Ukranian Crisis

[alexkvaskov]

It's also militias blocking the Ukrainian units and confiscating their vehicles.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1268980.html

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Anyway I saw pics on BBC of pro-Russian seperatists on armoured vehicles. Were there defections of Ukrainian armoured units?

Russian media is claiming some soldiers defected, but it's unconfirmed. The Ukrainian government has said that six armoured vehicles were seized by militants - apparently after they were blockaded by local sympathisers.

 

[Feanor]

Photos from Kramatorsk . The first 10 are of government troops at the airport. The rest are of the defection of a Ukrainian airborne unit together with their BMDs. It appears the soldiers may have switched sides, not just handed over their weapons, as was originally reported. Although KP.ru says that the soldiers didn't want to switch sides, they just didn't want to fight against their own people. The locals say that the soldiers were hungry, were not told where they were going or what they were doing. There appear to be at least 1 BMD-2s, 3 BTR-Ds, one 2S9 Nona-S, and one command vehicle on a BMD chassis. After defecting, the column with local militias, traveled to Slavyansk. One of the vehicles broke down in the city, and the locals quickly brought flowers to the BMD.

u_96:
КиевÑкий деÑант вошел в СлавÑнÑк подÂ*роÑÑийÑким флагом // KP.RU
http://i.piccy.info/i9/cb57f4951a08...1397636749/76212/732734/1397636431904_800.jpg

More photos and video.

napoleon_6 -
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - У Ñамообороны поÑвилаÑÑŒ бронетехника
u_96:
http://lb.ua/news/2014/04/16/263313_zahvachennaya_kramatorske.html

More photos from the confrontation at the airport.

Ð’ КраматорÑке началаÑÑŒ война? (ФОТО, ВИДЕО) | 6264.com.ua - ÐовоÑти КраматорÑка
http://www.6264.com.ua/news/516842
http://www.6264.com.ua/news/516803

Overflight of Ukrainian fighter jets, intended probably to intimidate the locals. Locals claim an Su-25 has been sighted too.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð² Ñжигает поÑледнее топливо Ð·Ð°Ð¿ÑƒÐ³Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¶Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ¹ КраматорÑка

Meanwhile 3 other BMDs broke out of an encirclement by locals, and are now being chased by a bus full of "terrorists". Warning shots were fired. Honestly this is a little comical. To get the locals to move out of the way, they threatened them with a grenade.

http://www.unian.net/politics/90858...-ih-presleduyut-voorujennyie-boeviki-smi.html
http://newsru.com/world/16apr2014/proriv.html

Ukrainian sources claim that images of Ukrainian military vehicles flying Russian flags, are a tactical move to get past the local checkpoints. I suspect they're lying. Some Russian sources indicate that these vehicles are the same 6 that surrendered to the anti-government forces.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1269656.html
http://newsru.com/world/16apr2014/kram.html

Images of anti-government checkpoints in Dnepropetrovsk.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1270105.html

Locals say that several other Ukrainian military units have been blockaded by locals, when attempting to enter Kramatorsk. Warning shots were fired, and jets and helos flew around, but the locals did not disperse. They are not reportedly feeding the soldiers, and convincing them not to fight.

Sorry can't link to the specific post, his livejournal doesn't seem to allow it.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/

Ukrainian sources claim the video of a tank being chased around by a Niva SUV with locals, is a fake shot in Russia. There is some evidence that this may be true.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3339450.html

And in Sumskoya region a BM-27 Uragan loading vehicle drowned in a swamp/lake, killing two Ukrainian soldiers.

http://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/13309...skova-spetstekhnika-zaginulo-dvoye-viyskovikh

Meanwhile the Russian Federal Migration Service reports larger and larger numbers of Ukrainians crossing into Russia, as the instability increases.

http://newsru.com/russia/16apr2014/bejenzy.html

 

[Twain]

If you have the polls please share. I think there is a lot of truth to what you say. That having been said, the photo and video material gathered so far shows a lot of younger people involved, and the use of social media sites to coordinate these actions between people, and even cities, also speaks against your theory that this is an aging and small minority. I do think that the people protesting are a motivated minority, but they are a very large minority and they cannot be ignored. I think the majority of the population is politically inert, and while it has some opinion on things, it's not motivated or polarized enough to take to the streets to fight for their views, which is what it has come to (and not just in the East, let us not forget that the government in Kiev was brought to power by a determined, well organized, and armed minority).

