Russia Flexes its Muscles

Grand Danois

Entertainer
While I agree with you Grand Denois that Russia could not steamrole NATO in any way , I would just like to correct you a bit about the Su-34 , its actually a Fighter-Bomber. Cheers
That is true. :) I emphasised the bomber role (leaving out the fighter part) because it was in the context of going head to head with Rafales and EFs. It would probably have been better if I had used "strike aircraft" or something like that.
 

icelord

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I have serious doubts as to the abilities of the US Government and congress to withstand a war with a major nuclear power like Russia.
If Europe went to battle with Russia, i would not rely on the US to swing in any time soon, we could even see a semi-isolationist policy, with the Hawks being drowned out by Doves the US would not move too quickly to square it up with their old foe.
The leading Democrat leaders show little interest in putting Foreign Affairs at the fore front of their campaigns, whether its not politically viable or they just don't know is yet to be seen. Obama and clinton do not have exactly a whole lot of Committee junkets experience, although Bill might be called in to help his misses if things go belly up with the bear.
The US congress will not want to get into a Quagmire for a while post-Iraq and would rather re-build their forces first.Very much like post-vietnam all over again where war is a dirty word in politics and Diplomacy is a saving grace.perhaps a couple of quick missions around the Islands would bring back a bit of confidence.

The Russians would see a collapse in their economic boom if they went in hard and fast at in europe at first. Chinas demand for Fuel and Energy would cancel out any lost Euro contracts and see new pipelines heading south east rather then west.Perhaps Gazprom is already making wind in this direction and sees a strong market, if not then why?

A hypothetical just for laughs, what if the contracts to India and China saw a clause to have Aid returned in the event of war, being fighters,bombers...subs? These 2 countries have made just as much money and weapons off the collapse of the USSR as have Arms traffickers. Could we see a backdoor deal once their production line is in fall swing, and don't say they couldn't, money talks people.

Do the Russians still train the same way with their NCOs, being someone in new platoons being promoted at the end of training for their form more then experience? This was always a major hiccup in having effective leaders, also in the officer corps and FSB are no longer a proud instituition of people, more a return to the Kruschev days of friends of friends, where rank is a title more then an honour of talent...kinda like the current RN.
 
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  • #43
Iraq will be forgotten very quickly if Russia and Europe were to fight a war. All the election slogans that you are hearing now will be nothing more than what it is . The Left and Right will be united as they both don't want to see Russia rise into a superpower again. Many Americans still remember the Cold War and don't want to turn back the clock. The isolationist are not significant in Washington. Europe will receive any help she needs.
 

LancerMc

New Member
A conflict our all out war with Russia would lead to a massive and quick withdraw from Iraq. The only way Russia could truly start a war and try to end it decisively is with the use of WMD's. If they tried to enter a conventional land war, NATO satellites could easily detect some type of military build up.

True also Russia is planning on modernizing their military significantly in the next few decades. Though like it has been the past few decades the majority of that money is being used to maintain and develop their nuclear deterrent. In 20 years NATO will be flying JSF's, F-22's, Typhoons, and UCAV's while Russia may have a new 5th gen fighter and updated Su-27's & MiG-29's. True Russian will have Su-34's and modern Tu-160's but the USAF will mostly like have a new hypersonic bomber. The USN will have new fleet of Virginia class attack subs, while Russia is only planning on building a maybe 6 new SSBN's and retrofitting the old noisy Delta IV's. Russia is building its new fleet of attack helicopters but it will never match the strength & numbers of NATO's forces. True Russia has the massive advantage in ground vehicles, but the past decade had shown that western systems have been more then match for Russia tanks and APC's.
 

