The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[personaldesas]

Did I claim "to be independently minded"? I did claim, at least to a friend of mine, to be "on the side of reality".

Everyone thinks they’re on the side of reality, almost by definition. The real difference is whether one can even consider that their own perception might be wrong. People who can’t do that aren’t usually very insightful, worth debating or listening to.

 

[Hoover]

Would you asses that the economist has it more or less right in calling Ukraine a “Hybrid Regime”?

The Economist Democracy Index - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A country at war is a very special point of view. Most democratic states have laws which restrict the freedom. Ukraine is not an exemplary flawless democracy, it has many problems in terms of corruption, oligarchy etc, but it is the most democratic state of all former Soviet republics behind the Moldavia and the Baltic states.

If the Ukraine is losing the war, it will not becoming a better demoracy.

 

[rsemmes]

rsemmes’s style is clearly provocative and polemical, more commentary than analysis. That’s fair enough. If it’s not your thing, you can always just ignore it. But there is no need to get all so worked up about it.

Or, I cannot obviate hypocrisy.
Every time Ukraine kills women and children is collateral damage, every time Russia kills women and children is a war crime (every time we kill women and children is "human shields used by the terrorists"); I cannot swallow that.

 

[rsemmes]

Everyone thinks they’re on the side of reality, almost by definition. The real difference is whether one can even consider that their own perception might be wrong. People who can’t do that aren’t usually very insightful, worth debating or listening to.

I don't think Zelenski is.
Ukraine (in broad terms) has no money, no weapons and no soldiers. Conditions (terms for a Peace Agreement) were better in Istanbul than now, in three years time they will be worse. There is nothing (to improve the terms) that Ukraine can do about it.
I cannot read any other reality.

 

[rsemmes]

Im not really sure how I can convince Putin to go home. Maybe a sternly worded letter to the UN ?

Unless you start (WW3) escalation. You don't know Russia's reaction, you don't know how we will react.
That would be a closer war.

 

[Redshift]

rsemmes’s style is clearly provocative and polemical, more commentary than analysis. That’s fair enough. If it’s not your thing, you can always just ignore it. But there is no need to get all so worked up about it.

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

 

[rsemmes]

I imagine that line was Nazi propaganda at the time. Thank you for drawing the parallel to current RU.
Achieve ? Not be a RU puppet state. Not be anchored to Putin. Is this surprising ?
I suspect we would all be better off if Putin choked to death on a ham sandwich tomorrow.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/western-leaders-stopped-ukraine-from-a-peace-agreement-with-russia/

RU-MOD talking points.
What do you call it when Putin wants Zelensky out of office, UKR disarmed, and promise not to enter an alliance that would help defend it from Russia ? I call it Czechoslovakia 1938.
Lost ? Is UKR a free state at this time ? A UKR victory looks much different that a RU victory.
Sadly, the reality is that both sides are losing. Who is losing more ? Well, that I cannot say. RU can advance slowly at this time, and spend blood and money while its economy comes under ever more serious strain.
Thank you Vladimir Solovyov/rsemmes. More talking points from the Kremlin.
Zelensky is doing EXACTLY what he should be doing - asking for help. Its his job.
Intervention could mean many things, not just boots on the ground. How about the US sends UKR 100 Tomahawks, and UKR uses them to wipe 25% of RU refining capacity off the map ? No boots on the ground, no escalation (UKR already has cruise missiles).
Thank you Sergey Lavrov for once again fanning the fears of WW3, which only RU pushes. Yet all the while, it is RU who escalates. Who brought North Korean troops into this conflict ? Who is giving North Korea support and technology ? Who has instituted airspace violations, and a sabotage campaign in Europe ?
Let me get this straight ? Ukraine is NOT Russias war ? Really ? You can say this with a straight face ?
Sure, while fulfilling the maximalist RU demands. = Surrender.
Oh, here we go again, the sad violin sounds of someone pretending to care about UKR lives. Oh, how weepy ! So many tears ! Putin LOVES Ukraine ! He shows it every night with hundred of drones and missiles !
If Ukraine decides to stop fighting tomorrow, then so be it. Done. Over. Its up to them.
Of course both sides are selling a line of shit. I dont believe RU MOD any more than UKR MOD releases.

