Ukranian Crisis

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STURM

Well-Known Member
I am unsure of how the US sees Malaysia as a geostrategic partner, but I'm willing to wager that our cooperation in SEA will probably be helpful in the "contain China" doctrine.
The U.S. has always wanted close defence ties with Malaysia. For various reasons, Malaysia - unlike some of her neighbours - has traditionally downplayed her defence ties with the U.S. but it is important to bear in mind that despite past strained bilateral ties; the defence relationship was never affected. The recently concluded ''MALUS'' and ''Cope Taufan'' - which saw the Raptors debut in a regional exercise - are indications that defence ties are not only entering a new level but that a message is being sent to China that Malaysia is keeping her options open. During the same period as ''Cope Taufan'' there were also a number of visits by senior U.S. military officials. This year's ''Kris Strike'' will see the 1st deployment of the Stryker to Malaysia.

They're in enough trouble over the election fraud claims as it is.
I get the point you're trying to make but recent events mean that the ''opposition kettle'' and it supporters [both in country and abroad] can't call the the'' ruling government pot'' black. Also, the coalition is not currently in any trouble over alleged election fraud claims.

The mere fact that we are not really taking a more active role in the investigation sort of shows that.
I dis-agree. Malaysia did what it could but certain things it couldn't do; without the help and cooperation of others. There are probably various things that were done behind the scenes that will not reach the public domain: the fact we don't hear about it doesn't necessary mean Malaysia is not ''active''. For various reasons I believe letting others take charge of the MH17 investigation was the right and prudent move. Eastern Europe is not our backyard and countries we have good relations with have better or more influence in the region.

Yet, if it turns out that the US-backed Kiev government was responsible for the MH17 disaster, I'm not certain how our government will react.
At the end of the day Malaysia has a tough balancing act to perform; with regards to its relations with various other countries. Irrespective of whether decisions taken are sound and are driven by realpolitik; there will still be local and foreign detractors insisting that these decisions are flawed and don't benefit Malaysia.
 
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is this supposed to mean a NATO air strikes against rebel targets ? or 'friendly allies' of Ukraine helping with Air Strikes ? please provide the transcript as soon as it is available , im interested , thanks..
Sounds interesting but might be wishful thinking or intentional ambiguity disguising the lack of real aid. We need specifics.Otherwise it's just words.
Thanks for updates Feanor esp regarding found info re; 17th Arm and 93rd Mech.

Listen here; http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/audio/audio_2014_09/20140904_140904h-en.MP3
Articles of the same
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/nato-summit-2014-nato-members-precision-guided-weapons-210436386.html
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nato-summit-2014-nato-members-provide-precision-guided-weapons-ukraine-1464067

Nato member states are to provide Ukraine with precision-guided weapons, both lethal and non-lethal, which will be available to the country within 36 hours.

While the details are as yet unreleased, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko confirmed that "it concerns aid in military-technical cooperation, as lethal and non-lethal weapons, including precision guided weapons".


5 tanks from the 72nd Mech were engaged by rebels and Russian tanks near Starobeshevo. They were offered a chance to surrender, friendly arty ignored calls for fire, so the tankers abandoned the tanks and left. (*personal comment - this could be the 5 tanks abandoned at Starobeshevo and proudly displayed by the rebels).

Some of the conscripts rebelled. Their btln of 300 had 8 BMPs, and 4 mortars. It was ordered to attack Starobeshevo, against prepared rebel and Russian military positions. They refused. They were then threatened with fire from friendly Grad units.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/977797.html
You have any more sources on this recent story of the 72nd mech?
 

dprijadi

New Member
Some of the conscripts rebelled. Their btln of 300 had 8 BMPs, and 4 mortars. It was ordered to attack Starobeshevo, against prepared rebel and Russian military positions. They refused. They were then threatened with fire from friendly Grad units.
feanor , if this is true , then i assume the morale of Ukie's units are already gone , 'rebeling' or 'disobeying' order in wartime and then get threatened by their own artilery ? this is so unbelievable , how can the higher ups of Ukie military retain any sort of loyalty from their soldiers ? :eek:
 

TankovayaVoyska

New Member
is this supposed to mean a NATO air strikes against rebel targets ? or 'friendly allies' of Ukraine helping with Air Strikes ? please provide the transcript as soon as it is available , im interested , thanks..

i just hope the frog jumped out of the slowly boiling water before calamity :D

some update : September 4th 23:53 UTC/ZULU Ukraine SITREP: The Vineyard of the Saker: September 4th 23:53 UTC/ZULU Ukraine SITREP: Maybe, just maybe?
The list notes 19 T-84U Oplots. I thought UA didn't have any T-84s to begin with?
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
It going to be interesting to see just what the terms are or aren't. Yahoo didn't specify what the parties had agreed to, or what the terms of the cease fire are. If they follow Putin's suggestion, then we'll have a good idea of who got what here. Long term, this probably isn't going to be good for Russia, though, in my opinion.
 
