The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
More expert interpretation of the epic interceptor drones and complex math applications, the deal that changes everything:



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Imagine thinking that one can exchange some cheap drones with questionable performance (see one of my previous posts) - that one likely doesn't have (enough of - to begin with) for the Patriot interceptors that the US fully controls distribution of, has shortage of, and:



In the meantime in Odessa, the rapid gun fire (from the magic interceptor drones, I presume?) successfully downing buckets of Geran UAVs that are slamming all over the place.


Zelensky in response to Rubio’s liar comment says that it all basically depends on one’s interpretation:


Digging his own hole. How anyone can stand the guy is beyond my comprehension.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
When the premise is unachievable, it's nearly impossible to look at the scenario. Unless, of course, the whole point it's just a call to arms for EU/NATO against Russia.
That’s a pretty bizarre leap.

I also find interesting your: "This conflict" below... "Reason" like... Hegseth reason... or like "King & Country" reason?
I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say there. I meant “reasoning” in the normal sense: drawing inferences and reaching conclusions. Not sure what the Hegseth / “King & Country” detour is meant to address.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
More expert interpretation of the epic interceptor drones and complex math applications, the deal that changes everything:

What an awfully written text. I checked the guy out: 300k followers.
That this kind of thing now passes for “reporting” or “journalism” says quite a lot. No wonder people are increasingly unable to inform themselves properly if they treat this sort of hysterical, breathless posting as serious informative media consumption.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is this really how people reason about this conflict?
It's how this persons reasons about it...

In general FB is a valuable source, he's often confirmed Russian aviation losses when other sources are silent. He's also a professional, a Russian combat jet pilot (though I believe he's not currently serving) with experience from Syria. So his commentary on things related to Russian combat aviation is in my opinion valuable and insightful. I wanted to provide it more as a good example of some of the pessimism that the last couple of months have led to in some pro-Russian circles. Don't forget, he has quite the audience. And to be clear he's hinted that he's in favor of some sort of peace along the current front line before.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
That’s a pretty bizarre leap.



I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say there. I meant “reasoning” in the normal sense: drawing inferences and reaching conclusions. Not sure what the Hegseth / “King & Country” detour is meant to address.
"Bizarre" indeed....
Like:
~close to a decisive outcome... Like a peace agreement better than Istanbul?
~A Russian-occupied or Russia-aligned Ukraine... I thought the whole point was actually being "bizarre".
~a particularly stable end state... You mean we turning Ukraine into another Libya?
~more costly for Europe... What about for Ukraine?
~continuing to support Ukraine now. To the last Ukrainian soldier, that "decisive outcome"?

A reasonable interpretation of a bizarre point or a bizarre interpretation of a reasonable point? Should we fight Russia now because it is going to invade Europe... or should we fight the US because it will invade Greenland?


About "reason", what reason, when?
Reason applied only to this conflict? Only to that individual? FB is not a prominent member of a government? Reason applied to the US selling WMD in Iraq and the rest the rest of the world buying it? Reason about the Russian invasion or reasons?
He (FB) is one individual with his (very, if you like) personal point of view, I would expect Hegseth to reason, not him. (Actually, not Hegseth.)
When did reason ever existed?

I don't think we can see all his (FB) reasoning (or lack of) just because of that fragment of a post. I think we are selling a fairy tale about the war in Ukraine (not to mention its relation to other conflicts), some of my friends try to find more information or try to contrast that information. Some are interested in the next match of their favourite football team, I wouldn't expect any kind of reasonable comment about the war from them; I am certain that they don't expect any rational comment about football from me.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
What an awfully written text. I checked the guy out: 300k followers.
That this kind of thing now passes for “reporting” or “journalism” says quite a lot. No wonder people are increasingly unable to inform themselves properly if they treat this sort of hysterical, breathless posting as serious informative media consumption.
The guy has a book too. Has to be a good read. Laughing.

It’s on people though, if they are unable to inform themselves properly, no? Beyond the basic understanding of the subject matter, one should be able to catch a simple clue, no? For instance, that guy says that these drones cost $2,100 each, while the Patriot missiles they are replacing cost $3.9M each, and in exchange for these drones Ukraine is looking to get the Patriot missiles. All in short 3 consecutive sentences. You should read his post about the deal Zelensky made with Qatar! Or probably any other post, lol (I only read the two, somewhat).

