War Against ISIS

[Nick underscore]

Al Jazeera is reporting that the Iranian Islamic Republic Revolutionary Guard have released a statement saying that Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani of the Iranian Army was killed by Daesh on the outskirts of Aleppo overnight, Thursday night. The statement went on to say that the BG was there advising Syrian troops.
ISIL kills top Iranian commander in Syria - Al Jazeera English

This is now becoming concerning in some respects.

Reported yesterday that TWO more IRGC Brig-Gen's have been killed in Syria (12/10). Farshid Hasounizadeh and Hamid Mukhtarband, both were former commanders of the Sabreen and 1 Brigades, respectively.
- Two more Iranian commanders killed in Syria

This is the fourth IGRC senior commander killed in Syria, over the last 10months.. Gen. Mohammad Ali Allahdadi was killed in the Syrian sector of the Golan heights, by an Israeli airstrike targeting a Hezbollah HQ in January this year.

The cynical side of me thinks of the possibility of 'cleaning house' within the IGRC..

 

[Twain]

Update.



Rebels showing off US mortars and shells dropped to them, dated 1943

Ð’ÑÑкий хлам - Военный Блог

[/url]

I'm not sure the images are real, one is duplicated here at the WWII 90th infantry divisons website.


http://www.http://www.90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/images/IMG_1380.jpg90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/index.html

 

[gf0012-aust]

Is the high rate of Russian sorties being reported at odds with the relatively limited number of aircraft and logistics deployed. I had thought this might be attribured to an initial surge that would eventually taper off but the numbers seem to be increasing. I wonder if Syrian sorties are being lumped in...

if all the numbers are accurate - and all things being relative, thats only 3-4 sorties per platform per day if they're all up and running

thats oversimplified of course, but its not an indicator of high tempo

 

[Blackshoe]

So, upon their return, Russian security services would have to deal with almost twice as many people.

Who says they have to come back? Even if they do live through their jihadi adventures, Russia, like Saudi Arabia, has the luxury (unlike Western democracies) of being able to allow these guys to go and not let them back in. That's a very powerful tool.

 

[KiwiRob]

Who says they have to come back? Even if they do live through their jihadi adventures, Russia, like Saudi Arabia, has the luxury (unlike Western democracies) of being able to allow these guys to go and not let them back in. That's a very powerful tool.

There are a number of Western democracies who have enacted or are planning to enact legislation to cancel passports of nationals found to be members of ISIL.

 

[swerve]

I'm not sure the images are real, one is duplicated here at the WWII 90th infantry divisons website.


http://www.http://www.90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/images/IMG_1380.jpg90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/index.html

Well spotted.

The quality of Russian sites appears to be pretty low. Fakers like that are taken seriously.

 

[wittmanace]

Well spotted.

The quality of Russian sites appears to be pretty low. Fakers like that are taken seriously.

Agreed. I think it applies to the internet generally. I saw several images of Iraqi hinds pre-2003 being used as images of Syrian hinds when I was looking into the types Syria has historically used. It's a shame that GRIS and tineye become necessary.

 

[Twain]

Well spotted.

The quality of Russian sites appears to be pretty low. Fakers like that are taken seriously.

The parachute bit is questionable too. The US did drop supplies into that refinery, in April or may? to the surrounded Iraqi army. The Iraqis lost the refinery and then retook it in July, which is when those videos first surfaced. The russian propaganda machine is just resurrecting it now that they are getting more involved and concentrating less on Ukraine.

 

[Feanor]

I'm not sure the images are real, one is duplicated here at the WWII 90th infantry divisons website.


http://www.http://www.90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/images/IMG_1380.jpg90thidpg.us/Equipment/Weapons/81mmShells/M56/index.html

It's my understanding that the first photo is from Syrian rebels, the second is a reference to ID what's in the first.

