I don't disagree, but let's not forget who put that ladder there. Russia can step off whenever it wants and the war is over. Ukraine can't. Its only way down is a shattering fall.
They both have a very different set of options on there.
This is simply not true. Ukraine could have chosen not to attack civilian shipping. Russia's attacks on Odessa were of limited impact at best before the campaign against civilian shipping took off. Ukraine opened the Overton window a little wider. The same goes for attacks on civilian trucks. I think the lesson here is that despite people repeatedly claiming that Russia has nowhere left to escalate, this is really not true. Russia continues to have escalation options, and there are reasons to be careful with how Ukraine chooses to escalate.
I do think Ukraine is strategically in a dead end. Don't escalate, and they're on a slowly losing path. Do escalate, and face potentially far greater Russian retaliation. This is why I think Ukraine, in a big picture sense, needs to get the best deal they can now, and by now I do mean near future. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable or pleasant deal. It will require giving up substantial territory permanently, and accepting a painful new reality. But it will provide an exit out of this strategic dead end. Ukrainian leadership prefers to kick the can down the road and hope for some sort of force majeure to provide an opening for a better deal in the future. It's a dangerous gamble with a real potential for significant additional damage, and further problems.