In real life, the Qatari statement:

“The agreement includes collaboration in technological fields, development of joint investments and the exchange of expertise in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems,” Qatar’s Defence Ministry said in a statement during Zelenskyy’s visit.


On the subject of people unable to inform themselves, from the same article:

“Ukraine is offering a cheap way of countering Iranian drones. Ukraine has been doing that for the past three and a half years because Russia has been firing Shahed drones since September 2023 at least, and it’s been downing them nearly every day,” said Al Jazeera’s Dmitry Medvedenko, reporting from Doha.

“The Gulf has been using Patriot and THAAD missiles primarily so far to down Iranian missiles and drones. Each Patriot missile costs almost $4m, while Ukraine is offering its expertise in downing drones for about $2,000 each.”[…]

Kyiv has proposed swapping its interceptors for the vastly more expensive air-defence missiles that Gulf countries are using to down Iranian drones. Kyiv says it needs more of them to fend off near-daily Russian missile attacks.[…]

The Patriots are “a much better solution” for countering Russia’s ballistic missiles, he said.


This is the stuff an average+ (well, pretty much everyone, less a margin of error) person reads and most/all outlets report the same stuff, as we discussed previously. And it basically says what the expert in question said in his exciting manner of expression. Here is what Zelensky said on the deal:

Details of what exactly Ukraine has agreed in the Gulf are slim.

“We are talking about a 10-year cooperation. We have already signed a relevant agreement with Saudi Arabia, we have just signed a similar agreement with Qatar, also for 10 years, we will sign one with the Emirates,” Zelensky said.

On the table are co-production of drones – with factories both in Ukraine and in the Gulf – and expertise sharing, he said, without providing specific information.

It is unclear what Kyiv gets in return, or whether the deals are anything more than simple arms-for-cash.

Zelensky, who had originally been pushing for expensive air defence missiles in return, said the agreements were worth “billions, not millions” to Ukraine.

“Specifically billions for our exporters – everyone will earn, Ukraine will earn, we won’t lose out.”



Production lines, billions of dollars, we won’t lose out (which probably means they will or nothing happens (like with euro agreements singed last year and prior), but…). This is the problem, not some amplifying dude on social media (though he certainly is part of it too).

Consider the advanced math here. He is offering 30K drones per month, which should be more than enough for several months in the Gulf, provided the reported launches of Shades of about 2,000 (or 4,500 on the upper estimates) so far and the advertised capabilities of the super interceptors. Why would anyone build any production lines? It’s nonsense, clearly. Also, it’s the cost of about 21 missiles launched by a Patriot system (based on prices from the articles cited above), which is good for less than one average serious Russian mixed air raid. Anyway…

To note, according to the most reliable trackers, the Odessa attack involved 20+ Gerans, a number (unspecified, but I didn’t dig further or checked later reports) of which kept flying further to attack other places. There are at least 7 impacts visible in the video I cited in the previous post alone, without any visible intercepts (the trackers reported 7+ impacts when I checked). There was another video from… some other smaller place (I don’t remember and not exactly relevant as it is likely a daily/regular occurrence) that also got trashed with no intercepts, but a lot of rapid fire (my guess is everything that flew hit).

The Ukrainians have allegedly been in the Middle East for ten days now (Zelensky said so on March 18, 150 or 200 experts). Has there been any noticeable difference in what is happening? Well, not really, not according to the reports (seems to be worse?). Of course, it could be that they have saved dozens of Patriot and THAAD interceptors in the process though. Laughing.


For the “Ukraine is a democracy” crew, the latest v-dem report published recently:

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IMG_4612.jpeg

The full report for those interested:


 

personaldesas

Active Member
The guy has a book too. Has to be a good read. Laughing.

It’s on people though, if they are unable to inform themselves properly, no? Beyond the basic understanding of the subject matter, one should be able to catch a simple clue, no? For instance, that guy says that these drones cost $2,100 each, while the Patriot missiles they are replacing cost $3.9M each, and in exchange for these drones Ukraine is looking to get the Patriot missiles. All in short 3 consecutive sentences. You should read his post about the deal Zelensky made with Qatar! Or probably any other post, lol (I only read the two, somewhat).
Yeah, 100%.