I'll look for the polls tonight, I forgot where I found them. As to the young people being involved, I didn't say there were no young people that are in favor of joining Russia, I said that the numbers decreased the younger they were.

Like I wrote earlier, Ukraine is not a democracy, and the mind set of the population there is not that of a democratic nation. In the East, the politically active element of the population (and not a small one either) is heavily pro-Russian. It has tacit support of a lot of locals who support them not so much in favor of Russia, as against Kiev.

As for federalization, remember Russian didn't suggest a referendum on it. Russia suggested Ukraine federalize. The point of the federalization is to weaken the central government, and make it forever impossible for Ukraine to join NATO, or even the EU, under some particularly active pro-Western leader. It's an intelligent move on Russia's part, and had the west grabbed on to it, it could have been used to de-escalate the current tensions, but it might be too late now regardless.

Also remember, the more urbanized an area is, the higher the percentage of Russian population, and Russian speakers. And it's been the cities that have become centers of resistance, Lugansk and Donetsk, sending out groups of activists and fighters to locales. In a few cases villages and small towns have also played their part, but their overall impact is significantly less. This will not be decided at the election polls. It will either be decided between closed doors using international diplomacy, or on the field of battle.

After all the majority may not be for independence, but they are certainly not willing to take to the streets to stop those who are from making it happen. So far it's been the opposite. Those who disagree in the east mostly sit home, and those who are for it take to the streets in massive numbers. The pro-Ukrainian protests that did take place usually involved bussed in activists from Kiev, or elsewhere.

That's pretty well sums it up actually. It is a minority that is driving events but it is an active highly motivated minority as compared to an apathetic majority.

As to your comments about democracy, I am not one who assumes that everyone wants democracy. I'm more of a subscriber to Maslows Heirarchy of needs. Different forms of government can fulfill those needs.

I do think that in the long run, Russia is going to regret all this. The long term economic consequences are going to be considerable, not from the sanctions but from Europe buying their energy needs elsewhere. That leaves Russia in a bad position having only China as a potential growth customer. As monlithic as Russia's exports are, it will be painful.

 

[Feanor]

I do think that in the long run, Russia is going to regret all this. The long term economic consequences are going to be considerable, not from the sanctions but from Europe buying their energy needs elsewhere. That leaves Russia in a bad position having only China as a potential growth customer. As monlithic as Russia's exports are, it will be painful.

I think we agree then. Though to be honest I'm not sure what a practical alternative would have been for Russia.

 

[SolarWind]

I do think that in the long run, Russia is going to regret all this. The long term economic consequences are going to be considerable, not from the sanctions but from Europe buying their energy needs elsewhere. That leaves Russia in a bad position having only China as a potential growth customer. As monlithic as Russia's exports are, it will be painful.

In the long run, south and south-east Asia will intensify growth in infrastructure, industry and manufacturing, so the energy market south of Russia is only going to grow. On the other hand, gas from hydraulic fracturing is going to cost more than gas obtained using traditional extraction methods. So Europe will just end up paying a higher price for costlier gas plus transportation and shipping costs across the Atlantic. In addition, this scheme for switching to shipping compressed gas to Europe instead of piping, has a very high fixed cost (start-up cost) due to infrastructure needs and is a deadweight loss to world economy. My only wish is that this monstrosity is not funded by taxpayer money in the interest of homeland security, but by whoever had economic interest in it in the first place.

 

[bdique]

Oh yesterday I mentioned that there probably weren't any UkrAF SU-25s employed. I take that back they were spotted, but I am not sure if they are armed for air-ground missions (I highly doubt it).

The Aviationist » Ukrainian Su-27 Flanker reportedly shot down during special operation against separatists

 

[Feanor]

Update. Locals report that a Ukrainian Army Unit near Mariupol' consists of forcibly conscripted reservists, who are asking the locals to keep "blockading" them so they don't have to fight anyone.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - ДобитьÑÑ Ð»Ð¾ÑльноÑти меÑтного наÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ ждать Ñпокойно приказа хунты?