It going to be interesting to see just what the terms are or aren't. Yahoo didn't specify what the parties had agreed to, or what the terms of the cease fire are. If they follow Putin's suggestion, then we'll have a good idea of who got what here. Long term, this probably isn't going to be good for Russia, though, in my opinion.
I don't think it's fully fleshed out, apart from the basic principles.
- Prisoner exchange - Russian ambassador in Kiev mentions 1000+ on each side
- Humanitarian aid corridors established. To affected areas
- Military hardware withdrawal on both sides (from where, to where?)

Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels agree ceasefire deal | Reuters

""The ceasefire does not mean the end of (our) policy to split (from Ukraine)," Igor Plotnitsky, a leader of the Luhansk region, told reporters."

http://rt.com/news/185456-ukraine-peace-plan-talks/

The question of the status of the two regions was not a priority, DNR Prime Minister Aleksandr Zakharchenko told reporters after the meeting. "It's not so important. The most important thing now is to stop the bloodshed,” he said.

Key issues to sort, it would seem.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Nato member states are to provide Ukraine with precision-guided weapons, both lethal and non-lethal, which will be available to the country within 36 hours.

While the details are as yet unreleased, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko confirmed that "it concerns aid in military-technical cooperation, as lethal and non-lethal weapons, including precision guided weapons".
Yes, I know that Poroshenko said so. I don't believe him. We need real evidence. Remember Poroshenko also promised to lower certain taxes when he was running for election....

You have any more sources on this recent story of the 72nd mech?
If you followed the link, the original story comes from a Ukrainian web-resource.

Бойцы батальона взбунтовалиÑÑŒ... | Politiko

The list notes 19 T-84U Oplots. I thought UA didn't have any T-84s to begin with?
To the best of my knowledge, a batch of 10 T-84 tanks was produced in 2000-2001. They were handed over to the military, which then couldn't pay for them so they technically remained property of the Kharkov tank factory. 2 of them were later sold to America. 1 was turned into an Oplot-M prototype, leaving ~7 tanks scattered around the country. A couple were at the general staff academy, a couple at some land forces training center, etc. No line army unit had any. The most elite armored formation, the 1st Tank Bde had ~70-80 T-64BM tanks. Everything else had T-64BV with expired ERA tiles (so essentially T-64Bs with some useless boxes on top).

The story picks up again with the Thailand contract which went from 200 tanks down to 49. It was originally reported as cancelled entirely, but then revised to 49 tanks. Rumor has it that US diplomatic intervention saved the contract, but I can't substantiate it so it could be nonsense. 5 tanks on that contract have been delivered already, and 5 more are planned for delivery this year. The production rate is laughable, and there are strong insinuations that there will be quality issues, just like with the BTR-4 contract. There was also some info coming out of the factory that they used old T-80U hulls for the new T-84 tanks. But again, not really well supported information. So far the customer isn't complaining.

Note while in the course of the current modernization Ukrainian T-80U tanks (iirc 3 of them were sighted) Ukrainian BMP-3s (at least a couple) were sighted, and even a T-72B was shown at some expo involving the National Guard. But no T-84s.

feanor , if this is true , then i assume the morale of Ukie's units are already gone , 'rebeling' or 'disobeying' order in wartime and then get threatened by their own artilery ? this is so unbelievable , how can the higher ups of Ukie military retain any sort of loyalty from their soldiers ? :eek:
It was gone to begin with. Remember the conscript revolts in garrisons? Remember the soldiers in the initial push to Slavyansk saying to the locals that they don't want to fight, and asking them to keep blocking them? This would be more of the same. The desertion rates are quite high, and there are many interviews with Ukrainian personnel that show that they have no faith in their high command, or the national leadership. Given the recent military disasters, it's not likely to improve.
 

TankovayaVoyska

New Member
Thanks Feanor for clearing up the T-84 thing.

So at least we now have a ceasefire. Granted Kiev is in troubled waters as a result, but with the fighting stopped for now, at least the crisis can shift to a more humanitarian tone.

