The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I’d say it is a combination of mostly the first two in addition to the latter. But a medium to long-term war with Ukraine, where thousands of pieces of equipment get destroyed in the first two years was probably never on anyone’s bingo cards either.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Zelenski spent quite some time telling NATO to fight this war for him. My analysis is that he is delusional. I posted some article about him, his destiny and hubris.
Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war, that is my analysis. I posted some article about that too, like when a metro station is hit and we forget to mention that in front of that station there is a missile factory.
About being sarcastic... Being sarcastic about a fairy tale? Yes, I tend to agree. It could be that my style (tone?) is more sarcastic than academic; I am not a professor, after all.
For a guy who claims to be independently minded, you seem to be doing a good job of "carrying the water" for the RU MOD.

"Fighting to the last Ukrainian"
"Zelensky telling NATO to fight for him"
"Zelensky is delusional"
"Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war"

etc etc.

Why dont we examine these points in turn ?

"Fighting to the last Ukrainian" : a common trope pushed by conspiracy nuts, and Kremlin propagandists. Someone the "west" is forcing Ukraine to continue to fight, against their collective will. Reality: If Ukraine didnt want to fight, they wouldnt be fighting. The recent increase (by poll) for a negotiated end to the war is not surprising, but certainly does not indicate a desire to surrender.

"Zelensky telling NATO to fight for him": Zelensky is doing his job as a politician. He is vigorously asking for help and support. This should surprise no one. A serious western intervention would likely force Putin into a cease-fire.

"Zelensky is delusional": For what, not surrendering ? For asking for help ? For planning for future military purchases ? The future purchase of Grippen will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, but shows a long term NATO commitment to UK. Its a political statement, not a military one.

"Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war": "western" media may be accentuating the positive (from UK standpoint), but certainly is not as delusional as the RU point of view. If you want to protest biased media, do it in RU.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I read that in (paywall) The Times...
"Tusk stated that Ukraine has the right to attack Russian-linked targets anywhere in Europe"
So, Tusk is saying that Russia has the right (legal right?) to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe, right?

Well, he also mentioned that the European Convention on Human Rights is a bit "inconvenient" for some other issue...
We don't know exactly what he said. It's not a direct quote,

And what was he referring to, & in what context, re. the ECHR? And what exactly did he say? The ECHR is inconvenient for Viktor Orban, for example - but that doesn't mean that Tusk approves.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Zelenski spent quite some time telling NATO to fight this war for him. My analysis is that he is delusional. I posted some article about him, his destiny and hubris.
Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war, that is my analysis. I posted some article about that too, like when a metro station is hit and we forget to mention that in front of that station there is a missile factory.
About being sarcastic... Being sarcastic about a fairy tale? Yes, I tend to agree. It could be that my style (tone?) is more sarcastic than academic; I am not a professor, after all.
Putin started this war expecting a quick, easy & cheap victory - & you call Zelensky delusional! Ditto "destiny and hubris", where Putin is pushing the idea of sacred Mother Russia engaging in a divinely blessed (the Russian Orthodox church backs it) crusade against the corrupt & rotten west. And Russian media call Ukrainian attacks on anything & everything "terrorism", including on Russian forces on Ukrainian soil.

Where's your outrage against them?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
For a guy who claims to be independently minded, you seem to be doing a good job of "carrying the water" for the RU MOD.

"Fighting to the last Ukrainian"
"Zelensky telling NATO to fight for him"
"Zelensky is delusional"
"Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war"

etc etc.

Why dont we examine these points in turn ?

"Fighting to the last Ukrainian" : a common trope pushed by conspiracy nuts, and Kremlin propagandists. Someone the "west" is forcing Ukraine to continue to fight, against their collective will. Reality: If Ukraine didnt want to fight, they wouldnt be fighting. The recent increase (by poll) for a negotiated end to the war is not surprising, but certainly does not indicate a desire to surrender.

