Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Updates.

In Kramatorsk, 3 BMDs broke down. The soldiers had them towed to a local tractor machine shop, to try and repair them. However several BTRs with National Guard, and a helicopter showed up. They opened fire wounding one worker, then arrested the soldiers, whom they considered to be deserters. This is probably an over reaction, after the incident of troops with their vehicles switching sides. Given that the soldiers were armed, it's a surprise they didn't fight back.

u_96:

But the militias are getting to be more and more organized. These photos, from the last couple of days show the militias using the captured BMDs, as well as captured army trucks and heavy weapons. Note that an Ural truck full of RPGs was stopped and reportedly looted by the militias, as well as a convoy of 3 trucks carrying Grad rockets, and possibly Igla-S MANPADS.

https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hph...150_602106739885667_8451394509111452844_n.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c616428/v616428413/9909/XS-NSItV3p4.jpg
http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9304/27652091.2a5/0_8da6e_98007065_XL.jpg

In response to the issue of professionalism, this was pointed out. Note the similarity in equipment between Donetsk MVD Berkut, and Donetsk People's Militia. Some of the Berkut personnel, and certainly a lot of their equipment, is probably in the militia.

http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9823/27652091.2a2/0_8d95a_68194128_XXL.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/cCbzSY2.jpg

In Slavyansk all the roads are now under militia control (or "control" as the case may be) and in Kramatorsk the militia has taken over a broadcast center. They've reportedly used it to resume transmission of Russian TV channels in the region. Locals do continue to report government planes and helos over Kramatorsk, but far fewer then before.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñåïàðàòèñòû âçÿëè ïîä êîíòðîëü âñå äîðîãè â Ñëàâÿíñêå è çàõâàòèëè â Êðàìàòîðñêå âåùàòåëüíûé öåíòð

A video from the 17th of April, a VDV officer giving a speech where he says that they will never fire on their own people, and that they politely ask the locals to let them leave the way they came. It looks like they're eventually allowed to leave after surrendering the bolts on the weapons, and a piece of the gun mechanism, disabling the cannons. This might be a video of one of the incidents with disarming that I mentioned earlier.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m19prbm6S8s#t=26"]КраматорÑк: обÑтановка на въезде в город. 17.04.2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

In the meantime the Kiev government declared a temporary halt to the anti-terrorist operation.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êèåâ ïðèîñòàíîâèë ñïåöîïåðàöèþ íà âîñòîêå, ñåïàðàòèñòû ñ æåíåâñêèì äîãîâîðîì íå ñîãëàñíû è æäóò ðàçîðóæåíèÿ "Ïðàâîãî ñåêòîðà"

And has halted water supplies to Crimea.

http://newsru.com/russia/18apr2014/waterkream.html

Ukraine has also begun forming a new brigade of Marines.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/force/5091-1.html

 

[SolarWind]

While all that is true, it's not the real issue. Russia is very limited by geography in petro export potential. Most of the infrastructure that has been built to export LNG and petro product is built to service Europe. Sending these exports to the east is extremely limited due to current pipeline limitations. The problem for Russia is that if they want to export natural gas to the east they are extremely limited as to potential export customers. Take a look at the map, geographically China is the only realistic customer in even the medium term. I suppose they could build a pipeline to vladivostok but that would remove many of the competitive advantages they currently have. Exporting from vladivostok would not only involve a few thousand kilometers of extra pipeline but it would also require LNG loading facilities and tankers.

The point being is that if Europe moves away from Russia as a supplier that leaves russia in the unenviable position of having to negotiate with china for both sales and potentially pipelines to other countries or ports. That puts China in a very strong negotiating position. IIRC currently China and Russia are negotiating an agreement for russia to supply china with natural gas but the holdup has been that Russia wants china to pay for a large part of the pipeline costs. So far China has been refusing to agree to this. I would expect that the chinese position just got a lot more firm.

As to US exports, IIRC five LNG export terminals had been approved prior to the whole mess in Ukraine. I would expect more to be approved in the coming months.