"I imagine that line..."
French, actually. But more from a soldier's perspective than anything else, not that the French Empire was happy with the British Empire. (Even less later on, but we all know that.)

"A Russian puppet..."
I cannot remember that line from Istanbul.
I'll try to use more words... What can Ukraine achieve to get a better position at the negotiating table?
Nothing.
We shouldn't confuse the initial statements with the actual terms of a peace agreement. (Use this for "surrender" too.)
Off topic.
Czechoslovakia in 1938 (Teschen?) or ethnic cleansing in 1945?

"Who is losing more?"
The not-under-strain half of Ukrainian economy?

"...asking for help."
Telling Trump what to do, in the Whitehouse. It seems that we disagree in that one.

"Intervention could mean many things..."
Reaction could mean many things. Why not 1.000 Tomahawks (Made-in-Ukraine)? Why not 75%? What can Ukraine do?
Nothing.

"Ukraine is NOT Russia's war?..."
I have a problem here.
Me: 'This is not our war '. Our, I live in UK, you can read NATO or EU/Western Europe. But, how can you read 'Russia'?
('We have a nuclear sub off your shore". Trump, not Lavrov. Yes, I know. This is not about submarines sailing tweeter.)

"Surrender..."
Again? It seems that you like easy lines. Again, I cannot remember that word from the Istanbul negotiations.

"...someone pretending".
I don't pretend, I don't care. (As I didn't care about how many children US killed in Panama or the British and French Empires in Suez.) Just another footnote in History. Now...
You were talking about a "serious intervention", it doesn't has to be even that serious to sit Zelenski at the table. That is a another possibility, again, it doesn't mean (your favourite word) surrender. The terms, now, will be harsher, we have to offer Russia a bigger carrot (than in Istanbul); Zelenski will take whatever we give because he depends on us, not on Russia.
Unless, of course, we are more interested in this war against Russia going on; to the last Ukrainian soldier.

"...both sides are selling a line..."
As I was saying, that (Ukrainian) is the line that Western Media is selling.
(We agree, again.)

 

[rsemmes]

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

Nothing personal.
I think that is what he is saying, but I am sure he will explain it with more words. (Cryptic, I've been called.)

 

[Hoover]

I don't think Zelenski is.
Ukraine (in broad terms) has no money, no weapons and no soldiers. Conditions (terms for a Peace Agreement) were better in Istanbul than now, in three years time they will be worse. There is nothing (to improve the terms) that Ukraine can do about it.
I cannot read any other reality.

Your reality? Russia was not able to beat Ukraine during the last 3.5 years, and yes, Ukraine depends on military aid from his supporters. Sp what? The Russians depends on the military aid from China, North Korea and Iran. And Istanbul was a show. Nobody gave the Urkaine any guarantees, and it is proofed that Russia don´t care about any treaties with the Ukraine.
The Ukraine puts Russia under great pressure with their attacks an the oil and gas industrie. They can do something to change the terms.

 

[rsemmes]

By the way...
The word "outrage" has been used, the international outrage about Ukraine blowing up a Russian dam? The outrage in Western Media? rtve has time to mention those balloons in Lithuania... The dam, didn't happen.

Edit.
More exactly: "The Russian Governor claims..."

 

[rsemmes]

Your reality? Russia was not able to beat Ukraine during the last 3.5 years, and yes, Ukraine depends on military aid from his supporters. Sp what? The Russians depends on the military aid from China, North Korea and Iran. And Istanbul was a show. Nobody gave the Urkaine any guarantees, and it is proofed that Russia don´t care about any treaties with the Ukraine.
The Ukraine puts Russia under great pressure with their attacks an the oil and gas industrie. They can do something to change the terms.

