Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

I do not suppose the Ukraine has any SF or agents which could potentially take that train line out of serious at a key point in time? Such an event could trigger a significant recalculation on what could or should happen.

Well that was one echelon, with ~12 tanks and a couple of support vehicles. So even if they did, how much effect would it have? And what effect would a failed attempt have, with Ukrainians responsible?

But an even better question is this. Which direction would they recalculate in? Would it cause Russia to back off, or step up? It would be a very risky move at best, even if Ukraine could pull it off which is questionable.

But like I said what worries me is the second video. Trains are used to move military units to and from places all the time. There are buckets of footage on youtube of random train echelons with troops. However they don't clog up a major highway with a very large number of military vehicles for fun.

This movement might be a response to the Ukrainian "exercises" which involve a mech-brigade with T-64BV tanks. Currently the heaviest equipment I've spotted inside Crimea is some Grad MLRS (on Kamaz chassis) and some BTR-82As. I've heard (without evidence) of 2S3 SP Arty. This could be the response.

Apparently 8 of the BDKs are currently at sea in the Black Sea. None are left in the Mediterranean. They're probably being utilized to bring troops into Crimea.

http://navy-korabel.livejournal.com/58857.html

 

[AnthonyB]

Emphasis mine.

Clearly not. Russia has the big nuclear stick, and certainly won't let Turkey put any "polite people" in Crimea.

Practically speaking the standard seems to be feasibility. When the Chechens wanted out, they were the first. A trial run so to speak. Other minorities also were thinking about wider autonomy or secession in Russia back then. After Yeltsin reduced Chechnya to rubble in the First Chechen War, the rest decided independence wasn't worth the price. Putin of course put all questions to rest with the Second Chechen War, which annulled the agreements at the end of the first one.

So in this case Crimea can get it's independence, or indeed it's membership in the Russian Federation, not only because it has a majority of Russian population, and historic ties, but also because Russia is able and willing to deploy necessary troops to make it happen. Troops aren't the only factor, but they're a major one (money is another one).

Remember sovereignty and self-determination are essentially contradictory clauses of the UN charter. So in practice, expedience takes precedence.

Surely Ukraine is different to Chechnya, firstly its has a far longer recognized sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Secondly I'm not sure how to say this but IMHO Ukrainians are more attractive to the western media and therefore to western public opinion then Chechens

If Russia breaches Ukrainian territorial integrity, it will drive the Poles and Balts into an extremely defensive posture. Russia will face a very hostile periphery of very concerned neighbours. NATO will likely have to respond to by making sure these countries feel secure from the Russia.

 

[plasmahawk]

...
If Russia breaches Ukrainian territorial integrity, it will drive the Poles and Balts into an extremely defensive posture. Russia will face a very hostile periphery of very concerned neighbours. NATO will likely have to respond to by making sure these countries feel secure from the Russia.

My thoughts..
March 16th..
As soon as the referendum happens on the 16th Russian heavy MBTs BTRs MLRS units will move in via Kerch and deploy along the northern isthmus.

regarding train with tanks in rostov. (need someone to offer me a GEOINT job )

looking at video I was able to identify the video location:

the direction of the train with tanks shown in video are going towards the airbase. I am guessing for unloading. However, it is in the opposite direction of Crimea. Perhaps to load additional air transported vehicles. But then why not fly them in directly..

https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Ai...23,14z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x25057c3011698c0c

Tank crossing is here: https://www.google.ca/maps/@47.2600579,39.6286665,17z

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B3PcG07gXM#t=168

 

[Feanor]

Surely Ukraine is different to Chechnya, firstly its has a far longer recognized sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Secondly I'm not sure how to say this but IMHO Ukrainians are more attractive to the western media and therefore to western public opinion then Chechens

If Russia breaches Ukrainian territorial integrity, it will drive the Poles and Balts into an extremely defensive posture. Russia will face a very hostile periphery of very concerned neighbours. NATO will likely have to respond to by making sure these countries feel secure from the Russia.

Ukraine is very different from Chechnya, you're right on that count. Instead of being rapidly occupied and reduced by Russian troops, Putin has to tip-toe around an unofficial occupation of just one province. And the Western response looks a lot more serious then the vague rumblings of disapproval over the Chechen Wars.

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile the new government has either already or is in the process of attaching political officers to military unit commands with the ability to remove the CO from power, if he should fail to act.

