Ukranian Crisis

[nkvd]

@Logisticsguy
Look up Montreux Convention and article in link you provided is the usual run of the mill internet garbage-didn`t even finish reading it.That bad

 

[nkvd]

And by the way if say you are anticipating a conflict with Russia the last thing you would do is put a CSG in the Black Sea.It wont end well

 

[Feanor]

There has been a constant stream of rumors about Western private military involvement, but no real evidence. I'd disregard any sort of info on those lines for the time being.

EDIT: More Russian troops moving towards Rostov.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEuVLIbQTk#t=42"]Движение колонны роÑÑийÑких войÑк по траÑÑе - YouTube[/nomedia]

And south-west bound out of Kaluga (towards North-Eastern Ukraine).

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x-J6a6khKg"]11 марта 2014 года. КиевÑкое шоÑÑе между г. Калуга и г. ОбнинÑк - YouTube[/nomedia]

Russian sources are claiming that Russian private military contractors are involved in the operation in Crimea. I'll wait for concrete evidence.

Meanwhile the Kerch Coast Guard unit (Ukrainian) has moved to Mariupol', abandoning their facility in Crimea. This is not the first or the last Ukrainian military unit to leave Crimea.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/743385.html

And the Russian Duma is looking at passing a law that rehabilitates the Crimean Tatars as victims of Crimea repressions, and protects their current property holdings, should Crimea join the Russian Federation as a subject. The second half is what's important. That their personal property (land and houses primarily) will be protected.

http://newsru.com/russia/14mar2014/mironov.html

Some sources place the blame for the violent fight in Donetsk on the Euro-Maydan protesters, which according to this source were outnumbered but came armed with melee weapons, and were wearing face masks. The allegedly were the instigators of the fight.

http://newsru.com/world/14mar2014/ukr.html

 

[KiwiRob]

If that was the case, wouldn't losing the Russian votes in the Crimea ensure that the Ukraine won't vote to align with Russia? this has already been brought up in this thread, I think.

Art

There are about 1.7 million people of voting age in Crimea, about 1.1 million of them are Russian, they go but you're still going to have a very large pro Russia block in Ukraine, basically all the Eastern provinces and the strong pro Russian block in the South centered around Ukraines remaining Black Sea cities, Odessa and Nikolayev. I wouldn't be surprised if they also agitate and split away from Ukraine, especially Odessa and Nikolayev.

Which ever way you look at it Ukraine is screwed, if they don't let the Russian bits go they'll have a very hostile large minority within the country and if they do let them go they take pretty much all of Ukraines industrial capacity with them.

 

[plasmahawk]

Which ever way you look at it Ukraine is screwed, if they don't let the Russian bits go they'll have a very hostile large minority within the country and if they do let them go they take pretty much all of Ukraines industrial capacity with them.

i have a relative in the Just Russia party [regional leadership role] he scoffs at Crimea only... his line is Putin wants all of Ukraine and Crimea is but the start of an avalanche/snowball

but we will see how this goes...

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MicqZRnAkOg&feature=share&t=12m42s"]Lavrov: If Kosovo is a special case then Crimea is also - YouTube[/nomedia] interesting response from lavrov....

 

[Feanor]

There are about 1.7 million people of voting age in Crimea, about 1.1 million of them are Russian, they go but you're still going to have a very large pro Russia block in Ukraine, basically all the Eastern provinces and the strong pro Russian block in the South centered around Ukraines remaining Black Sea cities, Odessa and Nikolayev. I wouldn't be surprised if they also agitate and split away from Ukraine, especially Odessa and Nikolayev.

Which ever way you look at it Ukraine is screwed, if they don't let the Russian bits go they'll have a very hostile large minority within the country and if they do let them go they take pretty much all of Ukraines industrial capacity with them.

They're not just the Black Sea cities. Kharkov, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Lugansk are all inland, but still heavily Russian. Lugansk, Donetsk, and Kharkov especially. It will probably matter a lot what happens in Kharkov and Donetsk next. If they manage to organize and take over the local government the way they did in Crimea, it could mean the end of Ukraine in its current form. If they don't, it's likely that the whole thing will fizzle out.

 

[plasmahawk]

Theft of firearms rpgs and grenades from lvov armory
Ú-Íîâîñòè - Èñòî÷íèê: ñî ñêëàäîâ áîåïðèïàñîâ â Ëüâîâñêîé îáëàñòè ïîõèòèëè àâòîìàòû è ãðàíàòîìåòû

области похищено более 5000 автоматов Калашникова, 2741 пистолет Макарова, 123 ручных пулемета, а также 12 реактивных огнеметов "Шмель"

5000 assault rifles
2741 makarov pistols
123 machine guns
12 shmel rocket propelled incendiary launchers

Mq5b drone intercepted and forced to land by Russian forces ysing the Avtobaza - drone belonged to the 66th Reconnaissance Wing. This is the second drone brought down over crimea by "self defence" forces

Ðîññèéñêèé êîìïëåêñ «Àâòîáàçà» ïåðåõâàòèë è ïîñàäèë àìåðèêàíñêèé áåñïèëîòíèê MQ-5B íàä Êðûìîì

 

[Feanor]

I think the news about a US UAV being downed, or captured by Russian EW, are probably intentional misinformation.