drandul

Member
A conflict our all out war with Russia would lead to a massive and quick withdraw from Iraq. The only way Russia could truly start a war and try to end it decisively is with the use of WMD's. If they tried to enter a conventional land war, NATO satellites could easily detect some type of military build up.
Guys.. let's be realists. How many cases you know Russia started any wars? Were is no any point for Russia to start any conflict. Not at all! Not in any future. And Especially in Europe! Russia currently have more than needed almost any kind of resources - Oil, gas, mineral, iron, territory whatever. Only resources it suffered is population. Or may be I'm little biased ? There is one major interest for Russia right now- stable and rich Europe. - That mean Russia could effectively develop it's commercial and national interests only in stable and independent Europe, acting as part of it, not as foe. Almost 40 % of trade balance of Russia is in Europe. And all tries to oppose Russia and Europe looks artificial. Russian population newer support any "offshore" military conflicts where Russia was involved in. European companies do so much business in Russia that any tension immediately affects Russians as well as Europeans. It's clear that government wants to protect or control strategic sectors of economy like natural resources or military contractors. But still western companies has huge share in projects of those sectors.
For me personally current situation looks like NATO looking for somebody to justify it's existence. It's extremely difficult for such structure like NATO get enough money from it's members if there is no any clear enemy. The same about US military budget. Some times enemy need to be created. And better to have enemy somewhere far. The farther the better. Opposite side of Earth is the best case.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...within a decade the Russian army should be about 95% modernized and would have countless dozens of new equipment and technology including the COALITSIYA-SV.
95% modernised implies it will have far less heavy equipment, & have scrapped most of the current stocks, given the rate of new building & refurbishment.
 

XaNDeR

New Member
A conflict our all out war with Russia would lead to a massive and quick withdraw from Iraq. The only way Russia could truly start a war and try to end it decisively is with the use of WMD's. If they tried to enter a conventional land war, NATO satellites could easily detect some type of military build up.

True also Russia is planning on modernizing their military significantly in the next few decades. Though like it has been the past few decades the majority of that money is being used to maintain and develop their nuclear deterrent. In 20 years NATO will be flying JSF's, F-22's, Typhoons, and UCAV's while Russia may have a new 5th gen fighter and updated Su-27's & MiG-29's. True Russian will have Su-34's and modern Tu-160's but the USAF will mostly like have a new hypersonic bomber. The USN will have new fleet of Virginia class attack subs, while Russia is only planning on building a maybe 6 new SSBN's and retrofitting the old noisy Delta IV's. Russia is building its new fleet of attack helicopters but it will never match the strength & numbers of NATO's forces. True Russia has the massive advantage in ground vehicles, but the past decade had shown that western systems have been more then match for Russia tanks and APC's.
I disagree because.
This war is not a likely scenario , nor Russia nor NATO wish such a scenario to happen and have absolutely no desire to start such a scenario as it would only lead in a destruction of most their military / economy.
About the Navy plans Russians actualy plan to build around 12 Borei SSBN's to replace the old SSBN's and build Severodinsk the new attack nuclear submarine that is said to be better than Virginia ( 1 part of concept the russians took from USN virginia and thats how to increase and beeing even more quiet , im not very sure what it was atm I think the hull or something ).
They are also planning new Frigates , Destroyers and Corvettes for the surface fleet and 6 new carriers.
Allthough these plans are overly confident seeing as how the Russian economy is I would not put my hand in fire for all these plans to come true .
 

contedicavour

New Member
Dear Drandul, you may be right up to a point, but honestly Putin's strategy is to unite the Russian population against perceived external threats... to justify growing defence budgets and to make sure opposition parties are forgotten.
I don't see Russia starting conflicts against the West, I agree. However I do see a sort of new cold war emerging since a stronger Russia inevitably uses its strengths to become a great power again.
Conflicting point of views between Russia and the West are increasing : Kosovo, ABM defences in Eastern Europe, the Baltic states' treatment of ethnic Russians, Georgia, Chechnia, control of the Arctic, Venezuela...
This means that any defence policy in the US and Europe has to consider Russia as a potential foe, even if luckily enough the chances of hot conflict are minimal.

cheers
 

LancerMc

New Member
Personally I don't believe Russia would start a conflict in Europe. I was addressing the ideas by other members that such an idea by the country would lead to Russia losing a war with NATO. Really the modernization of the Russian military is a bargaining chip for Putin as he tries to stem the Westernization of the old Soviet republics. I think Putin is still stuck on the post WW2 idea of buffer states between Russia and NATO. A stronger more modern military is a better big stick to wave at political adversary then an old small Cold War one.
 