Военный дневник Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‡ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾ - Политуполномоченные Майдана Ñмогут отÑтранÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ñ Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¶Ð½Ð¾Ñти командиров ВС Украины за нелоÑльноÑÑ‚ÑŒ

And "masked men" have arrested a large number of government officials from the old regime, without charges, or arrest warrants. There are other reports of people who are being persecuted for their political views, but nothing specific.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/12/676745.html

Maydan has also been selling "protection". For a 25 000 dollar fee, they offer two permanent security guards with sticks. For less, you can get a sticker with a number to call. Even if they're genuine security, not a racket, this still says some bad things about what's going on there right now.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1472933.html

Putin expressed doubt that Ukrainian secession from the USSR was legitimate to begin with.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí óñîìíèëñÿ â çàêîííîñòè âûõîäà Óêðàèíû èç ÑÑÑÐ, ñîîáùèë ýêñ-ãëàâà Ìåäæëèñà êðûìñêèõ òàòàð

And Kharkov protesters are pushing for a referendum similar to the original Crimean referendum. They want wide autonomy inside Ukraine, wider then what Crimea had before this crisis.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/12/676564.html

Russian troops have taken the airfield at Dzhankoe, and are setting up a Russian helo unit there. Airfield support units are moving there.

Вооруженные Ñилы Ð*оÑÑии начали обуÑтраивать бывший аÑродром Ð’ Джанкое

And a brand new EW unit, the Leer, was spotted in Crimea, arriving there by ferry from Kerch.

Ð’ Крыму была замечена Ð½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐ¹ÑˆÐ°Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑˆÐ¸Ð½Ð° радиоÑлектронной борьбы Леер-2
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBkqkJfZxTE"]Russian army military electronic warfare vehicles arrives in Crimea Ukraine through Kerch ferry - YouTube[/nomedia]

And only 4 military units in Crimea (out of 34) are still loyal to the old government. The rest have either sworn loyalty to Crimea (very few, I think) or have declared neutrality (probably the majority).

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/12/676777.html

 

[Klaus]

Did any European politicians give details on what kind of economic sanctions they plan to impose on Russia if no agreement is reached? I've only heard that the third step in their chain of sanctions would "concern trade with Russia".
Today German newspaper FAZ reports that the German economy is urging the government to not impose any kind of economic sanctions, but Merkel seems to be convinced that such a move would force Russia to give up the annexion of Crimea.

To me all these speculations about trade restrictions sound ridiculous. Russia has already risked much by de-facto occupying Crimea. They won't give it up that easily. Besides that restricting trade would also hit the European economies that are currently recovering from stagnation/recession. If the EU countries wanted to solve that problem in a diplomatic way they shouldn't have supported the new Ukrainian government in such a rash way and without criticising the latters coup d'etat.

 

[John Fedup]

Did any European politicians give details on what kind of economic sanctions they plan to impose on Russia if no agreement is reached?

I do not believe France would be too anxious to cancel delivery on two Mistral amphibious ships to Russia.

 

[RobWilliams]

Especially considering work on Mistral #1 Vladivostok (I think was the name) was pulled from Russian to French yards to keep the build schedule on track

 

[Haavarla]

Did any European politicians give details on what kind of economic sanctions they plan to impose on Russia if no agreement is reached? I've only heard that the third step in their chain of sanctions would "concern trade with Russia".
Today German newspaper FAZ reports that the German economy is urging the government to not impose any kind of economic sanctions, but Merkel seems to be convinced that such a move would force Russia to give up the annexion of Crimea.

To me all these speculations about trade restrictions sound ridiculous. Russia has already risked much by de-facto occupying Crimea. They won't give it up that easily. Besides that restricting trade would also hit the European economies that are currently recovering from stagnation/recession. If the EU countries wanted to solve that problem in a diplomatic way they shouldn't have supported the new Ukrainian government in such a rash way and without criticising the latters coup d'etat.

There is also another side of this that need to be looked at..
How has/will the energy market react to this?

The Oil/gass prices will surly rise and thus increase Income regardless to any European pressure.
I for one do not see EU stop the gass import, cause that would look very bad for the ordinary Citizens of gass depended EU..

Could it be that this is a Cold calculation from the Russian side, just saying?

 

[the concerned]

I wonder if the Crimean government have thought about this properly. Because if on Monday after the votes have come in and the people elect to join Russia (I know that this I not recognised by the west and Ukraine) then that mans they are effectively cutting themselves out of a job because the Russian federation already has a government and there is no way in hell Putin is going to accept a private force or government swaying his control.