Anyways, more images and videos of what's going in Crimea.

Pantsyr-S1 has been sighted there, and possibly, an S-300/400. Which would make sense, since Pantsyrs are part of S-400 regiments

u_96: "
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7449/13149945774_96e9c40c79_o.jpg

These are photos of actual Crimea self-defense forces. Possibly armed Crimean militias, but probably ex-military or paramilitaries, under the new regime in Crimea. Note the AR-based rifle on one of them. I wonder if this is the beginning of the Crimean Army that has been talked about.

u_96:

More Russian troops in Crimea. I'd say that some of those pics look similar what was earlier shown out of Balaclava. However I don't know where these are from specifically.

u_96:

A Russian Navy patrol boat, of the Grachonok type, was sighted off the coast of Crimea.

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/134723.html

And large quantities of heavy equipment were seen off-loading in Crimea, from a BDK. Namely 2A65 towed guns and trucks for them, and Uragan MLRS.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/744263.html

More of those guns, or maybe the same guns, were recently seen moving towards Kerch, along with a very large number of buses. The buses are empty, and civilian looking.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr46a8s1wSE"]Через Керчь переправлÑÑŽÑ‚ пушки и автобуÑÑ‹ - YouTube[/nomedia]

This video captures a large column of BTR-80 and 82A APCs moving around Crimea.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UmugOd0WVE#t=78"]колонна заÑнÑÑ‚Ð°Ñ Ð½Ð° Ñкрытую камеру... - YouTube[/nomedia]

Meanwhile the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affaits blamed the Ukrainian nationalists for the violence in Donetsk (though so far it looks like the pro-Russian protesters were at least as guilty) and ominously stated that Russia has the right to protect its citizens.

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/6F745B0774C71C9644257C9B00362EB6

 

[Haavarla]

Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group

I have my doubts about this News..

But anyway, where would NATO or US have the nearest based Drones from Crimea?

 

[plasmahawk]

Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group

I have my doubts about this News..

But anyway, where would NATO or US have the nearest based Drones from Crimea?

“Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria,” the statement claimed.....

i have been looking for a photo but found nothing as of yet... as close from the horses mouth as possible http://rostec.ru/en/news/4416 rostec has to play nice they have too many eu us partnerships in play and in contracts

 

[KiwiRob]

I have my doubts about this News..

But anyway, where would NATO or US have the nearest based Drones from Crimea?

It was a MQ-5B out of the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria according to Yahoo.

Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group

 

[Feanor]

Russian troop movements in Crimea are getting more and more pronounced.

Towed guns in Kerch.

bmpd -

Russian troops.

u_96:
u_96:
http://karelmilitary.livejournal.com/385512.html

S-400.

Блог "ВеÑтника ПВО" - Рвот и наш "Фаворит" или "Триумф" приÑоединилÑÑ Ðº вежливым людÑм

Uragan MLRS.

u_96:

And the Crimean Militias are gaining meat. They now number 8.7 thousand, and it looks like their numbers are increasing. They claim they bought 50 Tigr armored vehicles, but I think that's a lie (a simple attempt to cover up Russian military presence). Note how they have fire arms.

u_96:
u_96:

Meanwhile Crimeans that are serving in other Ukrainian Army units are returning home. What that means in practice is unclear. Maybe they've been massively dismissed. Or maybe a few of them have ended their service time and simply returning home for normal reasons.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/15/677201.html

And in Kharkov Right Sector fighters opened fire on pro-Russian protesters. They were captured and disarmed by local police. There are dead and wounded. Over 30 men overall were arrested.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/15/677187.html

 

[Comrade69]

I do not know politics nearly as well as some of you do or foreign military's.
But what are the chances US/NATO does get involved in all this?

And I been researching news story after news story but cant find the answer, what is Russia's mission for the Ukraine occupation?

 

[plasmahawk]

I do not know politics nearly as well as some of you do or foreign military's.
But what are the chances US/NATO does get involved in all this?

And I been researching news story after news story but cant find the answer, what is Russia's mission for the Ukraine occupation?

Well first off there isnt an occupation... see CNN below

Inside a pro-Russian rally in Ukraine - CNN.com Video

those are extremely occupied people...occupied with dancing

In all vids I have seen the masked soldiers respond if they do by saying "this is my land too....yes I am from here" meaning they are Crimean Ukrainians

also its not an occupation of Ukraine...and I hope it wont be Putin will hopefully use guile and if not I will be sorely disappointed by his stupidity.

