possibly how ever with the 2 single largest oil suppliers either gone or you at war with you it is improbable that they well be able to retool fast enough
EU vs Russia who would win in this scenario.?
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Not "cornered the market", but "becomes the number one producer of oil and natural gas".
As I said, unrealistic. Even if the entire Persian Gulf was laid waste, it would still produce oil, because anything short of a nuclear holocaust (in which case we - and Russia - would have found it hard to stay safe) would leave the oil & gas still accessible. If the states & non-oil economies had been destroyed, & the populations crashed, so what? To be brutal, they're not needed to produce the oil & gas. That can be done with quite small numbers of people. I'm sure China, for one, would be happy to provide all the workers & equipment needed.
The most recent published estimates are that Russia has the 8th largest oil reserves in the world, & the 3rd largest outside the Middle East. It has the largest natural gas reserves, but they are less important, in terms of total energy content. Unfortunately for Russia, the prospect of being the largest oil producer in the world in 2023 is rather limited by it needing to discover, & exploit, a hell of a lot of new reserves by then, as its current known reserves, at current production reserves, will run out in 2030. Oops!
A forced end to Persian Gulf production would probably lead to the Canadian oil sands, & Venezuela, becoming the largest sources of oil. They'll both last a lot longer.
Russia produces slightly more oil than Angola. There are quite a few others who could sell the EU oil outside of the middle east, across Africa, South America and within the EU itself. Note Canada has the Second largest proven reserves in the world, so they could drastically increase production to meet demand.
The estimates of reserves in the Falklands alone would be enough to substantially raise production levels. If the middle east was wiped out the oil companies would have a field day all across regions of the world where oil is present or thought to be.
okay the falklands would still require oil to start in south america and endupo in Europe this scenario says Russia went through huge build up why would russia send subs to attack merchant ships transporting oil? and i would like to see proof of Russian oil capacity being the size of Angola please
Jon
That's stupid assumption. In 1939 europeans beleived what Polish army stronger than Russian army; some beleived what French is srtongest army in Europe
European armies, combined, have no chance araning Russian Army. For starters, they whould have 3-5 times less tanks; poor air defence; almost no nukes; no fighting expierence and low morale. No one, coming from West to Russia came back with victory, never: no Polish, no Swedish, no Luthuanians, no Napoleon, no Hitler - everybody was defeated.
Europeans just too weak, especially in this century
They would have twice the manpower of Russia, twice the number of aircraft, and Russia currently only has about 1700 MBTs of a class that would match up against the EU's similar number (read: T-80U, T90S). Air Defence will be pretty much equivalent by 2023 due to widespread introduction of next-generation systems throughout Europe.
500 strategic nukes are enough to glass every cold-war strategic target in the Russian Federation twice over.
500 strategic nukes are enough to glass every cold-war strategic target in the Russian Federation twice over.
i am sorry but you are wrong on many accounts the eu has war fighting experience in Afghanistan and Iraq.That's stupid assumption. In 1939 europeans beleived what Polish army stronger than Russian army; some beleived what French is srtongest army in Europe
European armies, combined, have no chance araning Russian Army. For starters, they whould have 3-5 times less tanks; poor air defence; almost no nukes; no fighting expierence and low morale. No one, coming from West to Russia came back with victory, never: no Polish, no Swedish, no Luthuanians, no Napoleon, no Hitler - everybody was defeated.
Europeans just too weak, especially in this century
British and German tanks far exceed the vast majority of Russian tanks
how ever i do believe you might be correct i am not sure who would win however i do want to make those corrections
this all might be true however this probably dose not take into account that Russians has been making huge profits because of its oil in this scenario
however i agree that both of these two super powers are well matched against each other there is another factor which is the huge overlaps in the EU countries have R&D on the same capabilities which is a huge waist of reouses
i don't want to wast my time reading whole thread.
1) forget about GDP and wealth, it is not really important. Firat, Russian GDP was $188 bln just ten years ago, now it is $2 trillion; it ten-folded in 10 years. EU GDP increased by minor percentage. Don'e ever predict future performance based on past or present, you might be wrong
2) Russian high tech mostly located in weapons. It produces one of the best killing machines: tanks, aircrafts, air defence, machine guns, submarines etc. It is world second fighter aircraft producer.
3) According to Air Power Australia - Home Page F-35 have no chance to win against even current generation Su-35 Flankers, not mention PAKFA
4) There are new tank coming to Russia, "ob.195", whihc will be far supperior than anything else been made before
5) Russia has best air defence system in the world Here is some analysis IMINT & Analysis: Russian Strategic Air Defense but it is not all the picture: the gut did not take in account:
* ground force air defence
* new systems: Nebo, Barier, Protivnik, just to name some
* S-500 is been developed
* NAVI fleet air defence
* and so on
6) Russia has misciles like Iskander, which is impossible to shut down by old sh#$% like Patriot-PAC3
7) Russia has more tanks than whole EU and US, combined
8) Russia has dozens of thousands tactican nukes, the one which can be fired from big cannon, for example. Of nuke mines. Or other interesting things
9) Russia had strategic air bombers, which can deliver misciels to any point in EU if they will attack. Don't even crossing the borders, just fly off the bases and shoot.