If Europe imposes trade barriers for trade with Russia, Russia will retaliate with its own trade barriers. In the end, EU gas consumers, Gazprom, EU producers of various goods exported to Russia and their Russian consumers lose, while US and EU natural gas producers and Russian and Asian producers of goods similar to those currently imported by Russia from EU benefit. Also, world prices of natural gas should drop as a direct result of this, while gas prices in the EU rise. As you can see there will be winners and losers on both sides.

In the long term, India and South-East Asia should emerge as significant net importers of gas. And I am sure Russia can export gas extracted in their central and eastern parts, so they don't have to build a pipeline from their west.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Near Slavyansk, a BMD burned out. It's unclear how this occurred. It might be one of the BMDs that surrendered.

u_96:

A real time map of reported Ukrainian military movements, reported and updated by eyewitnesses. OPSEC failure anyone?

http://www.voicesevas.ru/troubles

The top of this post has a map of locations where militias have been formed, in Donbass. The newest addition is Seversk which recently came under their control. Also troop and vehicle columns have been spotted moving away from Donbass.

In Donetsk airport one Ukrainian soldier killed another. It seems to have been an accident. The casualties continue...

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1549431.html

More photos of the militias.

http://up-photo.ru/img/2014-04/18/903fam3bxjfgz2wx8e8l2hl6t.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/6t3k8BO.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/PAOgrZM.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/ojV3FDC.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/XTMurRN.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/kkQ6PDf.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/1Ggevp9.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/EuQTkgd.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/FYoN5CL.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/D0v8bt9.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/JfJs9In.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/MIMVXCv.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/KE5XdXd.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/jowLMAR.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/9IdHIEO.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/WJOcDzU.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/OyQymxT.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/5SlYOfB.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/suOdWVW.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/9ggHy7N.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/VSVV0CQ.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/5TBNPKz.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/cEnTzvl.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/RR8qvr9.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/gH3urXb.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/htwYFkB.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/wk6NCpn.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/FK1ne2Q.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/cokbgjY.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/FHKHd7r.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/2VuA2mV.jpg

And Ukrainian military photos from the recent operation.

http://i.imgur.com/qfSIHcM.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/GGBojIx.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/kDN4A6Q.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/6Ha4TQC.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/iSaETIw.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/YLoLr6P.jpg

There are some photos here of the Ukrainian soldiers surrendering the bolts to their weapons. If this source is correct, more then 6 vehicles may have surrendered/been captured by the locals. It mentions 16 BMDs being "got" by the villagers in Pchelkino, in addition to the 6, while "the rest escape". However I'm skeptical. Photos and videos would have likely turned up by now. According to him, all the weapons are functional, and you can see the militia members fiddling with an ATGM launcher, under the instructorship of a Ukrainian army soldier (probably one of the defectors).

stbcaptain.livejournal.com/100187.html

According to this interview with a militia member, all 6 captured vehicles are still in working order, so earlier reports of one breaking down, and another being burned out may have been regarding other vehicles. He also mentions that some people from other regions have showed up there, and tried to spread rumors of violence that are untrue. He also implies that their militia has taken no casualties. Which may mean that the people who died at the Kramatorsk airport were ordinary civilians and not militia members.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGuerA-NIZA#t=26"]ПТУР 'Фагот' в СлавÑнÑке - YouTube[/nomedia]

An un named Crimean defense enterprise landed a 5 bln rouble contract. Suspicions are that this is the More factory in Feodosiya, and the order is for Zubr class landing ships.

Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - неужто Зубров заказали?

In an interview a high ranking Berkut officer mentions that more and more Berkut officers are leaving Ukraine going to Russia or Crimea. Earlier Berkut officers from Crimea were offered jobs in Moscow OMON. He mentions that they've been getting threats over the phone from unknown people, and don't want to serve the criminal regime.

azlok.livejournal.com/941562.html

Yulia Timoshenko requests military aid from the USA.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òèìîøåíêî îáðàòèëàñü â Êîíãðåññ ÑØÀ çà âîåííîé ïîìîùüþ äëÿ Óêðàèíû: "Âðåìåíè íà ïðîìåäëåíèå ó íàñ íåò"

The return of Ukrainian ships from Crimea is continuing. But it's still unclear whether all ships will be returned, but most have been so far.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ФлотÑкое

A photo set of the storming of a police station in Gorlovka. No dates, so I don't know when this occurred. Note the police equipment quickly making it's way into the crowd.

