War Against ISIS

wittmanace · Oct 13, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
I see that rockets have struck the russian embassy -

I see it is an ongoing thing, going back some time in that a few rounds get fired at it every now and then:

Syria conflict: Shells hit Russian embassy compound - BBC News

gf0012-aust · Oct 13, 2015

wittmanace said:
I see it is an ongoing thing, going back some time in that a few rounds get fired at it every now and then:

Syria conflict: Shells hit Russian embassy compound - BBC News

the interest will be around whether the call to arms made to muslim separatists in the caucasus etc will resonate - ie they've called for strikes on russians and facilities in support.

it has been spasmodic in the past - but its what I referenced a few days back - ie that the greater russian involvement would invite attention "back home" for the russians. by back home I mean that the russians step from being incidental protest targets to a defined and strategic target by separatists and their supporters regionally. its
the "magnet" effect

wittmanace · Oct 13, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
the interest will be around whether the call to arms made to muslim separatists in the caucasus etc will resonate - ie they've called for strikes on russians and facilities in support.

it has been spasmodic in the past - but its what I referenced a few days back - ie that the greater russian involvement would invite attention "back home" for the russians. by back home I mean that the russians step from being incidental protest targets to a defined and strategic target by separatists and their supporters regionally. its
the "magnet" effect

Well, though it has been underplayed in the sense I haven't seen it reported in the English press, Aslan Byutukayev (essentially lineal successor to Khattab, Basayev etc and behind the 2014 Grozny attacks) swore allegiance to Isis in June already.

I also noted from Robert Fisk's coverage that the first strikes the Russians carried out were against Turkmen/Chechens....essentially people who would be fighting in the Caucasus/ committing terrorism there. This was his explanation for the choice of the first strikes when they started in earnest.

It would make sense in the context of the previously posted article suggesting Russia's end game is strategic defeat of Al Qaeda and Isis, bearing in mind Isis now encompass the Islamists seeking the Caucasian and Ichkerian emirate.

Edit: I see the state department added them by name, as the Caucasian unit of Isis on 29th September this year.
http://m.state.gov/md247433.htm

And they cite a sept 2nd attack in Dagestan:

"The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Caucasus Province (ISIL-CP) became ISIL’s newest regional group on June 23, 2015 when the spokesman for ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released an audio recording accepting the sworn allegiance of the fighters of four Caucasus regions – Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. The statement also appointed Rustam Aselderov as the emir of the new ISIL-CP. On September 2, 2015, ISIL-CP claimed responsibility for an attack on a Russian military base in Magaramkent, southern Dagestan, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of a number of Russian citizens."

A.V. Berg · Oct 13, 2015

wittmanace said:
Well, though it has been underplayed in the sense I haven't seen it reported in the English press, Aslan Byutukayev (essentially lineal successor to Khattab, Basayev etc and behind the 2014 Grozny attacks) swore allegiance to Isis in June already.

I also noted from Robert Fisk's coverage that the first strikes the Russians carried out were against Turkmen/Chechens....essentially people who would be fighting in the Caucasus/ committing terrorism there. This was his explanation for the choice of the first strikes when they started in earnest.

It would make sense in the context of the previously posted article suggesting Russia's end game is strategic defeat of Al Qaeda and Isis, bearing in mind Isis now encompass the Islamists seeking the Caucasian and Ichkerian emirate.

Edit: I see the state department added them by name, as the Caucasian unit of Isis on 29th September this year.
Designations of Foreign Terrorist Fighters

And they cite a sept 2nd attack in Dagestan:

"The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Caucasus Province (ISIL-CP) became ISIL’s newest regional group on June 23, 2015 when the spokesman for ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released an audio recording accepting the sworn allegiance of the fighters of four Caucasus regions – Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. The statement also appointed Rustam Aselderov as the emir of the new ISIL-CP. On September 2, 2015, ISIL-CP claimed responsibility for an attack on a Russian military base in Magaramkent, southern Dagestan, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of a number of Russian citizens."

The only thing I can add is that the threat is not just terrorist attacks as such. Russia is no stranger to extremism with foreign ties. The core problem, as I see it, is that there are over two-thousand Russian citizens fighting for ISIS in the Middle East. If these estimates are true, then that would mean that there are almost as many Russian extremests abroad as there are in the Caucasus. So, upon their return, Russian security services would have to deal with almost twice as many people.