Meanwhile also in Mariupol', locals attacked an MVD military base with molotov cocktails, and improvised explosives. The MVD returned fire, killing one and wounding 12. The attackers have been scattered. There are claims that after the crowds were scattered, unknown personnel in black uniforms proceeded to sweep the streets, and gunfire continued. The casualty info is unconfirmed.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Стрельба в Мариуполе
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ìàðèóïîëå íåèçâåñòíûå ïîøëè íà øòóðì âîèíñêîé ÷àñòè: åñòü ðàíåíûå

Ukrainian media reports that 1500 locals have surrounded the Kramatorsk airport. An attack is expected.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Текущее

Meanwhile here's a video of a couple of BMDs loaded with troops fleeing rapidly from a few civilian cars and vans.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwh4v00WOGY#t=32"]новое- Ð¿Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð½Ñ Ð·Ð° бмд поÑелок КраÑногорка КраматорÑк 16.04.2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

In Ukraine a 10 000 dollar bounty has been announced for every "Russian diversant" captured. Witch hunt time?

http://newsru.com/world/17apr2014/ukr.html

Meanwhile railroad communication between Russia and Ukraine is slowing to a halt.

http://newsru.com/russia/17apr2014/rzd.html

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A few of the pics are government troops, most are the rebels.

u_96:
Lenta.ru:

The 25th Airmobile brigade will be disbanded for cowardice and surrendering their weapons. This comes after several incidents where locals report that the blockaded airborne guys surrendered the bolts from their rifles, and were then allowed to leave.

u_96: "
Бригада, военные которой Ñдали оружие в СлавÑнÑке, будет раÑформирована, а Ñлужащие предÑтанут перед Ñудом, - Турчинов - Главные новоÑти -
bmpd -

In Slavyansk an interview with a self-defense forces leader. He says that about 60 Ukrainian soldiers crossed over to their side, with some vehicles, and that another 300 decided to go home, after surrendering their weapons. The soldiers that crossed over to their side were fed, disarmed, and then also sent home. He says they do not support Yanukovich, and consider themselves a-political. Their primary concern is their city.

 

In Kramatorsk the locals continue to blockade and disarm troops.

Colonel Cassad -

Near Pchelkino, a column of 16 vehicles, and ~100 troops, was blockaded, and disarmed, after which they were allowed to go home. On soldier per vehicle was allowed to keep his weapons. The interviews with locals show that these are predominantly local people, women, older people, not militia. They don't want fighting near their homes, and they don't want to see Ukrainian troops here.

http://www.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/16-bmd-i-okolo-sotni-voennosluzhaschih-b.html

The result of the government actions in Mariupol' is 3 dead, 13 wounded. What exactly happened after the shooting started is unclear, but most sources seem to agree that locals tried to first talk the unit into surrendering, and then attacked with molotov cocktails and improvised explosives. The unit in question was a special police regiment. The regiment consists of draftees, and reportedly the crowd of locals included the parents of some of the conscripts inside.

u_96:
Ð’ Мариуполе поÑтрадавший в переÑтрелке возле воинÑкой чаÑти раÑÑказал о ÑобытиÑÑ… минувшей ночи (ФОТО) | 0629.com.ua - ÐовоÑти МариуполÑ

A new Ukrainian Brigade of Marines will be formed. The video is very long, and shows some very shiny new equipment for the Marines.

u_96:

In Lugansk locals report that college students are being forced to attend a pro-Ukraine rally, by their colleges administrations. And that personnel in Russina camouflage were sighted, but they were not Russian personnel.

Colonel Cassad -

Meanwhile Finnish intelligence says there are no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. I wonder what the Icelandian intelligence has to say about this?

u_96:

The president of the Czech Republic called the situation in Ukraine, a war between gangsters.