http://englishrussia.com/2014/04/14/a-police-station-stormed-in-gorlovka-ukraine/#more-145342

More photos out of Kramatorsk. They're a few days old, from when the anti-terrorist operation was in full swing.

http://tutuskania.livejournal.com/1606017.html
http://tutuskania.livejournal.com/1608554.html

Also Timoshenko visited her supporters in Donetsk. Note how small the numbers are and that they're all wearing masks.

tutuskania.livejournal.com/1609535.html

 

[Feanor]

Another town has fallen to Donetsk militia. The local government and police announced that they intend to work together with the militias, to maintain public order and safety.

ЛОГОВО ÐЕТОЛЕРÐÐТÐОГО СРЕДÐЕВЕКОВОГО МРÐКОБЕСР- СеверÑк! Да!

The self-proclaimed "people's mayor" of Slavaynsk requested that Putin send Russian troops to Kharkov, Donbass, and Lugansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëèäåð ñåïàðàòèñòîâ Ñëàâÿíñêà ïðîñèò Ïóòèíà ââåñòè âîéñêà â òðè îáëàñòè Óêðàèíû

Some sort of independence and Russian annexation referendum is planned in Lugansk by the local sepratists.

Colonel Cassad -

A shooting took place at a Slavyansk check point. 4 SUVs with Right Sector activists opened fire on a checkpoint, which was manned by 26 unarmed locals. 3 died, one was wounded, the rest scattered, but managed to get help. 20 militia fighters from the city responded, engaged the attackers, and destroyed two of the SUVs. The others fled. Inside they found a map of Slavyansk, with the broadcast tower circled (the one that's now retransmitting Russian TV channels), explosives, night vision devices, and Right Sector symbolics.

 

A video of the checkpoint, manned by the militia and crowds of locals, where a shooting took place last night in Slavyansk.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0RnVhw2shI"]Scene of Sloviansk Shooting - YouTube[/nomedia]

In Enakievo, Donetsk, Yanukovich's home town, all the militia activists disappeared overnight.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: íà ìàëîé ðîäèíå ßíóêîâè÷à êóäà-òî èñ÷åçëè âñå ñåïàðàòèñòû, êðîìå îäíîãî

The Ukrainian MVD invites ex-Berkut service members to return to work. This is right after an interview with a Crimean Berkut officer who described the problematic conditions for Ukrainian Berkut members, and how many of them are fleeing to Russia.

 

Some Ukrainian military trucks have been found being sold off illegally as "scrap metal".

Ð’ Украине нашли иÑправные армейÑкие автомобили в пункте приема металлолома

In Belgorod, large numbers of Il-76s have been sighted. They were unloading personnel and vehicles, but specifics are absent. Photos here.

bmpd -

Also 5 Su-27s were sighted in Crimea. It's likely they're Su-27SM3s from Krymsk.

bmpd -

 

[Feanor]

Another town has fallen to Donetsk militia. The local government and police announced that they intend to work together with the militias, to maintain public order and safety.

ЛОГОВО ÐЕТОЛЕÐ*ÐÐТÐОГО СÐ*ЕДÐЕВЕКОВОГО ÐœÐ*ÐКОБЕСР- СеверÑк! Да!

The self-proclaimed "people's mayor" of Slavaynsk requested that Putin send Russian troops to Kharkov, Donbass, and Lugansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëèäåð ñåïàðàòèñòîâ Ñëàâÿíñêà ïðîñèò Ïóòèíà ââåñòè âîéñêà â òðè îáëàñòè Óêðàèíû

Some sort of independence and Russian annexation referendum is planned in Lugansk by the local sepratists.

Colonel Cassad -

A shooting took place at a Slavyansk check point. 4 SUVs with Right Sector activists opened fire on a checkpoint, which was manned by 26 unarmed locals. 3 died, one was wounded, the rest scattered, but managed to get help. 20 militia fighters from the city responded, engaged the attackers, and destroyed two of the SUVs. The others fled. Inside they found a map of Slavyansk, with the broadcast tower circled (the one that's now retransmitting Russian TV channels), explosives, night vision devices, and Right Sector symbolics. They also found weapons that are of non-Ukrainian origin, claiming that they are foreign-made (what this means is unclear). The militia fighter in the third link does mentioned German grenades, and a large quantity of ammunition (presumably not 7.62X39 or 5.45X39).