 

[alexkvaskov]

I wonder if the Crimean government have thought about this properly. Because if on Monday after the votes have come in and the people elect to join Russia (I know that this I not recognised by the west and Ukraine) then that mans they are effectively cutting themselves out of a job because the Russian federation already has a government and there is no way in hell Putin is going to accept a private force or government swaying his control.

Not neccesarily; look to Chechnya where they were willing and maybe even glad to delegate authority to local strongmen.

 

[gazzzwp]

Not neccesarily; look to Chechnya where they were willing and maybe even glad to delegate authority to local strongmen.

Prediction:

After Sunday's vote which will be overwhelmingly in favour of the Russian Federation the Russian forces will clear the remaining pockets of Ukranian occupation within the Crimea.

There will be minor skirmishes which could spiral unless restraint is exercised.

The best move would be for the remaining Ukrainian loyalists to evacuate the Crimean region. The question then is what will the West's response be? Ecomomic sanctions most certainly.

I still don't see any major military response on the cards by NATO.

 

[chris]

I have a question as well and I hope that some member with better insight in the situation can answer. I have little knowledge in Ukrainian demographics and politics and the current situation is not helpful in finding some clues.

Let's forget about the Crimean referendum. What about the next Ukrainian elections. Is there a chance that those elections end with a pro-Russian party as the winner? And before you tell me that there is no chance after all that happened till now, let me explain my reasoning.

Crimea will probably join Russia. That means increased income for ordinary people that will start getting the Russian minimum wage, while the rest of Ukraine under IMF will probably see extreme reductions in their income. A party with a "forget the west and their austerity, Russia is our friend" banner could do very well, especially if the pro-Western camp is divided among overambitious leaders.

 

[2007yellow430]

I have a question as well and I hope that some member with better insight in the situation can answer. I have little knowledge in Ukrainian demographics and politics and the current situation is not helpful in finding some clues.

Let's forget about the Crimean referendum. What about the next Ukrainian elections. Is there a chance that those elections end with a pro-Russian party as the winner? And before you tell me that there is no chance after all that happened till now, let me explain my reasoning.

Crimea will probably join Russia. That means increased income for ordinary people that will start getting the Russian minimum wage, while the rest of Ukraine under IMF will probably see extreme reductions in their income. A party with a "forget the west and their austerity, Russia is our friend" banner could do very well, especially if the pro-Western camp is divided among overambitious leaders.

If that was the case, wouldn't losing the Russian votes in the Crimea ensure that the Ukraine won't vote to align with Russia? this has already been brought up in this thread, I think.

Art

 

[chris]

If that was the case, wouldn't losing the Russian votes in the Crimea ensure that the Ukraine won't vote to align with Russia? this has already been brought up in this thread, I think.

Art

I'm not talking about minorities and nationalities. I'm talking about people voting about their pockets, especially when we are talking about incomes way bellow any poverty lines in nearby countries.

 

[SolarWind]

I'm not talking about minorities and nationalities. I'm talking about people voting about their pockets, especially when we are talking about incomes way bellow any poverty lines in nearby countries.

I think most ethnic Ukrainians take their independence very dearly and would be willing to endure short term economic turmoil and low income. It's good to remember that they can at the very least grow enough food to feed themselves. However, ethnic Russians in Ukraine may see things differently. Even though Crimea will likely split away, southern and eastern regions would still command significant electorate. Maidan would likely not accept a new pro-Russian president if one were elected. However, chances of pro-Russia president being elected are much lower now because of Crimea.

 

[Feanor]

The best move would be for the remaining Ukrainian loyalists to evacuate the Crimean region. The question then is what will the West's response be? Ecomomic sanctions most certainly.

They're already leaving, with what appears to be the blessing of the Russian troops.

I wonder if the Crimean government have thought about this properly. Because if on Monday after the votes have come in and the people elect to join Russia (I know that this I not recognised by the west and Ukraine) then that mans they are effectively cutting themselves out of a job because the Russian federation already has a government and there is no way in hell Putin is going to accept a private force or government swaying his control.

Russia has since the imperial days practiced a form of annexation that works very well. They give the local leadership local control, provided that they comply with the federals laws in major ways. The local leadership is then happy to join, because it only strengthens and protects their seats of power. This is one of the reasons why so many small countries back in the day voluntarily joined the Russian Empire. This is why S. Ossetia and Abkhazia petitioned the Duma for annexation repeatedly.

I have a question as well and I hope that some member with better insight in the situation can answer. I have little knowledge in Ukrainian demographics and politics and the current situation is not helpful in finding some clues.

Let's forget about the Crimean referendum. What about the next Ukrainian elections. Is there a chance that those elections end with a pro-Russian party as the winner? And before you tell me that there is no chance after all that happened till now, let me explain my reasoning.