 

Ukraine has banned the entry of Russian males between the ages of 16 and 60. Also the entry of Ukrainian women from Crimea into Ukraine, between the ages of 25-35, unless they submit to a filtration process.

u_96:

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A few of the pics are government troops, most are the rebels.

u_96:
Lenta.ru:

The 25th Airmobile brigade will be disbanded for cowardice and surrendering their weapons. This comes after several incidents where locals report that the blockaded airborne guys surrendered the bolts from their rifles, and were then allowed to leave.

u_96: "
Бригада, военные которой Ñдали оружие в СлавÑнÑке, будет раÑформирована, а Ñлужащие предÑтанут перед Ñудом, - Турчинов - Главные новоÑти -
bmpd -

In Slavyansk an interview with a self-defense forces leader. He says that about 60 Ukrainian soldiers crossed over to their side, with some vehicles, and that another 300 decided to go home, after surrendering their weapons. The soldiers that crossed over to their side were fed, disarmed, and then also sent home. He says they do not support Yanukovich, and consider themselves a-political. Their primary concern is their city.

*

In Kramatorsk the locals continue to blockade and disarm troops.

Colonel Cassad -

Near Pchelkino, a column of 16 vehicles, and ~100 troops, was blockaded, and disarmed, after which they were allowed to go home. On soldier per vehicle was allowed to keep his weapons. The interviews with locals show that these are predominantly local people, women, older people, not militia. They don't want fighting near their homes, and they don't want to see Ukrainian troops here.

http://www.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/16-bmd-i-okolo-sotni-voennosluzhaschih-b.html

The result of the government actions in Mariupol' is 3 dead, 13 wounded. What exactly happened after the shooting started is unclear, but most sources seem to agree that locals tried to first talk the unit into surrendering, and then attacked with molotov cocktails and improvised explosives. The unit in question was a special police regiment. The regiment consists of draftees, and reportedly the crowd of locals included the parents of some of the conscripts inside.

u_96:
Ð’ Мариуполе поÑтрадавший в переÑтрелке возле воинÑкой чаÑти раÑÑказал о ÑобытиÑÑ… минувшей ночи (ФОТО) | 0629.com.ua - ÐовоÑти МариуполÑ

A new Ukrainian Brigade of Marines will be formed. The video is very long, and shows some very shiny new equipment for the Marines.

u_96:

In Lugansk locals report that college students are being forced to attend a pro-Ukraine rally, by their colleges administrations. And that personnel in Russina camouflage were sighted, but they were not Russian personnel.

Colonel Cassad -

In Donetsk Ukrainian military took 10 people hostage, accusing the locals of stealing a fuel truck. They beat the hostages, and eventually demanded fuel in exchange for the hostages. They also put weapons on the stripped hostages, took photos, and claimed that they would use the photos as evidence of "separatism". The hostages also report english-speakers in a different color camouflage in the field camp.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9ADfTKgnZY#t=61"]УкраинÑкие военные избивают и пытают жителей Донецкой облаÑти. - YouTube[/nomedia]

Also large pro-Ukraine rallies took place in Donetsk and Kramatorsk. Note the orderly situation, and the city police keeping the sides apart. (the same city police that crossed over to the rebels side...) These are the first such rallies in quite some time.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFj3H8Wg4As"]КраматорÑк за Украину 3 - YouTube[/nomedia]
https://twitter.com/DerekStoffelCBC/status/456825187494002688/photo/1

Meanwhile Finnish intelligence says there are no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. I wonder what the Icelandian intelligence has to say about this?

u_96:

The president of the Czech Republic called the situation in Ukraine, a war between gangsters.

*

Ukraine has banned the entry of Russian males between the ages of 16 and 60. Also the entry of Ukrainian women from Crimea into Ukraine, between the ages of 25-35, unless they submit to a filtration process.

u_96:

 

[stojo]

Update.

Way to go Feanor.

 

[Volkodav]

I think the President of the Czech Republic has hit the nail on the head.

 

[Twain]

In the long run, south and south-east Asia will intensify growth in infrastructure, industry and manufacturing, so the energy market south of Russia is only going to grow. On the other hand, gas from hydraulic fracturing is going to cost more than gas obtained using traditional extraction methods. So Europe will just end up paying a higher price for costlier gas plus transportation and shipping costs across the Atlantic. In addition, this scheme for switching to shipping compressed gas to Europe instead of piping, has a very high fixed cost (start-up cost) due to infrastructure needs and is a deadweight loss to world economy. My only wish is that this monstrosity is not funded by taxpayer money in the interest of homeland security, but by whoever had economic interest in it in the first place.