*
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qctyS0h0u-M"]Ðародное ополчение в СлавÑнÑке вводит комендантÑкий Ñ‡Ð°Ñ - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d6RvbK4-jY"]СлавÑнÑк Ðападение на блок поÑÑ‚ Правым Ñектором - YouTube[/nomedia]

A video of the checkpoint, manned by the militia and crowds of locals, where a shooting took place last night in Slavyansk.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0RnVhw2shI"]Scene of Sloviansk Shooting - YouTube[/nomedia]

One of the Right Sector guys was captured. According to him, they were a group of 6 from Kiev and Western Ukraine. They were sent to Kharkov and then Slavyansk. He doesn't explain what they were there to do. After the militia showed up and returned fire, they scattered and ran.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JojZXOlKJM"]Ð’ СлавÑнÑке задержан боевик "Правого Ñектора", атаковавший один из блокпоÑтов - YouTube[/nomedia]

The Kiev government claims that 2 of the captured armored vehicles have been returned to them, but local sources disagree stating all 6 are still in militia hands.

http://www.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/slavjansk-shest-bmd-rekvizirovannye-u-uk.html

In Enakievo, Donetsk, Yanukovich's home town, all the militia activists disappeared overnight.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: íà ìàëîé ðîäèíå ßíóêîâè÷à êóäà-òî èñ÷åçëè âñå ñåïàðàòèñòû, êðîìå îäíîãî

The Ukrainian MVD invites ex-Berkut service members to return to work. This is right after an interview with a Crimean Berkut officer who described the problematic conditions for Ukrainian Berkut members, and how many of them are fleeing to Russia.

*

Some Ukrainian military trucks have been found being sold off illegally as "scrap metal".

Ð’ Украине нашли иÑпÑŬавные армейÑкие автомобили в пункте приема металлолома

In Belgorod, large numbers of Il-76s have been sighted. They were unloading personnel and vehicles, but specifics are absent. Photos here.

bmpd -

Also 5 Su-27s were sighted in Crimea. It's likely they're Su-27SM3s from Krymsk.

bmpd -

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Two men were randomly shot (not fatally), kidnapped, and beaten, under suspicion of being Russian agents, by the Ukrainian military. They were flown by helicopter to Kramatorsk airport, where they managed to get away.

Двоих мужчин, раненных, Ñ Ð¼ÐµÑˆÐºÐ°Ð¼Ð¸ на голове выкинули под КраматорÑким аÑродромом (ВИДЕО,ФОТО) | 6264.com.ua - ÐовоÑти КраматорÑка

Closer filming of the abandoned BMD-2 in Donbass shows that it's not one of the vehicles captured by the rebels, and that the vehicle shows signs of being fired on. Locals say that a helicopter shot it up. Speculating, but it seems to me that the vehicle was abandoned due to a mechanical breakdown and then destroyed by the military to keep rebels from using it.

u_96:
Gur Khan attacks!:

More photos of the militia.

u_96:
tutuskania:
http://www.imgmlp.com/images/2014/04/21/22ukraine-superJumbo.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/JRb8bdE.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/xAB3e85.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/2MBwH71.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/4kE0ZDI.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/E4MZBlp.jpg

Videos of the militia re-entering government buildings in Kramatorsk.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/43761.html

More photos of the checkpoint shooting scene in Slavyansk, after the shooting.

tutuskania.livejournal.com/1610855.html

And a short video of items recovered from the Right Sector vehicles at the scene of the Slavyansk shooting. Note the interesting machinegun in the video. It looks like an MG-3, but commentators have been speculating that it's a Yugoslav-produced look-alike.

u_96:

In Slavyansk, the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic has been placed on government buildings.

u_96:

In Slavyansk the rebels are launching their own TV channel, using the captured TV tower.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Äîíåöêèå ñåïàðàòèñòû çàïóñòèëè ñâîé òåëåêàíàë, "íàíîñÿùèé óäàð ïî ñèîíèñòñêîìó çîìáîâåùàíèþ"

