No-fly zone over Libya

D

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Ananda,

I think that because air power is so sexy and seems to offer a quick result it misleads people into seeing it as a solution when I'm fact it is merely an enabler for te solution WHICH MUST come from the sea or on the ground. Human lives are lived on the surface.

-DA
 
T

Twickiwi

New Member
Known Unknowns

DarthAmerica said:
That is by no means an assured outcome. All out air wars have an extremely poor record at ending conflicts. This is a fight that must be won in the streets not the skies. The rebels not only lack the strength to overpower the Libyan army, they are not a homogeneous enitity. The only thing keeping them from fighting each other is hate for Gaddafi. Kill him and you ensure a massive civil war. Air wars are effective when they are in support of ground and sea operations but not independently.

-DA
Click to expand...
DarthAmerica in the War of Independence, British interlocutors tried to pry Maryland Catholics and Georgia Baptists away from the Episcopalian New Englanders by suggesting that without the Crown's protection they would be subject to religious persecution, hence the post-revolutionary contitutional separation of Church and State. If you don't think the lessons of American history don't apply to the rest of the world watch the TV for another month.

Guys, let's not pretend we know how this will pan out. This is a country in which expressing an honest opinion could get you and your family murdered for the last 42 years. We absolutely don't know what Libyans really think whether they are on the rebel side, under Gadhafi's rule or in the Gadhafi army. If we are to believe that Gadhafi's position and core army is strong and that his people are loyal to him it is difficult to explain the universal (except from Sirte) uprising in February.:confused:

If we are to believe that the rebels would slit each other's throats if you take away the threat of Gadhafi it is difficult to reconcile with the civil order that sprang up in Tobruk and Benghazi after the Gadhafi state was shrugged off.:confused: Remember this was during a period where the rebel momentum seemed unstoppable and Gadhafi appeared on screen to be losing it. Remember also that one of Mubarak's self justifications was that his removal would cause civil society to fall apart and violence to erupt. It is laughable to predict greater violence when Misrata is still being shelled.
Before Gadhafi regained his poise and mobilised his heavy assets the rebels had won almost every clash and been welcomed (on film so you can check it) as liberators. What happens now that the balance of power has been leveled is anyone's guess.
 
F

fretburner

Banned Member
Does anyone know if there are other cruise missiles used by the allies besides the Tomahawk and Storm Shadow? How about the types of bombs used by the B-2s?
 
T

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Putin has got hi,self into an argument with Mevdevev over not issuing Veto. I was surprised Russia didn't veto, have they agreed to some deal with the US?

Also, I was surprised when at the beginning Russia stopped all arms sales to Libya, I thought Gaddafi was a big ally of Russia, didn't he offer Russia a naval base in Libya? was there a fall out between him and Russia, prior to the civil war?
 
S

STURM

Well-Known Member
On CNN a few hours ago, the rebel liasion guy [a westerner] was saying that the West didn't have to worry as the rebels were mostly not 'radicals'. I'm very interested to find out what his definition of a 'radical' is .....

Interesting about Qatar sending 4 jets, which is more than can be said for the rest of the Arab League. Several other Arab countries are reportedly making preparations to participate.
 
P

plasmahawk

Member
Mig going down...

Speaking of Jets...

Here is a picture I saw on CNN -- Either a Mig-27 or a Mig-23 going down. Looks like a pilot ejected, wonder if he made it.

Pic attached.

Plas
 
J

Jhom

New Member
plasmahawk said:
Speaking of Jets...

Here is a picture I saw on CNN -- Either a Mig-27 or a Mig-23 going down. Looks like a pilot ejected, wonder if he made it.

Pic attached.

Plas
Click to expand...
He died, he was a rebel pilot and as i have heard he was downed by his own side...

P.S. Its a Mig-23, but it looked like an Mirage F1 to me the first time :D
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
T.C.P da Devil said:
Putin has got hi,self into an argument with Mevdevev over not issuing Veto. I was surprised Russia didn't veto, have they agreed to some deal with the US?

Also, I was surprised when at the beginning Russia stopped all arms sales to Libya, I thought Gaddafi was a big ally of Russia, didn't he offer Russia a naval base in Libya? was there a fall out between him and Russia, prior to the civil war?
Click to expand...
I suspect it was a behind the scenes request from France, combined with some real-politik calculations. The Russian government doesn't want to look like the enabler for every third world dictator.
 
surpreme

surpreme

Member
Feanor said:
I suspect it was a behind the scenes request from France, combined with some real-politik calculations. The Russian government doesn't want to look like the enabler for every third world dictator.
Click to expand...
Yeah you know how things go behind close not surprise about this. Do It got something to do with France selling that ship to Russia?
 
