No-fly zone over Libya

swerve

Super Moderator
Libyan rebel commander admits his fighters have al-Qaeda links - Telegraph
Prison Planet.com » US confirms al Qaeda members’ role in rebel command

The Iraqi mess, after a long US involvement, has produced a fairly stable western-friendly state. Do you think that will be the case in Libya?

This leaves room for local nationalism, dictatorship, religious extremism, etc. I fully agree with the idea that we should stay out of the third world. But either we stay out entirely, or if we do get involved we should do it right.
It leaves room for many things. I agree, if we get involved we should do it right. What I disagree with is the idea that troops on the ground would be doing it right. Who do you think Belhadji et al would be fighting now if there were NATO troops in Libya? They & Gaddafi would have made peace with each other (a temporary peace of expediency, I'm sure), & combined against us. This is the crucial point you don't seem to grasp.

There is a chance (definitely not a certainty) that Libya will turn into a fairly stable Western-friendly state without the several years of ghastly bloodshed, thousands of deaths of Western soldiers, & continuing suicide bombings, etc. that Iraq had & has, but if we'd intervened in the same way as in Iraq, I'm sure that Libya would now be starting down the same nightmarish path.

The time when Iraq could, perhaps, have liberated itself with Western help was in early 1991, BTW, when the Shi'a south rose up against Saddam. We'd have had to intervene firstly to stop Saddam crushing that rebellion, & then to restrain the victorious Shi'a (easier if we were their benefactors), but better that than 12 years later liberate them from Saddam & find that their gratitude was tempered by memories of us standing by while their families & friends were slaughtered.

So, we have one group some of whose members (very small numbers claimed) are or were affiliated with Al Qaeda. One of them (claiming to have broken links with Al Qaeda) is now in a prominent position in Tripoli. But he's heavily outnumbered & outgunned by other armed groups. We'll have to keep a close eye on him & any similar others, & see how it goes. Helping the democratic tendencies, & the armed groups who support them, won't go amiss.

Remember, backing dictators on the grounds that they're anti-Al Qaeda is a surefire way of increasing Al Qaeda support. It's a standard mistake, which we've fallen foul of that before, as have other governments, with all sorts of extremists & dictators.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It leaves room for many things. I agree, if we get involved we should do it right. What I disagree with is the idea that troops on the ground would be doing it right. Who do you think Belhadji et al would be fighting now if there were NATO troops in Libya? They & Gaddafi would have made peace with each other (a temporary peace of expediency, I'm sure), & combined against us. This is the crucial point you don't seem to grasp.
Gaddafi would be gone far too fast to be allying with anyone, or fighting for that matter. The conventional campaign would be over in weeks, if not days (depending on the assets committed). And of course you could learn from Iraq and ally with the local semi-insurgents and use them to police the country, instead of disarming and fighting them. Iirc that's what happened in Iraq. Except it took a long time for us to figure it out and make the moves.

There is a chance (definitely not a certainty) that Libya will turn into a fairly stable Western-friendly state without the several years of ghastly bloodshed, thousands of deaths of Western soldiers, & continuing suicide bombings, etc. that Iraq had & has, but if we'd intervened in the same way as in Iraq, I'm sure that Libya would now be starting down the same nightmarish path.
Not necessarily. Iraq suffered from insufficient numbers of troops committed. The surge was very effective because it addressed that. If the necessary troops are committed from the start, there wouldn't be a nightmarish path. The unwillingness of NATO to do that is exactly why I don't think involvement was a good idea from the start.

The time when Iraq could, perhaps, have liberated itself with Western help was in early 1991, BTW, when the Shi'a south rose up against Saddam. We'd have had to intervene firstly to stop Saddam crushing that rebellion, & then to restrain the victorious Shi'a (easier if we were their benefactors), but better that than 12 years later liberate them from Saddam & find that their gratitude was tempered by memories of us standing by while their families & friends were slaughtered.
Maybe we should've never intervened at all. The Europeans didn't abandon incessant warfare after the 30 years war, after the Napoleonic wars, or after WWI. So if we want the Libyans to get there, they need to go through their own historical cycles of conflict. They as a society need to arrive at the realization that war is terrible and needs to be avoided. We can't just graft modern democracy onto a third world society.