"People's governors" have been selected in Kharkov and Lugansk. In Kharkov reportedly he was chosen at a protest rally of about 250 people (most of the protesters had already left). In Lugansk he was chosen at a closed session of the militia and local leaders. The Lugansk governor is also the commander of militia forces in Lugansk, while the Kharkov elected is a famous blogger.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Õàðüêîâå è Ëóãàíñêå èçáðàëè "íàðîäíûõ ãóáåðíàòîðîâ": õàðüêîâñêîãî æèòåëè ïîñëàëè ê ßíóêîâè÷ó, ëóãàíñêèé áûë èçáðàí â óçêîì êðóãó

Lugansk may be declaring independence, like Donbass.

Colonel Cassad -

In Crimea the local militia attacked the Tatar Medzhlis building, and ripped the Ukrainian flag down from it. Two of the women inside were beaten and threatened. This comes after, first an announcement that the Crimean militias will be disbanded, and later an announcement that the Crimean militias will get a special status like Cossack groups in Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íåèçâåñòíûå ëþäè, íàïàâøèå íà Ìåäæëèñ â Êðûìó, ñíÿëè óêðàèíñêèé ôëàã è èçáèëè íåñêîëüêèõ æåíùèí

This photo was posted of Ukrainian Air-Mobile troops exercises a little while ago. Now a column of similar vehicles was spotted in Melitopol'.

napoleon_6 -
stbcaptain.livejournal.com/101265.html

 

[swerve]

If Europe imposes trade barriers for trade with Russia, Russia will retaliate with its own trade barriers. In the end, EU gas consumers, Gazprom, EU producers of various goods exported to Russia and their Russian consumers lose,... .

Think about who hurts most. Who do you think? The state that depends on Europe for over half its export revenues & imports, or the states that get 12% of their imports from, & sell 7% of their exports to, Russia?

Without exports to Europe, Russia would go broke before it could build all the new pipelines, liquefaction plants, terminals, etc. to export enough oil & gas to the rest of the world to replace Europe, unless it slashed public spending (while spending vast amounts on all those new facilities) & imports.

Europe would hurt far less. Gas stocks are rising (time of year), & are already enough to cover several months of consumption. There are underused LNG terminals already in existence, connected by pipeline to most of the main users of Russian gas. The Baltic states will become able to replace Russian gas imports this year, with the opening of a new LNG terminal in Lithuania.

Complete replacement of Russian imports isn't possible in the short term, because there isn't enough LNG export capacity, & prices would increase considerably. Some of the shortfall can be replaced fairly quickly by other fuels (there are idle coal & nuclear power stations, for example), but there'd still be a significant shortage. But not a catastrophic shortage.

Exports to Russia are a fairly small part of European exports - but Russia gets over half of its imports from Europe. It's probably a safe bet that the USA, & perhaps some other non-European states, would join in. Many Russian manufacturers (e.g. of airliners) would have to find new suppliers of essential parts & equipment in a hurry, or cease production.

 

[SolarWind]

Think about who hurts most. Who do you think? The state that depends on Europe for over half its export revenues & imports, or the states that get 12% of their imports from, & sell 7% of their exports to, Russia?

I agree that Russia would hurt more from lost gas profits which are so important to them.

Complete replacement of Russian imports isn't possible in the short term, because there isn't enough LNG export capacity, & prices would increase considerably. Some of the shortfall can be replaced fairly quickly by other fuels (there are idle coal & nuclear power stations, for example), but there'd still be a significant shortage. But not a catastrophic shortage.

It seems you leave room for partial continuation of imports of Russian gas. If that's the case, Russia will have some time to secure new markets and build new facilities.

 

[My2Cents]

It seems you leave room for partial continuation of imports of Russian gas. If that's the case, Russia will have some time to secure new markets and build new facilities.

Agreed, Europe will still need to import some gas from Russia, but it can cut its imports of Russian gas and oil by 50% to 80% within a year if determined. At most Russia will only gain a couple months to develop new markets as their economy spirals into a rapidly depression. Not the 4 to 7 years required to build the export facilities, mostly pipelines, needed to access those markets.

