Russia Flexes its Muscles

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Grand Danois, where do you gain your info from? And what is your nationality? Don't get me wrong, it really isn't something personal but if all you get as info comes from the press it explains a lot of things about your point of view...
Grand Danois = Great Dane, should explain it. ;) No, I don't take it personal (I'm not getting personal with you either, we're just having a little discussion).

Where have I been factually wrong? No, I don't get it from the press, as you put it. I read everything from economic to threat assessment reports; political, military & technical academia; and, of course, also the press.. But back to the facts. Should I take it that you mean the Su-34 are not Fullbacks but Flankers?

Do you disagree with the numbers of troop levels in NATO? Point it out...
 

contedicavour

New Member
There are a couple of things about Russian armies' situation I remain sceptical about.

First of all, a lot of talking about new weapons procurement, yes. However it often relates to very limited numbers (what difference a squadron of SU34 can make ? compare that with the hundreds of Typhoons and Rafales entering service at the same time), or to plans that haven't materialized yet (I'm referring to the 2 aircraft carriers).

Secondly, Russia has a serious problem of maintaining weapons strength : as some new material gradually arrives (a few SU34, some TU160, ??) and as some recent material is upgraded (MIG29 to SMT status for instance), there are still hundreds of old jets, tens of ships and thousands of tanks and APCs that have to be replaced ASAP. The situation is improving but replacing 1:1 is impossible.

So I find it interesting to read that the brave Russian soldiers (no irony here, I respect them) are at long last receiving better training and that reserve soldiers can be brought to the front line fast... but as far as weapons are concerned, Russia will still suffer for at least 10-15 years the void in defence spending 1990-2005. Oh and what about plans to start paying soldiers and officers a bit better ? Patriotism is great, decent living standards for soldiers is also important...

cheers
 

BuSOF

New Member
Well the numbers are rapidly declining and formations are being disbanded. Have you heard of russian formations being disbanded? About the Su-34 callnames really doen't mean a thing. I believe we agree that Su-34 is an upgraded Flanker (afterall it's original designation is Su-27IB - Izstrebitelj Bombardirovshchik or Fighter-Bomber). I think you are too optimistic. My sources are mostly friends from forums like that one, who have served in the armed forces of countries I am specially interessed in. So when I say something on those issues is only that, what they share with me and when professionals are pesimistic, I am also. But I find it curious that you dont consider the energy problems inspired by Russia that the European Union has.
 

contedicavour

New Member
But I find it curious that you dont consider the energy problems inspired by Russia that the European Union has.
You are right Europe depends for about 1/4 of its energy supplies on Russian natural gas and oil. However there are alternatives (Algeria, Libya being particularly close) and if the current bullying by Gazprom and Rosneft continues, expect more nuclear power plants in Europe, and more Ethanol inside our cars' gas tanks... For the moment however Western companies are trying to find common ground with their Russian counterparts (recent BP, ENI and TOTAL deals) and if politics doesn't mess things too much hopefully there won't be too much hostility.

cheers
 

BuSOF

New Member
You are right Europe depends for about 1/4 of its energy supplies on Russian natural gas and oil. However there are alternatives (Algeria, Libya being particularly close) and if the current bullying by Gazprom and Rosneft continues, expect more nuclear power plants in Europe, and more Ethanol inside our cars' gas tanks... For the moment however Western companies are trying to find common ground with their Russian counterparts (recent BP, ENI and TOTAL deals) and if politics doesn't mess things too much hopefully there won't be too much hostility.

cheers
Sorry but I disagree. The Maghreb countries still aren't capable of producing the oil we need and the only alternative is the "Blue stream" project of a pipeline through the Black Sea transporting Caspian oil. That is the reason why Moscow is so interested in keeping its presence in the region. The alternative power sources are not something plausible in the forthcoming 25-30 years. As for powerplants we see nuclear plants closing, not opening new ones, especially when you have in mind th estrong ecological lobby in the European parliament.
 