"Zelensky telling NATO to fight for him": Zelensky is doing his job as a politician. He is vigorously asking for help and support. This should surprise no one. A serious western intervention would likely force Putin into a cease-fire.

"Zelensky is delusional": For what, not surrendering ? For asking for help ? For planning for future military purchases ? The future purchase of Grippen will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, but shows a long term NATO commitment to UK. Its a political statement, not a military one.

"Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war": "western" media may be accentuating the positive (from UK standpoint), but certainly is not as delusional as the RU point of view. If you want to protest biased media, do it in RU.
Did I claim "to be independently minded"? I did claim, at least to a friend of mine, to be "on the side of reality".

"The British Empire will fight to the last French soldier", 1940. I was using an historical reference. Then, not really. Zelenski is quite happy to keep himself "in the fight", after Robotine, after Kursk and for the next 3 years (talking to Tusk). To achieve what exactly, that is what I wonder. After Robotine and Kursk, he is going to get what?
Still, do we know what lullabies was Boris singing in Turkey? A very long time ago?
Surrender, who used that word? You seem to create your own narrative. Try: Instead of keeping Ukraine in the fight, let's bribe Russia (no-NATO, to begin with) and Ukraine and end this war. The reality is that Ukraine lost, Vae victis!

Zelenski is a delusional beggar, and he was called to attention about it. Telling NATO is not asking for help, and we have seen the result. He is taking whatever he is given, whenever he is given.
"A serious western intervention". Are you kidding now? WW3? For this war? Let's play escalation and see what happens... This is not our war, as Georgia wasn't, not even Iraq was; even if NATO interests may have something to do with it.
A serious intervention, no more money, can force Zelenski into a cease-fire too. Do you consider that intervention more difficult? Costing more Ukrainian lives?
A long term possible Swedish business commitment, I would say.

We agree, using different words: Western media (not only UK) is selling a fairy tale; I don't live in Russia, why should I?
We disagree, I don't know how biased Russian media POV is, I do know western is; a lot. I have been posting French, Spanish and English examples.
My educated guess would be that, like in every war, Russian and Ukraine are selling propaganda.

Wait...
You mean UK as Ukraine (UKR)?


Edit.
"Was telling NATO". I haven't been mentioning it anymore because, ultimately, he realized that it was not going to happen, or someone made him get the point, and he stopped doing it. I think he still tried to tell Trump what to do, but I could be wrong.
 
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Hoover

Member
Zelenski is a delusional beggar, and he was called to attention about it.
Maybe I misunderstood your humor, but I am quite horriefied about you dusgusting behavior.
Selesnkij is the democratic elected president of a western oriented democracy. Ukraine neither started the war nor threatend Russia.
The Ukraine handed over their nuclear weapons on pressure of the USA and was given ... nothing for safety support. Of course he tries getting any help and military support. And yes, both parties are sell their propganda. But Russia does is to justify their war of terror against the Ukraine, and to tell the world, that they are winning their 3 days military special idioty for neralry 4 years now, and the Ukraine tries to preserve the publics opinion, that an and of the war without surrender and loss of the Urkaines souverignity is still possible.

I am sorry for harsh words following, but your opinion is one sided, Russian oriented support of the war.

The reality is that Ukraine lost
It is lost when the UA supporters stop the support. Currently the Ukrane is far far away from recapture the unrightful occopied teritory, but Russia is also far away of winning the war in terms of the Russian goals of the war.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
We don't know exactly what he said. It's not a direct quote,

And what was he referring to, & in what context, re. the ECHR? And what exactly did he say? The ECHR is inconvenient for Viktor Orban, for example - but that doesn't mean that Tusk approves.
"Tusk said Ukraine had the right to attack Russian-linked targets anywhere in Europe after a Warsaw court blocked a German request earlier this month to extradite a Ukrainian diver accused by Russia of involvement in the bombing of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in 2022."
In that context, I was reading the front page of thesundaytimes.
After you click the link, the reference to the ECHR is about immigration. (Pun intended, about our principles, and sinking ships in the Caribbean.)
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Putin started this war expecting a quick, easy & cheap victory - & you call Zelensky delusional! Ditto "destiny and hubris", where Putin is pushing the idea of sacred Mother Russia engaging in a divinely blessed (the Russian Orthodox church backs it) crusade against the corrupt & rotten west. And Russian media call Ukrainian attacks on anything & everything "terrorism", including on Russian forces on Ukrainian soil.

