lets look at this scenario. its 2023. the middle east is a wasteland. russia becomes the number one producer of oil and natural gas.they go through a massive military buildup not seen since the cold war. lets say there is a civil war in ukraine between the Crimean vs ukraine. lets say ukraine bombs a russian ammo depot in the russia ukraine border becuz russia is supplying the Crimean. russia decides to defend themselves and decide to invade eastern ukraine and liberate crimea. the eu (minus the uk and us) declare war on russia. so who would win the new russian modernized military or the eu. its a war with no nukes. ukraine is not part of nato becuz they have not settled their land problems with crimea.a purely conventional war. so who would win?
EU vs Russia who would win in this scenario.?
- Thread starter WarGod
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Fear the USA
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My opinion is the EU would win. 27 countries vs. 1 country and Crimean. Russia would be fighting on many fronts. Even the US couldnt take on 27 countries. EU would dominate Russia. :nutkick
Ananda
The Bunker Group
First of all, in your scenario's Nato will acted without US. This definetely means that they would not have the capability to lauched an offensive especially agaist the power like Russia period.
Second..if the Russia become dominat power again, whose say that Ukraine will want to fight Russia ?? Even now the only political factions left in Ukraine that hostile toward russia's only the current president of Ukraine.
If the elections being done today, with eastern Ukraine solidly behind russia, and the western ukraine being politically divided between the current president faction (still hostile to Russia) and the prime minister (which more and more clossing to Russia), the pro western factions in Ukraine will lossing out.
Thirdly..whose Crimean ?? There's no nation in the east ukraine borders, besides Russia...
The following quote sums up the Russian military:
"Aging weapons, poor maintenance and 'rank-and-file officers who don't want to do anything' mean the Russian military was on the verge of a 'catastrophic crisis' and if forced into action would most probably have to rely on the use of strategic nuclear weapons, which seem to be the only ones still fully operational. Such a somber assessment came recently not from a junior coop-seeking reporter, but from the top itself, none other that Russian Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Army-General Nikolai Makarov. The General warned, among others, that the Russian air force is not procuring sufficient numbers of new modern aircraft and has fewer serviceable aircraft, manned by insufficiently combat-trained pilots, which are incapable of conducting modern era combat operations."
Unless Russia updates its conventional armoury any conflict will go nuclear early in the game. It's not just about hard-ware but man-power. The cream of Russia's youth will not join the military leaving it manned by poorly educated, poorly motivated servicemen incapable of operating net-worked systems, which by 2023 will be common in the West. For all its blustering Russia without Nuclear arms is a paper tiger.
Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
Depends on the scenario, or should i say the Eu wins in every scenario that does not involve nuclear weapons. The EU has the single largest GDP on earth (larger than the US), Europe could devote massive resources to military spending if the need arose + there is already a huge R&D base in place.
Given 5 years i think the Germans could handle the Russians all by their lonesome, forget about the EU.
Given 5 years i think the Germans could handle the Russians all by their lonesome, forget about the EU.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well, under the scenario's put in this thread, Russia will be the largest oil & gas producer. Infact indicated they cornered the market.
With that kind of money in hand, I believe Russia will not have problem to rebuild her conventional armed forces.
Can also be say in 2023, will EU still have the economics power to overcome Russia, let alone military ones ??
Afterall even now the industrialised base of Russia still there, and all it's need is money.
Perhaps the scenarios should also clarified how's the conditions of Economics of Russia and EU as probable comparisons in 2023. Many of the BRIC supporters will say that Russia economics power by that time will overcome combine EU.
It's 14 years from know, anything can happen. Alternative energy perhaps already replacing Oil & Gas, but then It may not.
Still very doubtfull under the scenario's that EU can take russia without the US of A.
Your grasp of economics is a little off to say the least. The EU, is has so much more economic might than Russia, it would take a hell of a lot more than producing lots of oil and gas to outdo them. Even if Russia was somehow able to simply open all its closed Soviet factories again with a simple injection of money (that would cripple the country) they wouldn't simply be able to outdo the EU.
The only threat would come if the EU was still massively reliant on Russian gas/oil as it is in part now. But with energy sources diversifying, not to mention there are other producers than the Middle East, to name one close to home you have the UK producing gas for example, I can't see it happening.
As has been pointed out, if the EU was truly threatened by Russia they could arm themselves very well, very quickly.
Although it is interesting to see what difference would be made with or without the UK in the game as the original post specified. It probably wouldn't change the outcome, but it might take longer for the EU to rearm, putting even more of the workload on Germany and France.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
With all do respect, 14 years from now, anything can happen. You make assumptions on 2023 economics seems as happen now.
14 years ago, nobody will saw that when a global recession happen, country like China and India can be the two top countries that leading Global growth, like happen now.
