I don't know why people keep bringing up the issue of exporting the F-22. The U.S. government has said time and time again that this is for us, and for us only.
Could not agree more.
Given past track record, it would take Europe 20 years to design, develop and most important - form a partnership to
fund an F-22-like equivelant. BAE are fixed to Typhoon, F-35 and various UCAV.
Poor old EADS and Dassault are committed to the Neuron UCAV, having missed out on the F-35 and Dassault can't fund anything until they export Rafale - its only a matter of time before the French Government cuts it's losses and sells out Dassault to EADS IMO. If Germany wasn't involved in Typhoon, that would have happened a lot longer before now.
Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands' Governments saw the light and drew their fighter production houses into the F-35 too.
None of the above have plans for a manned air-dominance fighter like F-22. They are all developing alternative UCAV technology. The battle for Sweden's SAAB is near - 49% owned by BAE, but opted to join the Neuron effort.
That leaves China and Russia to develop something akin to Raptor and that won't materialise any time soon. Until they do, Raptor in my opinion is closed.
Maybe a dowbgraded export version for Japan - and no ITAR.