While all that is true, it's not the real issue. Russia is very limited by geography in petro export potential. Most of the infrastructure that has been built to export LNG and petro product is built to service Europe. Sending these exports to the east is extremely limited due to current pipeline limitations. The problem for Russia is that if they want to export natural gas to the east they are extremely limited as to potential export customers. Take a look at the map, geographically China is the only realistic customer in even the medium term. I suppose they could build a pipeline to vladivostok but that would remove many of the competitive advantages they currently have. Exporting from vladivostok would not only involve a few thousand kilometers of extra pipeline but it would also require LNG loading facilities and tankers.

The point being is that if Europe moves away from Russia as a supplier that leaves russia in the unenviable position of having to negotiate with china for both sales and potentially pipelines to other countries or ports. That puts China in a very strong negotiating position. IIRC currently China and Russia are negotiating an agreement for russia to supply china with natural gas but the holdup has been that Russia wants china to pay for a large part of the pipeline costs. So far China has been refusing to agree to this. I would expect that the chinese position just got a lot more firm.

As to US exports, IIRC five LNG export terminals had been approved prior to the whole mess in Ukraine. I would expect more to be approved in the coming months.

 

[Twain]

SACEUR

It’s hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It’s hard to fathom because it’s simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.

ACO - Allied Command Operations | Saceur - Who Are the Men Behind the Masks?

Mainly just an FYI here, not that this should be surprising after the events in Crimea.



I would assume everyone has seen the agreement to de-escalate things in the eastern Ukraine, does anyone think that will really be successful?

Ukraine crisis: Geneva talks produce agreement on defusing conflict | World news | The Guardian

 

[stojo]

SACEUR

It’s hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It’s hard to fathom because it’s simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.


Mainly just an FYI here, not that this should be surprising after the events in Crimea.



I would assume everyone has seen the agreement to de-escalate things in the eastern Ukraine, does anyone think that will really be successful?

As someone who had his share of civil war, popular "uprisings", and national revolutions during the wars in former Yugoslavia, I think I can perceive what is going on in Ukraine at the moment, and I think you are partially wrong.

Crimean operation was a military operation, and that is the reason why there was almost no casualties there. It was executed by the Russian special forces, over which, Russia, naturally, had complete control in every moment. Local militias, paramilitaries, and such, appeared only after the occupation was de facto done deal.

What is happening in eastern Ukraine, at the moment is a whole different story. There it is militias, who are running the show, with the Russian troops on the opposite side of the border. No one would have been surprised if one was to learn that Russian agents helped armed groups in eastern Ukraine to coordinate their actions, or that indeed among them, there are some Russian citizens. However, 90% of those who protest, who block the roads, and who are members of local militias are citizens of Ukraine - locals, who are in the same time intimidated and angry by violent anti-Russian rhetoric of the ultra right part of the Kiev government, as well as fueled by the exaggerations of Putin's propaganda.

My experience from Yugoslavia is, that the members of the self organised paramilitary units are, by default, a mixture of idealistic hotheads, honest citizens willing to fight for "freedom", petty criminals interested in looting, and bunch of trigger happy adrenaline junkies,hooligans,etc ... you name it.

These people are not easy to control, and they will disregard orders even from Moscow if they see it fit. Bottom line: it is easy to give people guns - it is much harder to make them to bring the guns back, especially if those people are already exercising some kind of power, by the very fact that they posses these guns.

So I was not at all surprised by the words of the leaders of the Donetsk revolt, that they find themselves not obliged to follow any deal brokered by Russia, because Russia speaks for her self, not the Donetsk...

I think, that both West and Russia, had their share in escalating the situation. West by offering political support to Maidan protesters, Russians of course, by occupying Crimea, and offering support to eastern Ukrainian "insurgents", but at this present moment, it is neither Russia, nor West, not even the Kiev government who is in control of the situation, and it will remain like that in a while.

 

[Feanor]

I think the President of the Czech Republic has hit the nail on the head.

With a major caveat. There are major popular components to both sides of the conflict. Those people need to be adequately represented. The pro-Western population sees all their problems stemming from being like Russia. The pro-Russian population sees all their problems from not being like Russia. They're both partially right, in the sense that either option would certainly be preferable to what they have today. The problem is that neither side wants to talk rationally, and neither side is seems willing to compromise.

