The Indonesian Army

[koxinga]

The Dutch but also the German parliaments may block the deal. Netherlands has a very special relation with Indonesia, of course, but even Germany could say 'no' if they see the situation in Papua as too critical. German government one or two months ago okay'ed the sale of Leopard 2 to Saudi Arabia, but that doesn't mean anything. They could okay the deal with the Saudis, but block the deal with Indonesia, even though the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is much graver than in Indonesia. That's the way politics works, it has nothing to do with common sense, but political gains. And the Saudi Arabian gov'ment is much more important to the Germans than the Indonesian gov'ment.

In another matter, the Ukraine threw their hat into the ring as well a couple of days ago. A Ukrainian sales manager gave an interview to a big Indonesian magazine and said his company was offering the T-64BM Bulat to Indonesia (price would be slightly cheaper than the 2nd-hand Leopard 2's).
This might be plan C if every Leopard 2 seller says no.

With the economy the way it is now, everyone is trying to sell to Indonesia. They are attracted by the smell of money like flies to I won't be surprised if the South Koreans and Russians have made similar pitches. Kaman for example have made a pitch for the ex-RAN SH-2(G)s.

I don't see them going for the T-64B. At the beginning of this thread, it was mentioned that TNI-AD had their minds set of Leopards for a long time. I don't think it has changed.

 

[Ananda]

The Dutch but also the German parliaments may block the deal. Netherlands has a very special relation with Indonesia, of course, but even Germany could say 'no' if they see the situation in Papua as too critical. German government one or two months ago okay'ed the sale of Leopard 2 to Saudi Arabia, but that doesn't mean anything. They could okay the deal with the Saudis, but block the deal with Indonesia, even though the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is much graver than in Indonesia. That's the way politics works, it has nothing to do with common sense, but political gains. And the Saudi Arabian gov'ment is much more important to the Germans than the Indonesian gov'ment.

True,anything could happen. But if you see in the mid 90's, the German still conduct military or dual technology cooperation with Indonesia when US, and some smaller Euro country like Sweden, Dutch already say they will block military cooperation with Indonesia. Only when East Timor situations getting out of hand that the German decided to freeze the cooperation.

Euro Country like French, Spain and German are some of the earliest Euro country that reopen military or dual technology cooperation with Indonesia on the first half of last decade. All I said is that considering the Politics, German, French, and Spain are "relatively" more realiable for military cooperation compared to Dutch in the eyes of Indonesian gov't.

I won't be surprised if the South Koreans and Russians have made similar pitches. Kaman for example have made a pitch for the ex-RAN SH-2(G)s.

Are you already sure that the Kaman's offered are from the ex (rejected) RAN Seasprite ? So far I haven't found confirmation whether this is new build, or ex RAN which been keept in Kaman Inventory.

 

[DavidDCM]

With the economy the way it is now, everyone is trying to sell to Indonesia. They are attracted by the smell of money like flies to I won't be surprised if the South Koreans and Russians have made similar pitches. Kaman for example have made a pitch for the ex-RAN SH-2(G)s.

I don't see them going for the T-64B. At the beginning of this thread, it was mentioned that TNI-AD had their minds set of Leopards for a long time. I don't think it has changed.

I agree. Leopard 2 definitely seems Indonesia's favourite.

But if the politics should deny these plans than they have to look for other ways (if they do not want to scrap the project).

I assume the reason why the Ukraine offered the T-64 Bulat is because it's price is similar to a 2nd hand Leopard 2A4.
The more advanced Oplot is significantly more expensive (judging from the recently cancelled Thai project).

Korean K1 or K2, or Russian T-90 would also be much more expensive. Maybe the Russians could offer some modernized T-72 for less money.

 

[koxinga]

Are you already sure that the Kaman's offered are from the ex (rejected) RAN Seasprite ? So far I haven't found confirmation whether this is new build, or ex RAN which been keept in Kaman Inventory.

No facts if they are the ex-RAN birds but the quoted number of 11 is a strong indicator. Kaman are also pressured to sell these. In any case, there are no new built Sea Sprites. All Sea Sprites are rebuilt from ex-USN stocks.

The costs are reasonable. The ex-RAN birds are going for USD $18 million as is, with all their existing equipment (ASW) or USD $10 million for a stripped out one.

Farnborough 2010: Kaman offers low-cost ASW package - News - Shephard
TNI-AL pertimbangkan tawaran helikopter antikapal selam AS - AntaraNews.com

 

[koxinga]

I assume the reason why the Ukraine offered the T-64 Bulat is because it's price is similar to a 2nd hand Leopard 2A4.

We have to consider, among other things, the ToT factor. I think the Leopard 2A6 is favoured on capability and cost (due to ex-stock factor) now simply because it is one of the best tanks (I hate this phrase) at this price range. So much so that they may be prepared to set aside ToT requirements.