Where's your outrage against them?
No one is calling Putin a military genius, a great leader or anything like that. Zelenski is happily loosing this war, I think he is a bloody idiot, I point that out.

Off topic.
I am not "outraged" by US killing people in the Caribbean either... Business as usual. That killing is faraway too, as far as Ukraine, unless vikingatespam does something about it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Was it a shortage of funds or lack of planning and possible corruption?
I haven't extensively studied the issue so it's hard to say confidently what exactly it was. A little bit of all 3 I suspect.

Selesnkij is the democratic elected president of a western oriented democracy.
You're assuming facts not in evidence. Ukraine's political space was heavily "cleaned up" by Poroshenko and then again by Zelenski, including banning political parties with... inconvenient viewpoints. Ukraine has a long list of banned books and banned films, and heavily censors many viewpoints. In a country where a president widely perceived to be pro-Russian won the last elections before Poroshenko, any part that can be remotely regarded as pro-Russian (even if they really aren't) is banned. This is clearly a substantive attack on democracy, an attempt to deny a large chunk of Ukraine's population their preferred policy choices. At best Ukraine can be regarded as a "managed democracy" not dissimilar to Russia in the '00s. At worst is steadily heading towards authoritarianism. Even pro-western liberal parties can get shut down if they take a stance or talk about things that the people in power don't like.

So this wasn't aimed at me, but some of these points are interesting and I'm going to throw in my opinion on these.

"Fighting to the last Ukrainian" : a common trope pushed by conspiracy nuts, and Kremlin propagandists. Someone the "west" is forcing Ukraine to continue to fight, against their collective will. Reality: If Ukraine didnt want to fight, they wouldnt be fighting. The recent increase (by poll) for a negotiated end to the war is not surprising, but certainly does not indicate a desire to surrender.
This is a really interesting one. The version of this I usually encounter is less about someone "forcing" Ukraine and more about that this is in the best interests of the west and NATO. What makes it so interesting is that the actual views of Ukrainians on this subject appear to be almost schizophrenic. They're generally against ceding territory to Russia, and certainly the overwhelming majority don't want to live under Putin. But at the same time Ukrainians don't want the mobilization, and aren't willing to go and fight. Ukraine's desertion rates are off the charts and recruitment seems to be done primarily by press gangs roaming the streets. Ukraine as an institutional actor and certainly Ukrainian leadership wants to fight. Ukraine's population doesn't want to give up territory or live under Putin. But do ordinary Ukrainians want to fight? I think the answer is a definite no.

"Zelensky telling NATO to fight for him": Zelensky is doing his job as a politician. He is vigorously asking for help and support. This should surprise no one. A serious western intervention would likely force Putin into a cease-fire.
Ok... so you're saying he's correct? Zelensky is telling NATO to fight for him? Personally I'm not sure I agree with that statement myself. While I'm sure Zelensky would be very happy if Ukraine could sit out the war while NATO recaptures territory for them, this isn't a realistic scenario even among the most pro-Ukrainian circles. What I think Zelensky is asking for is NATO forces to act as allies with Ukrainian forces doing much of the heavy lifting. This is a scenario that seems more credible, but I don't think there is wide support for this in EU/NATO countries. The debate about inserting a "peacekeeping" and now a "stabilization" force into western Ukraine highlights this. Many countries are openly opting out, and the rest are apparently only willing to come in after the fighting ends. I have also read some things that suggest they might have been willing to come in as is if the US could guarantee Article 5 protection for those forces were Russia to target them, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. I think it's fairly unlikely NATO will fight this war directly.