It’s hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities.

They did not suddenly spring forward. Western media just ignored the situation in eastern Ukraine, until it got to this stage. Actually there were peaceful protests when the euro-Maydan took over Kiev. They went ignored. There were peaceful takeovers of administration buildings by unmasked locals after Yanukovich fell and the new government took power, but they were beaten back by the police, and chased out. There were violent takeovers, with sticks, and stones, of government buildings, (not dissimilar to the tactics of the euro-Maydan against the police) but even then the government chose to escalate and use more violence (like in Nikolaev and Kharkov). They even had to use special MVD units because local police refused to do it. People were also getting arrested and charged with crimes. That's when they started to wear masks. And instead of taking over the government building they seized the SBU buildings. They proceeded to open the arsenals there (which is where the weapons came from). Now there are a bunch of armed and semi-organized militias running around.

Did the hint to grab SBU buildings come from Russia? Quite possible. Actually I saw on many Russian and Ukrainian live journals, people writing that instead of seizing the government administration buildings, the protesters should seize police stations and SBU buildings, because there are weapons there, and because force wielding agencies are the way the new government holds power. So it may not have require a Russian suggestion.

 

[Twain]

As someone who had his share of civil war, popular "uprisings", and national revolutions during the wars in former Yugoslavia, I think I can perceive what is going on in Ukraine at the moment, and I think you are partially wrong.

Crimean operation was a military operation, and that is the reason why there was almost no casualties there. It was executed by the Russian special forces, over which, Russia, naturally, had complete control in every moment. Local militias, paramilitaries, and such, appeared only after the occupation was de facto done deal.

What is happening in eastern Ukraine, at the moment is a whole different story. There it is militias, who are running the show, with the Russian troops on the opposite side of the border. No one would have been surprised if one was to learn that Russian agents helped armed groups in eastern Ukraine to coordinate their actions, or that indeed among them, there are some Russian citizens. However, 90% of those who protest, who block the roads, and who are members of local militias are citizens of Ukraine - locals, who are in the same time intimidated and angry by violent anti-Russian rhetoric of the ultra right part of the Kiev government, as well as fueled by the exaggerations of Putin's propaganda.

My experience from Yugoslavia is, that the members of the self organised paramilitary units are, by default, a mixture of idealistic hotheads, honest citizens willing to fight for "freedom", petty criminals interested in looting, and bunch of trigger happy adrenaline junkies,hooligans,etc ... you name it.

These people are not easy to control, and they will disregard orders even from Moscow if they see it fit. Bottom line: it is easy to give people guns - it is much harder to make them to bring the guns back, especially if those people are already exercising some kind of power, by the very fact that they posses these guns.

So I was not at all surprised by the words of the leaders of the Donetsk revolt, that they find themselves not obliged to follow any deal brokered by Russia, because Russia speaks for her self, not the Donetsk...

I think, that both West and Russia, had their share in escalating the situation. West by offering political support to Maidan protesters, Russians of course, by occupying Crimea, and offering support to eastern Ukrainian "insurgents", but at this present moment, it is neither Russia, nor West, not even the Kiev government who is in control of the situation, and it will remain like that in a while.

Your post expands a bit on what SACEUR's blog post said and really isn't in disagreement with it. I don't disagree with it either. I agree that it is probably 90% citizens of Ukraine.

I think his point though is the efficiency and professionalism the "militias" exhibited after only a matter of only a few weeks is highly unlikely. The 10% outsiders are the ones being used to organize and spearhead this whole thing though, without them the militias would be little more than an armed mob at this stage. No doubt they would still be dangerous but they wouldn't be nearly as effective, even accounting for the incompetence of the Ukranian military.

Right now russia is pulling the strings in eastern Ukraine but as you pointed out, this could easily spiral out of control.

 

[Twain]

suddenly[/i] spring forward. Western media just ignored the situation in eastern Ukraine, until it got to this stage. Actually there were peaceful protests when the euro-Maydan took over Kiev. They went ignored. There were peaceful takeovers of administration buildings by unmasked locals after Yanukovich fell and the new government took power, but they were beaten back by the police, and chased out. There were violent takeovers, with sticks, and stones, of government buildings, (not dissimilar to the tactics of the euro-Maydan against the police) but even then the government chose to escalate and use more violence (like in Nikolaev and Kharkov). They even had to use special MVD units because local police refused to do it. People were also getting arrested and charged with crimes. That's when they started to wear masks. And instead of taking over the government building they seized the SBU buildings. They proceeded to open the arsenals there (which is where the weapons came from). Now there are a bunch of armed and semi-organized militias running around.

