Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Grand Danois]

Well seeing as how Russia has just acquired two very good, top quality Black Sea ports in Poti & Sukhumi..............

Exactly my thought. Pretty convenient isn't it? As a minimum it gives the Russians leverage in negotiations over Sebastopol.

 

[Feanor]

Grand Danois for one it's Sevastopol

But otherwise, Poti and Sukhumi do not have the necessary infrastructure for basing the Black Sea Fleet. Novorossiysk is far more suitable in that regard, and that is the planned future base for the Black Sea Fleet, with construction already started for the rebasing of some of the transport ships.

 

[Sampanviking]

Infrastructure can be developed. Poti was a major Soviet Era port anyway, so it would simply need updating.

Critical thing though is natural Deep Water Harbourage and that is what these two have to offer.

 

[swerve]

Well seeing as how Russia has just acquired two very good, top quality Black Sea ports in Poti & Sukhumi..............

As to the strange policy, well if Russia were to allow the continued Eastward expansion of NATO through the Georgian doorway through to Armenia and hence over the water to Kazakhstan. Russia would lose its Politicla leverage, its status as a Black Sea power and thus any influence in the Med and; more crucially, the Middle East.

Pretty Sum Zero stuff would'nt you say?

Aren't you aware of the crucial difference between NATO & Russia? Countries have to ask to join NATO, & they're not always accepted (like the EU, actually). NATO can't expand "over the water to Kazakhstan" unless Kazakhstan asks to join. The reason why countries like Georgia want to join NATO is for protection from Russia. Don't threaten them, make them feel safe, & they stop wanting to join NATO.

Puts me in mind of the old fable of the wind & sun competing to get a mans coat off. The wind tried to blow it off, & he wrapped it tighter around himself. The sun shone warmly on him, & he happily took it off himself. I think you can work out which one is Russia.

 

[kato]

NATO can't expand "over the water to Kazakhstan" unless Kazakhstan asks to join

All that takes is the right man in the right position.

Shevardnaze wouldn't have wanted to join NATO, and Yanukovych didn't either. Gives some food for thought, perhaps.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Deleted

 

[Grand Danois]

Its quite ironic that the original principles which was to protect Europe and North America (art 5 of the NA treaty) has now been expanded to include central asian economies. Its just another example of self preservation of interests. Every country does it. A country that doesn't eg Georgia ends up the way it is.

Georgia is not Europe and now Central Asia???

 

[Feanor]

A news update. Abkhazian president Bagapsh said in an interview that the Russian Black Sea Fleet would not get basing rights in Abkhazia. He said Russian Land Forces would remain in the same bases they had been on previously. And Russian MoD declares that Russian troops have completed full withdrawal from S. Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Georgia proper. Only the original peacekeeping units that were there before the conflict still remain. Well there goes Poti and Sukhumi as future bases.

Swerve the analogy is an interesting one, but the truth is that Georgia chose itself to play on anti-Russian nationalism when Saakashvili came to power. Just like the Baltic states do all they can to push Russia's buttons, like holding parades on Hitlers birthday, and trying to put Russian WWII vets on trial. It's the irresponsible nationalistic leadership in those coutries that tries to play on the anti-Russian images that brings the conflict out.

EDIT: Well looks like Ukraine is in another political crisis. Yuschenko has just been stripped of some of his power. Timoshenko seems to be crossing over to the pro-Russian side. The orange coalition looks on the verge of collapse, yet despite this th Ukranian Rada rejected the proposition to recognize Abkhazian and S. Ossetian independence.

It gets more and more interesting as th Abkhazian president is quoted saying Abkhazia has oil and natural gas on it's territory. Meanwhile Georgia has officially notified Russia that all diplomatic ties are being severed. The irony is that as a result Georgian guest workers will lose the ability to work in Russia, which will be a significant blow to the Georgian economy.

Finally Anatoly Nogovitsuin said in an interview that Georgian forces are being pulled to the S. Ossetian border once more.

 

[nevidimka]

In another development, the EU has decided against imposing sanctions on Russia although some new EU states like the baltics have made up their mind on imposing sanctions.

And regarding Saakashvilli, he himself is not a properly elected democratic president although he advertises to the world that he is 1. Otherwise stories of Georgians threatened to vote for him or otherwise risk going out of business wouldnt have surfaced.


And on Ukraine, there are rumours that Timoshenko is going pro-russia so that Russia would help her for her presidential bid on the next elections. Well that's as far as Yuschenko mind being made up. I believe Yushenko will be voted out the next elections and Timoshenko becoming president and Ukraine becoming pro-Russia.