On the other hand, assuming that they are not able to get the Leopards due to political factors, I don't see them getting the Bulat or Russian equivalents either even if price is good and full ToT is offered. This is because the technology offered would not be significantly 'better' than the opposition. I would expect them to pay more and go for the South Korea K-series instead and get full access to the K2 PIP technologies.

Anyway, this is just a bunch of random horse shit from me. Just ignore if you disagreed.

 

[Ananda]

On the other hand, assuming that they are not able to get the Leopards due to political factors, I don't see them getting the Bulat or Russian equivalents either even if price is good and full ToT is offered. This is because the technology offered would not be significantly 'better' than the opposition. I would expect them to pay more and go for the South Korea K-series instead and get full access to the K2 PIP technologies.

Anyway, this is just a bunch of random horse shit from me. Just ignore if you disagreed.

K2 ? Isn't what the Korean offer is K1A1 ? Anyway I do agree that they (Indonesia Min-Def) will preferred Western Technologies for the Army, simply because the Army more familiar with western armaments. Even when in the 60's at the hight of Soekarno era, where the Navy and the Air-Force were heavy with Warsaw Pact armament, the Army mostly still using Western armament. The Army tanks for one thing mostly consists of M3 Stuart and AMX 13 (which although majority of present AMX 13 comes at Soeharto era, in the 60's the Army already begin to get AMX 13).

If you see ground assets that come from east block in the 60's like PT-76, BTR-50, 122 mm How, Multiple Rocket launchers, mostly used by the Marines and not the Army. Anyway, the Marines perhaps comfortable with BMP 3, but I don't think the Army more keen to get Russian Armament.

There's plenty bargain armament in Europe right now. Heck if the US now willing to give more advanced F-16, Kaman Seasprite ASW Chopper, they might even perhaps willing to give M1A1 . Off course no bargain/surplus M1A1 available, so this just my blabbering thought .

Btw, ToT, it's a good concept, but so far is still bigger in talk and realisation. The Chairman of Pindad once said, he does not believe ToT will come on the platter, he believe that they have to grab the Technology and not wait for someone else to offer. Still ROK so far show that they perhaps more incline to give real ToT than other potential partner. The Russian ? Well India already agree for 1000+ T-90, is it at the moment India already got the technology of T-90 as promised ? Very debatable.

 

[Volod]

I
I assume the reason why the Ukraine offered the T-64 Bulat is because it's price is similar to a 2nd hand Leopard 2A4.
The more advanced Oplot is significantly more expensive (judging from the recently cancelled Thai project).

Korean K1 or K2, or Russian T-90 would also be much more expensive. Maybe the Russians could offer some modernized T-72 for less money.

Sorry, but contract for the supply of Ukrainian tanks in Thailand is valid
Malіsheva plant began preparing for mass production

As fo Т-72, BM Bulat at present time has technical level equal T-90, but I think that the price of the Indonesian proposal includes an upgrade to the level of T-90S

 

[koxinga]

K2 ? Isn't what the Korean offer is K1A1 ?

K1A1 is the offer. But for ToT, it would make sense to get the K2 PIP technologies.

 

[DavidDCM]

Ukraine offered ToT to Indonesia for the Bulat.

Whatever route Indonesia takes, I hope they make local trials before making a decision. The army has no experience with heavy combat vehicles. The AMX-13 weighs about 15 tons. The Leopars 2 weighs between 50 and 65 tons, depending on the version. K1A1 more than 50 tons. The T-64 Bulat weighs 45 tons.
I am not sure if the infrastructural network beyond Java can sustain the operation of such heavy vehicles. Singapore and Malaysia already use tanks, but Singapore and the Malay peninsula have a much more developed infrastructure than even Java. Let's not talk about Kalimantan or Sumatra.

 

[Volod]

Ukraine has proposed not only tanks, but the localization of their production and technology transfer too
The absence of a "tanks' culture" in Indonesia - it is a problem. But this problem can be solved.
But the infrastructure is poorly developed indeed. In addition, Indonesia is an island state. Perhaps it will interest in Landing Craft Air Cushion as complex for operation with tank units.

 

[Ananda]

Ukraine has proposed not only tanks, but the localization of their production and technology transfer too

Ukraine offered ToT to Indonesia for the Bulat.

Leo-2 basically is a new comer in the Indonesian MBT debate. Before the talk on MBT more to either K1A1 or T-90S. However with sudden surplus of Nato hardware, the talk of Leo 2 is heighten.