drandul

Member
Dear Drandul, you may be right up to a point, but honestly Putin's strategy is to unite the Russian population against perceived external threats... to justify growing defence budgets and to make sure opposition parties are forgotten.
I don't see Russia starting conflicts against the West, I agree. However I do see a sort of new cold war emerging since a stronger Russia inevitably uses its strengths to become a great power again.
Conflicting point of views between Russia and the West are increasing : Kosovo, ABM defences in Eastern Europe, the Baltic states' treatment of ethnic Russians, Georgia, Chechnia, control of the Arctic, Venezuela...
This means that any defence policy in the US and Europe has to consider Russia as a potential foe, even if luckily enough the chances of hot conflict are minimal.

cheers
I really feel that western or foreign people have very specific point of view on Russia and Putin.And it looks little bit shallow. Based exclusively on public news channels. Recently Russians have a kind of immunity to official propaganda and any kind of information from news apprehend in very critical way. Any news- Russian or foreign . I mean there is no any restrictions for information here (at least i do not feel them ) if you want to know. I got CNN, BBC, FOX news - it's difficult to be affected by some kind of artificial point of view if you can collect information from different sources. And for me it's clear that different news channels is affected by some influence groups -it's normal. Independent Journalists in politics - are endangered species. I agreed that some steps in internal politics could have been done by Putin in smarter way - I mean election system, infrastructure development. Problem with opposition- those people use to be in power while Eltcin time. So nothing really new or attractive. That time was just nightmare - zero law power, zero social care, zero defense budget, 100 % criminal power everywhere. So currently there is no any political party with some clear program and most of leaders of those parties looks kind of freak. They are not forgotten - they just unpopular. Pro-Kremlin parties unpopular as well - not much difference. They just have more financial support from big business to support interests of that business that's why have more opportunities to promote them self - almost same like in US ;)
Growing defense budget - is very logic - if you have almost zero defense budget you'd like to have at least something. Current budget is negligibly low in compare to western countries. We got such neighbors like China, Japan, Afghanistan, North Korea - I don't think any European countries like to have such neighbors especially if you have small defense budget.
Conflicting point of view are not really conflicting. It's just different point of view. And it's strange why western leaders takes it like offense. Particular case- Kosovo. I cant understand - what is the point of Kosovo separation? - I mean there are many similar cases. - Ireland, Abhaziya, Kurdistan, Bask's in Spain ?? For me it's very unclear - why need to support Kosovo separation but not support Ireland separation or Kurdistan separation in Turkey ????Especially from historical point of view.

ABM defense...hm -just ask opinion of population in Czech Republic and anyway it's going to be US ABM system, not even NATO system. And major tension is not because system itself is threat to Russia- mostly because it going to be a new hook to control Europe. If it was NATO system or joint European system - believe me I personally never would have been worried about.
.... Gorgia...difficult to say what went wrong....I use to think that Gorgia is one of historical ally of Russia..... - I think it will be more clear in future. I mean even now Georgian economy existed only because of direct US money injection. That is the reason of huge corruption and poverty of population majority.
Chechnya....- long and dark story. It had independence once. - Results are well known. State with taliban-like organisation with shariat law and beheading of infidels. Right now - situation is pretty stable- huge money spends to reconstruct republic. Money form all Russia. Like in any arms conflict a lot of people gets badly affected. I don't know any conflict when all are happy.
Arctic..- strange to hear that. Some scientists got to the bottom of north pole first time in history - looks like great achievement for all humans. They may be got some data to represent it in international committee. Everything done according to international law and practice. Anyway- there is no any oil in north pole itself. Flag itself- is just kind of evidence that some humans have been there. It would had been strange if they put US flag or China flag.
Venezuela- you mean arm-trade contracts?.. nothing personal- just business - not so many markets opened for Russia.
From my point of view Russia acts with more logic and predictability in politics compared to some western countries.
Sorry for long topic - I just tried to explain my vision.
 

LancerMc

New Member
Bomber Flights Permanent

Well today President Putin announced that recent bomber flights over and near old and new adversaries of Russia would become permanent again just like during the Cold War. Putin sure seems to be in a saber rattling mood recently. With opposition to a combine missile defense system, bomber overflights, airspace incursions, and other tactics he sure seems on setting the image the Russia is still the major military power that it was during the Cold War.
 