Honestly, even with zero understanding of the subject matter, the writing itself gives the game away. The tone, the breathlessness, the need to dramatize everything.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
"Bizarre" indeed....
Like:
~close to a decisive outcome... Like a peace agreement better than Istanbul?
~A Russian-occupied or Russia-aligned Ukraine... I thought the whole point was actually being "bizarre".
~a particularly stable end state... You mean we turning Ukraine into another Libya?
~more costly for Europe... What about for Ukraine?
~continuing to support Ukraine now. To the last Ukrainian soldier, that "decisive outcome"?

A reasonable interpretation of a bizarre point or a bizarre interpretation of a reasonable point? Should we fight Russia now because it is going to invade Europe... or should we fight the US because it will invade Greenland?


About "reason", what reason, when?
Reason applied only to this conflict? Only to that individual? FB is not a prominent member of a government? Reason applied to the US selling WMD in Iraq and the rest the rest of the world buying it? Reason about the Russian invasion or reasons?
He (FB) is one individual with his (very, if you like) personal point of view, I would expect Hegseth to reason, not him. (Actually, not Hegseth.)
When did reason ever existed?

I don't think we can see all his (FB) reasoning (or lack of) just because of that fragment of a post. I think we are selling a fairy tale about the war in Ukraine (not to mention its relation to other conflicts), some of my friends try to find more information or try to contrast that information. Some are interested in the next match of their favourite football team, I wouldn't expect any kind of reasonable comment about the war from them; I am certain that they don't expect any rational comment about football from me.
Sorry, this might be on me, but I genuinely don’t understand what you’re trying to say here. You seem to be jumping between several different points. If you’re making a concrete argument, I’m happy to engage with it. But as it stands, I’m not sure what your actual claim is.

I would suggest looking up the verb “reasoning,” as you seem to be conflating it with the noun “reason.” Maybe that clears things up.
 
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personaldesas

Active Member
It's how this persons reasons about it...

In general FB is a valuable source, he's often confirmed Russian aviation losses when other sources are silent. He's also a professional, a Russian combat jet pilot (though I believe he's not currently serving) with experience from Syria. So his commentary on things related to Russian combat aviation is in my opinion valuable and insightful. I wanted to provide it more as a good example of some of the pessimism that the last couple of months have led to in some pro-Russian circles. Don't forget, he has quite the audience. And to be clear he's hinted that he's in favor of some sort of peace along the current front line before.
I am not saying he is not a domain-expert, but all the more reason it surprises me that someone with that background would frame it that way.

Let me rephrase my question: is this actually a widely held view, that the conflict could come down to a kind of race to WMD use? Or is that more of a fringe / pessimistic take within certain circles?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Sorry, this might be on me, but I genuinely don’t understand what you’re trying to say here. You seem to be jumping between several different points. If you’re making a concrete argument, I’m happy to engage with it. But as it stands, I’m not sure what your actual claim is.

I would suggest looking up the verb “reasoning,” as you seem to be conflating it with the noun “reason.” Maybe that clears things up.
I used "rational" too.

"Whether containing that outcome would be significantly costlier for Europe over time than continuing to support Ukraine now."
"That’s a pretty bizarre leap." I do agree.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I am not saying he is not a domain-expert, but all the more reason it surprises me that someone with that background would frame it that way.

Let me rephrase my question: is this actually a widely held view, that the conflict could come down to a kind of race to WMD use? Or is that more of a fringe / pessimistic take within certain circles?
Given some of Zelensky's recent statements about nuclear weapons, I understand how people think this might be the case. I don't know if the view is held widely, but this isn't the only time I've come across this view. I certainly don't think WMD escalation is out of the question, though I do think it's unlikely.

EDIT: A great piece on Russian economic development in occupied areas. I think it lines up with some of what I've been saying. Russia needs this area to have a population and an economy to make this work. It will take considerable investment, but it will also require improving conditions for people to be able to return. Ports and mines, farms and factories, all require labor. And Russia already has a shortage at home, and a demographic problem.