 

[stojo]

Agreed, Europe will still need to import some gas from Russia, but it can cut its imports of Russian gas and oil by 50% to 80% within a year if determined. At most Russia will only gain a couple months to develop new markets as their economy spirals into a rapidly depression. Not the 4 to 7 years required to build the export facilities, mostly pipelines, needed to access those markets.

This is true, however, why would Germany or, indeed, any western European country, impose economic loss upon their economies, even marginal, when they don't have to.

The idea, that, Putin is trying, somehow to "snatch" Ukraine from EU is in blatant discord with facts. Before Ukrainian crisis set off, Roger Boyes, wrote an article for The Times titled "Ukraine, like Turkey, won’t ever join the EU", summing up all the arguments.

A country, three times larger than Poland, indeed, larger than most of the EU members, with a deteriorated economy, and endemically corrupt political leadership, a country which was on the verge of bankruptcy even before this ordeal with Russia, would be nothing but enormous burden on EU, already troubled by Greece, Ireland and others.

Brussels officials, are of course, routinely makeing statements about Ukrainian "European road", however - Brussels didn't bother even to remove the EU traveling obstacles for Ukrainian nationals, let alone did something more than that. As Boyes put it: "we are pretending that we want them, they are pretending that they are embracing European values".

It is my opinion that business elites in western Europe, who are, after all, running the political show, like in any other major capitalist democracy, find their business ties with Russia to be far more important then matters of principle and international law. In fact, most of the EU NATO members, including Germany, already supported border changes, various independence movements, and participated unauthorized military actions against sovereign states in other parts of Europe: and that was just ten years ago....

 

[gf0012-aust]

Putin has approx 18/12's remaining to use gas as a weapon. after that he starts to lose options and clout

he also knows that

 

[Feanor]

Putin has approx 18/12's remaining to use gas as a weapon. after that he starts to lose options and clout

he also knows that

What's 18/12's?

Also I doubt they will ever actually use gas as a weapon against Western Europe. The current Russian government is backed and financed by the people who profit from said gas sales. They will not endanger their own pockets.

Complete replacement of Russian imports isn't possible in the short term, because there isn't enough LNG export capacity, & prices would increase considerably. Some of the shortfall can be replaced fairly quickly by other fuels (there are idle coal & nuclear power stations, for example), but there'd still be a significant shortage. But not a catastrophic shortage.

Exports to Russia are a fairly small part of European exports - but Russia gets over half of its imports from Europe. It's probably a safe bet that the USA, & perhaps some other non-European states, would join in. Many Russian manufacturers (e.g. of airliners) would have to find new suppliers of essential parts & equipment in a hurry, or cease production.

But consider the real situation. Europe is not a unified actor. It wouldn't be unified actor even if the EU was a nation state (the realists are insane with their black-box model). It's not. It's a moderately flimsy international organization. Europe's willingness and ability to act together is quite limited. Then there's the fact that while Russia does not have the ability to actually destroy or even significantly damage the European economies, when politicians make a decision to act it's often based not on total ability to take damage, but on marginal gains and losses. So Russia's best game is divide and negotiate, and that's what they do quite often. NATO doesn't want to sell Russia weapons, but Thales is quite eager to exploit a new market, and will lobby actively to continue being able to sell whatever they can to Russia.

This doesn't mean western Europe can't handle Russia, it doesn't even mean that it won't. But it does make it less likely that they will. Especially when the issue is the fate of a large, economically destitute, politically unstable, and internally divided, country.

 

[swerve]

I agree that Russia would hurt more from lost gas profits which are so important to them.

It seems you leave room for partial continuation of imports of Russian gas. If that's the case, Russia will have some time to secure new markets and build new facilities.

In the unlikely event of a unified European response (Feanor's right about that), it would be possible for most of Europe to do without Russian gas immediately, though it would be very painful & expensive. Stocks are large enough that even without any measures to conserve gas in the short term, most European states could live on them for several months, allowing some time to increase imports & (to a limited extent) domestic production. In reality, a cessation of supply would lead to conservation measures.

A lot of gas is being used for marginal electricity generation, to cover peak loads that base load generators can't cope with. I think that in most countries, base load generation could be increased enough to make it possible to do without Russian gas for that purpose, though it wouldn't be easy. There'd probably have to be some other conservation measures. Varies from place to place: the UK could cope fine, for example.

