The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

It seems that RUSI is not as optimistic as IISS.

The Kremlin can Afford the Luxury of a Second Anti-NATO Front

Russia's grey-zone warfare against Europe comes at a fraction of the cost of the conflict in Ukraine.

www.rusi.org

"The Russian economy is a mess – as Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) assessments show. And BOFIT has been tracking the Russian economy for 30 years.
...
Still, the snag is that this day of reckoning for the Russian economy is still rather a long way off. Of itself, the economy could stagger on like this for 3-5 years. Russia is likely to remain an economy in decline judged by almost any calculus, except in its ability to wage war."

Enough Ukrainians for those 5 years? Do we want to keep paying the bill for those 5 years? Maybe US doesn't.
I am also a bit skeptical about one little detail: Russia has suffered ~1.400.000 losses?

 

[Feanor]

It seems that RUSI is not as optimistic as IISS.

The Kremlin can Afford the Luxury of a Second Anti-NATO Front

Russia's grey-zone warfare against Europe comes at a fraction of the cost of the conflict in Ukraine.

www.rusi.org

"The Russian economy is a mess – as Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) assessments show. And BOFIT has been tracking the Russian economy for 30 years.
...
Still, the snag is that this day of reckoning for the Russian economy is still rather a long way off. Of itself, the economy could stagger on like this for 3-5 years. Russia is likely to remain an economy in decline judged by almost any calculus, except in its ability to wage war."

Enough Ukrainians for those 5 years? Do we want to keep paying the bill for those 5 years? Maybe US doesn't.
I am also a bit skeptical about one little detail: Russia has suffered ~1.400.000 losses?

I'm also suspicious of those casualty figures, and of the part where they say a 8-9% budget deficit would be all that bad. I also have to wonder if their GDP data includes economic activities in annexed areas, many of which are economically productive and areas like Donetsk, Lugansk, and Crimea definitely provide recruits for the war.

 

[swerve]

Is that official complaining about China claiming to be neutral?
Are you missing something?

Complaining about inconsistency between what China claims & what it does, of course.

 

[Hoover]

Again, not to that Ukrainian official. He is not complaining about that either.

Oh, you are only referring to THAT Ukrainian official in THIS special case.

I think that doesn´t solve the problem that China is supporting the aggressor Russia and the "western world" (the Ukraine supporters) has to decide how to cope with China in that manner. Snctions, accusing at the UN.... China is way too important and to powerful of being sanctioned, so "the west" will ignore it, like being ignored before.

 

[Aleks.ov]

On the question of what systematic strikes against Ukraine's infrastructure look like. Just last night, 14 HPPs, CHPPs, and TPPs were subjected to strikes. The capital is without electricity, emergency shutdowns across the country.

 

[rsemmes]

Oh, you are only referring to THAT Ukrainian official in THIS special case.
I think that doesn´t solve the problem that China is supporting the aggressor Russia and the "western world" (the Ukraine supporters) has to decide how to cope with China in that manner. Snctions, accusing at the UN.... China is way too important and to powerful of being sanctioned, so "the west" will ignore it, like being ignored before.

There is no problem to solve.
As you are saying, the only thing that matters is who is doing it, not what is being done. Welcome to History/realpolitik.

 

[rsemmes]

Complaining about inconsistency between what China claims & what it does, of course.

Actually, not even "complaining", he just informed Ukrinform about the fact. I guess he is not happy about that fact.

I am not trying to start any discussion about "neutrality", "armed neutrality", "direct participation" or providing the weapons, the targeting but not pushing the button. He kindly informed Ukrinform that China is doing for Russia (less) than what NATO is doing for Ukraine, without moral considerations, because, as @Hoover said, there is no problem; more exactly, the problem will be ignored.
We ignore a few things, don't we?

 

[Hoover]

There is no problem to solve.
As you are saying, the only thing that matters is who is doing it, not what is being done. Welcome to History/realpolitik.

Y
Of course it is important who is doing it for whom. If a country who claimes being neutral in a war is supporting the side of the illegal aggressor (Russia in the case you missed that, too) it is a problem for the supporter of the defending country.
China is the most important supplier of items for the Russian war industrie. And if the west will end the war, it would be helpful to dussuade China to help Russia. And yes, the West is too weak to going into conflict with China.
Welcome in realpolitik.