Not sure how Kiev intends to recover from this. It's probable that they'll lose Eastern Ukraine entirely. I'm not sure what EU or US can do to pressure Russia to give concessions when the talks shift to the question of territorial integrity in the future, if they can at all. Sanctions haven't done much to deter Russia from supplying and basically fighting for the rebels. And even if somehow Kiev gets Eastern Ukraine back, I doubt they'd be able to do much to maintain control. No army, and the locals sure won't stand for it.
 

bdique

Member
No, that's a MotRifle battalion. Roughly 2 companies of MechInf in BMPs and a company of tanks with added support assets and missing some components like Feanor already described.

This only helps to end the conflict quicker if the Ukraine gives up. Russia underestimated the will of the Ukraine to fight before and if they are wrong again it will just escalate and broadsn the conflict.
Waylander, thanks, was not too familiar with the constitution of Russian army units, guess extrapolating from my own personal experience led to inaccuracies.

Btw1: sorry for slow reply, was out of country.
Btw2: seems like activity along the coast towards Mariupol has been quiet. Has the rebel advance there stalled?
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I don't think it's fully fleshed out, apart from the basic principles.
- Prisoner exchange - Russian ambassador in Kiev mentions 1000+ on each side
- Humanitarian aid corridors established. To affected areas
- Military hardware withdrawal on both sides (from where, to where?)

Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels agree ceasefire deal | Reuters

""The ceasefire does not mean the end of (our) policy to split (from Ukraine)," Igor Plotnitsky, a leader of the Luhansk region, told reporters."

http://rt.com/news/185456-ukraine-peace-plan-talks/

The question of the status of the two regions was not a priority, DNR Prime Minister Aleksandr Zakharchenko told reporters after the meeting. "It's not so important. The most important thing now is to stop the bloodshed,” he said.

Key issues to sort, it would seem.
Here's another source talking about the "NATO delivering precision-guided weapons" story. They think it's a result of misreading of transcriptions:

-NATO countries agreed to provide financial support to the fund being set up for Ukraine
-Poroshenko had bilateral discussions with each country, the topics of which included "military-technical cooperation, both in the area of lethal and non-lethal weapons, including high-precision weapons"
-Several nations individually pledged to provide treatment, medical equipment and medication to Ukraine (Estonia has already said they are treating wounded Ukrainian servicemen).

Someone conflated the first two items.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Here's another source talking about the "NATO delivering precision-guided weapons" story. They think it's a result of misreading of transcriptions:

-NATO countries agreed to provide financial support to the fund being set up for Ukraine
-Poroshenko had bilateral discussions with each country, the topics of which included "military-technical cooperation, both in the area of lethal and non-lethal weapons, including high-precision weapons"
-Several nations individually pledged to provide treatment, medical equipment and medication to Ukraine (Estonia has already said they are treating wounded Ukrainian servicemen).

Someone conflated the first two items.
As far as I can tell, president Poroshenko is the one who conflated the two items. ;)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Situation on the Front

Poroshenko and the rebels issue orders to observe the ceasefire.

http://newsru.com/world/05sep2014/protokol.html

Explosions were heard near or in Donetsk shortly after the ceasefire.

http://newsru.com/world/05sep2014/donetsk.html

Rebels report violations of the ceasefire from the government side, and government troops using the ceasefire as a chance to regroup and prepare a new offensive.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3745140.html

Meanwhile the rebels also violated the ceasefire, and ambushed a group of the btln Aydar. It's unclear whether the Aydar fighters were in rebel territory, or this is a rebel raid.

Warning extremely graphic images.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3744523.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3743307.html

Ukrainian troops also appear to be strengthening their positions near Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.

http://military-informant.com/index...tsii-vblizi-severodonetska-i-lisichanska.html

Allegedly a captured T-72B3, by Ukraine. Details and confirmation are lacking.

andrei-bt.livejournal.com/305520.html

A BTR-3E destroyed by Grad fire, near Tel'manovo yesterday.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1411564.html

Reports of Ukrainian tanks leaving the eastern part of Mariupol'.

http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/34...ynuly-vostochnuui-chast-maryupolia-zhurnalyst

However they (Ukrainian military, not MBTs specifically) seem to have returned, following the ceasefire.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1002139.html

A Ukrainian T-64BV damaged and left, near Novoazovsk.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/311359.html

A video interview with Russian volunteers in the Lugansk airport. Note their weapons and gear, they look fairly professional. They openly admit that they're all from Russia, some of them ex-VDV.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1054725.html

64 soldiers from L'vov deserted, turned in their weapons, and headed back to L'vov. They say they were lied to, promised rotation, but in reality left without support and would have all been killed had they not fled.