I do not believe NATO or US will get involved directly or I hope not as it will lead to shooting so far the Ukrainian leadership has not shown mettle to interfere...but we will need to see what will happen after tomorrows referendum vote.

The weapons which have been both on site and added to Crimean and Russian forces in the last two weeks seal off the air and naval options around Crimea for NATO US.

my take...on next steps....Crimea is phase one of a chess game, the game is played using Ukrainian loyalists (anti Maidan anti current Kiev leadership)

The mission at this phase would be to ensure referendum vote in crimea. Russian units will replace the kozak and crimean self defense forces who have been training since early February and providing security since feb 27 28th...

i digress but they have been getting ready...

Once referendum occurs a full invitation will be offered to russian forces - who will take over all security operations....

The Crimean kozaks and crimeans those known currently as "occupiers aka Self Defence Force aka unlabelled soldiers" are likely to be shipped via road east through Kerch to Russia or via naval transports to Rostov.

Once assembled this "liberation" force will enter into eastern Ukraine via Russia. Likely also to now include the defected Crimean mil staff as well. Maybe with Yanukovich???

Crimean and anti maidan Ukrainians will then move west via donetsk harkov etc to Kiev.

while this happens unless Kiev orders an advance on Crimea tomorrow... the
pro Kiev Ukrainian forces are building up in the south on the Crimean isthmus which means eastern Ukraine will not have a heavy military presence. Thats why I am guessing pro Crimean forces are mining the isthmus because there are no plans to enter Ukraine from the south.

below are my anti maidan defection guesses for the eastern and southern forces aka the south operational command of ukraine

this depends on how effective maidan aka Kiev leadership has been at culling ranks and clean up in last six weeks.


17th Separate Armoured Brigade (Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) - defect
28th Guards Mechanised Brigade (Chornomorske, Odessa Oblast) - non defect
92nd Separate Mechanised Brigade s.Kluhoshyno-Bashkyrivka Chuguivsky district. Kharkiv region. - defect
93rd Separate Mechanised Brigade. smt.Cherkaske Novomoskovsk district. Dnipropetrovsk region. -defect
55th Artillery Brigade (Zaporizhzhya, Zaporozhye) - unknown
107th Rocket Launcher Regiment (Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast) - non defect
25th Airborne Brigade. smt.Hvardiyske. Dnipropetrovsk region. - defect
79th Airmobile Brigade (Nikolaev, Mykolaiv Oblast) - non defect
11th Army Aviation Regiment (Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast) -non defect
1039th Anti-Aircraft Rocket Regiment (smt.Hvardiyske. Dnipropetrovsk region.) -defect
3rd Separate special purpose Regiment. Kirovograd. Kirovohrad region. -non defect
50 Academic squad of special training. Kirovograd. Kirovohrad region. -non defect

 

[SolarWind]

This is an article which sheds a bit of light on what happened regarding the Ukraine around the time of the Russian revolution and civil war A Ukrainian in Paris: Symon Petliura, Nationalisms, and the Russian Civil War « makinghistoryatmacquarie If the Crimea has been part of Russia for two centuries. I don't normally cite wikipedia but this link gives a readable history of the Crimea. History of Crimea - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Of note that according to this Russian claims through occupation only go back to 1783 after Russia conquered it from the Ottoman empire.

Also, I have recently been suggested to read up on Stepan Bandera. Learning about this figure and organizations he lead, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which have relation to current events and rhetoric, may help understand it all better.

History News Network | Who Was Stepan Bandera?
A Fascist Hero in Democratic Kiev by Timothy Snyder | NYRblog | The New York Review of Books

 

[SolarWind]

I do not know politics nearly as well as some of you do or foreign military's.
But what are the chances US/NATO does get involved in all this?

And I been researching news story after news story but cant find the answer, what is Russia's mission for the Ukraine occupation?

If fighting breaks down between Nato/US and Russia, then who knows. US/Nato is stronger in conventional war, but both have nuclear weapons.

According to Russian media, their stated mission in Ukraine would be to protect Russian compatriots.
Apparently, according vz.ru, in Eastern Ukraine's city of Kharkiv, armed Ukrainian right-wing extremists have attacked, killed and wounded some anti-maidan protesters as the right-wing extremists hideout was discovered. One policeman was also severely wounded. About 30 of these right-wing extremists were eventually arrested and held at a police station.
Also regional administrative court in Kharkiv has forbidden any referendum about Kharkiv status, and threatened punishment ranging from warning to fines or imprisonment of up to 15 days for those who attempt to participate.