Muukalainen · Oct 13, 2015

Syria's army, allies plan offensive against insurgents in Aleppo | Reuters

This conflict is escalating very quickly.

Toblerone · Oct 13, 2015

@A.V.Berg
They will be monitored by FSB and at some point arrests of them and their associates will happen. This is certainly one of the highest priorities of their security services. VVP has mentioned russian citizens fighting in Syria, or am I mistaken/misremembering?

A.V. Berg · Oct 13, 2015

Toblerone said:
@A.V.Berg
They will be monitored by FSB and at some point arrests of them and their associates will happen. This is certainly one of the highest priorities of their security services. VVP has mentioned russian citizens fighting in Syria, or am I mistaken/misremembering?

From memory, I think Patrushev, the head of the counter-terrorism coordination committee gave the figures.

It's not going to be entirely FSB's show. Bastrykin's Investigative Committee has some oversight over extremism. Ministry of Internal Affairs does as well. In fact, given the intense competition between the security services, Chaika's Procuracy Office will no doubt attempt to exert influence not just in regards to court proceedings.

I would also, not be surprised if SVR is involved given the foreign dimension.

Feanor · Oct 13, 2015

A.V. Berg said:
The only thing I can add is that the threat is not just terrorist attacks as such. Russia is no stranger to extremism with foreign ties. The core problem, as I see it, is that there are over two-thousand Russian citizens fighting for ISIS in the Middle East. If these estimates are true, then that would mean that there are almost as many Russian extremests abroad as there are in the Caucasus. So, upon their return, Russian security services would have to deal with almost twice as many people.

On the Russian side, quite a few people think that part of the reason Russia has deployed there is to keep the fight over there, instead of having to fight it at home.

gf0012-aust · Oct 13, 2015

Feanor said:
On the Russian side, quite a few people think that part of the reason Russia has deployed there is to keep the fight over there, instead of having to fight it at home.

but thats the very reason why there has been a US reluctance to put boots on the ground

ie magnet and honey pot effect

Feanor · Oct 14, 2015

wittmanace · Oct 14, 2015

Thanks for the update.

Is it just me or does the first comment on the cruise missile parts link appear to be right, that it is an rbk-500 as per:

Análisis Militares: Entra en acción en Siria la submunición AO-2,5

Do you know what manpads the Saudis and Qataris are looking to ship? Or when?

I imagine they are exposing themselves to some nasty blowback or retaliation with that move if it is in a reasonable quantity, in Russian operating areas or modern gear.

wittmanace · Oct 14, 2015

gf0012-aust said:
but thats the very reason why there has been a US reluctance to put boots on the ground

ie magnet and honey pot effect

I think the Russians are in a very different situation from the U.S.

The historical issues regarding the Caucasus etc, and also the background of how Chechnya was dealt with, and of course the low intensity continuation of things in Dagestan. I did notice over the years that combat footage of Russians in action often tended to be Dagestan when there wasn't a big event in the news (Georgia, Grozny attacks, etc make big news).

Though America has the Saudi alliance issue and Mecca American troops etc, as well as Israel support issue, it doesn't have the same geographical identity overlap or a history of this as long, and so on. Russia on the other hand wouldn't be out of this greater picture issue by not being in Syria. It looks like Russia can choose the time and place more by going into Syria, but would have had the issue to face. I think their comments regarding Afghanistan and its post war state point to Russia having been aware of the need for kinetic action to go at the fundamentalist Islamic issue coming to Russia. And sharing a land mass is a big issue here too, I'd wager.

I don't think Russia will replace America as 'the great satan' in the fundamentalist world, for several of the reasons above....not anything close, even after going into Syria.