 
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personaldesas

Active Member
I used "rational" too.

"Whether containing that outcome would be significantly costlier for Europe over time than continuing to support Ukraine now."
"That’s a pretty bizarre leap." I do agree.
I honestly don’t know exactly what point you think you’re rebutting, but it seems its one you’ve constructed rather than one I made. There’s not much to gain from continuing this, so I’ll leave it there.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
So...

Anyone knows what happened with those unnamed sources (FT paywall) and the Russian businessmen contributions? Four days now and no journalist seems to follow up the news or publish anything new about it.

Edit.
Apart from Igor Sechin (Rosneft) suggesting the issue of war bonds. Ukraine already issued war bonds.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Front line-wise things are continuing mostly as they have been. Russia keeps gaining ground in the Druzhkovka and Nikolaevka areas, and also along various border areas. Around Kupyansk Russia continues to steadily gain ground east of of the river, and the center of town remains a contested mess. Ukraine attempted another big push southward in the eastern Zaporozhye area with the 425th Assault Rgt but it appears to have failed miserably, and Russia regained quite a bit of poorly held ground, pushing northward again. I don't think Ukraine is done attacking yet, so it remains to be seen how things ultimately play out. Other sections of the front line are mostly static. No large Russian spring offensive has materialized yet.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I wonder when is Hungary going to hint military actions against Ukraine. If Zelenski wants to join the EU, maybe he shouldn't be doing this:
"Hungary sends fact-finding mission over Druzhba pipeline as Kyiv refuses to recognize delegation"
and insist on it:
"Ukraine blocks EU mission to inspect Druzhba oil pipeline"
and, maybe, stop hitting that pipeline.
On the other hand, after blowing the Nordstream, maybe he thinks that he has a divine right to unrestricted (submarine) warfare.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
They are now killing 6,000 Russian troops every 4 days, but they keep coming:

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Zelensky wants a THAAD for Ukraine to shoot down Russian bombers:

IMG_4801.jpeg

Is anyone going to tell him? The guy just keeps making a fool out of himself.

Timothy Snyder has become a meme too. The guy used to be relevant a decade ago. And following the other dude I had already mentioned here previously:

IMG_4770.jpeg

I will have to dig a little, but I have a few of his other meme-worthy tweets. A few of his recent articles too. An interview to a UA outlet last September, for example:

Timothy Snyder: "Ukraine was home to Amazons, vast prehistoric cities, and the roots of languages spoken by half the world."

And McFaul still lives in the Russian universe, it appears:

IMG_4827.jpeg
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

By AMK's math, Russia had a net gain of ~135 sq kms in March. This is a very slow pace of advance, back to the pre-Avdeevka days in terms of net gain. There's still no sign of a Russian spring offensive. This comes despite continuing increases in Russian strike capabilities and capacity. For example, according to Ukrainian sources Russia averaged 258 gliding bombs dropped per day in March. In general Russia is still advancing but much slower than the recent ~500 sq kms per month we've seen before, and these modest numbers are spread among several areas, including fairly insignificant, at least at present, border incursions.


Northern Sumy-Chernigov area.

Russian forces continue to take pieces along the border, this time taking the Bachevsk border checkpoint and some area around it, near Sopich, and the village of Potapovka.


Russian Shahed strike on allegedly the 114th TerDef Bde, Mamekino, Chernigov region.


Sumy area.

From the north Russian forces have taken over Malaya Korchakovka and have gained ground south of Varachino down to the woods north of Novaya Sech'. From the east Russian forces have taken a chunk of ground south-east of Miropol'ye and have taken the village of Miropol'skoe, south of Miropol'ye.


Russia hits a Ukrainian UAV operator near Dumovka, Sumy region.


Russian Shahed strike on Ukrainian drone defense teams near Shostka, and Prokopovka. Russia has been regularly inserting small numbers of Shaheds with camears into the larger waves, and using them to engage air defenses.


Kharkov area.

Russian forces have entered Velikaya Pisarevka, continuing to advance southward along the Severskiy Donets river. Russian forces have also taken a patch of forest south-west of Volch'ya village, and have crossed the international border in a new area, east of the Volchansk area. East of there Russian forces have taken the Peschanoe area west of Degtyarnoe.