The Baltics will get independence from Russian gas very soon. The new LNG terminal is about to start operations, IIRC. They might be in trouble if supplies were cut off tomorrow, though. I'm not sure what stocks they have, or the scope for transporting gas from further west until the terminal opens.

Oil can be bought from elsewhere, but it'd push up the price - while Russia would find that oil diverted from European customers might fetch a lower price.

The question is, what sort of cessation of supply are we talking about? Russia cutting it off to try to show the efficacy of the gas weapon? An EU & friends embargo on trade with Russia?

A reduction of European fuel imports from Russia to the minimum needed without major pain would still cause Russia huge losses. Remember, Europe buys the majority of Russia's exports, & most of that is fuel. Even with fuel exports continuing at the minimum rate, that's a big enough cut in export revenues to trigger a catastrophic slump.

Basically, Russia's energy weapon is a suicide belt.

 

[wittmanace]

I see the BBC has run the pictures Kiev claims is evidence of Russian troops in Ukraine. I thought Yamadaev was killed a few years ago? Also, is the HK wielding guy not a known pro Russian Ukrainian? I notice the BBC makes it clear they have not verified the pictures. Any info would be greatly appreciated, the alleged evidence is quite interesting.

Anyway, here is the link:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: What the 'Russian soldier' photos say

 

[Feanor]

I see the BBC has run the pictures Kiev claims is evidence of Russian troops in Ukraine. I thought Yamadaev was killed a few years ago? Also, is the HK wielding guy not a known pro Russian Ukrainian? I notice the BBC makes it clear they have not verified the pictures. Any info would be greatly appreciated, the alleged evidence is quite interesting.

Anyway, here is the link:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: What the 'Russian soldier' photos say

The short answer is no. There no evidence of swarms of Russian SpetzNaz in the East the way Kiev claims. We can safely assume that GRU/SVR/FSB agents are active in Eastern Ukraine, and the militia groups certainly have Russian contacts. But so far it looks mostly local and grass-root. Their "professionalism" is simply relative. The Ukrainian government and force-wielders are so ineffective, incapable, and unwilling, that by comparison these motivated militia look good. In actuality their operations look weak and ineffective by absolute standards. They weren't able to hold the Kramatorsk airfield, they weren't able to take over an MVD unit in Mariupol', when the police inside was willing to defend it, and they certainly haven't out-fought any Ukrainian military or paramilitary units. Their only combat "victory" is against some Right Sector radicals, who ran as soon as it turned into a firefight. The rest of their operations are relatively peaceful takeovers of government buildings, usually backed, or even executed by, giant crowds of upset locals, or blockades of military movements mostly executed by locals, with some coordination from the militia.

Basically, Russia's energy weapon is a suicide belt.

Look at recent history. Energy has really only been used as a weapon against Ukraine. It was used a bargaining chip in dealing with Belarus, but otherwise that's about it. I have a feeling that Russian elites know where their bread is buttered.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A Ukrainian Air Force An-30 photo-observer plane was fired on over Slavyansk.

u_96:

It also looks like the Slavyansk militia has ATGMs. A video I posted earlier showed a Ukrainian Army defector showing the militia how to work with the ATGM, briefly (the bulk of it was an interview with a militia representative). So this may simply refer to just that one ATGM. Then again given the looting of military facilities, and disarming of Ukrainian troops, I wouldn't be surprised if they have a few of them.

У бойцов Ð¡Ð¾Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² СлавÑнÑке поÑвилиÑÑŒ противотанковые ракетные комплекÑÑ‹

Another protest rocked Kharkov. Note the masked man throwing something explosive, then quickly walking away.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Провокаторы киевÑкой хунты на мирном митинге в Харькове.

In Dnepropetrovsk 8 people have already been handed over to the Ukrainian government as "green people" (Russian agents) for 10 000 dollars each. Looks like the witch hunt is gaining momentum.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Äíåïðîïåòðîâñêå çà ïîèìêó "çåëåíûõ ÷åëîâå÷êîâ" èç ÐÔ çàïëàòèëè 80 òûñÿ÷ äîëëàðîâ

The Ukrainian Army is also changing methods for sniper training which will reduce the time needed to train a sniper from 2 months to 2 weeks...

Why not 2 minutes?

