Ukranian Crisis

[Waylander]

The Odessa in incident was all over the news here, too. The main evening news show had it as their number one topic for example.

But that's an example of what I mean and Feanor is quite right in stating that the Russians tried to learn from the past when it comes to propaganda, although they habe defenitely overstepped the point where it comes ridicilous.

I don't know which kind of media the people comsume when they say that there is only onesided reporting on issues regarding Ukraine. It is so easy to find a myriad of opinions and analyses covering every imaginable viewpoint. This is not comparable to what is blurted out by the main russian media stations.

That most viewpoints in the West tend to critizise the Russian behaviour may be a sign that the majority just thinks that it is wrong. That doesn't make it propaganda.

Expecting even sided comments and news all the time is weird as it would mean that there is no mainly right or mainly wrong just shades of grey. And that's not realistic.

 

[Nick underscore]

Those who are very brave just stoped their current life and where there to fight and protect. A lot of rebels said that the final decision was made after the crimes in Odessa on may 2nd, when Kiev said that it was an accident. Btw I didnt see any outrage in europe about that, in fact I didnt see a lot of reaction at all, were those people lesser beings than the ones on the plane ?

You and any one else on this forum knows only what we read, we read different sources and no body knows who tell more truth. Western media complietely ignored Odessa May 2nd, so for I know who I will believe.

July 25th and now again in Sept.. You were told before, this incident was in most, if not all of the western media outlets.. Why don't you quit playing you're agenda and repeating the same rubbish and add to the discussion.

 

[Relboon]

July 25th and now again in Sept.. You were told before, this incident was in most, if not all of the western media outlets.. Why don't you quit playing you're agenda and repeating the same rubbish and add to the discussion.

Well I posted a link on some thoughts about Boeing crash, but I didn`t see any reply on it. I posted a large answer with videos in reply to Feanor`s post about the RF options, there was no reply.

 

[Feanor]

Sorry, didn't realise you were writing from the front lines in DNR/LNR nfloorl:
You and any one else on this forum knows only what we read, we read different sources and no body knows who tell more truth. Western media complietely ignored Odessa May 2nd, so for I know who I will believe.

There are statements from the Russian government that no Russian weapons are going to the conflict zone. This is an obvious and blatant lie. There are photos of equipment that could only have come from Russia, including an extremely rare MT-LB variant.

But that's an example of what I mean and Feanor is quite right in stating that the Russians tried to learn from the past when it comes to propaganda, although they habe defenitely overstepped the point where it comes ridicilous.

You're a very intelligent person who keeps up with contemporary international politics, and consequently the propaganda comes off as ridiculous. But to a giant population that is not intelligent, does not keep up with politics, and doesn't even know basic history, that propaganda can be quite convincing. One of the problems with a liberal society is that it's not the smartest voice that gets heard, it's the loudest. 10 mentally handicapped children screaming for chocolate can silence a mathematics professor.

 

[Feanor]

Update - Situation on the Front

Ukrainian sources indicate that elements of the 30th Mech have escaped the encirclement. Hysteria about T-90s and BM-30s can be ignored. They likely saw T-72B3s, and were hit by BM-21s.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1404860.html

A video report from the Ukrainian side. Things in the south are bad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcy3UW4CrTY

A new rebel-sourced map. Note, it's quite inaccurate. To the best of my knowledge Volnovakha is still in government hands. The territory west of Mariupol' appears to be under nobody's control. There may be rebel scouts there.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3731392.html

Lugansk airport is in rebel hands, along with Lutugino.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/991463.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0rLeco0IIs
http://military-informant.com/index...voennye-otstupili-iz-aeroporta-g-lugansk.html
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/975427.html

Ukrainian casualties and captured gear. Top photo is from Lugansk, video is from Amvrosievka.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/09/blog-post_2.html

Wrecked T-64s. Location unknown.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/09/blog-post_79.html
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/09/blog-post_1.html

Novotroitskoe and Elenovka have fallen.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/397315.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bWKRbmpW10

Captured and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and arty.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224857&d=1409600203
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224856&d=1409599869
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224853&d=1409599402
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224854&d=1409599497
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224855&d=1409599570
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/990079.html

Two Ukrainian border guard boats, attempting to fire on rebel positions in Novoasvozk, were hit by some sort of long-range fire (cannon or missile). One was destroyed.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/975932.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOE7PB7oxUc
http://newsru.com/world/31aug2014/azovskoe.html

Warning extremely graphic images. White phosphorus burns, on a civilian in Shahtersk.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1052847.html

"Rebels" claim that they captured a BTR-4, that was subsequently destroyed. Ukrainian sources say it wasn't destroyed, but instead was taken to Russia. I put rebel in quotation marks because of the story reeking of spy games.