Russian strikes on allegedly a Ukrainian staging area in Beliy Kolodez.


Russian forces take out a RAK-SA-12 MLRS.


Ukrainian drone striking a rare Kamaz Tayfun-VDV MRAP in Belgorod region.


Kupyansk.

Russian positions confirmed to still exist on the right shore, center of Kupyansk. Meanwhile east of the Oskol Russian forces have taken large swaths of territory east, south, and south-west of Peschanoe. Ukraine's positions now form a fairly thin line along the Oskol river south of Kupyansk and in south-eastern Kupyansk, with some Russian penetrations happening even there. North of Kupyansk Russian forces have gained ground south-west of Dvurechenskoe, approaching Kolodezi. North-west of there Russian forces have continued to expand the frontage across the border, securing all of Chugunovka, and taking the village of Shevyakovka. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked out of the Ambarnoe-Khatnoe area towards Melovoe, regaining ground in a wedge towards the border.


Russian Chelnok UGV in the Kupyansk area.


Krasniy Liman area.

Russian forces have taken another trenchline east of Krasniy Liman, eliminating almost all Ukrainian presence east of the town. Meanwhile Ukrainain forces are re-infiltrating the Maslyakovka neighborhood.


Another web of fiber-optic drone cables in the Krasniy Liman area.


Russian bomb strikes on Slavyansk.


Seversk-Nikolaevka axis.

Russian forces have advanced into Kaleniki, taking the center of the village. Meanwhile a Ukrainian counter-attack has retaken a chunk of Ozernoe. Additionally there's information that Ukrainian presence still exists in Yampol', likely being supplied by drone drops. To put things into context, this counter-attack is an attempt to de-blockade those forces.


Battle damage to the Slavyansk powerplant in Nikolaevka.


Russian bomb strikes on Slavyansk. Targets include the hotel "Ukraine".


Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces have closed the no-man's land south of Bondanoe, north of Golubovka and are pushing up to the canal. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to try and re-capture Min'kovka.


Russian strikes on Kramatorsk.


Konstantinovka.

Russian forces have broken through to the center of Konstantinovka down another pathway, but there's no confirmation on consolidation.


Russia targets Ukrainian infantry with a combination of artillery and drones, Konstantinovka area.


Russian bomb strikes on Konstantinovka.


Allegedly a Ukrainian 2S1 taken out near Konstantinovka.


Some Russian drone strikes in Konstantinovka. Noteworthy targets include a pickup with infantry, a couple of larger Ukrainian drones, a couple of UGV (it appears the second has a person on it, possible evacuating a wounded), a SP howitzer (type unclear, an armored vehicle of some sort, and Ukrainian infantry in the open.


Aerial footage of Konstantinovka. The town is slowly being destroyed, and the damage is already substantial.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces continue to gain ground north of Pokrovsk. They've secured an area of country-side north of Grishino they also pushed west towards Biletskoe taking the treeline closest to the town. There is Russian penetration in Biletskoe itself, but no confirmed consolidation.


Russian strikes on the western outskirts of Grishino. The area is currently reported under Russian control.


A series of Russian strikes on Ukrainian vehicles in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd area.


Russian Lancet strikes take out what appear to be two tanks, and allegedly one artillery piece.


Ukrainian drone operations on the Pokrovsk-Selidovo road, where one drone strike fails, getting caught in the netting, and another one hits a Bukhanka van.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles on the streets of Mirnograd. It's a testament to the increase in the depth of the kill-zone that Russia hasn't collected these, despite Mirnograd being being the front lines at this point.


Russian drone strikes on the Pokrovsk-Pavlograd highway, anti-drone nets notwithstanding.


Russian Molniya and Zala Z-16 drone operations int he Dobropol'ye area.


Russian Giatsint-S operations, Dobropol'ye axis.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

3 Ukrainian POWs in Russian hands, allegedly near Novopavlovka.


Russian troops in presumably the rear area of this axis training for assault operations.


Russian Grad, Giatsint-B and D-30 operations, Dnepropetrovsk area. Given the low accuracy and extreme dispersion normal in current environments, the Grads are of questionable value.