From Pindad it self they don't plan for MBT production thus they seems not really intent for getting ToT on MBT. Pindad intent to produce IFV. Thus the talk of K1A1 is related for getting technology and co-production of K-21. Pindad seems think that if they capable of manufacturing armored Vehicles, wheeled (Anoa) and tracked (IFV), it's still in line with their short and mid term plan. In fact MBT production is not in their plan up until 2020. Thus I don't know if getting ToT for MBT is really a decision matter for choosing MBT.

The weight of Leo2 or K1A1 or other western style MBT also become some concern from the side that proposed eastern style MBT (from Russia, Ukraine, China). They argue with the average western style MBT weight 50-60+ tons while eastern style MBT weight around 40+ ton, it's more appropriate based on Indonesia's infrastructure to get Eastern Style MBT rather than Western style MBT.

For one thing only 4 Makasar class LPD that have capabilities to transport western style MBT, while the 12 ex-East German Frosch LST and 6 South Korean build Tacoma LST (which are the true back bone of TNI sea lift asset) still can handle Eastern Type MBT like T-90. As the Archipelago nation, what your Sea Lift capable to transport of, should become one of the considerations.

Anyway, for short, there's a lot of consideration must be taken before any of the proposed MBT can be decided, but I do believe at least for MBT, the ToT considerations is not really weight in, but other ToT that can be given as result of certain MBT deal (for IFV for example) can be more of considerations.

 

[Volod]

Ukraine can to offer and supply LCAC capable of carrying tanks and a wide range of RCWS for the IFV and the engines for it.

 

[Ananda]

Ukraine can to offer and supply LCAC capable of carrying tanks and a wide range of RCWS for the IFV and the engines for it.

If you see koxinga post no 181 in this thread, you'll see a prototype of Pindad tracked APC/IFV that depend from what you look can be base on BMP-2 or Marder. On the last visit of German President recently to Jakarta, there's also talked between Min-def with Rheinmetal on possible join/cooperation for ground asset production.

In short, with Asian economics seems on better side this days, and increasing military procurement from the region, anything can happen and seems now it's a buyer market. In theory Indonesia can asked for better deal including ToT, but it's also depends on the readiness of Local industry to absorb and long term commonality with existing assets (at least in my opinion) for better logistics maintenance.

One thing for sure, Ukraine can offer better pricing than the Germans, but still the Germans have longer experience with Indonesian.

Btw:
Found this on local forum. seems it's taken recently, thus indicated the sole 155mm Singapore made Fh-2000 still in active uses.

 

[Volod]

Yes, I know this vehicle.
By the way, another possible way of cooperation - wheeled heavy IFV
I mean the Ukrainian version BMP-64-K

As for the Germans, of course they have a longer experience.
but as a Siemens partner I know that they often lack the flexibility and efficiency in decision making.
And of course, the price Ukraine has to offer on the verge of profitability, as is advantageous for us in terms of production

 

[koxinga]

Btw:
Found this on local forum. seems it's taken recently, thus indicated the sole 155mm Singapore made Fh-2000 still in active uses.

Excellent photo!

As for the lack of trials, it is a concern. The only similar exception was Singapore's purchase of their Leopards, which came without local trials as well. I think there is nothing left to discuss on this topic except to wait for the outcome.

I have been to Indonesia and the rural areas. It's either flat plains or hilly terrain due to the volcanoes.

 

[DavidDCM]

The island-to-island mobility is not an issue. This is rooted in the Indonesian defence doctrine. They have regional units, which are not meant to fight on other islands. A tank battalion from Java will not fight on Kalimantan, a tank battalion from Kalimantan will not fight on Java. They stay where they are, so there is no need for sealifting capacities.

The only exception are the two tank battalions from "Kostrad", the strategic reserve unit of the Indonesian army. They are stationed on Java, but they are sent wherever they are needed. For this reason, they have the lightest equipment of all (the Scorpion 90). They can even be airlifted.

Currently it is like this: Regional tank battalions have heavier vehicles (AMX-13), Kostrad tank battalions have lighter vehicles (Scorpion 90). This will not change in the future.

 

[Ananda]

The island-to-island mobility is not an issue. This is rooted in the Indonesian defence doctrine. They have regional units, which are not meant to fight on other islands. A tank battalion from Java will not fight on Kalimantan, a tank battalion from Kalimantan will not fight on Java. They stay where they are, so there is no need for sealifting capacities.

Sorry David, respectfully disagree with this. In Normal times, yes, the troops and assets of each regional units have to be responsible with the military and security disturbances on their own area. It's also true that Kostrad, Kopasus and don't forgot the Marines are build for rapid mobile reaction force.

However if the situation increasing, like in Aceh, or East Timor , then the forces from other regional district and their asset can be send to that particular area. During the height of Aceh situation, the soldiers from Kodam (District/Regional Command) Jaya (Jakarta) and Siliwangi (West Java) often being send to Aceh with their Armored asset accompany them. This on top the troops from Kostrad, Marines and Off Course Kopassus. In East Timor, the troops from Java also often come to East Timor even-though the responsibility of East Timor at that time rest to Kodam Udayana (Bali).