"Zelensky is delusional": For what, not surrendering ? For asking for help ? For planning for future military purchases ? The future purchase of Grippen will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, but shows a long term NATO commitment to UK. Its a political statement, not a military one.
Zelensky's exact state of mind is unclear. What we do know is that he's consistently and in many cases obviously dishonest. It's very hard to know if he really believes, for example, that Ukraine has the tiny KIA numbers he's quoted in the past, or if he's intentionally repeating propaganda. Some have speculated that he's being insulated from the reality of the situation on the front lines. It's hard to be clear on this. He might be delusional if he genuinely believes the bulk of Ukraine's propaganda, but personally I find this unlikely. He's a politician.

"Western media is selling a fairy tale version of this war": "western" media may be accentuating the positive (from UK standpoint), but certainly is not as delusional as the RU point of view. If you want to protest biased media, do it in RU.
Two wrongs don't make a right. Russian propaganda is sillier and often more biased. But the common western narratives about the war in Ukraine have been garbage since the start. Personally I would regard most Russian official and semi-official media sources are worthless in their entirety. But large media outlets in the west are similarly useless. They can usually get most of the basic facts correct, in so far as they engage in factual reporting at all. But the omissions mean if your primary information diet comes from there, you will end up with a thoroughly fictional version of this war in your mind. And that's assuming you disregard the analysis which is often just a narrative being presented under the guise of analysis.
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
Maybe I misunderstood your humor, but I am quite horriefied about you dusgusting behavior.
Selesnkij is the democratic elected president of a western oriented democracy. Ukraine neither started the war nor threatend Russia.
The Ukraine handed over their nuclear weapons on pressure of the USA and was given ... nothing for safety support. Of course he tries getting any help and military support. And yes, both parties are sell their propganda. But Russia does is to justify their war of terror against the Ukraine, and to tell the world, that they are winning their 3 days military special idioty for neralry 4 years now, and the Ukraine tries to preserve the publics opinion, that an and of the war without surrender and loss of the Urkaines souverignity is still possible.

I am sorry for harsh words following, but your opinion is one sided, Russian oriented support of the war.


It is lost when the UA supporters stop the support. Currently the Ukrane is far far away from recapture the unrightful occopied teritory, but Russia is also far away of winning the war in terms of the Russian goals of the war.
You can read whatever you want in what I post (or in my style), but you are mistaken.
I see a lot of high horses around, probably, I am, in part, just reacting against that. (The insistence on "Russia started the war" for example. Yes, we all know that, so? Israel started the war in 1967, Egypt in 1973, so?)

Russia and Ukraine are selling propaganda, as they should.
We... We have our own interests, we don't insist in that foreign countries are paying for half the Ukrainian budget, that is the reality and we (western media) obviate a good part of the reality for our own interests; and a very good part of everything else that is happening in the world right now; and of History too.
I don't think we are doing that for Ukraine but against Russia.

Off topic, again.
We are not playing the Great Game any more, but empires still have their interests. I read about the Crimea War (1854), I am extremely suspicious about our support for Ukraine. A non-NATO Ukraine, Russia is acting in its own interests, like every country does.
Disgusted? What, about Sparta or about Athens? The Roman Empire or the Carthaginian Republic? The Hittites or the Egyptians? Pointless...
Actually, I feel (superficially) "disgusted" by (their hypocrisy) the Allies in WW2 (Czechoslovakia ethnic cleansing of Germans after WW2, for example), the Spanish Civil War (and what they try to keep selling about it, specially in Spain) and the situation in Northern Ireland (Ireland/NI and the British Empire/UK; happy coincidence, another Western Democracy.)
 

crest

Member
Was it a shortage of funds or lack of planning and possible corruption?
Most likely a combination of them all I would even toss in basic government negligence as I'm sure some locations are basically forgotten about unless there is a good reason to remember them. Kinda like a don't ask don't tell policy for government scrutiny
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Putin started this war expecting a quick, easy & cheap victory - & you call Zelensky delusional! Ditto "destiny and hubris", where Putin is pushing the idea of sacred Mother Russia engaging in a divinely blessed (the Russian Orthodox church backs it) crusade against the corrupt & rotten west. And Russian media call Ukrainian attacks on anything & everything "terrorism", including on Russian forces on Ukrainian soil.