So, we have one group some of whose members (very small numbers claimed) are or were affiliated with Al Qaeda. One of them (claiming to have broken links with Al Qaeda) is now in a prominent position in Tripoli. But he's heavily outnumbered & outgunned by other armed groups. We'll have to keep a close eye on him & any similar others, & see how it goes. Helping the democratic tendencies, & the armed groups who support them, won't go amiss.
What we perceive as democratic tendencies from across the sea, and more importantly across centuries of historical development might be very different on the ground. In 1991 everyone thought that the Soviet Union was brought down by democrats. Many (most) continue to think this today. Really it was brought down by it's own bureaucrats that didn't want the CPSU limiting how much they could steal, with it's pesky ideology. What makes you so sure that this isn't another case of gross misrecognition?

Remember, backing dictators on the grounds that they're anti-Al Qaeda is a surefire way of increasing Al Qaeda support. It's a standard mistake, which we've fallen foul of that before, as have other governments, with all sorts of extremists & dictators.
I didn't say back Gaddafi. I think we should leave them alone, and let them sort out their own mess. If his population is willing to put up with him, then let him stay. If they're not, then let THEM oust him. We can deal with the new government once it's all over. Whoever that new government happens to be.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I put this through Google systran and made some minor edits.

...

Ran out of bombs
Some of the most expensive of the air war has been the historically high number of bombs that Danish fighters have thrown over the desert state in North Africa.

923 bombs at an average of DKK291,000 each, it became, among them one who in all likelihood killed Gaddafi's Sun Saif al-Arab.

Thus, bombs alone stood at DKK268 million.

Actually threw Danish fighters so many bombs that the Air Force at one point ran out of the high-tech hardware.

3,503 flight hours
Four teams with 120 people per team - a total of 330 people - have flown or enabled in all 593 missions have been flown by between two and four F-16-fly every time. (GD: final tally at 600 missions, or at least 1,200 sorties).

Up to 30 September had been to no less than 3,503 flying hours for the old Danish fighters, or an average of six flight hours per mission (GD: so they will have ended up with c. 3,550 fh).

Up to 20 different F-16 aircraft has flown missions, as others have had to be sent back for major repairs or scheduled maintenance.

According to Defence Command would 2,626 flight hours would have been carried out, whether there was war or not, because the Danish pilots must train their skills.

In total the defense said that DKK205 million of the total cost would have had to take place, even though Denmark had not gone into Nato mission.

Denmark flew its first mission on Sunday 20 March this year. It will take between one and two weeks to pack the Danish camp at Sigonellabasen together and send goods back to Denmark.

Dansk Libyen-indsats har kostet mindst 600 millioner kroner - Politiken.dk
A curiosity is that it was Danish fighters which carried out the final mission of Unified Protector over Libya, or that is what is implied in the text.

Pictures from the final mission:

Krigen er slut for de danske kampfly
 
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DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
One thing we can be sure of though is without airpower, the situation in Libya would be a very different and ugly one. Benghazi would have witnessed a horrific massacre if not for the timely application of air power.
The massacres happened and will get worse. Without Gaddafi as a unifying threat the rebels will compete for power. Just because it's not headline news in the west doesn't mean it doesnt happen.

There is a genocide against Libyan black people in progress there now...

-DA
 

Twickiwi

New Member
The massacres happened and will get worse. Without Gaddafi as a unifying threat the rebels will compete for power. Just because it's not headline news in the west doesn't mean it doesnt happen.

There is a genocide against Libyan black people in progress there now...

-DA
Wow Darth where do you get your information from? Fox News?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The massacres happened and will get worse. Without Gaddafi as a unifying threat the rebels will compete for power. Just because it's not headline news in the west doesn't mean it doesnt happen.

There is a genocide against Libyan black people in progress there now...

-DA
You were wrong before. I think you're wrong now.