The troops from Kostrad and Kopassus often uses the C-130 and CN-235 from Air Force Airlift command. However the troops from other Kodam (Regional Command) that seconded to other Kodam area during emergency situations uses Sea Lift command assets.

Thus if MBT being procured the situations that they have to be transferred across archipelago is not unheard of, and in my opinion with good probability. Off course if the situation happen the first armored asset that being transported will be from Kostrad and Marines (which consists mostly light armored).

Incidentally the Marines will soon set the 3rd Div in Papua (1st Div in Surabaya, 2nd Div in Jakarta). The 3rd Div plan was already around for at least couple of years, but before the plan will be in Sumatra. Got some pictures from local forum on recent Marines Armored asset in Training, and all of them are Russian made. Wonder why their AMX-10 and ex-Korean AAV 7 not included in this recent training.

 

[DavidDCM]

Never mind, Ananda, I wholeheartedly welcome your input.

However, I still hold up my point as valid. You have to differ between peace time logistics and wartime mobility. Even a fierce rebellion such as Aceh is not a true, full-scale war. There is no general threat to the sea lanes connecting the Indonesian islands. The military can easily bring units from one island to another, simply to ensure a periodic cycle of deployment.
However, they don't even need military class sea-lifters for such a task, they can simply rent civilian cargo freighters. In a full-scale war scenario (read: foreign invasion), this would be hazardous. A freighter stacked with main battle tanks shipping from Java to Sumatra or Kalimantan would be the ultimate trophy for every enemy submarine captain. One torpedo and you basically incapacitate the Indonesian cavalry troops. As such, in a conventional war scenario, every regional branch of the army need be able to stand its ground single-handedly. Thus it should not be taken as a general assumption that a particular unit is automatically responsible for the entire country, just because it has unique equipment (like a main battle tank). First and foremost, they are responsible for the region where they are stationed.

Of course, should the conventional war become very protracted and long, this is also going to change. It would be a waste to have combat units on more remote islands like Sulawesi or the Moluccas sit around doing nothing all the time, while the units on the more exposed islands get worn down by constant battle.

The Korps Marinir is a different matter. They are not part of the army, and thus don't fall under the organisational umbrella of the army's defence doctrine. Yes, they are sea-mobile, but they use the Navy's landing ships and have amphibious armoured vehicles that don't require special sea-lifters to bring them to the beach. This a very different appraoch from hauling army tanks from one island to another.

 

[Feanor]

So to add to the Indonesian MBT drama, Russian media is reporting that preliminary agreement has been reached on a large contract with Indonesia, including another party of Su-30MK2 fighters, BM-30 Smerch MLRS, and T-90S MBTs. It's unclear whether they're talking about the new T-90MS, or the old T-90S. The contract in total is rumored to be 1.5 bln USD, with 500 mln of it for the fighters. It may even get signed before the end of this year.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óñïåõ ðóññêîãî îðóæèÿ â Àçèè: Ðîññèÿ ïðèñòðîèëà èñòðåáèòåëè, òàíêè è "Ñìåð÷è"

Now I can believe the Flankers, but the rest of this deal has me slightly puzzled. Heavy MLRS? I hope we can get more accurate details of this soon.

Korean K1 or K2, or Russian T-90 would also be much more expensive. Maybe the Russians could offer some modernized T-72 for less money.

A T-90S runs about 2.5-3 mln USD. So not really much more expensive. A T-90MS would be significantly more expensive. To be honest 2.5 mln a piece is a pretty ridiculous price for an upgraded T-64. I wonder if it would be cheaper to buy decommissioned T-64s from Russia (at scrap-metal prices) and then send them to Ukraine for the modernization.

I suspect the reason they didn't offer the T-84 was because it's not really ready for production.

I do think the Leos would be a really good buy, given how expensive these tanks are normally, and how cheap they can be had here, but politics will definitely play a role.

 

[Ananda]

Now I can believe the Flankers, but the rest of this deal has me slightly puzzled. Heavy MLRS? I hope we can get more accurate details of this soon.

Yeah, I Agree. The Deal for 6 more Flankers are already circulated in here for some time, and Ria Novosti already put progress on the deal. For Land based asset, seems before Indonesian Min-Def more inclined with Russian stuff, but with potential ex-Nato assets now possible plus Ukraine also doing some heavy marketing with ToT offer with Pindad, we'll have to be seen.

The rumors in here, the one to get Russian stuff is the Marines in the form of additional BMP-3F and BM-21 Grad. Frankly speaking BM-30 Smerch is for me rather new development.

In the end, juat like you say, politics can play.