Apparently people dressed in police uniforms stopped the APC, which was returning to Kharkov for repairs to the combat module. They then hijacked it.

http://military-informant.com/index...ejshij-ukrainskij-bronetransporter-btr-4.html

Ukrainian troops breaking out of the encirclement claim they destroyed two T-72B3 tanks, and two BMD-2s. There is photo of the T-72B3 tanks. It's likely that the crews were Russian military.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/09/blog-post.html
http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/736814.html

Video of destroyed vehicles from Novosvetlovka. Note the video includes rebel, and government vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-SPEynF2bc

Unconfirmed report on 680 Ukrainian prisoners.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1403526.html

Rebels claim shootdown of one Su-27, and damage of two Mi-8s.

http://militarizm.livejournal.com/39423.html

A Russian military or rebel column, destroyed near Ilovaysk. One of the MT-LBs is an 6MA variant, meaning it could only have come from Russia.

http://roadcontrol.org.ua/node/2297

In Starobeshevo the rebels have taken 5 T-64BV tanks and one BMP-2 APC from the government troops. Ukrainian soldiers were allowed to leave peacefully on other BMP-2 vehicles.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/975081.html
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...m2!3m1!1s0x40e0dc609f70d421:0xed291b5ba7f9a58

A Ukrainian troop column trying to break out of encirclement got shot up.

http://jerry24-it.livejournal.com/390121.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - Armed Forces

A gigantic column of vehicles headed towards Lugansk from Krasnodon. These are not rebels. I tried to count the numbers of vehicles, but quickly lost count. There is a huge number of BMP-2s, a few MT-LBs (including MEDEVACs), a few BTR-80s, and some T-72s. Then a 2S3 SP howitzer, Ural trucks, Kamaz trucks, fuel trucks, some transporters carrying tanks...

Some of the T-72s have K-5 tiles. I didn't spot any B3 variants. This scale of intervention is staggering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uisl4gqfIl0

Ukrainian military and rebels. Note the ancient D-20 howitzer in rebel hands.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3725393.html

Another VDV soldier from Kostroma is reported missing, possibly fighting in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/russia/31aug2014/desantnik.html

There is info that Russian conscripts are being pressured to sign contracts to fight in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/russia/01sep2014/mothers.html

Russian opposition newspaper ran an article about a Russian VDV soldier who died in Ukraine. Confirmation on accuracy is impossible, but it seems legit.

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65075.html

An armored car donated to Ukrainian airmobile troops.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1404272.html

Ukrainian general HQ reports that they will create a guerilla resistance movement.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/990477.html

Ukrainian National Security Council says they're conducting both official and unofficial negotiations to get Ukrainians prisoners released.

http://newsru.com/world/02sep2014/plen.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - General Background.

DNR representatives have attended the Minsk talks where they demanded special status for their republic. They want their own armed forces, unconditional amnesty, power to appoint judges and procurators, and local elections.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/987552.html
http://newsru.com/world/01sep2014/minsk.html

Chairmen of the OSCE opines that the future of Ukraine may be very dark.

http://newsru.com/world/02sep2014/ukrscenario.html

Support for annexation of Crimea, and willingness to pay for it financially has decreased in Russian society.

http://newsru.com/russia/02sep2014/survey.html

Slovakia has began reverse deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/991591.html

 

[narvi]

I've seen two sources (twitter and liveuamap) claiming that there will be NATO exercises in western UA this month, including US and UK forces. Anyone got confirmation of this?

If this will happen things may get messy, it will be a perfect opportunity for provocations.

 

[Waylander]

You're a very intelligent person who keeps up with contemporary international politics, and consequently the propaganda comes off as ridiculous. But to a giant population that is not intelligent, does not keep up with politics, and doesn't even know basic history, that propaganda can be quite convincing. One of the problems with a liberal society is that it's not the smartest voice that gets heard, it's the loudest. 10 mentally handicapped children screaming for chocolate can silence a mathematics professor.

You are quite right although I want to highlight that like in bad old days the Russian propaganda may have the desired effect onto their own population these days it seems to have quite the opposite effect onto the foreign audience.

Due to it being so much over the top and being full of blatant lies the general mood in the west leans heavily against Russia. I think we reached a point were the damage which is done to the east-west relations is going to need many years to get repaired. I just can't see the gains Putin gets outweight this.