contedicavour

New Member
Sorry but I disagree. The Maghreb countries still aren't capable of producing the oil we need and the only alternative is the "Blue stream" project of a pipeline through the Black Sea transporting Caspian oil. That is the reason why Moscow is so interested in keeping its presence in the region. The alternative power sources are not something plausible in the forthcoming 25-30 years. As for powerplants we see nuclear plants closing, not opening new ones, especially when you have in mind th estrong ecological lobby in the European parliament.
Well my view may be a bit biased by Italian and French views, but :
(i) the amount of oil actually imported from Russia is by far inferior to sourcing from the Gulf and Africa (adding maghreb to Nigeria and Angola).
(ii) on natural gas I agree with you that's where we'll take more time to react, but pipelines below the Mediterranean already exist or are building. Besides, we do have natural gas fields of our own in the West
(iii) there are 2 new nuclear power plants building, one in northern France and one in Finland. The UK is seriously considering building new ones, and Germany and Sweden are having second doubts about closing the existing plants.
I'd also add that stringent fuel consumption rules in the EU and the ever higher % of diesel powered cars are reducing our dependency on imported oil. This plus Ethanol and hybrid technologies should help in the long term.

cheers
 

contedicavour

New Member
How is this radar going to detect aerial targets beyond 400-500 km?

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20061222/57586624.html
This Ivanov (Minister of Defence) is busy doing his PR ahead of Russia's presidential elections... :rolleyes: after a former KGB colonel we end up with an armed forces general... The Cold War wind feels stronger, especially if a tough guy like Giuliani or McCain wins the presidency in the US ! Otherwise Russia will just keep re-establishing its lost superpower status.

cheers
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
This Ivanov (Minister of Defence) is busy doing his PR ahead of Russia's presidential elections... :rolleyes: after a former KGB colonel we end up with an armed forces general... The Cold War wind feels stronger, especially if a tough guy like Giuliani or McCain wins the presidency in the US ! Otherwise Russia will just keep re-establishing its lost superpower status.

cheers
Ivanov - I know I know... :D

Don't think Giuliani or McCain will get the presidential office, though.
 

contedicavour

New Member
Ivanov - I know I know... :D

Don't think Giuliani or McCain will get the presidential office, though.
Well bizarrely some tough talk on foreign policy and military affairs has come even from Mrs Clinton and Obama, so who knows... anyway I'd start reevaluating the usefulness of some programmes that were cut or curtailed at the end of the Cold War. All of a sudden SSNs and F22s make a lot more sense if you're facing Borej SSBNs and SU34s (instead of the usual terrorist lurking in the Afghan mountains...)

cheers
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Well bizarrely some tough talk on foreign policy and military affairs has come even from Mrs Clinton and Obama, so who knows... anyway I'd start reevaluating the usefulness of some programmes that were cut or curtailed at the end of the Cold War. All of a sudden SSNs and F22s make a lot more sense if you're facing Borej SSBNs and SU34s (instead of the usual terrorist lurking in the Afghan mountains...)

cheers
As I see it, the Russians are posturing and making lots of noises. It is for domestic consumpting, making the Russian population believe that the encumbent govt is the only one that can guarantee security and preserve national prestige, e.g. that ridicolous titanium flag on the seabed on the North Pole. The overmatch from the West is so overwhelming IMV, that it is just an issue of diverting some of the existing resources in their direction, e.g. building an extra Astute or Baracuda, infrastructure in Eastern Europe, maintaining existing command structure, etc...
 

contedicavour

New Member
As I see it, the Russians are posturing and making lots of noises. It is for domestic consumpting, making the Russian population believe that the encumbent govt is the only one that can guarantee security and preserve national prestige, e.g. that ridicolous titanium flag on the seabed on the North Pole. The overmatch from the West is so overwhelming IMV, that it is just an issue of diverting some of the existing resources in their direction, e.g. building an extra Astute or Baracuda, infrastructure in Eastern Europe, maintaining existing command structure, etc...
I broadly agree but I would add that a few competencies that have been almost abandoned should be brought back : take ASW for instance. It used to be European navies' priority n°1. Now it's way down after AAW, amphibious operations, littoral ASUW, etc. If Russia deploys a few Akulas in Syria to cover permanently the Mediterranean, I doubt we've got enough SSKs and ASW FFGs to face this new "threat".