http://military-informant.com/index...nnye-iz-lvova-dezertirovali-s-polya-boya.html

Ukrainian troops, also prior to the ceasefire, briefly pushed the rebels out of Shirokino, then lost it again.

http://military-informant.com/index...a-predprinyali-popytku-shturma-shirokino.html

An interesting interview with a Ukrainian medic, from the volunteer MVD btln Mirotvorets. Most significant is that he describes a Russian military btln commander. The rest of the interview is an interesting read, but you'll have to translate it yourself, it's too long for me.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1409659.html

Ukrainian concrete roadblocks stopped a Ukrainian T-64BV from going anywhere.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1410737.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Armed Forces

Ukrainian government has been selling off military equipment as surplus, while telling their volunteer btlns that said equipment is unavailable, forcing them to buy it with their own money. Volunteer btlns report that they were asked to pay money for MoD equipment, that they should have been receiving for free.

http://military-informant.com/index...sprodazhu-vooruzheniya-i-boevoj-tekhniki.html

The National Guard is receiving new vehicles and is forming a tank unit.

http://military-informant.com/index...vye-btr-i-sozdala-tankovoe-podrazdelenie.html

Ukraine is digging border trenches with Russia. Allegedly the purpose is to protect Ukraine, but their practical value is 0.

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/212368.html

Near the top is a set of photos of improvised armored trucks for the Ukrainian military. Soviet-era armor is running out. Towards the bottom is an interesting set of photos, Ukrainian service members wounded in the war being transported to Germany.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3743165.html

Reports of the sale of 90 Iveco LMV to Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/army/6675-italiya-prodast-ukraine-90-bronemashin-smi.html

Ukrainian military officers will receive training in Australia.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/980677.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mini-update, the ceasefire is effectively over. Fighting around Mariupol' has resumed. Both sides seem to be blaming each other, but it's quite hazy who exactly started it. Given how scanty the defenses of Mariupol' are, if the rebels and Russia push hard and fast, they can take it.
 

dprijadi

New Member
did the rebels never attack frontally and always used ambush strategy to demoralize the ukraine army ? based on the news it seem the rebel prefer hit and run style combat and also artilery/rocket ambush , instead of frontal assault ( which might cost more casualties)

and feanor, your info on ukraine units deserting randomly like that, seems like their high command really lost control on the ground.. how can they fight the rebels if their troop quality like this ? i mean morally they already defeated..

seems like this will be still hot until next year.. i wonder what happened in winter time to both sides if they still in combat.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
did the rebels never attack frontally and always used ambush strategy to demoralize the ukraine army ? based on the news it seem the rebel prefer hit and run style combat and also artilery/rocket ambush , instead of frontal assault ( which might cost more casualties)
The rebels have conducted frontal assaults, even as long ago as the siege of Slavyansk, where they used armor for counter-attacks out of the city on at least two occasions.

and feanor, your info on ukraine units deserting randomly like that, seems like their high command really lost control on the ground.. how can they fight the rebels if their troop quality like this ? i mean morally they already defeated..
There have been a few incidents of late, including the Prikarpatye territorial btln fleeing all the way back home, the 61 deserters from the army, soldiers refusing orders to advance, etc. The rebel counter-attack around Ilovaysk has wreaked havoc on the southern front of the Ukrainian army, and the not-too disciplined to begin with conscripts are often unwilling to fight and die when they think their command is incompetent and their government corrupt.

seems like this will be still hot until next year.. i wonder what happened in winter time to both sides if they still in combat.
Maybe. Russia is under serious pressure to put an end to this.
 
OSCE published the basic signed 12 point plan. http://www.osce.org/ru/home/123258?download=true

Seems this round current round of economic sanctions have been approved and will be implemented tomorrow (Tuesday) BBC News - Ukraine crisis: EU to adopt new Russia sanctions soon - they are also reversible.

Russian federation has stated an asymmetrical response, particularly regarding the previously mentioned closure of Russian commercial airspace.

US not undertaking arms supplies to Ukraine, inspite of Lutsenko's (Petroshenkos 'advisor') announcement yesterday ITAR-TASS: World - US denies agreement on arms supplies to Kiev.

Relating to this - apparently a BBC journilst interviewed Poroshenko on Saturday, the day after the NATO summit joint press conference with Rasmussen.. when pushed further for actual details, he refused to name them.. hmm Poroshenko Refuses to Name NATO Countries Offering Kiev Military Aid | World | RIA Novosti
 
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