against getting euro relations back on course

Ukranian Crisis

Super Moderator

New Member

Active Member

Member

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Peace Enforcer

Super Moderator

New Member

Member

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Member

New Member

Grumpy Old Man

Super Moderator

Grumpy Old Man