*

 

[plasmahawk]

as expected clarifications are starting to be said more "officially"... if the occupiers were known to be Crimeans perhaps KIEV would have pushed and pushed hard.

Aksenov: businessmen bought more than 50 self-defense of the Crimea "Tigers"
15/03/2014 19:45

In self-defense units in the Crimea made over 8000 people, said Sergei Aksenov. New Crimean army - is self-defense, which is in the process of legalization, receives form and weapons......Aksenov said that in the ranks of self-defense detachments no Russian Black Sea Fleet servicemen, and added that they were not involved in the blocking of Ukrainian military units.
The Prime Crimea noted that entrepreneurs helped purchase equipment, military equipment and form of self-defense. Money businessmen were purchased more than 50 "Tigers", reports ITAR-TASS .​

Google Translate

my ongoing assessment.... and I may be proven very wrong:

the risk was not knowing if these were indeed masked Russian troops - this prevented Kiev from charging in to stop an act of blatant secession due to fear of having to kill Russian troops and in turn starting a war with Russia...

Also Media and UN react much better to Russians are here... . yes they were but at the naval bases... loaning out equipment

If I were to guess the 60 trucks that arrived will not be staying long but will ferry out the Crimean self defense forces and able bodied Berkut

 

[surpreme]

If fighting breaks down between Nato/US and Russia, then who knows. US/Nato is stronger in conventional war, but both have nuclear weapons.

According to Russian media, their stated mission in Ukraine would be to protect Russian compatriots.
Apparently, according vz.ru, in Eastern Ukraine's city of Kharkiv, armed Ukrainian right-wing extremists have attacked, killed and wounded some anti-maidan protesters as the right-wing extremists hideout was discovered. One policeman was also severely wounded. About 30 of these right-wing extremists were eventually arrested and held at a police station.
Also regional administrative court in Kharkiv has forbidden any referendum about Kharkiv status, and threatened punishment ranging from warning to fines or imprisonment of up to 15 days for those who attempt to participate.

*

If US/Nato get involved it won't be a conventional warfare because Russia as bad it look is rebuilding its Army and will give US/NATO hell Russia will lose but US/NATO will pay a price that will hurt economics around the world. The cost of conventional war with Russia will be huge. Even if US/Nato don't have a nuclear war there will be heavy damage to equipment and personnel in Europe.

 

[mAIOR]

Interesting interview to Vasyl Cherepanin director of the Kiev center of visual culture and editor of the Ukranian version of the newspaper Political Critics.

[Europe Solidaire Sans Frontières] Maidan (Ukraine): “It was a real revolution”

Here is a small abstract:

In this article, the interviewee provides some insight on what happened in the Maidan square and the role that the several political organizations had in the protests.
He begins to explain that the role of the Nazi party Svoboda was minor in the middle of all the protests. What gave them more visibility was the fact that they were the first parliamentary group to join the protests.

Then he proceeds to explain the intervention of the unions in the whole process. According to the interviewee the official (state) unions were not present whereas the independent union was. This independent union tried to organize a massive strike to paralyze the Ukrainian Industry which would help increase the pressure on the government. He explains the failure to organize a massive strike to the hold of the Oligarchs over the Ukrainian economy. The service sector however managed to organize some limited strikes.


He proceeds to provide some historical insight on the whole Ukrainian situation through the failed proposal to recognize Russian as the official language and provides his insight on the Crimean situation as a way of Russian to reinforce internally by discrediting political alternatives.


Finally he proceeds to criticize Europe and the west for their slowness in responding to the whole crisis and shows some surprise on the lack of support by European population.

Interesting article alone for the different view in my opinion. Speaking as an European, the lack of support is because we never got a clear picture on what is going on. I have an higher than usual interest in the matter and it is very hard for me to make heads from tails over this whole matter. It is a bit scary to think that nowadays, with internet and the massive amount of information available, how hard it is to find independent on site views on the whole situation. Quite tight information control I say.

EDIT: Ah, as further information, the new government is hell bent on applying austerity measures. In the current frail political situation throughout all of Europe, the Ukrainian crisis seems to not worry European governments so much as to change their views on austerity and the way to loan money. So not to open a precedent for other countries being crushed by these measures. Seems like a nice recipe for loosing any kind of support they might have. If anything they might end up pushing Ukraine to the hands of the Russians.

 

[Blackshoe]

“Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria,” the statement claimed...

Good sign you're dealing with misinformation: they called it a "brigade", which, to my knowledge, the USAF/USAAC/USAAF has NEVER called an aviation unit. I don't even know think the US Army calls its flying units brigades (brigade is the headquarters units); Gremlin could confirm this, though.

Likewise, the 66th isn't a flying squadron, and hasn't been since 1970. It's a support group.

Methinks someone needs to update their information cards for preparing propaganda.