Russian troops with an interceptor drone, Dnepropetrovsk area.


Eastern Zaporozhye.

Ukraine pushed southward but after a failed mechanized assault Russia counter-attacked recapturing large swathes of ground along the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk border. Russia recaptured half of Ternovoe, all of Zlagoda, and have re-entered Dnepropetrovsk region along the Yanchur river valley. Rybnoe, Privol'ye, and Kalinovskoe remain in the grey zone. West of the Gaychur Russian forces penetrated Boykovoe, and gained ground in Ternovatoe (not to be confused with Ternovoe east of the Yanchur near the Donetsk region border). West of Gulyaypole Russian forces have gained ground north and south of Gor'koe, pushing the front line towards Gulyaypole. Russian forces have also penetrated Verkhnyaya Tersa and Vozdvizhenka.


Ukraine launched a major mechanized assault by the 425th Skala Rgt. At least one M1 Abrams was destroyed, at least one M113, and one BMP. The attack failed, with large numbers of Ukrainian casualties. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian Grad, eastern Zaporozhye area.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian forces around Gor'koe.


Russian 2S3 from East MD in eastern Zaporozhye.


Zaporozhye area.

Russia has secured all of Lugovskoe village, just east of Belogor'ye. This area is about to merge with the eastern Zaporozhye front, as Russian forces push west of Gulyaypole. On the west side Russian forces have recaptured the area between Lukyanovskoe and Stepovoe, and is pushing into Pavlovka again.


Ukraine reportedly hit a school in Znamenka, where classes were still ongoing. 1 adult is reported killed, 2 wounded, and 7 children wounded. The dead is a Russian local government official, and he may have been the intended target. If so, it's a particularly callous strike, given the location.


Russia hit Zaporozhye city with a Tornado-S strike.


Ukraine hit Vasil'yevka, damaging a residential building and a gas station. 2 civilians are reported killed and 2 wounded.


A destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1, Zaporozhye area.


Dnepr front.

A Russian drone apparently struck a Ukrainian bus in Nikopol', killing 3 and wounding 12 civilians. Nikopol' sits on the Dnepr, along the place where the front line runs along it. So it's a city that's practically the front line, albeit in what is admittedly a quiet section of the front.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian police car in Kherson.


Russian strikes on Kherson. Targets unclear.


Ukrainian strikes on Aleshki killed one civilian traveling in a car, wounded one other, as well as damaging some residential buildings across the area. Note Aleshki is in essence the south-eastern suburb of Kherson city, and is effectively on the front line.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Black Sea/Crimea.

Russian Lancet drones hunting Ukrainian unmanned boats. One looks like it might be a CB90 converted into an unmanned platform.


A Ukrainian drone attempts to hit a Russian S-400 radar, but dips at the very end. It's unclear what the outcome is.


A series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea, they hit a long inactive An-72, a P-37 radar, and some buildings. Allegedly the buildings house Orion drones.


A Ukrainian drone strike takes out a Tornado MLRS, Crimea.


Ukraine attempted to strike a Russian 11356 frigate. The results of the strike are unclear, and the ship was involved in engaging drones.


Ukraine hit a Russian oil terminal in the port of Novorossiysk. Some of the drones hit nearby residential buildings. It's unclear if this and the strike on the frigate occurred as part of the same strike wave. 8 civilians are reported wounded.


Ukraine hit the fuel storage facility at Feodosiya again. It's been hit several times before and is at this reportedly point inoperable.


Ukraine hits the Slavyanin ferry again. Despite repeated strike on it, it remains operational, showcasing the limitations of small drones against large targets.


Ukraine hit a Russian grain transport ship in the Azov sea, destroying it. 9 sailors survived, 3 are missing.


Russia lost an Su-30SM over Crimea. Details are lacking, though the official statement is "crashed" which implies it wasn't brought down. This is of course not reliable.


Russia lost an An-26 over Crimea, that was carrying the Lt. Gen. Otroschenko, commander of the mixed Northern Fleet air group. It appears to be unrelated to combat action, but information is scarce. 6 crew and 23 passengers are reportedly dead.


More footage of the Kombat armored car with a drone defense team in Crimea.

 
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