Look at the TV coverage. You'll see many black faces among the rebels, the crowds celebrating Gaddafi's fall, & now the former rebel soldiers signing up for the new army. There is discrimination, & identification of black people (especially non-Libyans) with supporters of Gaddafi, but it isn't official policy, as racism with different targets was under Gaddafi.

There were massacres under Gaddafi, ordered by him, & overt official discrimination against particular ethnic groups. Why do you think the Berbers of the Jebel Nafusa fought so fiercely? They wanted to be free to speak their language, to get the names of their towns back, free from the fear of mass deportations (& death for those who resisted) & having communities of armed strangers settled among them & put in positions of power over them. He used to publicly rant against Berbers. He didn't seek their physical destruction, but he did try to eliminate their culture, & had no qualms about killing those who resisted.

Wherever else Gaddafi thought the locals unreliable, he'd settle people from another region among them, & give them guns & local political power, or pick one group of locals & put them on top of the rest. He often chose southern Libyans & Tuareg for this role, & unfortunately this has led to some settling of scores recently, but at least now the government tries to stop it, instead of orchestrating it.
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
You were wrong before. I think you're wrong now.

Look at the TV coverage. You'll see many black faces among the rebels, the crowds celebrating Gaddafi's fall, & now the former rebel soldiers signing up for the new army. There is discrimination, & identification of black people (especially non-Libyans) with supporters of Gaddafi, but it isn't official policy, as racism with different targets was under Gaddafi.

There were massacres under Gaddafi, ordered by him, & overt official discrimination against particular ethnic groups. Why do you think the Berbers of the Jebel Nafusa fought so fiercely? They wanted to be free to speak their language, to get the names of their towns back, free from the fear of mass deportations (& death for those who resisted) & having communities of armed strangers settled among them & put in positions of power over them. He used to publicly rant against Berbers. He didn't seek their physical destruction, but he did try to eliminate their culture, & had no qualms about killing those who resisted.

Wherever else Gaddafi thought the locals unreliable, he'd settle people from another region among them, & give them guns & local political power, or pick one group of locals & put them on top of the rest. He often chose southern Libyans & Tuareg for this role, & unfortunately this has led to some settling of scores recently, but at least now the government tries to stop it, instead of orchestrating it.
I've never been wrong here nor am I now. I'm not limited to the kinds of reporting most of you are and I can assure you that the reports of slaughter and genocide are real. Since it's not in our interest to get involved in it you won't here it or read it much in the OSINT.*The only thing wrong here is thinking the coalition went into Libya for humanitarian reasons, thinking air power spared lives and finally thinking this situation is over.

I'm not saying the coalition failed to achieve its objectives. I am saying however there is a huge difference from the stated objective and the true objectives.

-DA
 

Twickiwi

New Member
I've never been wrong here nor am I now. I'm not limited to the kinds of reporting most of you are and I can assure you that the reports of slaughter and genocide are real. Since it's not in our interest to get involved in it you won't here it or read it much in the OSINT.*The only thing wrong here is thinking the coalition went into Libya for humanitarian reasons, thinking air power spared lives and finally thinking this situation is over.

I'm not saying the coalition failed to achieve its objectives. I am saying however there is a huge difference from the stated objective and the true objectives.

-DA
Wow, that's paranoid. Even for someone who gets his view on the world view from Fox.:laugh
 

DarthAmerica

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Oh dear. Any time I see that, I know I'm talking to someone with no self-awareness.
Sure you do. Feel free to have your own opinions. I'll stick to my INTSUM. If you've got better information, good for you. I have nothing to gain by changing your mind. However there are some here who understand that there's often a night and day difference between what's shown in OSINT and events as they actually are. Libya was an amazing success in terms of removing Gaddafi and allowing Europe access to Libyan commodities on renegotiated terms. In terms of achieving UNSC 1973, check back in 10 years. Some of us have seen this before...

-DA
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Libya was an amazing success in terms of removing Gaddafi and allowing Europe access to Libyan commodities on renegotiated terms
-DA
No doubt, in the coming months the Western press will start referring to the Libyan government as being 'stable, 'moderate' and 'western friendly, whatever these terms mean......
 
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