cheers
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I broadly agree but I would add that a few competencies that have been almost abandoned should be brought back : take ASW for instance. It used to be European navies' priority n°1. Now it's way down after AAW, amphibious operations, littoral ASUW, etc. If Russia deploys a few Akulas in Syria to cover permanently the Mediterranean, I doubt we've got enough SSKs and ASW FFGs to face this new "threat".

cheers
But if the Russians stationed a few Akulas in the Med, then you'd also see the financing of some extra U212 for the MM being processed quickly. And the full complement of FREMM being built for the MN, without the budgetary battles the programme sees now.
 

contedicavour

New Member
But if the Russians stationed a few Akulas in the Med, then you'd also see the financing of some extra U212 for the MM being processed quickly. And the full complement of FREMM being built for the MN, without the budgetary battles the programme sees now.
Don't forget we still have 3 separate sets of more or less former communists in Prodi's government... they aren't likely to take such arguments as valid to boost the defence budget. Damn, 17 years ago these folks were still paid for by the USSR :mad:

On a lighter note, if this warmongering does wake up public opinion and help our defence budgets grow, then hurray to President Ivanov :D ;)

cheers
 
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  • #36
Didn't some guy from the Russian government announced they were going to build at least 2 planes per year? It wouldn't make sense if Russia didn't increase the number of its most potent strategic weapon given their recent cash flow.
According this report, It will be 2 new planes every 3 years.
 

Ares

New Member
All I can see from this topic is just clearly biased views against the Russian military. Sure they still have budgetary issues but the situation is improving quickly.

within a decade the Russian army should be about 95% modernized and would have countless dozens of new equipment and technology including the COALITSIYA-SV.
 

10ringr

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Russia is indeed showcasing its rising power. High oil prices have helped make them wealthy. At the rate things are going, Russia will become a major economic power. Currently Russia's economy is smaller than Italy's or France's but that is bound to change. Its population of 140 million people and vast natural resources mean Russia has great potential.

Mr. Putin has done many great things for Russia. He has stood up to the West. (That's not easy) And he has made use of Russia's oil and natural gas.

The bomber that came near Guam was a Tu-95 Bear. An old, and not so effective bomber. Surprised those are still in service. Their TU-160s are a real threat. I personally admire those aircraft. They can carry something like 80,000 pounds of bombs and travel at Mach 2+.

I don't like the fact that Russia has control of vast energy resources. They aren't the most predicable people around.
I agree with you, I've always thougt that showing your power ought to be left to those that have it and while certainly they have it perhaps sending up as adequated as this might not be best, with the same logic they could send up a fleet of biplanes. :D
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
No surprise here. With increased funds russian strategic aviation started training. These kind of training missions are normal and usuall thing for all countries what do posses strategic aviation.
This only catched attention becouse in the last 15 years Russian strategic aviation stopped flying training missions. I'm sure in 1-2 years only military experts will know about new exersises - as these missions rarery catched public attention during Cold War. There is simply nothing interesting here, just routine military training.
Btw, I agree very much with this. The Russians are slowly getting back on their feet. It is not really provocations per se, as most major players do this. Also, it has no comparison to the Cold War, despite areas of friction like energy, and ballistic missile defence in Europe.

That some use this to play domestic politics in Russia and other countries, is what it is.

However, because of the spending hiatus and resistance to reform, the Russian armed forces have been (and still is) very much in need of an overhaul of equipment and personnel, both in terms of quantity and average quality. It seems the process is underway, and the increased level of activity from strategic aviation is not only politics, but also a symptom of this. It will be interesting to follow.

(That being said, I find the concept of expanding the Russian army four or five times with conscripts in a few weeks, then go steamrolling NATO, simply evade any notion of what is required in training and logistics for it to be a minimally competent offensive maneuver force. It's pure numbers, not real world, just like comparing it with how many active personnel NATO has is meaningless. Though, I couldn't resist it. ;) My point being; war potential can't be realised just like that.)
 
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XaNDeR

New Member
While I agree with you Grand Denois that Russia could not steamrole NATO in any way , I would just like to correct you a bit about the Su-34 , its actually a Fighter-Bomber. Cheers
 
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