Вооруженные Ñилы Украины Ñтали применÑÑ‚ÑŒ зарубежные методики огневой подготовки

Turchinov says that he thinks they should continue the "counter-terrorist operation" in Eastern Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/22apr2014/antiterror.html

Apparently the US State Department said they would "prefer" not to sanction Russia further? This sounds fairly strange given the US stance so far.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áåëûé äîì ÑØÀ íàäååòñÿ îáîéòèñü áåç íîâûõ ñàíêöèé ïðîòèâ ÐÔ, Ãîñäåï îïðîâåðã âîçìîæíîñòü "íàêàçàíèÿ" ëè÷íî Ïóòèíà

 

[swerve]

...
Look at recent history. Energy has really only been used as a weapon against Ukraine. It was used a bargaining chip in dealing with Belarus, but otherwise that's about it. I have a feeling that Russian elites know where their bread is buttered.

Me too. They know the limits to using energy as a weapon.

I can only imagine a cessation of supplies if things got very nasty indeed, so nasty that NATO Europe & Russia were on the verge of war, & Europe was scrambling like mad to replace Russian energy supplies. In that case, I expect customers would probably keep buying as much as possible for as long as possible (or until they ran out of storage capacity), to ease the transition.

I can't see Russia trying to use it as a weapon against W. & C. Europe as a whole. It'd just encourage a switch to alternative suppliers, & I expect the Russians in the business are very well aware of that, & eager to make sure Putin knows it.

 

[Twain]

Another pic from Ukraine about the russian presence

This is rather telling too

"Consider the recent example of Kharkiv, where pro-Russian protestors first attempted to occupy the city’s opera theater before realizing that it wasn’t City Hall. “Presumably, the local citizens of Kharkiv, if they wanted to take over City Hall, they would have gotten the right building to begin with,” Steven Pifer, director of the Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, told Defense One."

"Andriy Nurzhynskyy said that in many of the reports and user-uploaded photos that cross his desk, the “protestors” are armed with rifles like the Kalashnikov 103, a firearm that is unavailable in Ukraine."

The Science of Unmasking Russian Forces in Ukraine - Defense One

 

[Bolverik]

Another pic from Ukraine about the russian presence

Isn't it too short for RPG-30?

 

[Feanor]

Another pic from Ukraine about the russian presence

This is rather telling too

"Consider the recent example of Kharkiv, where pro-Russian protestors first attempted to occupy the city’s opera theater before realizing that it wasn’t City Hall. “Presumably, the local citizens of Kharkiv, if they wanted to take over City Hall, they would have gotten the right building to begin with,” Steven Pifer, director of the Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, told Defense One."

"Andriy Nurzhynskyy said that in many of the reports and user-uploaded photos that cross his desk, the “protestors” are armed with rifles like the Kalashnikov 103, a firearm that is unavailable in Ukraine."

The Science of Unmasking Russian Forces in Ukraine - Defense One

I've yet to see an AK-103 in Ukraine. And iirc the RPG thing was debunked on militaryphotos. It's an RPG -26 from the Soviet days.

Think about it, if you're sending your SpN units to Ukraine, why would you give them identifiably Russian weapons? Especially when Ukrainian SBU and MVD arsenals are open, and army weapon convoys are being looted.

Me too. They know the limits to using energy as a weapon.

I can only imagine a cessation of supplies if things got very nasty indeed, so nasty that NATO Europe & Russia were on the verge of war, & Europe was scrambling like mad to replace Russian energy supplies. In that case, I expect customers would probably keep buying as much as possible for as long as possible (or until they ran out of storage capacity), to ease the transition.

I can't see Russia trying to use it as a weapon against W. & C. Europe as a whole. It'd just encourage a switch to alternative suppliers, & I expect the Russians in the business are very well aware of that, & eager to make sure Putin knows it.

I don't think Russia will bring things to the verge of war with NATO as a whole. I don't think they'll get confrontational even with individual NATO members, save the US and Britain. I think they will draw a line and stand that line, because they see it as essential to their future on the international stage. They will make occasional sallies and forays, but overall the current Russian government is quite pliable to the West, provided they're given the right incentives and not pushed on certain issues. The problem is that they certainly are being pushed on some of those issues.