When communist fell in the 90's, and USSR disolved, Many people in the west already put dooms day scenario's on Russia as failed state and will not last in this present form in 21st century. This not happen.
Russia still long way from the might of USSR, however recently show the ability to modernize its self.
This global recession also show that EU economic resiliances in recession were not stronger than Russia, in fact in certain area Russia economic resiliances was stronger.
Again I'm only implied that putting scenario's on EU will able to take on militarily Russia without US of A even in 2023 is more far fetched than scenario's of Russia be able to surpass EU's economy in 2023.
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Wishful thinking at best.
Russia has no means to compete with the EU now or in the future and not at all within 14 years from now on.
The amount of natural ressources Russia has only mask the structural deficiencies Russia faces and will face for a very long time.
The production sector is a nightmare, Russia has no excellence in production systems, special tooling, machinery or any other means that is neccessary to rebuild a strong economy at all while the productivity of the European industry can only be matched by the Japanese. Funny enough, Russian fanboys don't want to see that where Russian industry is rebuild, it happens with foreign help, oftentimes from the EU. New and innovative concepts in terms of production and industry come from Switzerland, Germany, The Netherlands, sometimes France and the UK. Not from Russia. Sadly enough, Russia at the moment does not have the intellectual means to close that gap.
Most fanboys also tend to forget that parity with the west in terms of productivity and production excellence was already lost in the 1950's. Militarily the SU could only cope because so much ressources were used to equal the military strength of the NATO.
The EU has a huge GDP, a brilliant infrastructure, a very good educational system, more civil wealth than any other region in the world, brilliant minds, massive R&D, a stable political climate and a degree of production excellence that only Japan (by cleverness) and the US (by brute force) can match.
And don't forget that military hardware from the EU is only surpassed by American kit, and sometimes isn't.
Warships, tanks, arty, missiles, satellites, submarines, electronics, etc etc, all areas in which european industry excels and often offers more than one product that is state of the art.
How many cars does the EU produce? How many Trucks? How many ships, tooling machines, planes, etc. etc.. In any case, a whole lot more than Russia can even dream of. France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and many others are state of the art military kit producers.
Russia has a rotten economy, a mostly disfunctional, corrupt political system, a heavily obsolete military, no intellectual leadership in any relevant area of future technology.
Russia is a economical midget that tries to compete on the grounds of natural ressources and nuclear warheads. That's an inconveniant truth.
And the EU don't stand still either. The European industry is highly dynamic, very productive and very innovative. The European university system produces some of the best researchers and engineers in the world in numbers that far surpass Russia's wildest dreams. Within the next 14 years, the EU will integrate politically and militarily even more than today. The natural ressources that Russia possesses will mostly be obsolete in the future (not within 14 years though) as Europe invests huge amounts of money to diversify supply and sources.
Can you even imagine what amounts of money are spent for poor, old and unemployed people in the EU? More than the GDP of Russia is. A lot more.
Given Europe should choose to prepare for a war with Russia, there is so much money that can be diverted, the industrial base is such a massive one, as are the R&D and human ressources, the EU would outproduce Russia in terms of quantity and quality in a massive scale.
And before all that gibberish about currency reserves starts all over check this: The amount of currency reserves is not an indicator for wealth or power. On the contrary, in absence of civil wealth and a working economy that's more of an indicator for a failed financial policy.
The amount of money the German people alone have saved as private property amounts to 9 trillion €. That's why we don't sleep too bad these times. That's an indicator for wealth.
And what about that stuff about the economic crisis that all the fanboys keep rehashin' all the time? I'm sorry, no, the Western World hasn't collapsed. And no, the West is not moral wasteland. We're not taking drugs, molesting girls and burn poor people all the time. And we're not drinking floor cleanser in commuter trains because we're so poor we can't afford proper vodka.
So what on earth makes you think this will change within 14 years? There's not the slightest hint in that direction. Honestly.
I'm so fed up with all that wet dream babble about Russia being able to compete with the US or the EU or even China. Won't happen! Live with it. I wonder where you see a perspective?
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Totally agree, Russia manufactures nothing of use in the real world, its exports are derived from oil, gas, arms, caviar and vodka - that's it. Take away oil & gas and the country would collapse economically. Its arms industry is in steep decline simply because its biggest customers are either turning west or developing their own indigenous capabilities. Its highly competent human resource assets (engineers, scientists) can't get out the country fast enough (I visited a high-tech facility in Israel where the entire R&D department was made up of recently arrived Russian's). Over the next 20-25 years China will dominate the arms market in those countries who can't buy or afford western systems.
It actually amazes me why countries such as Germany continue to give Putin huge face (memories of 1944 - 45 still strong I suspect). I'm convinced this will change as the Europeans expand their non-fossil fuel based energy generation and build more nuclear power stations. The car industry, one of the biggest consumers of oil will migrate to hybrid technology, which will in turn power future generations of military hardware. The European block of countries will make Russia an irrelevant sideshow as the new power blocks of India, China and US continue to encourage trade with the former at the expense of a diminished Russia bear.