 

[BlueRose]

Update - Armed Forces

A gigantic column of vehicles headed towards Lugansk from Krasnodon. These are not rebels. I tried to count the numbers of vehicles, but quickly lost count. There is a huge number of BMP-2s, a few MT-LBs (including MEDEVACs), a few BTR-80s, and some T-72s. Then a 2S3 SP howitzer, Ural trucks, Kamaz trucks, fuel trucks, some transporters carrying tanks...

Some of the T-72s have K-5 tiles. I didn't spot any B3 variants. This scale of intervention is staggering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uisl4gqfIl0

That has to be Russian, that's the Big Boy convoy. I wonder why they would use such a large number of men, when the front is stable at the moment.

 

[Feanor]

That has to be Russian, that's the Big Boy convoy. I wonder why they would use such a large number of men, when the front is stable at the moment.

People more patient then myself did the counting.

26 BMP-2s
8 MT-LBs
12 T-72Bs (some B3 apparently)
1 2S3 Akatsiya
1 BTR-80
12 Ural
32 Kamaz (including 12 fuel trucks)
4 ZiL-131 (all fuel trucks)
1 GaZ-66
5 other

~100 vehicles total.

 

[Waylander]

They don't want a stable frontline. They want the UA on the run.
Seperatist forces must be quite thin with all the additional areas they brought under control and they may lack the manpower and strength to advance any further and hit the UA hard.

Quite old school russian principle as in supporting success. A fresh Russian Echelon hitting what remains of the UA lines, penetrating them and gobbling several already weakened UA units up from the rear and flank may very well be able to disable or cripple a disproportionate number of UA units.

 

[alexkvaskov]

...including an extremely rare MT-LB variant.

Can you provide a link please? I would like to see that MTLB

 

[alexkvaskov]

People more patient then myself did the counting.

26 BMP-2s
8 MT-LBs
12 T-72Bs (some B3 apparently)
1 2S3 Akatsiya
1 BTR-80
12 Ural
32 Kamaz (including 12 fuel trucks)
4 ZiL-131 (all fuel trucks)
1 GaZ-66
5 other

~100 vehicles total.

Looks like we can expect another major "rebel" advance soon. Is there any particular reason so many BMPs are being supplied?

 

[BlueRose]

Update - Armed Forces

A gigantic column of vehicles headed towards Lugansk from Krasnodon. These are not rebels. I tried to count the numbers of vehicles, but quickly lost count. There is a huge number of BMP-2s, a few MT-LBs (including MEDEVACs), a few BTR-80s, and some T-72s. Then a 2S3 SP howitzer, Ural trucks, Kamaz trucks, fuel trucks, some transporters carrying tanks...

Some of the T-72s have K-5 tiles. I didn't spot any B3 variants. This scale of intervention is staggering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uisl4gqfIl0

Ukrainian military and rebels. Note the ancient D-20 howitzer in rebel hands.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...

Another VDV soldier from Kostroma is reported missing, possibly fighting in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Åùå îäèí êîñòðîìñêîé äåñàíòíèê ïðîïàë áåç âåñòè

There is info that Russian conscripts are being pressured to sign contracts to fight in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñîëäàò-ñðî÷íèêîâ çàñòàâëÿþò ïîäïèñûâàòü êîíòðàêòû äëÿ âîçìîæíîé îòïðàâêè íà Óêðàèíó, ðàññêàçàëè ìàòåðè òóëüñêèõ âîåííîñëóæàùèõ

Russian opposition newspaper ran an article about a Russian VDV soldier who died in Ukraine. Confirmation on accuracy is impossible, but it seems legit.

«

An armored car donated to Ukrainian airmobile troops.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Броневичок Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð´ÐµÑантников

Ukrainian general HQ reports that they will create a guerilla resistance movement.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Генштаб ÑоздаÑÑ‚ партизанÑкое движение

Ukrainian National Security Council says they're conducting both official and unofficial negotiations to get Ukrainians prisoners released.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÍÁÎ: ïåðåãîâîðû ïî îñâîáîæäåíèþ ïëåííûõ óêðàèíñêèõ âîåííûõ âåäóòñÿ îôèöèàëüíî è íåîôèöèàëüíî

People more patient then myself did the counting.

26 BMP-2s
8 MT-LBs
12 T-72Bs (some B3 apparently)
1 2S3 Akatsiya
1 BTR-80
12 Ural
32 Kamaz (including 12 fuel trucks)
4 ZiL-131 (all fuel trucks)
1 GaZ-66
5 other

~100 vehicles total.