Did the hint to grab SBU buildings come from Russia? Quite possible. Actually I saw on many Russian and Ukrainian live journals, people writing that instead of seizing the government administration buildings, the protesters should seize police stations and SBU buildings, because there are weapons there, and because force wielding agencies are the way the new government holds power. So it may not have require a Russian suggestion.

I agree that they didn't suddenly spring forward, but as I said in my reply above this, it's pretty highly unlikely that local militias that have only existed a few weeks would exhibit the degree of professionalism and efficiency that is being displayed. Considering the level of competence the Ukranian army is exhibiting, it's pretty unlikely these assaults are being conducted by Ukranian army defectors either.


Also it's not like russia doesn't have a precedent in the Ukraine for sending in troops to accomplish their goals. Putin has shown he is willing to push things in the Ukraine as far as he can, why would he hesitate at sending in some special operation troops to assist? Keep in mind I say this at a time when I wouldn't be surprised if some NATO countries had some people in Ukraine as advisers at this very moment.

 

[mAIOR]

I agree that they didn't suddenly spring forward, but as I said in my reply above this, it's pretty highly unlikely that local militias that have only existed a few weeks would exhibit the degree of professionalism and efficiency that is being displayed. Considering the level of competence the Ukranian army is exhibiting, it's pretty unlikely these assaults are being conducted by Ukranian army defectors either.


Also it's not like russia doesn't have a precedent in the Ukraine for sending in troops to accomplish their goals. Putin has shown he is willing to push things in the Ukraine as far as he can, why would he hesitate at sending in some special operation troops to assist? Keep in mind I say this at a time when I wouldn't be surprised if some NATO countries had some people in Ukraine as advisers at this very moment.

I think the degree of professionalism shown by the militias varies greatly and although not wanting to discount any kind of Russian (or Western) involvement, if you have a small group of people with prior knowledge on the matter it would be pretty easy to organize them simply by bundling them together. I imagine they would show up if they got word of the taking over of sdu buildings. I would in their place.

Also, normal people aren't stupid and I don't find it hard to believe that ordinary citizens reached the conclusion that they needed the arsenals if their movement is to continue without slaughter.

I think that blaming the Russians for the current situation is giving them far too much credit.

We cannot discount employees of local oligarchs who would have the necessary training to commit organized assaults.

Just my 5c.

 

[Feanor]

I agree that they didn't suddenly spring forward, but as I said in my reply above this, it's pretty highly unlikely that local militias that have only existed a few weeks would exhibit the degree of professionalism and efficiency that is being displayed. Considering the level of competence the Ukranian army is exhibiting, it's pretty unlikely these assaults are being conducted by Ukranian army defectors either.

What degree of professionalism? Government buildings were seized by crowds, multiple times, with various levels of damage and looting. From the photos, videos, and eyewitness reports, you can see that the blockading of Ukrainian army units is done by crowds of locals including women and the elderly. Every once in a while you see a few photos of armed and variously equipped militia men. Some of them could be professionals, from the looks of it, but then don't forget these militias include a lot of ex-service members, and ex-law enforcement. As for a few weeks, pro-Russian political and social organizations predate the current crisis, and while I don't know the details, I wouldn't be surprised to see that they became the sources for these militias.

I think that these militias are seen as a lot more formidable then they really are, because the Ukrainian force wielding establishment is so incompetent. The armed forces are full of drafted reservists, and underpaid demoralized contract soldiers who just want to go back to base, and make easy pay doing nothing the way they always did. The MVD is split in the conflict, with only central units being reliable, and even the SBU is not to be counted on. After all Kiev's elite Alpha unit refused to storm protester held buildings in iirc Donetsk, stating that they will not fight against their own people. Compared to this sort of lack of will and desire, the militias look good. But if they were faced with any coherent, motivated, and organized force, they would crumble very very quickly.