10) Russia has dozens strategic submarines. Same deadly force
11) and, last but not least, Russai has nuklear strategic rockets, Which can possibly destroy other continent, not mention agressor from Poland, for example
So, my advice, do not attack, brave guys. You already attacked Russia many times and you NEVER won any war against big and wild eastern bear.
1) forget about GDP and wealth, it is not really important. Firat, Russian GDP was $188 bln just ten years ago, now it is $2 trillion; it ten-folded in 10 years. EU GDP increased by minor percentage. Don'e ever predict future performance based on past or present, you might be wrong
2) Russian high tech mostly located in weapons. It produces one of the best killing machines: tanks, aircrafts, air defence, machine guns, submarines etc. It is world second fighter aircraft producer.
3) According to Air Power Australia - Home Page F-35 have no chance to win against even current generation Su-35 Flankers, not mention PAKFA
4) There are new tank coming to Russia, "ob.195", whihc will be far supperior than anything else been made before
5) Russia has best air defence system in the world Here is some analysis IMINT & Analysis: Russian Strategic Air Defense but it is not all the picture: the gut did not take in account:
* ground force air defence
* new systems: Nebo, Barier, Protivnik, just to name some
* S-500 is been developed
* NAVI fleet air defence
* and so on
6) Russia has misciles like Iskander, which is impossible to shut down by old sh#$% like Patriot-PAC3
7) Russia has more tanks than whole EU and US, combined
8) Russia has dozens of thousands tactican nukes, the one which can be fired from big cannon, for example. Of nuke mines. Or other interesting things
9) Russia had strategic air bombers, which can deliver misciels to any point in EU if they will attack. Don't even crossing the borders, just fly off the bases and shoot.
10) Russia has dozens strategic submarines. Same deadly force
11) and, last but not least, Russai has nuklear strategic rockets, Which can possibly destroy other continent, not mention agressor from Poland, for example
So, my advice, do not attack, brave guys. You already attacked Russia many times and you NEVER won any war against big and wild eastern bear.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Actually, there is also overlap with the US/AUS/CAN/JAP, and as technology flows relatively freely in the Western defence business, it gives a lot of options and solutions - it is essentially one big pool on most techs - it is an advantage - development progresses much faster than in the single line system of Russia, especially on concepts, albeit it eats up more money. It is more of an important issue when it comes to production.
But then again, Western RD&T spending dwarf Russian spending with magnitudes, so huh!
nfloorl:nfloorl:nfloorl:so, and how is your afganistan war going? 8 years and still no victory? This is not war expierence. Iraq - only british guys had some, and americans. Nobody else smels the fight
nfloorl:Germany would have soon ~200-300 modern tanks, British will have even less. No production! That's so funny. Dont even start there, we didn ot even start to discuss WHAT kind of tanks they have, how old are they and so on.
Note, even US is not producing tanks since... guess? 1992. No more new tanks, only dozen or two upgraded tanks
so you had alot to say but none is factual Russia dosent have more tanks than us and eu combined there tanks suck compared to american British and German tanks
the JSF is not an air dominance fighter however the F22 is thus we would use f22 to get air superoity then use f35 however that assumes us is in it it is not so the eu well use Typhoons which are equal to Russians however Russia dosent maintain its aircraft
russias navy leaves alot to be desired it is looking to buy ships from France it is so bad there ships are old there not maintaned they are in bad shape
Russia's sub fore is like 20 attack subs whereas the EU is at about 40 to 60 attack subs combined
eu has no bombers you are right but they have other platforms and Russia has probably 40 60 bombers currently its self
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Hey, I'd love to see you make a breakdown of the Russian tank inventory by 2023 and their average age.
so, and how is your afganistan war going? 8 years and still no victory? This is not war expierence. Iraq - only british guys had some, and americans. Nobody else smels the fight
Germany would have soon ~200-300 modern tanks, British will have even less. No production! That's so funny. Dont even start there, we didn ot even start to discuss WHAT kind of tanks they have, how old are they and so on.
Note, even US is not producing tanks since... guess? 1992. No more new tanks, only dozen or two upgraded tanks
Spain Italy Portugal Poland Australia Bulgaria Ukraine were all fighting in iraq at one time
so, and how is your afganistan war going? 8 years and still no victory? This is not war expierence. Iraq - only british guys had some, and americans. Nobody else smels the fight
Germany has 2300 tanks according to Wikki the us has more than 10,000 m1 Abrams tanks
lets look at how many modern tanks russia has?
when you have the best why upgrade them dont need anything better than the best
Georgians recently had 6 times more manpower (in first 3-4 days of 5 day war) but they ran away as fast as they can.