I would've figured that they would wait till late fall/winter to make contributions on this scale. I'd say this particular convoy, along with the other Rebel forces present; will try to Rush the main roads toward Slavyansk. I assume there are probably more convoys like this assembling at the moment. According to a NovoRossiyan source, they "Refurbished" these from Ukrainian armories. Though, I will call out their lie on this.

If this type of buildup continues... They just need to go ahead and invade fully and get it over with. Too many lives and infrastructure is at stake. This current type of tactic is no better than Euro-Maidan. I'm more sympathetic to Russia in this, but this really needs to have a nail in the coffin.

 

[Feanor]

Can you provide a link please? I would like to see that MTLB

I did in my last update. It's a badly burned MT-LB 6MA. It's missing the front little turret, and instead has a BTR-80 turret in the rear of the hull. Here it is again, the first photo is the MT-LB in question. It's a Muromteplozavod upgrade for the MT-Lb that was ultimately passed by the MoD in favor of the variant with the BTR-82A turret.

Под ИловайÑком разбили колонну роÑÑийÑких деÑантников на БМД (ФОТО) | Дорожный контроль | Ð’Ñе о нарушениÑÑ… ГÐИ

I would've figured that they would wait till late fall/winter to make contributions on this scale. I'd say this particular convoy, along with the other Rebel forces present; will try to Rush the main roads toward Slavyansk. I assume there are probably more convoys like this assembling at the moment. According to a NovoRossiyan source, they "Refurbished" these from Ukrainian armories. Though, I will call out their lie on this.

The only armory with those quantities of vehicles, that's even remotely within rebel reach, is in Artemovsk and it's still in government hands.

Looks like we can expect another major "rebel" advance soon. Is there any particular reason so many BMPs are being supplied?

It's a Motor-Rifle Btln. It has that many BMPs by TOE. This column looks like a well supplied, standard Russian Army BTG. I'm assuming we don't see the entire convoy, so actually there's probably ~5-10 more BMP-2s, a few more BTR-80s (probably an attachment maybe recon is riding in those) a few more 2S3 (probably 5 more for a battery of 6) etc.

 

[crest]

I would've figured that they would wait till late fall/winter to make contributions on this scale. I'd say this particular convoy, along with the other Rebel forces present; will try to Rush the main roads toward Slavyansk. I assume there are probably more convoys like this assembling at the moment. According to a NovoRossiyan source, they "Refurbished" these from Ukrainian armories. Though, I will call out their lie on this.

If this type of buildup continues... They just need to go ahead and invade fully and get it over with. Too many lives and infrastructure is at stake. This current type of tactic is no better than Euro-Maidan. I'm more sympathetic to Russia in this, but this really needs to have a nail in the coffin.

If i had to take a guess this escalation is a twofold strategy

1 to put pressure on the U.A to come to terms before any military support is given and to end the conflict before more sanctions are applied. Taking the maximum number of troops,equipment and keeping the pressure on a broken and demoralized army is just part of this objective they will also want to control militarily strategic and economically important locations.

2 to gain a better bargaining position for when negotiations do take place, It would be a much better and add a degree of legitimacy to the east if they "gave territory back"
return all captured troops, and by give back territory i mean areas that wont be under special status.

Ironic as it may seem to some this escalation may do more to bring the shooting part of this conflict to a end then anything else. Barring either significant outside military and economic backing or a government takeover in the east by truly radical hardliners. I would guess were seeing the end of this phase of this conflict

 

[dprijadi]

feanor , i dont get it.. the current escalation by the pro-russian rebels.. are they trying to gobble up territory before they finally agreed to some kind of 'line' dividing east and west ukraine ? what do you think their real target on the ground is ? i doubt it is kiev.. Total destruction of Ukraine Military ?

 

[bdique]

People more patient then myself did the counting.

26 BMP-2s
8 MT-LBs
12 T-72Bs (some B3 apparently)
1 2S3 Akatsiya
1 BTR-80
12 Ural
32 Kamaz (including 12 fuel trucks)
4 ZiL-131 (all fuel trucks)
1 GaZ-66
5 other

~100 vehicles total.

That's a brigade minus sized mechanised force. That will be a big headache for the UA.

 

[Waylander]

No, that's a MotRifle battalion. Roughly 2 companies of MechInf in BMPs and a company of tanks with added support assets and missing some components like Feanor already described.

This only helps to end the conflict quicker if the Ukraine gives up. Russia underestimated the will of the Ukraine to fight before and if they are wrong again it will just escalate and broadsn the conflict.