 

[Feanor]

A quick update. Russia and Israel have reached some sort of agreement on use of air space over Syria, to avoid incidents.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àðìèè Ðîññèè è Èçðàèëÿ çàâåðøèëè ñîãëàñîâàíèå "êîîðäèíàöèè ïî Ñèðèè"

And the Syrian Army has begun an offensive on Homs from the North.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ ïðè ïîääåðæêå ðîññèéñêîé àâèàöèè ïîøëà â àòàêó íà ïîçèöèè ïîâñòàíöåâ ïîä Õîìñîì

 

[Ranger25]

For what it's worth the Admiral Kuznetsov is out of repair and heading for trials

The only Russian aircraft carrier is done with repairs and heading out for sea trials/training. I've seen some discussions indicating the Kuznetsov deploys to support Syrian operations. I see no sense in that other than a further marketing ploy similar to the cruise missile firings to highlight to the world the Bear is back.

Far less expensive to continue using land based air power IMO




Repairs of Russia's only aircraft carrier completed - English pravda.ru

 

[PO2GRV]

The only Russian is out of repairs and heading out for sea trials/training. I've seen some discussions indicating the Kuznetsov deploys to support Syrian operations. I see no sense in that other than a further marketing ploy similar to the cruise missile firings to highlight to the world the Bear is back.

Far less expensive to continue using land based air power IMO





Repairs of Russia's only aircraft carrier completed - English pravda.ru

Agreed land based air power is better here, but Kuznetsov isn't much a strike platform anyway considering its STOBAR configuration. *If* she deployed to the eastern Med it'll be to provide CAP to the flotilla (if you could call it that) already deployed there. This unlikely for two reasons

1) Kuznetsov is notoriously unreliable, and a trip to the yards wasnt going to fix that
2) I don't this the facilities at Naval Depot Tartus could provide much support
3) its a bridge too far for Russia to deploy their sole aircraft carrier to the region vis-à-vis US/Western/NATO naval forces also in the area. It would (correctly) be interpreted as too much an escalation

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian air activity peaked earlier, and is now waning. Oct 14th saw 41 sorties, Oct 15th only 33. The official line is that the terrorists are scrambling to re-position, and the Syrian Army is advancing, making the situation unclear.

A quick look does show that during the recent Syrian Army offensive, the majority of sorties briefly shifted from training camps and manufacturing facilities, to actual rebel positions.

Сокращение интенÑивноÑти дейÑтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии 15 октÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd
Продолжение операции ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии 14 октÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd
ВКС РФ, Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ очумелые ручки - Whipping Scourge

Potential appearance of the RPA-A Shmel in Syria.

Первый "Шмель" на кадрах из Сирии ? - Юрий ЛÑмин

One Iranian UAV crash landed in Iraq, and another was shot down over Syria.

Ababil-3 - Военный Блог
ПВО иÑламиÑтов - Военный Блог

Meanwhile Turkey and Saudi Arabia held a meeting regarding continuing support for Syrian opposition forces, and expressed concern over Russian actions in Syria. And Putin, in the same day, stated that Russian operations in Syria have a limited timeframe, intended to support the Syrian Army offensive. What this means in practice is unclear, since it's rather unlikely Russia will simply pack up and abandon the infrastructure they've built.

ÐнтироÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии - Военный Блог

Also two new ships have joined the Syria Express. The nuclear materials transport Yauza has been retasked carrying cargo for the Syrian Express, and the ex-Turkish civilian cargo-haulas been bought, renamed Dvinnitsa-50, and is also now a VMF support vessel.