Chrom

New Member
Well today President Putin announced that recent bomber flights over and near old and new adversaries of Russia would become permanent again just like during the Cold War. Putin sure seems to be in a saber rattling mood recently. With opposition to a combine missile defense system, bomber overflights, airspace incursions, and other tactics he sure seems on setting the image the Russia is still the major military power that it was during the Cold War.
It is quite simply really - if Russia have strategic aviation than this aviation MUST do training flights everywhere, including Atlantics. In the last 10 years there was simply no money for training flights. As soon as aviation got some money - training/recon flights was resumed.
 

RA1911

Member
The Royal Norwegian Air Force repports that they have scrambled fighters 13 times this night to follow Russian bombers, fighters and tankers flying over the north sea along Norwegian territory towards the UK and Iceland. This is the most activity seen since the 80ies. Norwegian TV showed pictures of Backfires, Mig 31s and Il-78 tankers taken from RNoAF F16s during the night.
 

Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
The Royal Norwegian Air Force repports that they have scrambled fighters 13 times this night to follow Russian bombers, fighters and tankers flying over the north sea along Norwegian territory towards the UK and Iceland. This is the most activity seen since the 80ies. Norwegian TV showed pictures of Backfires, Mig 31s and Il-78 tankers taken from RNoAF F16s during the night.
One of the side effects of the Russian training flights is that it giving operational training to European air defence assets. Recent scrambles by the RAF and RNoAF have possibly provided them with more realistic training than some of their organised exercises.

Tas
 

dave_kiwi

New Member
Verified Defense Pro

contedicavour

New Member
The Royal Norwegian Air Force repports that they have scrambled fighters 13 times this night to follow Russian bombers, fighters and tankers flying over the north sea along Norwegian territory towards the UK and Iceland. This is the most activity seen since the 80ies. Norwegian TV showed pictures of Backfires, Mig 31s and Il-78 tankers taken from RNoAF F16s during the night.
Wow I've got a feeling the good old Clancy books from the '80s are now valid again ;)
I wonder if the Mig31 carry R77 (or the older semiactive BVR missile) and if the Backfire carries the good old Cold War anti-ship cruise missiles such as the "Kitchen"... Damn, the USN retired the F14 and the Phoenix too early :D

cheers
 

contedicavour

New Member
From the Sydney Morning Herald:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Russian-navy-carrier-back-in-service/2007/08/20/1187462124102.html

Quote: "Russia has started flying jets again from its only operational aircraft carrier after a two-year break, state-run television reported in the latest show of the country's reviving military capability...."

Wonder if this is a lead in to a deployment / training cruise.

Seems like the Bear is indeed awakening from a long slumber
The navalized Flankers are good aircrafts, I'm more sceptical about the carrier's operational status. Each time it sailed for a long cruise there were rumours of malfunctioning systems... Russia has to make the Kuznetsov credible again before starting to build new carriers.

cheers
 
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  • #58
I wonder if the Backfire carries the good old Cold War anti-ship cruise missiles such as the "Kitchen"... Damn, the USN retired the F14 and the Phoenix too early :D

cheers
The Upgraded Backfire still carries the "Kitchen" along with Kh101 cruise missiles. They also have new radars.
 

RA1911

Member
Wow I've got a feeling the good old Clancy books from the '80s are now valid again ;)
I wonder if the Mig31 carry R77 (or the older semiactive BVR missile) and if the Backfire carries the good old Cold War anti-ship cruise missiles such as the "Kitchen"... Damn, the USN retired the F14 and the Phoenix too early :D

cheers
It's difficult to see details on the pics, but there are 2 of them on this page: http://www.mil.no/fol/start/aktuelt/article.jhtml?articleID=143627

Article is in Norwegian though, but it doesn't say anything intereseting except that this was a pre-announced excersise from the Russians.
 

10ringr

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Wow I've got a feeling the good old Clancy books from the '80s are now valid again ;)
I wonder if the Mig31 carry R77 (or the older semiactive BVR missile) and if the Backfire carries the good old Cold War anti-ship cruise missiles such as the "Kitchen"... Damn, the USN retired the F14 and the Phoenix too early :D

cheers
It still urks me that when we're having to produce 300 million dollar aircraft that we couldn't keep up something like the Tomcat who's power and weapons are still effective and most importantly they're here now. Hutch
 
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