And what kind of forces are Georgians pushing close to S.Ossetia? Surely they wouldnt think of another attack ? That would be the joke of the century.

 

[Feanor]

They're reportedly trying to retake Georgian villages in S. Ossetia, especially those not covered by the peacekeepers.

 

[swerve]

They're reportedly trying to retake Georgian villages in S. Ossetia, especially those not covered by the peacekeepers.

According to the terms of the ceasefire stated by Sarkozy, & originally accepted by Russia, i.e. return to the status quo ante, they should revert to Georgian control, because they were under Georgian control on August 6th.

 

[Feanor]

Yeah, and so was the Kodori Gorge, but administratevly they're part of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia respectively. So there is no way anyone is going to let those go.

 

[swerve]

Yeah, and so was the Kodori Gorge, but administratevly they're part of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia respectively. So there is no way anyone is going to let those go.

Then Russia should not have accepted the terms of the ceasefire. If you don't mean to keep an agreement, don't make it. Next time, nobody trusts you, & when someone has the upper hand over you, they'll have no compunction about breaking any agreement they've made with you, knowing that's how you'll behave.

You'd have thought that the KGB would study games theory, & experimental psychology, but it appears not. If you establish a pattern of keeping your word, others adjust their treatment of you to take it into account - and on average, their adjustments benefit you. That's rational self-interest, by both parties.

 

[Feanor]

Hehe. I don't agree with the current course of action. I have my own idea of what should have been done. I'm just commenting on what you said in regards to the situation and how it's likely to unfold.

Anyways the ice is broken. Nicaragua recognized both republics. There's one I certainly didn't see coming. Hi5 Latin America.EEE

http://newsru.com/world/03sep2008/nika.html

 

[Grand Danois]

Anyways the ice is broken. Nicaragua recognized both republics. There's one I certainly didn't see coming. Hi5 Latin America.EEE

http://newsru.com/world/03sep2008/nika.html

Yeah, also as surprise to me, until I remembered that Ortega is of the old school.

Nicaragua joins Russia in recognizing South Ossetia, Abkhazia
Managua - The leftist Sandinista government of Nicaragua became the second country - after Russia - to recognize the break- away Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The president of the Central American country, Daniel Ortega, said late Tuesday before the leadership of the Nicaraguan Army that he supports the plan by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to bring these territories closer to Russia.

"The government of Nicaragua recognizes the independence of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and we fully agree with the Russian government's position that that conflict may end through dialogue with European countries," said Ortega, who in the 1980s put Nicaragua in the orbit of the Soviet Union.

He expressed support for Putin in the face of what he called "a plan to circle the Russian Republic."

"World peace is being threatened by hegemonist, rash policies, because the Soviet Union disappeared and they went about promoting the break-up of nations that had a great unity that had been established with great effort," Ortega added.

Despite protest from Western countries, Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia last week.

The internationally-isolated Belarus is also contemplating recognizing the independence of the two break-away provinces, while Moscow expects some 10 countries to follow its example in this respect.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/...ia-in-recognizing-south-ossetia-abkhazia.html

 

[Feanor]

Ripple effect. Two communist villages in Estonia have declared themselves the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic and are declaring independence from Estonia. They say they're tired of fascist NATO occupiers O.O

 

[Waylander]

I guess a squadron of Tornados with MW-1s is already taking off to teach them a lesson...

Seriously, a joke?

 

[Feanor]

No. No joke. It's an article I saw on newsru.com which is usually fairly reliable. Here's a link. http://newsru.com/world/03sep2008/essr.html

EDIT: And in another surprise move Medvedev had a 1.5 hour conversation with the leader of Transnestria, the breakaway region of Moldova, after which the leader announced that he is ready to return to negotiations with the Moldovan government. They are ready to accept offers of wide autonomy within Moldova instead of complete independence.

http://kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1020286

 

[John Sansom]

Feanor's last post explains it all. Russia will happily accept situations and conditions that help the re-expansion of influence and authority. From the Kremlin's point of view, the Georgian affair has more than helped to nudge things along. The threatening statements of chaps like General Valerie Yevnevich are part of the pattern which moves the game forward. General Val, you may recall, openly stated that Russia's armed forces can beat anybody, even those receiving US help.

 

[Grand Danois]

EDIT: And in another surprise move Medvedev had a 1.5 hour conversation with the leader of Transnestria, the breakaway region of Moldova, after which the leader announced that he is ready to return to negotiations with the Moldovan government. They are ready to accept offers of wide autonomy within Moldova instead of complete independence.

http://kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1020286

Hehe. I did suspect it was coming (in Transnistria). The deal that soothes W Europe and demonstrates Russian largesse.