Last edited:
P

Palnatoke

Banned Member
I quess that the coalition are hoping for the rebels/libyan people to rise up and throw Ghadafi out - with the help of a bomb "here and there."

I don't know how realistic that is. On the one hand we should not underestimate Ghadafi's ressourcefullness when it comes to "survival" on the other hand I don't think the remaining libyian army is much more than a run together of badly trained and undisciplined people, that btw needed the surport of mercenaries to hold on.

I think an important component in this is that France seems to be trying to make a diplomatic "comeback" in North africa after their diplomatic debacle in Tunisia, and France has always been willing to go quite far when it comes to defending own interests.

A second component in this is that certain European countries can't live with an refugee crisis and all the other "spill over" of a long drawn civil war in Libyia.

So my forecast;

After the creation of air superiority, a lull in the action to see if the rebels can defeat Ghadafi - maybe with a little bit of help from "above".
If not, the coalition (which will probably mostly be europeans relying on US for certain hardware surport) will step up the bombings, just like in Kosova (but with less US involvement).
If that doesn't work, then we will see ground invasion - or threath there off.

My guess is that Ghadafi will get ousted, to live in Saudi arabia, or Bellarus or something like that. With a fat bank account of the billions upon billions that he, his family and friends have stolen from the Libyian people.

(In regard to China and Russia, I think it's an independent aim to state that North Africa is a in a sphere where Russia and China doesn't have to be asked, and that's how they got the UN ressolution; had China or Russia vetoed, then the coalition would have attacked anyway.)
 
S

STURM

Well-Known Member
Things appear to be getting more interesting with the UK Armed Forces Minister saying that ''there was a clear distinction between sending in a full-scale occupation force'' and on ''a more limited intervention''. He also refused to rule out the possibility of ground troops being deployed but not on a
''significant scale''.

Libya ground forces 'not ruled out' - Africa, World - The Independent

On the prospects of a future ''democratic'' Arab world.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...-world-freedom-is-now-a-prospect-2248975.html

Was watching CNN last night and noticed words like ''Libyan War'' and others now being used, reminds me of watching CNN, Al Jazeera and BBC during the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. Wonder how long it will it before there are live press conferences with a spokesman ''announcing with regret the loss of civillian lives'' and that the ''coalition is taking all the steps needed to ensure the safety of non-combatants'', and that ''an investigation will be conducted'', etc,. Unfortunatly, despite all precautions and ROE's, it is inevitable that civillians will be killed either for being in the wrong place at the wrong time or due to mistakes made by others. This is something that many of us who are fortunate not be caught up in a war zone tend to forget.
 
P

Palnatoke

Banned Member
STURM said:
Things appear to be getting more interesting with the UK Armed Forces Minister saying that ''there was a clear distinction between sending in a full-scale occupation force'' and on ''a more limited intervention''. He also refused to rule out the possibility of ground troops being deployed but not on a
''significant scale''.

Libya ground forces 'not ruled out' - Africa, World - The Independent

On the prospects of a future ''democratic'' Arab world.

Robert Fisk: Right across the Arab world, freedom is now a prospect - Robert Fisk, Commentators - The Independent

Was watching CNN last night and noticed words like ''Libyan War'' and others now being used, reminds me of watching CNN, Al Jazeera and BBC during the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. Wonder how long it will it before there are live press conferences with a spokesman ''announcing with regret the loss of civillian lives'' and that the ''coalition is taking all the steps needed to ensure the safety of non-combatants'', and that ''an investigation will be conducted'', etc,. Unfortunatly, despite all precautions and ROE's, it is inevitable that civillians will be killed either for being in the wrong place at the wrong time or due to mistakes made by others. This is something that many of us who are fortunate not be caught up in a war zone tend to forget.
Click to expand...
True. Though I am more concerned of the civilian cassulties and abuses sustained so far in the "civil war". There is an eerie silence coming out of the cities that fell to Ghadafi's so called army or mercenary bands who btw looked like coming from africa and probably haven't spend too long reading the Geneva convention...
 
T

Tomte47

New Member
According to Swedish news papers the country is considering sending 8 Gripens if asked (By NATO i presume?). All major political parties was in favor or at least not against this when asked by the news paper.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
surpreme said:
Yeah you know how things go behind close not surprise about this. Do It got something to do with France selling that ship to Russia?
Click to expand...
Lets just say that France is the closest NATO member with Russia. There are definitely ties between them that are more then official. It's not a coincidence that France mediated the end to the Georgian War, or that French companies have been getting the fat and juicy contracts with Russian force-wielding agencies.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top