Where's your outrage against them?
Putin likely exists in an information bubble. I think it's fair to say that Putin was delusional about the situation on the ground in Ukraine in '22 and remained that way for quite some time. Russia didn't give this war the consideration is required until the fall of '22 with General Surovikin and the painful decisions that had to be made after defeat in Kharkov region, and the withdrawal from right shore Kherson region. This war in many ways has exposed the problems of Russian government apparatus, especially the force-wielding portions of it. Some of them are being addressed, and some aren't. But in general criticizing Putin in the western information space is less meaningful. Few people generally have a positive opinion of him. Criticizing Zelensky matters because many do have a positive opinion of him, often based on narratives that aren't exactly trustworthy.

No one is calling Putin a military genius, a great leader or anything like that. Zelenski is happily loosing this war, I think he is a bloody idiot, I point that out.

Off topic.
I am not "outraged" by US killing people in the Caribbean either... Business as usual. That killing is faraway too, as far as Ukraine, unless vikingatespam does something about it.
To be fair Russian propaganda often present an implied picture of competence of the Russian government. This competence is sometimes true, but often not. Some living in Russia might argue usually not. And we do have the strange contradiction where Russia handled their involvement in Syria fairly well, but handled their involvement in Ukraine very poorly.

EDIT: Well here we are, just talking about propaganda and information bubbles, and here we have two announcements from Russian official sources claiming encirclement of Ukrainian units in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk areas. Of course neither appears to be true. In Kupyansk the encirclement claimed talks about the crossing south of town, i.e. Kupyansk-Uzlovoy which is definitely under Ukrainian control. There are Russian penetrations to Kurilovka, the village immediately east of it, but even that isn't firm Russian control. To top if off a Ukrainian counter-attack north of Kupyansk recently threatened Russian logistics, though it seems to have not actually cut them. In Pokrovsk there is clearly a way out for units from the cauldron. Logistics are bad, and vehicles probably can't get through but no actual encirclement is in place. Here Russia is claiming 31 btlns in Pokrovsk and 18 btlns in Kupyansk encircled. And of course in reality it's highly unlikely whole btlns would be present, instead with the chaos of the battlefield and low troops densities we're likely talking elements of units rather than entire units present in an area. The dead giveaway that no large scale encirclement took place will be when we don't see photos of large numbers of Ukrainian POWs. I encourage anyone interested in what that looks like to scroll back to this thread talking about the fall of Mariupol' and the footage that emerged when a total of iirc ~1800 Ukrainian service members ended up surrendering, which is maybe 6 Soviet-style btlns with some losses.

It's curious that this is even being reported given that Russia has very real successes in both areas that could be talked about in a credible manner. At the end of the day the Pokrovsk conurbation is definitely about to fall. Russia has taken Rodinskoe and has both large refuse mounds north-east of Mirnograd. In Pokrovsk itself Russia has ~half the town and the road to Grishino, meaning there is technically one road open out but it's within easy Russian reach. Even colonelcassad with his very pro-Russian stance acknowledges that this is operational encirclement but physically the cauldron is still open.

 
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rsemmes

Active Member
To be fair Russian propaganda often present an implied picture of competence of the Russian government.
Sorry, I meant in this forum.
I am not going to call Putin a hero and I think it's just ridiculous to call Zelenski that.
Hitler and Stalin are still considered as such for some people; and Paquito, for that matter.

(A reference to the SCW and one of the traitors who joined the coup.)
 
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