Maybe, you have noticed that I didn't mention how effective/ineffective Russia is and that, doesn't change the facts about Ukraine.
I think that you are using a bit too much of imagination when you say that "Russians depends on the military aid...", that is not what we read. "It is proof...", I think is just another rushed conclusion. There never was a final text because there never was an agreement in Istanbul.

If Ukraine (it doesn't have that capability) is able to put pressure... (I think Ukraine is annoying Russia, not "putting pressure", what, in itself, helps Russia in its fight against Ukraine. The easy line: Look at what they are doing to us!) That is a good point, another point would be what is Russia going to do under that pressure against Ukraine. Russia has the bigger guns, any insight into that?

 

[Hoover]

Maybe, you have noticed that I didn't mention how effective/ineffective Russia is and that, doesn't change the facts about Ukraine.
I think that you are using a bit too much of imagination when you say that "Russians depends on the military aid...", that is not what we read. "It is proof...", I think is just another rushed conclusion. There never was a final text because there never was an agreement in Istanbul.

If Ukraine (it doesn't have that capability) is able to put pressure... (I think Ukraine is annoying Russia, not "putting pressure", what, in itself, helps Russia in its fight against Ukraine. The easy line: Look at what they are doing to us!) That is a good point, another point would be what is Russia going to do under that pressure against Ukraine. Russia has the bigger guns, any insight into that?

You contradict yourself. Of course it is important to see of Russia ist effective/ineffective when you are compoaring it to Ukraine. And you want seriously claim, that Russia not depends on Chinese imports on military electronics etc? Really? And you think, that the Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oli/gas infrastructure is only "annoying" Russia? Really?

You are talking about imagination?

 

[personaldesas]

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

No

 

[personaldesas]

A country at war is a very special point of view. Most democratic states have laws which restrict the freedom. Ukraine is not an exemplary flawless democracy, it has many problems in terms of corruption, oligarchy etc, but it is the most democratic state of all former Soviet republics behind the Moldavia and the Baltic states.

If the Ukraine is losing the war, it will not becoming a better demoracy.

I don’t disagree, and of course, any democratic ambitions aren’t helped by being invaded by an autocratic state, or in the worst cased, occupied by a foreign one.
That said, accurately assessing the current state of democracy still matters, even if we don't like the result. It shows what progress is needed and whether any is actually being made. From what I can tell, major parts of the Ukrainian population wants stronger democratic elements and some even a Western orientation, but that doesn’t erase the real problems that still need to be addressed.

 

[rsemmes]

No

Pity... I liked "cynical".
And what else can I be... while reading Human History.

 

[Feanor]

Would you asses that the economist has it more or less right in calling Ukraine a “Hybrid Regime”?

The Economist Democracy Index - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A very interesting index. I would have to study it more to respond in detail but at a glance, admittedly only a few minutes long, it looks about right to me.

 

[rsemmes]

You contradict yourself. Of course it is important to see of Russia ist effective/ineffective when you are compoaring it to Ukraine. And you want seriously claim, that Russia not depends on Chinese imports on military electronics etc? Really? And you think, that the Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oli/gas infrastructure is only "annoying" Russia? Really?
You are talking about imagination?

Let's compare then... even when I am starting to think that the next one is going to be about pig-farms.

Ukraine is ineffective, it keeps losing ground.
I was talking about money, weapons and soldiers. Now, it's about electronics. Is Ukraine producing 100% of its own electronics? Nothing from outside, no foreign investment to produce them?
Yes, let's remove all foreign support for both countries...
Well, Ukraine has to declare bankruptcy because it doesn't have money for its own budget. Ukraine has to go to the market for money, what interests is going to pay for those loans? Who is willing to loan money to Ukraine? Remember, no foreign support, so no guaranties for those loans.
Do Ukrainian soldiers go without food or without pay? Doctors without pay? Are they going to start buying medical supplies and drugs, from US, at market price? Is Ukraine going to expel out of the country every citizen who gets a pension?
(I do vaguely remember something about a change in Ukrainian law about the property of the land, something like now is legal for another country to own Ukrainian soil.)
So, China starts buying Ukrainian wheatfields because, remember, China is not supporting Russia and Ukraine needs money; someone took a chunk of Ukrainian minerals already. I see a great future for an Ukraine that has already lost a 20% of its territory.
How much energy can Ukraine still produce? What about its industrial production, with only the raw materials it can buy at market price? No support means... no sanctions. I mean, only those sanctions imposed by Ukraine on Russia. How long do you think Russian economy can survive those Ukrainian sanctions?
What ammo is Ukraine producing with Ukrainian resources and Ukrainian investment? What %? Because now, that is all that it has. Spare parts for F-16? No. For Bradleys, Leopards... No. Only for whatever Soviet weapons it had still in use and (limited) industrial support for it; everything else, market price. Unless Russia offers a better price for it; remember, no sanctions.

