The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Feanor

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Feanor said:
Nobody in Ukraine will hold a referendum on the end of the war, much less allow for such a referendum to have any organized pro-Russian sympathizers campaigning to end the war on or close to Russia's terms.
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An afterthought on this one. Actually I think I'm wrong here. Such a referendum is entirely possible but unlikely to be the deciding factor. In my opinion such a referendum, if it occurs, will be done to justify a pre-decided course of action. There's no scenario where Ukraine's government wants to keep fighting but holds the referendum and chooses to take a Russian peace deal because of popular opinion. I also think the opposite is likely true. If the government decides continued hostilities are not an option, they won't let popular opinion prevent them for signing the peace treaty they think they need to sign.
 
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personaldesas

Active Member
Feanor said:
An afterthought on this one. Actually I think I'm wrong here. Such a referendum is entirely possible but unlikely to be the deciding factor. In my opinion such a referendum, if it occurs, will be done to justify a pre-decided course of action. There's no scenario where Ukraine's government wants to keep fighting but holds the referendum and chooses to take a Russian peace deal because of popular opinion. I also think the opposite is likely true. If the government decides continued hostilities are not an option, they won't let popular opinion prevent them for signing the peace treaty they think they need to sign.
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This seems plausible to me, but I find it curious that a referendum like this would be decided by everyone except the people actually in the region in question.
 
Feanor

Feanor

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personaldesas said:
This seems plausible to me, but I find it curious that a referendum like this would be decided by everyone except the people actually in the region in question.
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A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this. So back to the question of the choice and agency Ukrainian have, they have some but their options are limited. There will be a point in time, likely in the next 12 months, when public opinion will swing across the 50% mark for people who are willing to end the war at the cost of some territorial concessions. This is assuming current trends hold. I don't think that will trigger a change of heart in the leadership.
 
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personaldesas

Active Member
Feanor said:
A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this.
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I'd wager that's true of most referendums, on all sides. Everyone's only for a referendum when they expect to win it.

Feanor said:
So back to the question of the choice and agency Ukrainian have, they have some but their options are limited. There will be a point in time, likely in the next 12 months, when public opinion will swing across the 50% mark for people who are willing to end the war at the cost of some territorial concessions. This is assuming current trends hold. I don't think that will trigger a change of heart in the leadership.
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Normally I'd say that's what you elect a government for, to make these calls. But thats hard to argue for when there currently is not mechanism to vote for one.
 
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personaldesas

Active Member
Feanor said:
A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this.
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A hypothetical, just to probe Russia's position on this:

Russia is offered this deal. The war ends. The occupied territories are handed to a neutral international administration, Saarland-style. After some time, the people there vote fairly on whether to join Russia or Ukraine, and the territory goes to whichever side wins.

Do you think they would accept?

(I realize a lot might depends on the details: one vote for the whole area or separate votes per oblast or raion, and whether pre-war residents get a vote or only those living there now. But I'm deliberately leaving that open)
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Hoover said:
No, I don´t. Minsk was not followed by both fractions. Russia didn´t retreated their forces, the Luhansk and Donezk forces dind´t removed their heavy weapons out of the combat zones, and Ukraine didn´t, too. Both sides never had any intentions to fulfill the Minsk treaties.
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Well, the Russians were a bit more blatant by using elements of 8th Gds Army in the conflict. Whats new ?
 
Feanor

Feanor

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personaldesas said:
A hypothetical, just to probe Russia's position on this:

Russia is offered this deal. The war ends. The occupied territories are handed to a neutral international administration, Saarland-style. After some time, the people there vote fairly on whether to join Russia or Ukraine, and the territory goes to whichever side wins.

Do you think they would accept?

(I realize a lot might depends on the details: one vote for the whole area or separate votes per oblast or raion, and whether pre-war residents get a vote or only those living there now. But I'm deliberately leaving that open)
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Do I think Russia's leadership will accept? No. I would be very surprised if they did. They would likely claim they already conducted referendums. Which is kind of the point. Ukraine's government, underneath it all, is not that different from Russia's. And this shouldn't be surprising. Both were born out of the same Soviet Union, both were run by robber barons after the collapse.
 
Hoover

Hoover

Active Member
Ukraine is still at a net loss, and the areas they have made gains are still front line areas, at best near-rear. I don't expect Ukraine will have the opportunity to recover many Russian fallen. But I guess we will see.
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Most of the Ukrainian gains in territory are a clearance of the "grey zone". Yes, the UA has reacptured (or liberated) more territory than lost to the Russian invaders this yeas, but like I said, most were contested areas held by both or by nobody.
A lot of these grey zones were areas where small groups or even individual Russian soldiers, who sneaked forward to take a nise drone photo waving the Russian flag. Most of these areas never were occupied or even secured by the Russians.

But if course, they are nice press informations. Every victory is good for the supporters and the morale for the own side.
 
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personaldesas

Active Member
Hoover said:
Most of the Ukrainian gains in territory are a clearance of the "grey zone". Yes, the UA has reacptured (or liberated) more territory than lost to the Russian invaders this yeas, but like I said, most were contested areas held by both or by nobody.
A lot of these grey zones were areas where small groups or even individual Russian soldiers, who sneaked forward to take a nise drone photo waving the Russian flag. Most of these areas never were occupied or even secured by the Russians.

But if course, they are nice press informations. Every victory is good for the supporters and the morale for the own side.
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If those areas were never really Russian-held, then Russia's earlier claimed gains were inflated by the same amount.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Feanor said:
Do I think Russia's leadership will accept? No. I would be very surprised if they did. They would likely claim they already conducted referendums. Which is kind of the point. Ukraine's government, underneath it all, is not that different from Russia's. And this shouldn't be surprising. Both were born out of the same Soviet Union, both were run by robber barons after the collapse.
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When was Russia's last election where the outcome was less than 100% certain?
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
swerve said:
When was Russia's last election where the outcome was less than 100% certain?
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If your point is that Russia's referendums are thoroughly untrustworthy, then yes of course. Sorry, I assumed it went without saying, having said it many times before, but yes Russia's referendums in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson, are laughable. Even the one in Crimea was certainly falsified (unnecessarily so).
 
Hoover

Hoover

Active Member
swerve said:
When was Russia's last election where the outcome was less than 100% certain?
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1991, when Boris Yelzin was elected 1st time. It was quite a fair democratic election. 1996 was already questionable in the freedom of of the opposition. Putin never was elected in any democratic way.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Feanor said:
If your point is that Russia's referendums are thoroughly untrustworthy, then yes of course. Sorry, I assumed it went without saying, having said it many times before, but yes Russia's referendums in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson, are laughable. Even the one in Crimea was certainly falsified (unnecessarily so).
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More this -
Ukraine's government, underneath it all, is not that different from Russia's
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Ukraine is, at least, partly democratic. Elections have been won by opposition parties, & elected representatives can & do openly disagree with the government & have sometimes been a check on it. Russia's isn't at all democratic, & hasn't been for more than 25 years. There is no elected opposition left, & almost no open opposition outside electoral politics. Freedom of speech? Press freedom?
 
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