Feanor · Oct 14, 2015

A couple of other updates. Apparently thousands of Iranian soldiers have arrived in Syria, to take part in the Syrian offensive. It appears that the SAA isn't making progress very quickly, despite Russian air strikes, CAS from the Mi-24s, and even some alleged ground support. The Iranians will allegedly be involved in the push for Aleppo.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Reuters: â Ñèðèþ ïðèáûëè òûñÿ÷è èðàíñêèõ áîéöîâ âî ãëàâå ñ ãåíåðàëîì Ñóëåéìàíè

The Russian MoD passed along a proposal for avoiding accidents in the Syrian airspace, to the Pentagon.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû ÐÔ ïåðåäàëî Ïåíòàãîíó ïðåäëîæåíèÿ ïî áåçîïàñíîñòè ïîëåòîâ íàä Ñèðèåé

barney41 · Oct 14, 2015

Is the high rate of Russian sorties being reported at odds with the relatively limited number of aircraft and logistics deployed. I had thought this might be attribured to an initial surge that would eventually taper off but the numbers seem to be increasing. I wonder if Syrian sorties are being lumped in...

A.V. Berg · Oct 14, 2015

barney41 said:
Is the high rate of Russian sorties being reported at odds with the relatively limited number of aircraft and logistics deployed. I had thought this might be attribured to an initial surge that would eventually taper off but the numbers seem to be increasing. I wonder if Syrian sorties are being lumped in...

I would have thought so too. However, I would have thought that there would have to be turnover soon. Except the Su 30sm, Russia has enough of all of the planes to allow for smooth replacements.

The other question is whether there is enough ground staff and related equipment to keep up the high tempo of maintenance.

Feanor · Oct 14, 2015

A.V. Berg said:
I would have thought so too. However, I would have thought that there would have to be turnover soon. Except the Su 30sm, Russia has enough of all of the planes to allow for smooth replacements.

The other question is whether there is enough ground staff and related equipment to keep up the high tempo of maintenance.

I think that based on how long they can keep up this tempo, we can get our answer. It will also tell us a lot about the current state of the VVS. You can be fairly certain that they sent the best personnel and aircraft to Syria, so what we are seeing is naturally above average performance, by VVS standards. It should also be noted that with massively increased flight hours, and the complex exercises they've been engaging in over the past 5 years, a certain amount of improvement over previous performance is to be expected.

I'm not sure what you mean by replacements. You mean in case of casualties?

wittmanace · Oct 14, 2015

It probably also depends on what proportion are hind actions. The historical deliveries of hinds, the length of time they've used them there, etc mean there should be a lot of parts and munitions for them there. Probably brought rather large quantities of munitions for them too.

As for the SAA making slow gains, would the NDF that was operating there before the territory was lost not be a large part of the Syrian forces engaging in the ground attacks in the line infantry role? As opposed to the SAA regular units I mean.

A.V. Berg · Oct 14, 2015

Feanor said:
I'm not sure what you mean by replacements. You mean in case of casualties?

No, not casualties. Bad choice of words on my part. What I meant was a rotation of personnel and aircraft for a more even flight-hour spread. As far as I understand it, the modernisation programmes for Su 24's and 25's did not include new engines.

Would it be fair to say that all of the pilots presently involved, competed in Aviadarts?

Feanor · Oct 14, 2015

A.V. Berg said:
No, not casualties. Bad choice of words on my part. What I meant was a rotation of personnel and aircraft for a more even flight-hour spread. As far as I understand it, the modernisation programmes for Su 24's and 25's did not include new engines.

The modernization included an overhaul so they should have plenty of resource left. As far as rotating aircraft goes, there should be plenty of air frames of all the types currently involved. The Russian air force has a full regiment flying the Su-30SMs and is in the process of re-arming a second regiment right now. They have a single wing of 4 fighters deployed. No shortage of replacements for that.

Would it be fair to say that all of the pilots presently involved, competed in Aviadarts?

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. However I don't know for a fact. Most of the Army Games competitions were held in each unit, then between units, then in each District, and only finally nation-wide.

wittmanace · Oct 14, 2015

Looks like the battle for Aleppo is starting "in the coming day" according to FARS news:

Farsnews

Russian air, Syrian arty, Syrian troops, Hezbollah forces (number of 200 given). Russia performing last recon flights.

War Against ISIS

Active Member

Grumpy Old Man

Active Member

New Member

New Member

Banned Member

New Member

Super Moderator

Grumpy Old Man

Super Moderator

Active Member

Active Member

Super Moderator

Member

New Member

Super Moderator

Active Member

New Member

Super Moderator

Active Member