What other reality do you want to compare? After 3 years, does Ukraine still have any industrial capacity? Well, Russia is bigger.
When Russia is going to run out of (Russian-produced) missiles or when will Ukraine run out of everything without foreign support? Ukraine's refinery capacity remining to the Russian one? Oil in-country? How many Ukrainian produced missiles does Ukraine need to reduce Russian capacity by 50%?
Yes, annoying.

 

[Feanor]

I don’t disagree, and of course, any democratic ambitions aren’t helped by being invaded by an autocratic state, or in the worst cased, occupied by a foreign one.
That said, accurately assessing the current state of democracy still matters, even if we don't like the result. It shows what progress is needed and whether any is actually being made. From what I can tell, major parts of the Ukrainian population wants stronger democratic elements and some even a Western orientation, but that doesn’t erase the real problems that still need to be addressed.

I suspect the majority of Ukraine's pre-war population and current population want stronger democratic elements. I suspect this is also true of pre-'14 Ukraine. On some level the people who stood at the Maydan and anti-Maydan wanted the same things - more democratic elements. I think that before this war, after '14, Ukraine was firmly set on a course to becoming a steadily more authoritarian oligarchy. This war changes things quite a bit and it might actually provide Ukraine the impetus for a fundamental change of course. This war has also greatly intensified Ukraine's demographic crisis, and it remains to be seen how Ukraine resolves it (if Ukraine resolves it?). Also a lot depends on what territories Ukraine retains after the war. In a way losing many Russian-ethnic heavy regions, where even the Ukrainian population is russified, would make it much easier for Ukraine to move westward. You would no longer have the pendulum swings of national politics between leaders like Kravchuk and Kuchma, Yuschenko and Yanukovich. You could get something close to a concensus or at least a firm majority support for a westward course. A big question is, where will this line be?

I also wonder if Russia realizes they've almost certainly lost whatever parts of Ukraine they don't conquer. Whatever culture ties and soft power Russia had in Ukraine pre-war will be gone. Ukraine's government will stamp it out thoroughly regardless of what the population wants and regardless of what the treaties say. Those areas will be firmly hostile to Russia moving forward. Unless of course we see a total defeat and a crash of the current course set by Ukrainian elites, but I think this is unlikely.

On a note about the actual fighting, it appears I was mistaken about the salient north of Mirnograd. Ukraine has just overrun large chunks of it with frontal attacks, after many weeks of failing to cut the base of the salient. It's very strange that this comes shortly after Russia has effectively opened logistics into the salient and brought in new units. But at point Ukraine has retaken the areas south-west of Kucherov Yar, Novoe Shakhovoe, Zatyshok, and Sukhetskoe. Russian forces are apparently still in Dorozhnoe and Nikanorovka, and of course Russia now holds all of Rodinskoe and the refuse mound east of it. Russia is still making progress inside Shakhovoe itself. It remains to be seen if Ukraine can hold these areas, but it's the biggest Ukrainian counter-attack in this area, in terms of gains. It will be ironic if Ukraine manages to eliminate the salient entirely just as it loses all of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, where the situation continues to deteriorate with Russian troops now controlling over half of Pokrovsk, contesting much of the rest, and having multiple footholds in Mirnograd from several directions.