Бывшие турецкие Ñуда Ð´Ð»Ñ "СирийÑкого ÑкÑпреÑÑа" - bmpd
ТранÑпорт "Яуза" приÑоединилÑÑ Ðº "СирийÑкому ÑкÑпреÑÑу" - Юрий ЛÑмин

 

[GermanHerman]

Agreed land based air power is better here, but Kuznetsov isn't much a strike platform anyway considering its STOBAR configuration. *If* she deployed to the eastern Med it'll be to provide CAP to the flotilla (if you could call it that) already deployed there. This unlikely for two reasons

1) Kuznetsov is notoriously unreliable, and a trip to the yards wasnt going to fix that
2) I don't this the facilities at Naval Depot Tartus could provide much support
3) its a bridge too far for Russia to deploy their sole aircraft carrier to the region vis-à-vis US/Western/NATO naval forces also in the area. It would (correctly) be interpreted as too much an escalation

What do you think about the experience gain from an actual combat deployment though?

I would figure out that there is a difference between maneuver and an actual deployment to assist in an combat operation which might benefit both the crew and the command structures. Is this actualy true or do you think the importance of such experience is negligible compared to the downsides of such an operation?

 

[Toblerone]

BBC reports:
Turkey says its warplanes have shot down an unidentified aircraft which intruded into airspace near Syrian border

Was it an UAV maybe? I sure hope it wasnt a russian aircraft.

EDIT: seems it was a drone, heh

 

[GermanHerman]

BBC reports:
Turkey says its warplanes have shot down an unidentified aircraft which intruded into airspace near Syrian border

Was it an UAV maybe? I sure hope it wasnt a russian aircraft.

Yep, they say it was a drone. I think the loss of a drone is nothing that will have any serious consequences, even if it was a russian one.

According to Turkish broadcaster NTV, it was a drone shot down more than a mile inside Turkish airspace.

If this statement is true it does raise the question what a drone would do that far in turkish airspace though, neithere Russia nor Syria has any interest in provocing Turkey atm.

 

[Feanor]

Yep, they say it was a drone. I think the loss of a drone is nothing that will have any serious consequences, even if it was a russian one.



If this statement is true it does raise the question what a drone would do that far in turkish airspace though, neithere Russia nor Syria has any interest in provocing Turkey atm.

Could've been an accident. Between quality issues, and operator issues, they might've lost control of a longer-range UAV (Iranian origin perhaps) and it could have wandered into Turkish airspace, prompting the shoot down.

 

[barney41]

Maybe Russia testing Turkey's resolve? Turkey showing it's serious.

 

[Feanor]

Maybe Russia testing Turkey's resolve? Turkey showing it's serious.

To what end? I mean anything is possible, and Turkey is one of the main routes for weapons going in, and oil going out of the conflict zone. But none the less, it doesn't look too likely. Especially when you consider how few longer ranged UAVs Russia has. It's far more likely, even if Russia wanted this incursion done, that it was an Iranian UAV in Syrian hands. Or even in Iranian hands, given that they now apparently have boots on the ground.

Meanwhile Russia says that they've lost no UAVs or airplanes, and that with the exception of the Su-30SM that strayed into Turkish airspace for several seconds due to weather problems, they've not flown into Turkish air space any other time.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1811175.html

And here are alleged photos of the downed UAV.

http://sandrermakoff.livejournal.com/887891.html

EDIT: The UAV may indeed be a Russian Orlan-10. However it doesn't look like it was shot down as the Turks claim, rather that it crashed on its own. Given the size of the UAV and the AA assets in question, there'd hardly be this much left if it was actually shot down. There's also a version that the UAV may be one that fell in Syria to the Islamists earlier this summer, and simply have been moved into Turkey to create an incident.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1108745.html

 

[Twain]

It's my understanding that the first photo is from Syrian rebels, the second is a reference to ID what's in the first.

I'm not sure this one passes the smell test. It's not like the US has tons of WWII surplus laying around, most was used up in Korea and to a much lesser extent Vietnam. I suppose the US could have purchased some from a 3rd party nation but that begs the question of why they would buy them from a 3rd party? It's not like they need plausible deniability.

Then you have a picture of a mortar round with no markings being shown and a second picture of a round that is similar in outline dated 1943, but there are several different types that are visually similar.

M301A2 in black below

I think Occam's razor is applicable here.