Crimea will probably join Russia. That means increased income for ordinary people that will start getting the Russian minimum wage, while the rest of Ukraine under IMF will probably see extreme reductions in their income. A party with a "forget the west and their austerity, Russia is our friend" banner could do very well, especially if the pro-Western camp is divided among overambitious leaders.

I don't think the new government will take the IMF deal. Yanukovich veered away from EU membership because of the destructive conditions attached to it. Even that moron knew better. The new government is nationalist, and I doubt they will go that way. I also don't know which way the election goes, and I'm not sure there will be a Ukraine-wide election. The situation in Kharkov is getting serious. And Lugansk and Donetsk are taking their cues from Kharkov, which is in many ways the eastern capital of Ukraine.

 

[Feanor]

The Russian military has launched another major exercise on polygons near Ukraine. It feels like an excuse to keep large numbers of troops on high alert, and in the field. The first video is of preparations of airdropping 1500 VDV troopers on 17 Il-76s. The second video is a general video about the exercises. The exercises are expected to last until the end of March.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. Ð£Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² приграничье
u_96:

At the Dzhankoy airfield is set up a Russian medical facility, and additional troops are concentrating there. Russian army trucks were also seen moving what appeared to be Ukrainian Coast Guard boats, towards the sea. A crane was seen lowering the boats.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/force/4862-1.html

More Ukrainian units are moving in Odessa, including a btln of S-300s, and helos.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3243142.html

And several thousand Ukrainian troops are participating in a large scale exercise.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/force/4862-1.html

A couple of banks in Kiev have been captured by masked men, who claim to be Euro-Maydan members. The police arrested them eventually, after negotiations between other Euro-Maydan fighters, and these men, who claim to be Euro-Maydan self-defense forces. The men had AKs and Makarov hand guns. All were afterwards released. There have been other attacks on businesses and government offices, by "Euro-Maydan fighters". The incidents go beyond Kiev, and are even occurring in Western Ukraine. Often the police refuse to respond to calls where masked men are mentioned.

*
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ПрекраÑное

The National Guard talked about earlier, has been formed and it may receive personnel from the MVD.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. ПринÑÑ‚ закон о Ðациональной Гвардии

The situation in Donetsk is escalating with one dead and 17 wounded, in a massive fight between Euro-Maydan protesters, and pro-Russian protesters. The police stood by and observed, not stopping the violence.

http://newsru.com/world/13mar2014/meetings.html

10-15 thousand protesters in Kharkov demanded that Kharkov hold a similar referendum. However the regional government refused. The leader of the local pro-Russian group has been arrested.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1474850.html

The OSCE is sending 100 observers to Ukraine, Russia recommends sending them to Crimea.

http://newsru.com/world/13mar2014/obse.html

6 Su-27 fighters (in addition to the four already there) and 3 transport planes have been deployed to Belarus, in response to NATO deployments in Poland.

http://newsru.com/world/13mar2014/exploring.html

Also the head of the Crimean Tatars had a one-on-one conversation with Putin. The result seems to be that they will maintain neutrality and refrain from provocations, but refuse to give up recognition of the Kiev government.

http://newsru.com/russia/13mar2014/crimeantatars.html

According to pre-referendum questioners, over 80% of Crimeans want to leave Ukraine.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1474745.html

 

[alexkvaskov]

A good video of the Flankers arriving in Belarus, with heavy air-to-air loads.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEOK7yW4lPU"]РоÑÑийÑкие Су-27 перебазированы на аÑродромБобруйÑк - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[LogisticsGuy]

Does anyone know if this is true? It seems unlikely. There are no links.

CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names » The Ukrainian Pendulum » Print

"Two Invasions
The Ukrainian Pendulum
by ISRAEL SHAMIR

The stakes are high in the Ukraine: after the coup, as Crimea and Donbas asserted their right to self determination, American and Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory, both under cover.

The American soldiers are “military advisors”, ostensibly members of Blackwater private army (renamed Academi); a few hundred of them patrol Kiev while others try to suppress the revolt in Donetsk. Officially, they were invited by the new West-installed regime. They are the spearhead of the US invasion attempting to prop up the regime and break down all resistance. They have already bloodied their hands in Donetsk.

Besides, the Pentagon has doubled the number of US fighter jets on a NATO air patrol mission in the Baltics; the US air carrier entered the Black Sea, some US Marines reportedly landed in Lvov “as a part of pre-planned manoeuvres”.