I have one for you- in this Stratfor-article exactly this question is dealt with. You're suspecting right.
stratfor.com said:
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I'm not a russian fanboy, but also not a dillusional westerners that think that supremacy of west is so secured that nothing will or can chalange that.
Again this crisis show that westerns economies are not immune from huge downturn. This should be a wake up call for western fanboys on the west actual strength for the future
This giberish on Russian as failed state, wasteland of decadent race has been around since the day USSR collapse. However even with all the weaknesses, Russia still doing comparatively well, still can produce high end technology
Never I'm mentioned that West will collapses, but also I have to stress the fact that EU is not the almighty power that nobody can catch up with them anymore.
Telling that now or in the future EU will be able to take Russia alone without the US is the thing that I stated as 'DAY DREAMING'. The EU can not handle small impoverished Serbia alone without the US help, now want to take russia alone without the US ???
EU does not have huge military airlift/sealift power that can projected their force outside the border SIGNIFICANT enough to handle the kind of force Russia has.
EU perhaps has better quality products, however not large enough to handle russia alone.
Any conflict with Russia need US help. You can talk much about the industrial power of EU, however 14 years from now much of them might perhaps has to shut down due to influx of goods from China.
What high-end technology does Russia produce and export other than weapons? How many flat screen TV's, hybrid cars, industrial robots, precision machine tools, lap-top computers et al are built and exported from Russia? Once their arms industry withers and dies due to lack of investment and exports, what are they going to turn to? Have you ever seen a Russian 'high-tech' commercial product for sale in a competitive free-market environment, if so tell me, because I haven't.
Like e.g. what? What high end technology can Russia still produce without foreign help? Otherwise what can Russia possibly produce that's not derived from soviet-era technology? IT- nope. Transportation- nope. Consumer electronics- nope. Tooling machinery- nope. Bulava missiles perhaps
In what respect is Russia doing comparatively well? If there is nothing, there is nothing to loose.
The EU has a GDP (PPP) of more than 15 trillion $, Russia a little more than 2 trillion. Even if there is a temporary decline of 2-3%- and that's what we're talking about regarding your huge downturn, there's still some difference.
And you can't dismiss the factor of public wealth. The Russian people is very, very poor compared to EU standards.
Oh, and btw just because the Russian government decided not to talk about the effects of the financial crisis on Russian economy that doesn't mean they're not losing money. A lot of it.
If there was an all out war effort, and I said this in my last post already, the EU could outproduce Russia in terms of quality and quantity with ease. Regarding airlift and sealift, the EU is producing several times as much ships, airliners and helicopters as Russia does, let alone the basic stuff like trucks and other vehicles.
Even in times of peace, the EU spends almost ten times as much for defense than Russia does.
The fact that the EU has no significant power projection capabilities at this point is deliberately chosen by it- the industrial and technological potential is there and far surpasses everything Russia could handle.
Oh my god, do you have any idea what kind of products the EU produces and what China produces? Do you know what it means to have an "extended workbench"? Are you familiar with the concepts of industrial sourcing? I guess not.
And still, please provide a perspective on why the economical dominance over Russia would possibly change within 14 years.
I'd like to add that any military confrontation with Russia would be a nightmare and is not what any Russian or Western European can wish for. I think the only way for both entities to secure wealth and peace is to work closely together and that's exactly what our politician are working on. The EU-Russian relationship still is a good one and will evolve in the future despite all difficulties.
I suppose that riksavage used these as examples for the general lack of innovation in Russian industry.
You might take a look at the levels of productivity and industrial output of top notch technology...
That is a component which helps to win wars...
My argument here is a lot of technical innovation, which may end up being used by the military, actually origininated from a civilian application. Flat screen TV screens are now common place in APC's and on warships, hybrid engines will power future armoured vehicles allowing for quiet running with the engines shut down, bringing extended ranges and more efficient use of power (very useful in the reconnaissance role). Most modern Western warships are now using open architecture COTS technology allowing for incremental upgrades ,which came out of the civi world.
Russia has almost zero civilian high-tech engineering capabilities, any innovative systems not wholly developed by the military will need to be imported or stolen via aggresive FSB activity. The West is surging ahead in UAV technology, which is the way of the future. The recent incursion into Georgia showed just how antiquated the Russian military has become - they had access to zero modern ISTAR capabilities. The Russian military can but dream of operating MQ-9 Reaper type drones allowing their C&C to sit in Moscow and watch real-time action on the ground thousands of miles away. RVT's are now common place amongst UK & US troops in A-STAN allowing for real-time viewing, this technology incorporates miniaturisation advances taken from the electronics industry.
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