Internal spirit, will, guts, is far more important. Europeans is too comfortable, too lazy and too fat.
and, of course, don't even thinkg what EU is monolitic nation with one army. They will disscuss everything for months and most of littel armies will refuse to fight if they will face any responce.
Just imagine, will Spain go to war, for example, if it will be faced with possibility of stikes at nucklear power plant? they will get scared and will not go.
first of all, it is more than 2500 on active duty.second, there are ten thousand plus in long storage
third, it is ten times more than Germany would have in couple years
ah oh, you beleive in some crap sci fi what would be in 15 years... hm.. EU has no real air defence now, no reason to beleive it would make it in future. You can not even fly a man to the space! 50 years passed, but EU failed to acheave this goal
1. if they would pass Russian air defence. There are only one air defence in the world which can intercept strategic nuke head - and it is around Moscow.
2. in this case, be prepared to receive 5 times more strategic nukes on our head, buddy
3. Plus, a little secret for you: Russia has DOZENS of tHOUSANDS "tactic" nukes. It is not ICBM, but it can be deivered by Iskander, or even tank. And One of it is enought for average european city or, let say whole Estonian army.
state your resouse tell me where you are getting your facts cause none of these are right according to to wikki global security and all other defense sites Russia military is dying right now and you are say it is the one word super power Russia is a dying super power man sorry..Georgians recently had 6 times more manpower (in first 3-4 days of 5 day war) but they ran away as fast as they can.
Internal spirit, will, guts, is far more important. Europeans is too comfortable, too lazy and too fat.
and, of course, don't even thinkg what EU is monolitic nation with one army. They will disscuss everything for months and most of littel armies will refuse to fight if they will face any responce.
Just imagine, will Spain go to war, for example, if it will be faced with possibility of stikes at nucklear power plant? they will get scared and will not go.
second, there are ten thousand plus in long storage
third, it is ten times more than Germany would have in couple years
ah oh, you beleive in some crap sci fi what would be in 15 years... hm.. EU has no real air defence now, no reason to beleive it would make it in future. You can not even fly a man to the space! 50 years passed, but EU failed to acheave this goal
1. if they would pass Russian air defence. There are only one air defence in the world which can intercept strategic nuke head - and it is around Moscow.
2. in this case, be prepared to receive 5 times more strategic nukes on our head, buddy
3. Plus, a little secret for you: Russia has DOZENS of tHOUSANDS "tactic" nukes. It is not ICBM, but it can be deivered by Iskander, or even tank. And One of it is enought for average european city or, let say whole Estonian army.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Tac nukes needs an overhaul pretty often (a few years to a decade), reworking of the fissile material, electronics degrading very quickly in tac nukes, replacing parts and testing, etc. Essentially building a new nuke.
Russia doesn't have the scientists, engineers or the facilities for this. Very maintenance heavy.
Try go for the 800 mark tac and strat.
Btw, Rusisian SSBN do1-2 deterrence patrols a year. French and UK SSBN do 8-12.
ok, we agred what F35 will not live.
let's talk F22.
1) there are ~140 raptors built now, it will be 187, no more, production stopped
2) last november, only 62% is ready for mission (according to chief pentagon weapons buyer Yang)
3) this year, this number decreased ro 55%
4) for one flying hour, F22 requre 35 work hour afterwards. It need to be re-painted etc
5) and finally, it might have be superior fighter over Su-27/30/35, one by one, but only in neutral air. If it would come to Russian air space, it wuold be shut down imideately. There are A-50; Mig-31; Flankers, SAMs etc. It have no chance, no range and no serius air-to-ground weapons
6) don't forget PAKFA will fly this year
mices against tiger. Read Air Power Australia - Home Page, read WHOLE site, then comeback with sober head
so what? Russia sells ships, buy ships; France looking to build submarine with Russia together. It is called global economy.
in your dreams, buddy. Russian nave can be in better shape, but it still number 2 on the planet.
Did you ever heard about Russian anti-ship misciles? Google Club-M, for example. Or Yahont (Brahmos). These little guys can fly at 3M speeds and kill any EU ship before it will say "F#ck!" there are no current defence against such weapon. EU has nothing near that.
you was desinformed
which platforms, may i ask?
64 Tu-95; 17 Ty-160; ~100 Tu-22m3, ~10 Su-34, ... + Su24M with refueling will reach everybody in EU.
Ah, i forget to remind you. There are air-to-ground misciles on that planes. With 3000-5000 km range. Wish amaizing precigion, can fly in open window. And can deliver 500kilo ton nuke. Remember, bomber will not even have to cross the border
65 new tanks been built last year (offical
number), you do the math.Did you heard about "ob.195"? please, don't ask, you will sleep much better. This guy might have 155 caliber gun. 'nuff said
Grand Danois
Entertainer
It's always jam tomorrow in Russia, isn't it?65 new tanks been built last year (offical
Did you heard about "ob.195"? please, don't ask, you will sleep much better. This guy might have 155 caliber gun. 'nuff said
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